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Sony can respond to The Empire building the Death Star using...Moneyball

ZywyPL

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PlayStation has made only $3.3B profit out of $25B, which means they've spent around $22.7B on PlayStation brand in one year.

The question is where does this money actually go? Because realistically, they have huge AAA studios, each with hundreds of programmers+managers+team leaders+executives, all working on just a single title for 5-7 years, plus all the mo-cap sessions and actors, so the question is how much of those expenses are simply the salaries/production costs?

And with that being said, going back to OT, what I'd personally like to see from Sony is to cut down the production time to 3-4 years, so each studio would give us at least two games per generation, because really, all those delays barely change the games, if at all, 2-3 years later everything is virtually identical with what's been previously shown on every gameplay vid, making you wonder what the hell they've been doing for all those years... Just release the games and move onto something new, a sequel or different IP, or at least some post-launch support. IMO all studios should take notice from Insomniac, those guys release multiple high quality games like it's a walk in the park, leading in some technical aspects while doing so (temporal injection, RT@60FPS). That's really all Sony has to do, release more games, just like they've been doing in the good old PSX/PS2/PS3 days.
 
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So many unbelievably bad takes in this thread.

Not even 12 months into this new gen and people acting like the winner has already been decided? This your first gen folks?

This looks to be another ps3/360 era. 360 dominated early with good exclusives, amazing 3rd parties and system that was easy to develop for. But by the tail end of the gen people had figured out the powerhouse that was the ps3 and the exclusives started to completely take over. Sony then continued to ride that high with the ps4 and some easy PR wins.

Ps5 not started strong would be insane considering the momentum they built with the ps4. But jim ryan controversy aside the xbox is clearly primed to take over. We wont see the fruits of the studio acquisitions kick in for another 2-3 years and when it does the sheer number of studios will mean the flow will never stop, couple that with the superior specs and the the gulf of difference in value; expect xbox to pull a ps3 this gen.
They could do anything is possible. My issue is Microsoft have completely failed to demonstrate they can produce compelling first party content.

They looked like they were on a role with the 360 era until they jumped shark with kinect and have never seemingly recovered.

Having lots of studios is one thing but they need big popular franchises to make a difference.

Currently they have 3 very big franchises under there belt halo, elder scrolls and fallout and I will give you star field as well so let's say 4.

First issue 3 of those games are tied to one developer who take way to long to produce games that needs change. If they can get fallout, elder scrolls and star field out in one generation now we're talking.

Second issue halo is obviously weaker than it was although that can change. It was a good job they delayed it because that game needs to be good.

After that they got a bunch of other solid franchises gears, forza, doom etc. They need to bring them up peak halo levels of popularity.

If they can't do the above I think sony will wipe the floor with them again even if sonys current line up doesn't improve which I think it will.
 
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Schmick

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None of you ever though that making the gaming space diverse is a good thing! We don’t need Sony and MS becoming identical!
I have always thought this. But for some reason we still see comments made that Xbox has no games because they don't have the cinematic single campaign games that Sony brings. Instead Xbox has different kind of like MP focused games.

There is a console that caters for your gaming preferences, pick one, or pick all of them.

Just find this place very frustrating sometimes.
 

Bo_Hazem

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The question is where does this money actually go? Because realistically, they have huge AAA studios, each with hundreds of programmers+managers+team leaders+executives, all working on just a single title for 5-7 years, plus all the mo-cap sessions and actors, so the question is how much of those expenses are simply the salaries/production costs?

And with that being said, going back to OT, what I'd personally like to see from Sony is to cut down the production time to 3-4 years, so each studio would give us at least two games per generation, because really, all those delays barely change the games, if at all, 2-3 years later everything is virtually identical with what's been previously shown on every gameplay vid, making you wonder what the hell they've been doing for all those years... Just release the games and move onto something new, a sequel or different IP, or at least some post-launch support. IMO all studios should take notice from Insomniac, those guys release multiple high quality games like it's a walk in the park, leading in some technical aspects while doing so (temporal injection, RT@60FPS). That's really all Sony has to do, release more games, just like they've been doing in the good old PSX/PS2/PS3 days.

I don't think Sony should squeeze production cycles, and of course it's pretty expensive that's why Xbox is not producing on the same level, but it pays back indeed. Also most of the Sony studios were/are smaller than making top quality games that fast. Nearly every moment in TLOU2, GOW feels so unique and special, they're just so dense in production value, narrative, cinematics to the point you feel like they're real people not game characters, always commenting on things.

That's why Jim Ryan said they're expanding organically. You need to feed those armies, they're not robots. And Sony is very passionate and generous with them which always results in healthy development environments. But of course it's not a charity, you need to deliver or Sony will cut the fat like with Japan Studio and many other lazy studios. Some treat generosity as incompetency, until they get sacked when time is up to show their hands.

Also Sony costs much less making that level of quality due to shared expertise and assets from Sony Pictures, Sony Music for example, which made HZD to cost only $45M and produce more than $400M!

The only other generous publisher I know about is Universal, according to Mark Cerny, which made Crash and other games.
 
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BabyfaceRe

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They could do anything is possible. My issue is Microsoft have completely failed to demonstrate they can produce compelling first party content.

They looked like they were on a role with the 360 era until they jumped shark with kinect and have never seemingly recovered.

Having lots of studios is one thing but they need big popular franchises to make a difference.

Currently they have 3 very big franchises under there belt halo, elder scrolls and fallout and I will give you star field as well so let's say 4.

First issue 3 of those games are tied to one developer who take way to long to produce games that needs change. If they can get fallout, elder scrolls and star field out in one generation now we're talking.

Second issue halo is obviously weaker than it was although that can change. It was a good job they delayed it because that game needs to be good.

After that they got a bunch of other solid franchises gears, forza, doom etc. They need to bring them up peak halo levels of popularity.

If they can't do the above I think sony will wipe the floor with them again even if sonys current line up doesn't improve which I think it will.
I 100% agree with 1st party being very weak for xbox historically but it's very clear it's a numbers games. Sony number of owned studios has dwarfed Xbox and we've seen the results. There should be no reason the same logic should not now be applied to xbox, who have a lot more studios than Sony. That's before you weigh up the price point of gamepass vs 70 per game (a mind boggling difference in value).

In terms of franchises, your statement seems to be under the guise that all franchises are created equal but they are not. Elder scrolls alone shits on Sony's entire catalogue just buy itself and fallout does the same. These are not just highly reviewed games but games with ridiculous sales potential. Skyrim cannot be compared to TLOU right? This is something worth bearing in mind, a simple question u can ask yourself is what sells more consoles, the answer is ALWAYS elder scrolls.

And with that being said, the other franchises u listed like doom and forza, have no reason to hit the same heights as those franchises; its neither realistic nor is it part of thier business plan. The point of 1st party is to attract customers to the platform. Depending on how exclusivity pans out with xbox games ES alone is an absolute killer app, what franchise outside of the casual crew (gta, cod and fifa) has the same pull as ES in the AAA space? Certainly nothing in Sony's library.

We shall see where xbox is at in 3 years from now but the ball is certainly in thier court.
 

CeeJay

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It's interesting OP that you overvalue exactly what Sony has been providing gamers since the birth of PlayStation and put on the under valued section the things that Xbox is providing with their offering. I think that to a great extent you are right and the feasibility of "one and done" cinematic single player games with cutting edge visuals and production values are becoming increasingly more difficult to make. It's the reason why Sony are moving away from experimental games and going for safe bets that they know will be blockbusters. I think Sony do need to adapt and start looking seriously at the GAAS model. I think that this gen from Xbox we will see mainline Halo, 1 Forza MS and 1 Gears game that will be built upon for the entire gen and beyond like they already seem to be doing with games like Sea of Thieves or Grounded. It is just not cost effective these days to put the huge investment in to a game and bank on it recouping the money within the space of a couple of weeks after launch. Its very much a boom and bust approach and a really successful Dev is only ever 2 games away from being dispanded.

I think Sony should carry on with doing what they have done previously as its what people expect from them but they should split their teams and have a second team working on long term GAAS games with the IP start that are well known for developing. They should still try experimental stuff by investing smaller amounts that typical AAA budgets in small 3rd party indies and helping them in technical matters to punch above their weight, maybe even give them a pop at some unused AAA IP. It's a risk and will result in some low scores for some games but conversely will come up with some amazing games and more importantly keeps that old style identity with a constant stream of well known titles. Essentially Sony are playing catch up right now even if the sales currently do not reflect that they need to make some major changes to keep up with the way the market is going. They seem to be consolidating and putting all their eggs in a few small baskets when they should be spreading their investment out to increase output.
 
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ripeavocado

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If M$ has been spending to buy the MVPs then they need better scouting and assessments of their values since 343 and the gears teams have disappointing releases and have spent a lots of money on Bethesda than other than for DOOM has had many flops under its belt and one of the worst tech of the industry (TES/Fallout engine)
 
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Renozokii

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Are you Michael patcher?
No I have common sense. The hype behind the ps5 right now is beyond what the ps4 had and we are realistically looking at Sony’s biggest console yet. There is no way in hell Xbox isn’t crazy in the red right now. 23 devs with game budgets being around 100 million nowadays, selling the console at a loss, and all the acquisitions. They need more than just 20 million subs on gamepass for this to make sense. A LOT more
 
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Renozokii

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I don’t personally see these two working well for PlayStation as they’re the opposite of what PlayStation markets itself as.

I’ve been seeing this a lot of Neogaf lately, and it’s really irritating. Everywhere I check, they’re all sold out. If they’re in less demand, where are they? Really, please tell me. I want one.
Just resale prices. The series s goes barely 80 bucks above retail on stock x, which is by far the best measure for resale prices btw it’s a super impressive system they have, and the series x is going for about 150 above retail. Ps5 disc is going for 300 bucks more while the digital is going for 250 more. This is despite more ps5s being produced and sold. When you have two products going for the same price, $500, and one costs double the premium to get while also having more units in production and more sales from day one, the demand is higher. That’s basic logic.
 
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No I have common sense. The hype behind the ps5 right now is beyond what the ps4 had and we are realistically looking at Sony’s biggest console yet. There is no way in hell Xbox isn’t crazy in the red right now. 23 devs with game budgets being around 100 million nowadays, selling the console at a loss, and all the acquisitions. They need more than just 20 million subs on gamepass for this to make sense. A LOT more
You're a faceless nobody on a niche gaming forum. Stop acting like you have a clue about the business of a trillion dollar company. Your opinion is as worthless as anyone elses here.
 

Men_in_Boxes

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This is ridiculously, hilariously wrong.

GAAS are so toxic in terms of sales prospects now that publishers and developers are running away from them. Just look at Outriders - a game that clearly began development with GAAS in mind and then pivoted away from it because of the failures. Look at Avengers, a game that could have been good as a story based game like Spider-Man, but was forced into GAAS for its endgame (presumably because Square was chasing that Destiny money, or so it thought). As a result of its bad design - which nerfs the potential of the licence, as gameplay and scenarios can’t take proper advantage of how each superhero’s abilities could be used in a more linear game - it satisfies neither camp and is considered a flop. Look at Anthem, a monumental failure that was once supposed to be the next big thing.

Everyone already has their game - Destiny, Warframe, The Division (and even its sequel wasn’t as popular as Ubi hoped for), Fortnite etc - and the GAAS market is firmly closed for newbies. Any successful new GAAS would have to be absolutely amazing, as there simply isn’t a market there for ‘solid’ entries. Players have already picked and aren’t going to move en masse to something new unless it‘s the best one ever made, and publishers have been spooked by all the failures. EA has seen that single player games can actually sell really well (Fallen Order), and Square’s pivot with Outriders has worked out much better for them than keeping it as a GAAS would have done. New GAAS are dead, man. Your entry badly needs to switch category to ‘overvalue’.

I couldn't disagree with you more here.

The fact that Outriders isn't GAAS means almost nothing to me. There's clearly space for both in 2021.

But you need to look at SteamCharts and XBox Lives Most Played List. You'll notice two things.

1) GAAS are the games being played today.

2) As much as I love Fortnite, it's very clearly the Donkey Kong Arcade of GAAS.



There's so much absurd growth potential there that it's only a matter of time before Fortnite, Warzone, Apex Legends get replaced by superior offerings.

Take a look at Rust on PC. The game looks and plays ancient, and it's more popular today than it was 10 years ago. You don't think there's potential for a big publisher to look at Rust and say "We can make something Rust-like that appeals to a wider audience. We'll give it better production values, add on to it's mechanics a bit etc..."

Everyone playing the current leaders of GAAS want to play their successors. In 5-10 years those successors will be here. The question is, will Sony be making those games.
 

Renozokii

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You're a faceless nobody on a niche gaming forum. Stop acting like you have a clue about the business of a trillion dollar company. Your opinion is as worthless as anyone elses here.
The same trillion dollar company that didn’t turn a profit on Xbox for over a decade, lost 4 billion in a single quarter on windows phones, and had to spend 10 billion dollars on first party acquisitions alongside hundreds of millions because their studios were considered bottom tier in their industry? If I criticized the business model surrounding the windows phone you’d say the same thing, or is there a particular bias you have here for a certain console platform?

Yes my opinion and everyone here has an opinion that is completely worthless, yet you visit the site, made an account, and post obviously very emotional responses to the worthless individuals here. I value some of the opinions here and constantly learn from people that have obviously more knowledge than me in terms of game development and details about the technical aspect of it all, like various techniques used to push the boundaries of what games can do and look like. That’s why I’m here. That and to console fanboy because that’s like half the fun of this site lmao
 
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Bo_Hazem

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Yet your graph shows that PS2 sold 157.7M and PS3 87M.

What does that tell you?

Anything can happen, you should never sit on your laurels enjoying past successes, you need to stay hungry and pay attention to what’s happening around you and be ready to change strategy whenever needed.

And, well, Gamepass is what’s happening. Is Sony ready to change strategy?

You know that PS3 started 1 year later with nearly double the price of Xbox360, and since then it outsold Xbox360 nearly every month until the end of its cycle, that what made it come on top. Worldwide people have more trust on Sony, Xbox360 have harbored its "vague" success mostly from RROD:



Source:



And from easy to pirate console DVD-based vs PS3 made it the go-to console for people who can't afford full-price games as well. Also PS1-2 were mostly successful from outside but cost Sony a lot, thanks to piracy. Prices didn't change much since PS1 and PS2, but piracy has been shrinking ever since.




Some people here bought Xbox360 as a secondary console with 10+ games preloaded in the console and play offline. That one of the reasons of Xbox One 24-hour DRM and their elusive shit they came up with as most people didn't know about how much piracy was hurting xbox outside the US (and probably some in the US as well).

No I have common sense. The hype behind the ps5 right now is beyond what the ps4 had and we are realistically looking at Sony’s biggest console yet. There is no way in hell Xbox isn’t crazy in the red right now. 23 devs with game budgets being around 100 million nowadays, selling the console at a loss, and all the acquisitions. They need more than just 20 million subs on gamepass for this to make sense. A LOT more

Not to mention that it's beyond any publisher other than Sony to produce such a quality game as Horizon Zero Dawn with only $45M!!! That is also how they manage to accelerate the production of Spiderman by using the same film CGI models for the games, not to mention natural assets library used by Sony Pictures is available to their 1st party. Sony can make mind blowing graphics with smaller budgets than they should've been cost.
 
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Bo_Hazem

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Speaking of online MP I think Sony should make more of the less expensive MP that is found on Uncharted 4 (2nd most played MP to me after BF4), GOT Legends, and now TLOU Factions. These don't need servers like BF and GaaS games, so it should be much easier sustain and add more value to the game.



For GOT Legends I would've loved if they added a PvP duel, it'll be so much fun and epic! They might pull that off on the next GOT2 when they refine deflection, defense mechanics to fit with PvP, I guess, without those visual hints vs NPC.



They can add cosmetic MTX as well after providing a healthy amount of in-game ones, or make them all in-game and MTX just makes it faster? Like in Uncharted 4 but you go straight and buy what you want instead of loot-boxes or go achieve them in-game without loot-boxes but buy doing specific tasks like in Legends:





But that will destroy the purpose of grind, right? Maybe they should just use GOT Legends model as it is which gives good PR and add more missions later and cosmetics, and gain from more and more game sales instead without dropping the price due to demand.
 
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TheAssist

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Sony is not the New York Yankees.

They were, but they're not anymore.

Microsoft is funding a significantly bigger, more expensive stable of developers after the Bethesda aquisition. PC+XBox means their install base will be bigger than PlayStation for the duration of the generation. And GamePass is likely losing them quite a bit of money because it can't be doing any favors to AAA game sales.

Microsoft is outspending Sony for the first time in XBox's existence.

I don't see how Sony's strategy can succeed going against that juggernaut moving forward. Naughty Dogs next linear story game (if they go down that route again) is going to cost significantly more than TLoU2, and it'll sell roughly the same as their last few games.

If Sony releases two big games a year, they can't be single player games people beat in a weekend. GamePass and MS studio size counters that strategy pretty effectively.

Sony needs to find a way to stay in the conversation more than 2 or 3 weeks a year.

I honestly dont know if Sony even wnats to stand relevant for more than a few weeks with each game. Of course a successful GAAS will make them money, but there are several downsides

1. As much money as it would make them via MTX, its probably not as much as people just buying new games on the PS Store
2. All genres that are currently making a lot of money are highly competitive and have a high failure rate for new games
3. Making a GAAS would put them in direct competition with the likes of Activision, EA and Ubisoft. But those are their partners that they want to have on their console. Again, selling tens of millions of copies of Call of Duty each year is making much more money with pretty much no risk or development cost on Sonys part. Just some marketing dollars.
4. People spending time on only one game means less people buying new games, which means Playstation is a harder sell to attract publishers and developers. Being the platform were most sales are being made is THE reason for a publishers to go exclusive, timed exclusive or offer exclusive parts like maps/DLC/skins/marketing deals etc.

The are a lot of reasons for Sony not to pursue that angle. Their games are basically a marketing instrument, "trailer bait", the idea of what they believe AAA gaming should be like. Of course you can agree or disagree with it, but I personally like it.

To summarize: The Playstation Store is Sony's GAAS :)
 
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Some people here bought Xbox360 as a secondary console with 10+ games preloaded in the console and play offline. That one of the reasons of Xbox One 24-hour DRM and their elusive shit they came up with as most people didn't know about how much piracy was hurting xbox outside the US (and probably some in the US as well).
Hmm, is this the reason why the Xbox 360 had a high attach rate and high software sales?
 

Bo_Hazem

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Hmm, is this the reason why the Xbox 360 had a high attach rate and high software sales?

No, that's in the US with better piracy control. Xbox360 isn't officially worldwide vs PS3 so most of them are US-market consoles resold in the grey market in many regions and most of them pre-cracked and with 10+ games and you can buy nearly each game for $2.6 (1 OMR) here at least. But most of them have difficulties playing online, probably that's why the paid online model idea was born as well.




Here is from the UK as well:



That's why MS is paying Sony for Bluray. Xbox One might be more profitable than Xbox 360 honestly despite what the title of the books say.
 
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Andodalf

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Funny seeing this post followed immediately by the fact that Sony is abandoning everything but the blockbuster.
 
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No, that's in the US with better piracy control. Xbox360 isn't officially worldwide vs PS3 so most of them are US-market consoles resold in the grey market in many regions and most of them pre-cracked and with 10+ games and you can buy nearly each game for $2.6 (1 OMR) here at least. But most of them have difficulties playing online, probably that's why the paid online model idea was born as well.




Here is from the UK as well:



That's why MS is paying Sony for Bluray.
Interesting, software sales and attach rate suggest though that the 360 isn't that far off compared to the PS3's. Especially pre-2009.
 

Bo_Hazem

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Interesting, software sales and attach rate suggest though that the 360 isn't that far off compared to the PS3's. Especially pre-2009.

Could mean as well that Xbox 360 are spending more as well. One of the successes of Sony and other publishers is releasing games with more languages. People play only COD and FIFA in most cases because they don't have their languages supported so understand shit about what to do, that's why GTA5 is mainly an online game and only a small percentage completed the SP campaign mode.
 
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Redlancet

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Na.

People like me bought both and see the PS5 collecting dust as we turn on the Xbox SX daily.

PlayStation in the PS4 era dominated due to exclusives........Sorry is really lagging on games I want to play right now.

Was going to pick up the show like i do every year.....guess that's free for me now =D
real life its gonna break you souls,but keep the good fight
 
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that's why GTA5 is mainly an online game and only a small percentage completed the SP campaign mode.
Are there completion rates for GTA IV to compare to the ones for GTA V?

Because honestly, I think the reason here is because a significant amount of people doesn't care about completing the single-player in GTA games. I myself use cheats for weapons, money, and other stuff in order to do what I want. Mission design in GTA is too restrictive for me. I guess a big reason for the success of the online multiplayer is that it makes use of the free-roaming map and doesn't have those restrictions.
 
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Dabaus

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How much of Micosofts "comeback" narrative simply because sonys current leadership is objectively incompetent and out touch? With the exception of the Bethesda buy out virtually almost all of this MS comeback story and attention is because sony is seemingly asleep at the wheel or just doesnt care about their own aloofness?
 
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Men_in_Boxes

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How much of Micosofts "comeback" narrative simply because sonys current leadership is objectively incompetent and out touch? With the exception of the Bethesda buy out virtually almost all of this MS comeback story and attention is because sony is seemingly asleep at the wheel or just doesnt care about their own aloofness?

The reverse is probably true.

If Microsoft is relatively quiet over these past 12 months, no one is complaining about Jim Ryan.

People are calling for his resignation because Microsoft has made such strides.
 

iQuasarLV

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Invalid predictions based on a compressed data set of only the last 13 years (or 1.5 system generations).

Only clever word used was zeitgeist. however, this whole thread is based on the predictive idea that the CURRENT zeitgeist is to predict an assured outcome of the future of gaming.

SMFH
 

MonarchJT

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No I have common sense. The hype behind the ps5 right now is beyond what the ps4 had and we are realistically looking at Sony’s biggest console yet. There is no way in hell Xbox isn’t crazy in the red right now. 23 devs with game budgets being around 100 million nowadays, selling the console at a loss, and all the acquisitions. They need more than just 20 million subs on gamepass for this to make sense. A LOT more
probably 3 games of all sony games cost 100 millionsa nd two are just from one studio
 
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probably 3 games of all sony games cost 100 millionsa nd two are just from one studio
The average AAA game costs 33 million and I think games like TLOU2 and GoW are definitely above that.
The average budget for a AAA Sony game is probably around 50-60 million. Less than 100 million, but still a lot.
 

MonarchJT

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The average AAA game costs 33 million and I think games like TLOU2 and GoW are definitely above that.
The average budget for a AAA Sony game is probably around 50-60 million. Less than 100 million, but still a lot.
exactly people throw nonsense numbers. with 100 million make at least 2 or 3 AAA games. Only games like Uncharted God of war and TLOU come close or surpass that figure. but in fact they are 3 or 4 games spread in a whole gen
 

Riky

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Have they shared? No, they only posted the annual revenue, without breaking it down and without adding the $7.5B of Bethesda indeed which will put a massive minus to their division losses.
This person has no idea about how a profit and loss account and a balance sheet work, embarrassing.
 
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exactly people throw nonsense numbers. with 100 million make at least 2 or 3 AAA games. Only games like Uncharted God of war and TLOU come close or surpass that figure. but in fact they are 3 or 4 games spread in a whole gen
We also have to consider that not every game by Sony has the same budget. Like I can't imagine that Bloodborne or Until Dawn come even close to having the same budget as TLoU2.

...but yeah, no way that every one of Microsoft's 23 developers makes a 100 million AAA beast. There are definitely lower-tier AAA or even AA titles mixed in there as well.
 
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I 100% agree with 1st party being very weak for xbox historically but it's very clear it's a numbers games. Sony number of owned studios has dwarfed Xbox and we've seen the results. There should be no reason the same logic should not now be applied to xbox, who have a lot more studios than Sony. That's before you weigh up the price point of gamepass vs 70 per game (a mind boggling difference in value).

In terms of franchises, your statement seems to be under the guise that all franchises are created equal but they are not. Elder scrolls alone shits on Sony's entire catalogue just buy itself and fallout does the same. These are not just highly reviewed games but games with ridiculous sales potential. Skyrim cannot be compared to TLOU right? This is something worth bearing in mind, a simple question u can ask yourself is what sells more consoles, the answer is ALWAYS elder scrolls.

And with that being said, the other franchises u listed like doom and forza, have no reason to hit the same heights as those franchises; its neither realistic nor is it part of thier business plan. The point of 1st party is to attract customers to the platform. Depending on how exclusivity pans out with xbox games ES alone is an absolute killer app, what franchise outside of the casual crew (gta, cod and fifa) has the same pull as ES in the AAA space? Certainly nothing in Sony's library.

We shall see where xbox is at in 3 years from now but the ball is certainly in thier court.
Oh I agree not all franchises are created equal my broader point was Sony currently are in a far stronger position than Microsoft due to about 6 to 7 games pulling 10 million units each and having a bunch of other games in the 3 to 5 million range. To be fair at the end of day dollars are all at that matters and if you can sell 100 million units through one game 10 or a 100 it’s all good

Having said that I think your overestimating elder scrolls. If you count all platforms, it's no doubt bigger than anything Sony has produced however that's not the cases on Sony platforms. If you look gamestat (RIP) data Skyrim is at 18.2 million and Fallout 4 is at 15.5 million https://gamstat.com/games/ Keep in mind this is total players not sales.

Now if we look at Sony's games even Horizon is bigger at 21.5 million players in far less time https://gamstat.com/games/. My point is how many of those 18 million players are going to drop PlayStation and their exclusives just for elder scrolls, fallout etc. I’m sure some will but I think a lot more will stay. (As a side note pretty much every other Bethesda game has performed terribly on the PS4 feel free to check the numbers.)

I respectfully disagree about it being a sheer numbers game plenty of publishers have reduced their output over years but increased there revenue/profits as the game's they have released have been more successful. Sony is a good example of this their output has slowly been decreasing since even the PS1 yet the PS4 was easily there most successful gen first party wise.


To be fair this release as many games as possible strategy might work for gamepass when in the past a lot of these titles would have got buried at retail. Still if the balance of power is going to shift I think they will need a few more tent pole titles to prop everything else up or an absolute monster on the level of GTA, Call of Duty or Fortnite, Elder scroll isn’t on that level yet but that might change
 
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Why can't people just enjoy all games and what they like and be happy? Someone's preference of brand doesn't reflect poorly or highly of them. It's just a friggin personal choice.
This will only happen if we live in a society where any game releases on every system.
 

MonarchJT

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Yea point is we are getting to that point and even lower end aaa budgets are at least at 50 million.
True, for this reason you need absolutely to expand your audience. and to do that, no, you can't just sell consoles ,this is a wrong view of those who are attached to the past and after tens of years still do not see that the sale of consoles have a evident numerical limit with respect to the time that lasts a generation. And the there's more, basing everything on the exclusive sale of a console to reach the end user is highly risky because the success of a console is always a bet, just take ps3, Nintendo Wii u, or OG Xbox One as an example and with the exponential increase in games production costs this risk is perhaps too much.

what do people think it will sell the ps5? more than the ps2? same as ps4? less? definitely not 200k of consoles (even worse the xsx)
 
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Men_in_Boxes

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I honestly dont know if Sony even wnats to stand relevant for more than a few weeks with each game. Of course a successful GAAS will make them money, but there are several downsides

1. As much money as it would make them via MTX, its probably not as much as people just buying new games on the PS Store
2. All genres that are currently making a lot of money are highly competitive and have a high failure rate for new games
3. Making a GAAS would put them in direct competition with the likes of Activision, EA and Ubisoft. But those are their partners that they want to have on their console. Again, selling tens of millions of copies of Call of Duty each year is making much more money with pretty much no risk or development cost on Sonys part. Just some marketing dollars.
4. People spending time on only one game means less people buying new games, which means Playstation is a harder sell to attract publishers and developers. Being the platform were most sales are being made is THE reason for a publishers to go exclusive, timed exclusive or offer exclusive parts like maps/DLC/skins/marketing deals etc.

The are a lot of reasons for Sony not to pursue that angle. Their games are basically a marketing instrument, "trailer bait", the idea of what they believe AAA gaming should be like. Of course you can agree or disagree with it, but I personally like it.

To summarize: The Playstation Store is Sony's GAAS :)

Think of what the metrics look like for the following...

Single player revenue+user playtime for consoles (compared to multiplayer) in 1990...then again in 2000...then again in 2010...2020.

The industry is very clearly trending multiplayer. That doesn't mean single player is dying. It's not going away. It's still very profitable.

But that trend, which already skews extremely heavy towards multiplayer, is probably not going to reverse any time soon.

In 2030, even more player time+revenue is going to head multiplayer. If that wave is true, why would Sony not want to catch it?

Then you have this idea...

The Last of Us II is the most polished, formulaic, big production value game there is. Advancing that formula is difficult. Creating more complex levels, with better AI etc is going to require a **** ton of resources.

On the flip side, take a look at Rust. It's a janky game that does a million things wrong, but it's still successful because it does the important things correctly. Making a better version of Rust, Fortnite, PUBG etc is relatively simple.

Many successful single player games feel like the end of the evolutionary chain. Many of the successful multiplayer games feel like the beginning of the evolutionary chain.

Another thing people aren't seeing is that Sony's 2 big single player games a year, results in a lot of discussion for about 2-4 weeks of the year. Outside of those 2-4 weeks, people bring up those games in conversation and the response is "Yeah, I beat that a while ago".

A Rust 2.0 game has friends getting together talking about what they want to do after the next server wipe. That's exponentially more effective marketing that what traditional single player games give you.

Plus, let's be honest. Microsoft is going to be able to out produce Sony in terms of single player games because of GamePass and their developer advantage. 10 more studios means they'll be able to produce +3 extra single player games per year. That's a fight Sony has no interest in.
 
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High skill floor games - Games that can't be picked up by a wide variety of gamers are putting a ceiling on their success. The Bloodborne/DarkSouls type games are never going to be big sellers.
BB sold poorly just like OG Demons Souls but the non exclusive Dark Souls series has always sold well and sales have increased with each sequel. Dark Souls 3 alone has sold over 10 million with a majority of those copies being the PC release. Sekiro also sold far above Activision's expectations.