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So, when do you expect PS5 and the Xbox One successor tba? And what specs?

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
I thought hbm was totally off the cards for consoles due to how power hungry it is? It's the main reason why Nvidia hasn't done anything with it yet.

You just can't have laptop level tdp and hbm. It really wouldn't shock me if they go with gddr6 or something because of it.

HBM+ is a much lower power alternative to HBM3 which is a high end equivalent. Its currently designed for lower power configurations as opposed to higher end desktop machines like HBM3 is. BOth of these are supposed to be much more efficient than HBM1 and HBM2 are.

Lol.

Seriously, do you guys really believe that a company which stripped away the optical output to save 5 Cent per console is going to implement a SSD drive? Not gonna happen. Not in a market environment where price - and the ability to reduce it down the line - are crucial.

Yes, they'll become cheaper by the day, but they'll still be much more expensive than regular ones.

I never said anything about SSD, i said HDD.

Also...i would obviously expect a stripped down cheaper unit to get rid of features to save on cost, that has nothing to do with PS5's launch unit tho
 

nekkid

It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
Will Microsoft launch a new console so quickly after the Scorpio? From the E3 presentation they made it sound like they intend for the Scorpio to be a pseudo upgrade, with it playing Xbox One games and Scorpio games but an Xbox One can't necessarily play a game suited solely for the Scorpio.

Scorpio is to XB1 what Scorpio 2 will be to Scorpio.
 

c0de

Member
And the people predicting 12-16GB RAM knows how the tech will evolve in next 4 years? Of all the things people predicted in the past, RAM size has been so hilariously wrong that I have no doubt it'll same again. Maybe not same as 2011 GAF thread that said 2GB in PS4 was a stretch, but still wrong.

It's not only about tech but also cost. For the most cases, you are fine with 16gb of ram in a computer. I did this upgrade 5 years ago when ram was cheap and this is still something you can be fine with today, for some cases it might even be too much (not really, because there is no better ram than more ram but you get what I'm saying).
We reached a certain baseline that *is* enough in an economical way. People saying 32GB of HBM2 are just posting out of hope, I guess.
The amount of RAM is not that important after a certain amount (say 8 GB of *usable* RAM for games, not the limits that XBO/PS4 have) but bandwidth will be important.
 

DavidDesu

Member
Unless Scorpio does something amazing, which I don't think it will, then I can easily see Sony holding off til 2021.

I've heard about this HBM and other technologies that sound like quite the leap, so I hope Sony just wait until they can give us all that good stuff for an affordable price. I expect backwards compatibility with ALL PS4 games (and the elusive hope of all previous console backwards compatibility as well, power shouldn't be an issue when it comes to emulating PS3 games by then...?!). I don't want to see a rushed console that just uses souped up current tech that gets leapfrogged a year later, but I'm confident Sony/Cerny know what they're doing and are planning ahead. Clearly starting a generation with the best, non gimmick laden tech for the cheapest price is the way to go. The PS brand is huge and I expect it will be a great success so long as they just keep doing that they've been doing since the tail end of the PS3 generation (i.e. making fans happy).

Oh and it better support that variable framerate in the new HDMI spec... that would be fantastic!
 

pa22word

Member
HBM+ is a much lower power alternative to HBM3 which is a high end equivalent. Its currently designed for lower power configurations as opposed to higher end desktop machines like HBM3 is. BOth of these are supposed to be much more efficient than HBM1 and HBM2 are.



I never said anything about SSD, i said HDD.

Also...i would obviously expect a stripped down cheaper unit to get rid of features to save on cost, that has nothing to do with PS5's launch unit tho

Any benches yet? Not saying I don't buy it or anything, but hbm+ would have to be extraordinarily more efficient to hit the 16-32 GB at ps4 tdp. I'd love to be wrong, but those figures from a while back from Nvidia (?) showing massive exponential leaps per GB on hbm2 were pretty damning to say the least.
 

Genio88

Member
Not anytime soon, Ps4 Pro just came out and Scorpio will follow this fall, surly both company will at least give this new models a 4 years support before moving to the next ones, which in my opinion will be backwards and forwards compatible, for example Scorpio will be able in 4 years to run at 1080p or so games which will instead run at 4k on Scorpio 2 and so on
 

Oxirane

Member
Are there any game changing type technologies on the horizon, that will change the way games are programmed? Wasn't there that Xpoint memory that was supposed to be denser than NAND, but faster than DRAM?

I wonder if one of Sony or MS would take a stab at a handheld PS4/XB1 that is software compatible with current gen games, before they go the next gen systems.
 
I'm expecting more than 16GB of RAM since I see 12GB+ of VRAM in PC GPUs being the common thing by 2020.

2 to 4 GB of VRAM was the common thing around the time the current consoles launched, now it is 4 to 8 GB.

The GTX 1180 will probably be a 8GB card, but the GTX 1280 will not.

edit: on the less optimistice side, I see a lot more games at 1800p than at 2160p
 

pa22word

Member
I'm expecting more than 16GB of RAM since I see 12GB+ of VRAM in PC GPUs being the common thing by 2020.

2 to 4 GB of VRAM was the common thing around the time the current consoles launched, now it is 4 to 8 GB.

The GTX 1180 will probably be a 8GB card, but the GTX 1280 will not.

edit: on the less optimistice side, I see a lot more games at 1800p than at 2160p

It really depends on how far behind console gaming is willing to go next gen, and I don't mean that in a derogatory way at all. I think that if scorpio does decently the midgen cycle will be standard fare, which will give sony/ms a lot more leeway to undershoot to get costs down vs what they did with PS4/xbone. It wouldn't really shock me at all if they launch in 2020 with an RX470 level 2018/19 card with heavy underclocks.
 

Rad-

Member
Scorpio is pretty much a successor to XO, considering it's so beefy (for a console). I'm actually fairly certain that XO -> Scorpio performance jump will be bigger than Scorpio -> Scorpio 2 jump (if "Scorpio 2" even happens).
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
Any benches yet? Not saying I don't buy it or anything, but hbm+ would have to be extraordinarily more efficient to hit the 16-32 GB at ps4 tdp. I'd love to be wrong, but those figures from a while back from Nvidia (?) showing massive exponential leaps per GB on hbm2 were pretty damning to say the least.

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2016/08/hbm3-details-price-bandwidth/

HBM+ is the alternative name for the "low cost HBM" segment featured in this article about GDDR6, HBM3 and "low cost HBM"

53536_02_low-cost-hbm-way-hit-mass-market-soon_full.png
 

anothertech

Member
Sony: 2019

Xbox: 2021

Nintendo: 2022

Quantum computers with HBM5 and 30 petaflops. Min specs.

Realistically, 12-16tf machines would be in line with the next gen leaps based on 1.2/1.8tf og systems.

In 6 years, pro versions would be 24-32tf systems.
 

kraspkibble

Permabanned.
Scorpio is pretty much a successor to XO, considering it's so beefy (for a console). I'm actually fairly certain that XO -> Scorpio performance jump will be bigger than Scorpio -> Scorpio 2 jump (if "Scorpio 2" even happens).

by the time the PS5 comes out Scorpio will be weak in comparison and Microsoft will need to bring another console out if it wants to compete. I see the Scorpio being just a beefed up Xbox One similar to what the PS4 Pro is. XB1/PS4 = <1080p Pro/Scorpio = <2160p.

PS5 will be the first true next gen console and I'd expect it in 2019 so Scorpio will only have a little of 2017, all of 2018 and most of 2019. I don't see Microsoft bringing another console out until at least 2020/2021. The best they can do is drop Xbox One support in 2019 just as the PS5 is about to come out then they can start releasing Scorpio exclusives that will make full use of the hardware. Xbox One owners can't complain really because by 2019 it will be 6 years old.

specs:

8-core AMD Ryzen CPU. seems kinda obvious. for RAM at least 16GB. GPU will probably be based on what ever Vega GPU amd bring out that is roughly at the same level as a GTX 1080-Titan X(P). I'd guess anywhere between 8-11TF in terms of performance. although I think AMD calculate their TF differently compared to Nvidia. someone from Playstation said they think 8TF being the minimum for 4K gaming. as for storage, unfortunately I don't see SSD's being included as stock. the will support SSD's but they'll toss in a 1 or 2TB HDD as the minimum with options of 4TB models too.
 

Some Nobody

Junior Member
2020. It's kinda funny because I feel like we've seen most of the new software for the last bit of this gen already. There's certainly some surprises left but I feel like stuff made for 2020 will end up being cross-gen, and there's some games we've already seen that are obviously not coming out until 2019.

At any rate, no clue on the specs aside from I'm guessing 2TB Hard drives and $399 continues to be the standard pricing. After PS3 got its ass kicked at $599 and Xbox One took huge L's at $499, I think everyone's learned their lesson that $399 is the max people are willing to come off for a console aside from the biggest enthusiasts.
 
It really depends on how far behind console gaming is willing to go next gen, and I don't mean that in a derogatory way at all. I think that if scorpio does decently the midgen cycle will be standard fare, which will give sony/ms a lot more leeway to undershoot to get costs down vs what they did with PS4/xbone. It wouldn't really shock me at all if they launch in 2020 with an RX470 level 2018/19 card with heavy underclocks.

Yeah I agree that the GPU itself is going to be something more along the lines of a mid range 2018 card, say (just to give it a name) "AMD R570", and by the time the consoles launch the newest AMD mid range card may be the "R770" with 12GB of VRAM. But the PS5 or XBOX 4 would have 24GB or 32 GB of RAM for all purposes along with that ~2018 chip. With neither of them on "GTX1270" or "R780" levels by any means, let alone "GTX1280" and "R790".
 

2+2=5

The Amiga Brotherhood
Is really THAT hard for gaf to understand that Scorpio IS the xbox2(/xbox10)?

MS is going the pc/mobile way, exactly like the iphone 7 is compatible with the iphone 6 while being two different generations so the xb2(xb10) will be compatible with the xb1, MS want to transform the xbox in a windows 10 machine, ms doesn't plan on doing an incompatible console, there won't be an xbox 2 incompatible with the xb1, or a xb3 incompatible with the xb2 and so on, and you should be super happy for this, all this time console makers took advantage of their position to force us to buy new consoles every time, compatibility isn't a matter of hardware, it's a matter of OS, put the same OS on different machines and they will play the same games, like on pc, mobile etc.

Scorpio/xb2/xb10 will be released at the end of 2017 or early 2018, sony is always reactive so in the same timeframe we'll start hearing the first rumors about the ps5 and the announcement will be in 2018.
 

AmyS

Member
Scorpio will launch November 2017, no way they miss the Holiday.

Now Scorpio can be whatever you want it to be, as far where it fits into a generation, but once PlayStation 5 launches (2-3 years after Scorpio) Microsoft will have an Xbox to counter it.
 

mike4001_

Member
Usually the RAM upgrade is 8x the previous gen. Do you guys think there's a chance we'll actually get 64GB of RAM on the next consoles?

Honestly, even thinking of 2020 I don't see this happening. I think it'll be around 32GB, but it will be A LOT faster than current RAM.

No

Even PC´s don´t really go above 16 GB because it´s just not necessary.

But maybe 32 becomes the Standard in a few years.
 

Coxy100

Banned
Part of me thinks there's not going to be a PS5/New Xbox. What's keeping them from a simple optional hardware upgrade every 3 years, while retaining the libraries that already exist?

This is what I'd like to see - let us keep playing our libraries.
 

2+2=5

The Amiga Brotherhood
You don't destroy generations to enable backwards compatibility >_>

You simply enable backwards compatibility

The iphone 7 is compatible with the iphone 6, a 2017 pc is compatible with a 2012 pc while capable of doing games that consoles can only dream of, is it really hard to understand that compatible consoles are a good thing? Consoles manufacturers took advantage of their position to fraud us forcing us to buy incompatible consoles, compatibility is a matter of OS, put the same OS on different hardwares and they will play the same games, pc with completely different hardwares can play the same games while consoles from the same manufacturers can't, do you really like that much to waste your money?
 

Mandoric

Banned
The iphone 7 is compatible with the iphone 6, a 2017 pc is compatible with a 2012 pc while capable of doing games that consoles can only dream of, is it really hard to understand that compatible consoles are a good thing? Consoles manufacturers took advantage of their position to fraud us forcing us to buy incompatible consoles, compatibility is a matter of OS, put the same OS on different hardwares and they will play the same games, pc with completely different hardwares can play the same games while consoles from the same manufacturers can't, do you really like that much to waste your money?

There's a difference between believing something is a good thing, and believing it'll survive the Scylla and Charybdis of our hype-driven, low-information market/Microsoft's affinity for deep-sixing slow-burn projects and products.
 

inner-G

Banned
I think Scorpio will be a new generation and they'll start teasing PS5 around its release

The generation after that will be quantum computers
 

Averon

Member
Really depends on when AMD/GF can start churning out 7nm APUs. I see the Sony going for something like AMD's upcoming Grey Hawk APU slated for 2019.

AMD’s Gray Hawk APUs will feature up to four Zen Plus processor cores, up to eight threads (lanes), and a power requirement as low as 10 watts. These chips will include a graphics component based on AMD’s Navi GPU architecture arriving after 2017’s Vega graphics chips. As a comparison, the current Radeon RX 400 Series graphics cards on the market are based on the company’s Polaris graphics chip.
 
It's not only about tech but also cost. For the most cases, you are fine with 16gb of ram in a computer. I did this upgrade 5 years ago when ram was cheap and this is still something you can be fine with today, for some cases it might even be too much (not really, because there is no better ram than more ram but you get what I'm saying).
We reached a certain baseline that *is* enough in an economical way. People saying 32GB of HBM2 are just posting out of hope, I guess.
The amount of RAM is not that important after a certain amount (say 8 GB of *usable* RAM for games, not the limits that XBO/PS4 have) but bandwidth will be important.

RAM price will go down, that's as inevitable as the Moore's law itself. And judging how much memory future next-gen systems will have based on how much memory current PCs need is the same pitfall people fall in, every..single..time. You know, forget about how much memory next-gen games will require for a second. Just by upgrading the current 1080p/15min recording limit to 4k/30min recording you've already increased the memory usage by 8 folds.

If they add multitasking to games so you can at least have one game in suspend mode while you play another game, that adds another 4 GB overhead, assuming next-gen games take same memory footprint as current games, which they obviously won't. And this is before the increased footprint of OS itself. I'd say 32GB bare minimum, and realistically a bit more than that.
 
Usually the RAM upgrade is 8x the previous gen. Do you guys think there's a chance we'll actually get 64GB of RAM on the next consoles?

Honestly, even thinking of 2020 I don't see this happening. I think it'll be around 32GB, but it will be A LOT faster than current RAM.

No

Even PC´s don´t really go above 16 GB because it´s just not necessary.

But maybe 32 becomes the Standard in a few years.

Each generation of Playstation has had 16x the RAM, so we 'should' get 128GB next gen. But now that Moore's Law is ending maybe this ends too.
 

Papacheeks

Banned
I think Scorpio will be a new generation and they'll start teasing PS5 around its release

The generation after that will be quantum computers

Only if scorpio get''s pushed into 2018.

PS4, PS4 PRO, and VR are still big products that have to grow.

PS5 won't get a mention until late 2018 in the form of rumors.

Then we will see a presentation during 2019 with a late 2019 launch or early 2020.

But 2019 is my guess as they want shorter gens.
 

anothertech

Member
Some people seem to be confused. The difference between generations is that the new hardware will play software the old hardware can't handle.

BC may be a thing, which seems likely with the 'games as a service' trend, but the new gen will play hardware they cannot be played on the old hardware.

That's why mid gen releases can't be 'stealth' new gen release of hardware. They are designed with old hardware compatibility in mind.

This happens with pc's too btw. When the 'min spec' no longer includes your old gpu/cpu setup.
 

phansen

Neo Member
Depends a lot on Scorpio being a success or failure. But either way, 2019 is earliest for PS5, might even push it to 2020 if they're not challenged by MS/NIntendo, to rake in those late cycle profits.
 

c0de

Member
RAM price will go down, that's as inevitable as the Moore's law itself.

RAM price will go down to a certain degree but only to a certain baseline. The fact that modules also don't grow at a steady rate over the past years also made prices keeping a certain baseline. Of course DDR4 launched high and got lower but it never falls below a certain threshold. See here for development of prices and recognize what's happened since 2011: http://www.jcmit.com/memoryprice.htm

And judging how much memory future next-gen systems will have based on how much memory current PCs need is the same pitfall people fall in, every..single..time.

Is it?

You know, forget about how much memory next-gen games will require for a second.

Ok.

Just by upgrading the current 1080p/15min recording limit to 4k/30min recording you've already increased the memory usage by 8 folds.

Your argument is that the RAM will be more because of a little feature that was introduced this gen? You are also assuming you will be given double the amount of time *and* ignore more efficient codes.

If they add multitasking to games so you can at least have one game in suspend mode while you play another game, that adds another 4 GB overhead, assuming next-gen games take same memory footprint as current games, which they obviously won't.
Yes, if. Why would they do that? And why wouldn't they just suspend to disk? That would still be faster than booting the game.

And this is before the increased footprint of OS itself.

?! Both consoles already have ~3GB of RAM reserved, why would that grow? For example, I fully expect PS5 to also use freebsd - an operating system that runs on almost everything out there that can compute. Why would the kernel and some user space programs need more RAM?

I'd say 32GB bare minimum, and realistically a bit more than that.

None of your points are valid.
 

AmyS

Member
Mark Cerny stated that early planning for PS4 began in 2008, after doing a postmortem on PS3 and talking extensively to developers.

He recently said that development on PS4 Pro began in 2014.

It's now January 2017.

Is there any reason to believe Cerny isn't planning the architecture for PS5 right now?
 

Wollan

Member
I think Sony might not be allergic to a spring (2020) release this time around. It all depends on when 7nm can be mass produced and moore's law reaches a screeching hault.
 
Not gonna chime in on the tech but I expect both consoles to deliver world class visuals and tech. Heaps better than RN. and of course, tech is tech but the first party devs will milk the system to the end of the world to get out some incredible games. Scorpio's curious one and how late its coming out. I wonder what's going to happen with MS's next console.
 

Kill3r7

Member
2020 at the earliest. It really depends on how well the PS4 is selling at that point. If the console is still above 15 million units sold per year I think they stick with the PS4 until it dips below that threshold.
 

Papacheeks

Banned
2020 at the earliest. It really depends on how well the PS4 is selling at that point. If the console is still above 15 million units sold per year I think they stick with the PS4 until it dips below that threshold.

Why is everyone thinking 2020? They flat out said they want shorter gens, if they go to 2020 that's a gen much closer to last which they said they dont want to repeat..

So 2019 is my guess. 2020 at the very latest.
 

AmyS

Member
So guys, if you read my above post, what's your thinking on where Mark Cerny might be at, in terms of PS5 system architecture development ?
 
So guys, if you read my above post, what's your thinking on where Mark Cerny might be at, in terms of PS5 system architecture development ?

I think PS5 have been on their drawing boards since before PS4Pro was released. I think Sony have PS4's 1st party line up sorted well into 2019 and it's strong enough to hold off any competition from Scorpio. Just announcing Last of Us 2 gave them breathing room until after that is released.

So, I'd guess at late 2019 at the earliest, but might just slip in to 2020 for PS5.

My clairvoyancey wouldn't stretch far beyond...AMD based, full 4K HDR at 30fps min, full backwards compatibility with PS4/Pro.
 
I think 2019 sounds about right for the PS5.
Xbox, if they stick with the generation-less approach, probably 2020 for the Scorpio successor. 2019 would seem a little too soon, and it would make sense for them to put some distance between Xbox and PS5 launches.

If the PS5 comes out holiday 2019, that would mean the PS4 had a 6 year life span. Which sounds about right to me.
 

Wadiwasi

Banned
I think the PS4 is just starting to get to the good parts of its life cycle and has many more years ahead of it.

2021 at the earliest in my opinion and there will be really awesome CPU/GPU tech that had just released or will release soon and just like always it will be the previous tech in the actual machine to keep costs down. People will complain because they don't have a $300-400 box with state of the art components in it.


edit: ** What would probably be really good for gaming studios is for them to release a new one in 2019 so more of them could pull the GTA / Last of Us deal, release game toward very end of life cycle then release an updated version for the next gen.
 

BigPapi

Member
I think Microsoft will transition into 4 year cycles and won't phase the oldest hardware until it's 10 years old so I believe NextBox is for 2020 and 2022 is when Xone won't get the new games.

This way Microsoft will have multiple entry points for console players depending if they want "high end gaming" (for consoles) or if they simply want to play games xbox one/oldest hardware.

Sony will probably do ps5 in 2019 and then follow normal standards and release a new console every 5-6 years i think this PRO console will be unique to this gen
 
Since now we have these 'mid gen upgrades' like the Pro and Scorpio, I think it's fair to say that there's no way a new console will be announced soon, right?

Anyway what is your guess? And what do you think will be the specs?

Before the pro I was hoping for a 2018 or 2019 reveal and late 2019/early 2020 for new consoles. Now I don't know anymore. I think we will not have any news regarding the next gen until 2020.

Scorpio isn't a mid gen upgrade though. This has been stated multiple times.
 
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