Because like the PS2 and other consoles have shown, multiple generations can cohabit for a while.
We're not getting another PS360 generation. It'll still be mostly the same architecture from now on anyway, so won't be as much of a problem to do crossgen games as in the past.
I concur with the general sentiment that 2019/2020 is the right timeframe. It will be dictated less by market conditions and more by when a disruptive technical move is possible. I expect HBM will be the driver, with whatever GPU core is current when this becomes economically feasible for another ~$400 launch.
Sony will be more open to competing bids that could involve an instruction set change. If there's a great SoC with ARM available they'll happily take advantage of it – but AMD will be eager enough to earn their business that I won't be surprised to see them keep the relationship alive. Microsoft will stick with x86 for backward compatibility regardless of what other options are on the table, unless they blend the Xbox business back into Windows and just use the brand for third-party living room hardware.
I expect to see solid state storage advance to the point where at least the most recently played title is cached on a high-speed flash device. That would make loading into 16GB+ RAM configurations more realistic than the current HDD setup. Whether the rest of the storage is also SSD or it's a hybrid SSD/HDD solution depends a lot on what changes between now and then.
With how high development costs are why would Sony push out a console anytime soon? I'm thinking 2020 at the earliest. Even then they will want to wait until whatever tech they want is available to sell for 399. They also probably want 4K adoption to go as high as possible since that will be the resolution they aim for
I think Feb 2020 to announce with nov 2020 launch as there is little point in making another 14nm console.
Assuming they both stick with AMD and are targeting a similar cost / power draw window then I think the below is roughly what we will get.
CPU: 8 core low power ryzen derivative.
GPU: GCN based 12 Tflop GPU. (FP32)
Ram: at least 64GB of some kind of HBM.
HDD: hard to say, can't see them going SSD unless storage space stagnates but not sure that there is huge demand for big mechanical laptop drives so doubt we will see much bigger than 2 TB.
2021 for both. 2019 means that PS5 games are in development right now and I don't believe that. Plus that makes the Pro total and utter bullshit. You gonna drop PS5 in 2019 why didn't you just wait 2 more years effectively. 2021 gives Pro and Scorpio both 4 years to prove their worth while allowing time for the PS4 and XB1 to hit their stride which I don't think has happened yet.
Hopefully in 2020. It would be nice that major studio get at the very least 2-3 games per gen. If they dont then this gen has been honestly a waste. Rockstar for example has yet to releases a single new game.
Since it is essentially a corporate game of chicken, there's an argument to be made for Sony choking up on the PS4 just a little to ship a PS5 that makes MS have to 32X the Scorpio or cede next generation. Sony certainly has experience in keeping past-gen systems alive as a budget option, with a third or so of PS sales after PS2 and PS2 sales after PS3; if Scorpio is indeed pre-Zen and Zen is the massive price-performance win it's being pushed as, an ideal scenario for Sony, you could see a 2019 box that handily outperforms Scorpio while coming in cheaper and being fully BC with PS4 (so a healthy PS4 ecosystem as devs target the combined base for more casual titles.).
On the other hand, they could just as easily drag the gen out until forced and then jump to ARM. At the end of the day it almost has more to do with each company's fortunes in other fields, and the career trajectories of junior upper management, than with flat tech.
I could see that happening if Ryzen gets a lot smaller in the next few years. Don't really know about the Ryzen roadmap. Currently I think the 8 core variant is much too large for console size/power requirements.
Scorpio isn't a mid-gen upgrade, it is the new Xbox console, and you can expect another one in 3 years or so. People need to let the concept of console generations die now that the Playstation and Xbox share so many architectural commonalities with gaming PCs.
I think fall 2020. If Scorpio ends up being a game changer (which I doubt) Sony will push out the PS5 earlier, which would force Microsofts hand, but I doubt they're in any rush to do so
As for specs they will have the highest quality pixels
I hope we still get another 3-4 years out of this console generation. While 2015 had some amazing games, I feel like it wasn't until th past year that devs have really become comfortable with this hardware
I hope in 8 years, with Persona 5, the ps4 JUST GOT its third must-have game. I'm still waiting for this gen to take off. The ps2 and the ps3 both took off the year after they launched, the ps4 is kind of there...
You can't react that fast in the hardware arena, and you need software on your hardware to make it sell.
Whatever timetable both are already set on for release it won't change unless the hardware isn't ready in time (PS3) or the games aren't.
The idea that Sony will move up production because of Scorpio or delay production because the PS4 is selling well is madness. We already know how long it takes to make these games, fabrication of chips has to be done well in advance etc etc.
They like a November ish launch because it rapidly expands userbase and gets lots of christmas headlines. They aren't going to have it booked in for November 2019 only to go "oh its ok lads, lol Scorpio so just hold off for now and well do it next year".
On the basis that I think Scorpio is still a Jaguar with a bigger GPU, the PS5 in say 2019 is going to be a substantial leap in CPU and GPU power over it as it'll be on Zen or whatever. So for me the question isn't really what Sony will do for the PS5. It almost looks obvious by comparison to what MS will do.
If Scorpio does come out this year and is Jaguar with more GPU, are they then also going to push for a Xbox One Two or whatever in 2019 to go with the new CPU and whatever GPU bonus's come, or are they going to wait a year and let the PS5 be the only kid in the playground with a truly next gen system for 12 months. For a brand that's only really strong in NA and the UK, waiting a year isn't exactly going to help. On the flip side, Launching 2 new machines in 2 years isn't going to sit well either.
All of this is of course out the window if somehow despite everything MS have put Zen in the Scorpio.
I expect they're already working with AMD on a Ryzen variant that's good for gaming performance and fits in the console power envelope. Jaguar was pretty much the only solution when Sony and MS were building the current consoles because it was the CPU that was available for APU semi-custom work.
I expect that Scorpio is the successor to X1, without a doubt it becomes more clear as time goes on. I can also bet that it gets pushed back from a launch this year.
EDIT: obviously people think this is an equivalent to an X1+, but it just is not positioned that way hardware wise. It is beefy enough to be considered next gen in terms of what the OG X1 was specced at.
I'm gonna say 2020 or 2021. A year ago I would have said 2019 but there are virtually no rumblings at all about a new generation (unless you count the Switch but that's assuming Nintendo cares at all about their so called non-competitors). Also I think the Pro and upcoming Scorpio will prolong the lifespan a bit.
For the PS5, I think 2020 is too late and I think it will be Fall 2019. It will be 6 years since the og ps4 came out and 3 since the pro came out which shouldn't be too soon to burn the pro buyers. If the pro didn't exist I would have said 2018.
The consoles were kinda under-powered at launch. Also, don't forget that the consoles are just dedicated gaming pcs now, and it's less likely someone like Naughty Dog can keep squeezing out more "secret" power like they did for the ps3. Last of Us part 2 will look amazing, but not that much better than Uncharted 4.
Also it will be fully backwards compatible with all ps4 games and use the same architecture, so a dev could easily port their 2019 ps4 game to the ps5. There will be less dedicated ps5 launch games and more 2019 ps4 games that look and run much better on the ps5.