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Shocking Irish election results so far: beating the 2 party system

mcjmetroid

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Now I know we never discuss Irish politics because it doesn't affect anyone here really but I'd like to get your take on this because this is significant.

I'll post an outsider article to give you all a bit of a headstart for those that don't know.

DUBLIN — Sinn Fein, a leftist party long ostracized from Irish politics over its ties to sectarian violence, won the popular vote and seized its largest-ever share of parliamentary seats in the country’s national elections this weekend, according to results released on Sunday.

The vote loosened a 90-year stranglehold on power by two center-right parties in Ireland and put Sinn Fein on the doorstep of joining a coalition government, a remarkable rebuke to a political establishment that tried to paint it as aberrant and unelectable throughout the campaign.

Defying a reputation for extreme risk aversion, Irish voters ignored those warnings.

They gave Sinn Fein more votes than Ireland’s prime minister, Leo Varadkar, in his Dublin district, though Ireland’s system of vote allocation allowed Mr. Varadkar to hold onto his parliamentary seat.
More info here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/world/europe/ireland-election-sinn-fein.html

Sein Finn have basically broken the 2 party system. The 2 largest parties in Ireland have never not had their party win and have completed discounted a coilition with Sinn Fein who they said as "not a normal party". They didn't even invite their leader to the TV broadcast networks main debate. That completely backfired.

So why the change here in my opinion?
1: People in Ireland wanted change which is fairly usual for an election
2: the still underestimated power of social media.
3: not inviting the leader of Sinn Fein to the major tv debate for weeks
4: both the top parties announcing they would never go into coalition with Sinn Fein.
5: Sinn Fein have promised a referendum for a United Ireland down the line.. which ahh I don't know.

The results aren't over yet but it's looking like like one of the bigger 2 parties will have to eat their own words and go into coalition with Sinn Fein because of the lack of seats.

This is as example of breaking the 2 party system.
 

mcjmetroid

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I don't know anything about Irish politics, but couldn't the two centre-right parties just form a coalition with each other?
It's all up in the air at the moment but it's likely though would likely end up being a disaster for them because the popular 1st preference vote clearly went to Sinn Fein.
 

Sakura

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It's all up in the air at the moment but it's likely though would likely end up being a disaster for them because the popular 1st preference vote clearly went to Sinn Fein.
According to wikipedia though, this Sinn Fein party got 24.5% of the popular vote, while the other two parties got 22.2 and 20.9. It's not a huge difference, and the combined support of the centre-right would be 43% to Sinn Fein's 24.5%. Again though, I don't know much about Irish politics, so maybe the two centre-right parties actually differ quite a bit and supporters wouldn't want a coalition between them.
How does Irish parliament work anyway? Sinn Fein isn't going to get a majority with only 24.5% of the vote, they won't even have a strong minority. Couldn't the other parties just force a new election in a year or two?
 
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mcjmetroid

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According to wikipedia though, this Sinn Fein party got 24.5% of the popular vote, while the other two parties got 22.2 and 20.9. It's not a huge difference, and the combined support of the centre-right would be 43% to Sinn Fein's 24.5%. Again though, I don't know much about Irish politics, so maybe the two centre-right parties actually differ quite a bit and supporters wouldn't want a coalition between them.
How does Irish parliament work anyway? Sinn Fein isn't going to get a majority with only 24.5% of the vote, they won't even have a strong minority. Couldn't the other parties just force a new election in a year or two?
The 2 centre right parties were in coalition this time as well so it's not impossible they would go in together again.

Unfortunately for Sinn Fein they didn't put forward enough candidates having only chosen 42 I think? Or around that number and some voting areas had no representative at all.

Whatever happens though it's a dramatic difference. Since 1922 nobody had ever got a sniff of a change.

We probably won't find out more until later today or tomorrow.
 
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mcjmetroid

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According to wikipedia though, this Sinn Fein party got 24.5% of the popular vote, while the other two parties got 22.2 and 20.9. It's not a huge difference, and the combined support of the centre-right would be 43% to Sinn Fein's 24.5%. Again though, I don't know much about Irish politics, so maybe the two centre-right parties actually differ quite a bit and supporters wouldn't want a coalition between them.
How does Irish parliament work anyway? Sinn Fein isn't going to get a majority with only 24.5% of the vote, they won't even have a strong minority. Couldn't the other parties just force a new election in a year or two?
Just getting back to you again about this. So it's currently predicted that the bit 2 centre right parties wouldn't have enough seats to form a government ( they need 80) they only have 78 total predicted. Interesting times ahead.
 

DV27

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Just getting back to you again about this. So it's currently predicted that the bit 2 centre right parties wouldn't have enough seats to form a government ( they need 80) they only have 78 total predicted. Interesting times ahead.
Sinn Fein only put 42 candidates up in this election, so there will have to be some kind of grand coalition of sorts. I believe SF have already said they would not form a coalition with the centre right parties (or it could be the other way around - sorry Im going off memory here).

EDIT: I did get it wrong. Both major Centre-Right parties have stated they outright refuse to engage with any coalition with SF. So even though they have won the most seats, they may struggle to form a government.
 
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mcjmetroid

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And to think we in the UK were worried about electing a terrorist sympathiser in Jeremy Corbyn, the Irish go one better and actually elect terrorists...
Cannot keep looking to the distant past especially when more recently the current parties have made bigger blunders to everything else.

There is a very bad hospital crisis at the moment for one where people are dying for being on trolleys too long.people are indeed fed up and are looking for anything but the main 2 parties.
 

pennythots

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congrats to the Irish and best of luck navigating through their country's difficult problems.
 

Super Mario

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Eh, not impressed. It's been done before in many other small countries. Everyone cheers because the "grass is always greener on the other side".

There will never ever be such thing as a perfect party. Someone is always going to mad, especially with all of the pandering we've done over the years. The best I can hope for is what happened, and you get someone like Trump who owns the party, not the other way around.
 

Ballthyrm

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I expect every Western democracy will lose one (or more) of its legacy parties to the ongoing culture shift. These upstart elections will become even more common. Hope the Irish seize the opportunity.
The French Socialist Party which was the equivalent of the DNC was so utterly defeated in the last French election, they might as well not exist anymore.
Ireland is following the trend here, set by the UK with Brexit and France with Macron
 
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AntiCap

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It's not really what you think. It's not extreme left by any means. It's just the way that article was written.

They're more left than were used to I guess but it's not the democrats by any means.
Honestly, the left-right dichotomy just doesn't hold up in Ireland and should not be used there. Some points to note:
  • Sinn Féin are Euroskeptic nationalists, with centred views on immigration while being somewhat more socially liberal and economically socialist than the establishment parties.
  • Our "right"-most parties have policies that include bringing in more than a million migrants in the next 20 years (in a country with less than 7 million population).
  • Our only vocal anti-abortion party are economically socialist.
 

AntiCap

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Looks like Sinn Féin didn't win the most seats after all.
Ceann Comhairle's seat wasn't won, but was automatically retained. As far as mandate goes, SF and FF are tied-first for seats won, with SF getting more of the first preference votes. Fianna Fáil have more or less acknowledged this and are leaving the field open to SF for the time being.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael more or less made up the outgoing government, and the arrangement was disastrous for both of them. Right now, it is more likely that Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil will go into government together, although even that would be kind of hard to imagine.
 
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nani17

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I voted for Sinn Féin myself.

The other two have been running the country for decades now and things have only gotten worse for the working class.

There is a housing crisis in this country meaning the banks are very unwilling to give you a loan even if you work. Plus the housing prices have sky rocketed. One TD live on TV said 350,000 should be affordable enough for most people.

Not only that where I live a one bedroom cottage costs 1000 plus a month that's just the rent. Also we have family's living in hotel's with their children. Again nothing has been done about it.

Our hospital's are over crowded people are waiting in the halls including just recently a 90 plus year old man. Yes he was left in a hall on a bed. Our national football league the FAI were involved in corruption for over several years and they claim no one knew. Yet fans having been calling for their heads for years and years.

Now the English media have been talking up the IRA terrorist are in charge like they're the next ISIS 😂😂
 
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mcjmetroid

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Ceann Comhairle's seat wasn't won, but was automatically retained. As far as mandate goes, SF and FF are tied-first for seats won, with SF getting more of the first preference votes. Fianna Fáil have more or less acknowledged this and are leaving the field open to SF for the time being.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael more or less made up the outgoing government, and the arrangement was disastrous for both of them. Right now, it is more likely that Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil will go into government together, although even that would be kind of hard to imagine.
Interesting times ahead. I will admit I'm no big expert on this subject either. I'm mostly reading up a lot of information as I go.

I did vote Sinn Fein or at least the candidate in my constituency my full thought being that a change is needed. The housing crisis and health crisis are the 2 biggest problems at the moment and Sinn Fein heavily focused on them pre-election.

Plus I think the leader of Sinn Fein Mary Lou McDonald is a very straight up speaker.
 

mcjmetroid

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I voted for Sinn Féin myself.

The other two have been running the country for decades now and things have only gotten worse for the working class.

There is a housing crisis in this country meaning the banks are very unwilling to give you a loan even if you work. Plus the housing prices have sky rocketed. One TD live on TV said 350,000 should be affordable enough for most people.

Not only that where I live a one bedroom cottage costs 1000 plus a month that's just the rent. Also we have family's living in hotel's with their children. Again nothing has been done about it.

Our hospital's are over crowded people are waiting in the halls including just recently a 90 plus year old man. Yes he was left in a hall on a bed. Our national football league the FAI were involved in corruption for over several years and they claim no one knew. Yet fans having been calling for their heads for years and years.

Now the English media have been talking up the IRA terrorist are in charge like they're the next ISIS 😂😂
Exactly man I'm in the same boat and the same thoughts!
 
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charlie_s123

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I voted for Sinn Féin myself.

The other two have been running the country for decades now and things have only gotten worse for the working class.

There is a housing crisis in this country meaning the banks are very unwilling to give you a loan even if you work. Plus the housing prices have sky rocketed. One TD live on TV said 350,000 should be affordable enough for most people.

Not only that where I live a one bedroom cottage costs 1000 plus a month that's just the rent. Also we have family's living in hotel's with their children. Again nothing has been done about it.

Our hospital's are over crowded people are waiting in the halls including just recently a 90 plus year old man. Yes he was left in a hall on a bed. Our national football league the FAI were involved in corruption for over several years and they claim no one knew. Yet fans having been calling for their heads for years and years.

Now the English media have been talking up the IRA terrorist are in charge like they're the next ISIS 😂😂
Sounds like a similar situation RE housing to what we have in Australia. Hope it works out for you guys.
 

nani17

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At this stage, Sinn Féin need to meet with others to make a coalition but it's going to be very hard to do
 

Madonis

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It's an interesting result.

I hope they can form a viable coalition and, more importantly, try to change the ways things are done for the better.
 
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