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[duhmetree]

Why are people taking at face value Sony employe talking about their future products ?
Their goals is to sell for now PS4. Which means regardless of their plans for PS5 they will say PS5 could be even decades away because they want maximalize PS4 sales instead suggesting people they should wait for PS5.

IT is basically saying what Nintendo said about WiiU when there were releasing Switch. That they will still support WiiU same as 3DS. Not even a year later and WiiU support is completely dead with 3DS support dying as well as Nintendo moves everything to Switch trying to maximalize platform potential (forcing people to move from 3DS to Switch)

When will next generation begin will be dictated by technological progress and competition.
What that tells us ?

7nm node is effectively done and TSMC already is using it to make stuff while other big one GF is launching mass scale production early next year. This will also be timed with release of both Zen2 processors and Navi GPUs from AMD.
Thing is after than 7nm upgrade there is nothing on horizon to provide another jump like that. So by releasing in at the end of 2019 you are effectively locking up spec of consoles for next 5-7yeras and you are first to market.

Which means both MS and Sony will release their consoles when 7nm will be ready along with AMD new architectures which means end of next year. What is more important both Sony and MS will be looking at situation where they will be using effectively same architecture for the first time ever going from previous gen to next gen, which means they will be able to even release PS5 games that could potentially work on PS4s same way PC games work on lower hardware and it is something which both MS and Sony looks for going by some interesting interviews.

By 2020 or 2021 there will be literally nothing that would improve performance of console which compared to 2019. For significant upgrade you would need to wait at least to 2022 which would be almost 9 years and longest gen ever.

Other than 7nm delay (which seems impossible at this point) i don't see either MS or Sony waiting for 2020 or later.



Look at dates closely. March 2019, March 2021 etc

March 2019 effectively means 2018 sales as it is from march 2018 to march 2019. Which in this case means that they will be releasing console by holiday 2019 which would be in this chart march 2020 which would nicely correlate with chart because 2019 sales would still see PS4 nicely selling while they just release PS5 but 2021 sales on other hand would fall down because people would be moving from PS4 to PS5 and that means overall less games sold (which is prime income method for Sony)

exactly.

Holiday 2019 is looking like the target. I'll throw in Bloodborne 2 for March 2020

 

[FranXico]

Remember all those guys saying we were mad to say 2021, and were adamant it was 2019?

I am still adamant: it will be late 2019.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

If anyone wants to listen to the IR meeting themselves here is the link: http://www.irwebcasting.com/20180522/6/ca25c01d48/mov/main/index.html

The headline (to paraphrase) of "Sony boss says no new PlayStation for 3 years" was as wrong as I suspected as the start of the answer to question 4 of the Q&A section shows!

 

[bufkus]

they have zero reason to release a new console soon esp when the PS4 is still selling bucketloads.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

they have zero reason to release a new console soon esp when the PS4 is still selling bucketloads.

This isn't how the business or Sony work. Also they go into great detail about how they will try to mitigate the "boom and bust" nature of console transitions up until now.

Like I've said before, I think PS4 will continue and be properly supported with AAA games much longer than even any previous gen. Sony are already very good about this but the PS5 will be a "soft launch" as someone put it succinctly.

Basically I see it like this: PS4 or PS5.. Why not both?

 

[SScorpio]

I am still adamant: it will be late 2019.

As am I. the quote is that the PS4 is entering it's final three years. Nothing says a PS5 isn't already released and running alongside it. That's happened with every single PlayStation so far. PS2 came out, Final Fantasy IX on the PSX, PS3 while the PS2 got God of War 2. The PS3 bucked this trend a little due to being out too long, it did have cross-gen games. The PS3's gen went too long at seven years, this fall the PS4 will be out for five. People really don't think a new console coming out next year it out of the question?

 

[Oemenia]

Despite the shitty CPUs, these consoles are showing no signs of ageing. I really hope they take their time.

 

[GTR R35_Supra RZ]

The head of Sony or whoever he says came out and said 3yrs before anything PS5 on the Horizon..now you have peeps downplaying it and can't handle the truth and saying coming out next yr..2021-2022, DEAL WITH IT.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

The head of Sony or whoever he says came out and said 3yrs before anything PS5 on the Horizon..now you have peeps downplaying it and can't handle the truth and saying coming out next yr..2021-2022, DEAL WITH IT.

He never did say PS5 in 3 years. Why all the game sites did a mass Lemmings impression I don't know:

 

[Hotel Security]

Good. Graphics look good enough for me. Would rather not have to buy a new console they put out so we can get games that look 10% better. Great news.

 

[LordOfChaos]

Why are people taking at face value Sony employe talking about their future products ?
Their goals is to sell for now PS4. Which means regardless of their plans for PS5 they will say PS5 could be even decades away because they want maximalize PS4 sales instead suggesting people they should wait for PS5.

IT is basically saying what Nintendo said about WiiU when there were releasing Switch. That they will still support WiiU same as 3DS. Not even a year later and WiiU support is completely dead with 3DS support dying as well as Nintendo moves everything to Switch trying to maximalize platform potential (forcing people to move from 3DS to Switch)

When will next generation begin will be dictated by technological progress and competition.
What that tells us ?

7nm node is effectively done and TSMC already is using it to make stuff while other big one GF is launching mass scale production early next year. This will also be timed with release of both Zen2 processors and Navi GPUs from AMD.
Thing is after than 7nm upgrade there is nothing on horizon to provide another jump like that. So by releasing in at the end of 2019 you are effectively locking up spec of consoles for next 5-7yeras and you are first to market.

Which means both MS and Sony will release their consoles when 7nm will be ready along with AMD new architectures which means end of next year. What is more important both Sony and MS will be looking at situation where they will be using effectively same architecture for the first time ever going from previous gen to next gen, which means they will be able to even release PS5 games that could potentially work on PS4s same way PC games work on lower hardware and it is something which both MS and Sony looks for going by some interesting interviews.

By 2020 or 2021 there will be literally nothing that would improve performance of console which compared to 2019. For significant upgrade you would need to wait at least to 2022 which would be almost 9 years and longest gen ever.

Other than 7nm delay (which seems impossible at this point) i don't see either MS or Sony waiting for 2020 or later.



Look at dates closely. March 2019, March 2021 etc

March 2019 effectively means 2018 sales as it is from march 2018 to march 2019. Which in this case means that they will be releasing console by holiday 2019 which would be in this chart march 2020 which would nicely correlate with chart because 2019 sales would still see PS4 nicely selling while they just release PS5 but 2021 sales on other hand would fall down because people would be moving from PS4 to PS5 and that means overall less games sold (which is prime income method for Sony)

Exactly what I've been thinking. If they wait past 7nm, there's no major gains to be had until 2023+ if fab plans go according to plan (and...Lol to that). By 2019 and 2020, 7nm will be pretty mature, and neither Microsoft nor Sony will want to risk giving up years of marketshare for the meager gains to follow until 5nm.

Heck, even 7nm EUV is in the picture for a 2020 launch, though cost makes 7nm FF more likely.

Early 2020 feels perfect to me. Sneak Zen 2 in there, 7nm, and there's no major leapfrogging gains for a few years after.

 

[Paulxo87]

fall 2020 launch

 

[TheMikado]

Exactly what I've been thinking. If they wait past 7nm, there's no major gains to be had until 2023+ if fab plans go according to plan (and...Lol to that). By 2019 and 2020, 7nm will be pretty mature, and neither Microsoft nor Sony will want to risk giving up years of marketshare for the meager gains to follow until 5nm.

Heck, even 7nm EUV is in the picture for a 2020 launch, though cost makes 7nm FF more likely.

Early 2020 feels perfect to me. Sneak Zen 2 in there, 7nm, and there's no major leapfrogging gains for a few years after.

I think Zen2 is a given even with a Q4 2019 launch. The only question is are we getting Vega/Navi or something in between. But whatever it is it will all be on 7nm.

However I disagree about there not being another leap anytime soon. We should see 3nm as soon as 2021. The slim refresh should be 3nm or below for 2022/23 refresh. There’s also little advantage to waiting if they have any 7nm process at reasonable manufacturing rates. I Early adopters will buy no matter cost and no sense of waiting a year to squeeze a couple more dollars that consumers would absorb anyway.

 

[Heimdall_Xtreme]

I want a ps5 in 2022 with Gravity rush 3 in launch title.

Sony make it real

 

[daibaron]

He never said ps5 is 3 years away, it is just like a politician speaking and saying nothing.

Whats next, people complaining that iphone 8 should last at least until 2021 without any new models before that? And videogaming is serious business, it is not about doing likes on facebook or insta or sending sms.

 

[Panajev2001a]

I think Zen2 is a given even with a Q4 2019 launch. The only question is are we getting Vega/Navi or something in between. But whatever it is it will all be on 7nm.

However I disagree about there not being another leap anytime soon. We should see 3nm as soon as 2021. The slim refresh should be 3nm or below for 2022/23 refresh. There’s also little advantage to waiting if they have any 7nm process at reasonable manufacturing rates. I Early adopters will buy no matter cost and no sense of waiting a year to squeeze a couple more dollars that consumers would absorb anyway.

Considering how much trouble 7nm and the EUV are already bringing even to Intel of all companies, I think we should all either hope for revolutions with memristors and/or trancitors ( https://www.technologyreview.com/s/...omponent-could-revolutionize-electronics/amp/ https://arxiv.org/pdf/1805.05842 ) or simply take with four grains of salts the current manufacturing nodes improvements (production of larger silicon wafers too) timelines.

This is actually something very scary for manufacturers like Intel which have relied for over a decade on manufacturing dominance / a huge lead in semiconductors technology over its rivals to stay ahead of the game and/or competitive even when they had “inferior” products.

Now, when your Intel foundry side advantage means a massiver cost (and getting larger and larger) to get a smaller and smaller advantage over the competition... well then your AMD and your nVIDIA and ARM (Apple, Samsung, and Qualcomm) have a chance at getting back in the Desktop and Server games (partly fuelled by their mobile first profits) and gain a nice foothold there too .

 

[TheMikado]

Considering how much trouble 7nm and the EUV are already bringing even to Intel of all companies, I think we should all either hope for revolutions with memristors and/or trancitors ( https://www.technologyreview.com/s/...omponent-could-revolutionize-electronics/amp/ https://arxiv.org/pdf/1805.05842 ) or simply take with four grains of salts the current manufacturing nodes improvements (production of larger silicon wafers too) timelines.

This is actually something very scary for manufacturers like Intel which have relied for over a decade on manufacturing dominance / a huge lead in semiconductors technology over its rivals to stay ahead of the game and/or competitive even when they had “inferior” products.

Now, when your Intel foundry side advantage means a massiver cost (and getting larger and larger) to get a smaller and smaller advantage over the competition... well then your AMD and your nVIDIA and ARM (Apple, Samsung, and Qualcomm) have a chance at getting back in the Desktop and Server games (partly fuelled by their mobile first profits) and gain a nice foothold there too .

Intel can't even get their 10nm process out in timely fashion.

ARM and AMD(x86) are set to release 7nm now. Judging the industries ability to produce or innovate against Intel who isn't forced to innovate isn't where I would be looking. Its no wonder Intel is poaching talent from other companies just to get itself back in the race. AMD and ARM manufactures are already talking 3nm as well while Intel is stuck just trying to get down to 10nm. The point I'm making is the processor industry is moving forward with or without Intel.

 

[GoldenEye98]

I also believe that the biggest leap for a next gen console would be to release as soon as 7nm is available....which by all accounts should be next year? Waiting after that will give marginal improvements.

I think the PS4 Pro released pro was released fairly quickly after 16nm was available.

 

[Panajev2001a]

Intel can't even get their 10nm process out in timely fashion.

ARM and AMD(x86) are set to release 7nm now. Judging the industries ability to produce or innovate against Intel who isn't forced to innovate isn't where I would be looking. Its no wonder Intel is poaching talent from other companies just to get itself back in the race. AMD and ARM manufactures are already talking 3nm as well while Intel is stuck just trying to get down to 10nm. The point I'm making is the processor industry is moving forward with or without Intel.

Intel has all the reasons to innovate in manufacturing and the competitor’s 7nm for more marketing reasons than because it is that much better than Intel’s proposed 10nm (Intel survived and thrived thanks to keeping manufacturing superiority).

Regardless, as posted in other threads before 7nm EUV is coming with massive challenges and lesser than expected benefits while the projected costs (which seem to be more best case scenarios than not) for 5nm are even bigger (cost of transition is kind of growin exponentially with each node transition and the time between transitions is not being that kind either). The EUV improvements to 7nm (7nm+) seem not worth the wait and the extra cost for console manufacturers and they could present last minute delays and issues.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/1272...-scaling-but-thin-power-and-performance-gains

https://www.eetimes.com/author.asp?section_id=36&doc_id=1333075

[...]

Unless we have big big breakthroughs, betting on manufacturing processes improvements seems the wrong thing to build your business cycle around.

 

[Tarkus98]

I also believe that the biggest leap for a next gen console would be to release as soon as 7nm is available....which by all accounts should be next year? Waiting after that will give marginal improvements.

I think the PS4 Pro released pro was released fairly quickly after 16nm was available.

I thought the Pro was using 14nm though I may certainly be wrong.
Anyway, I think that waiting the extra year (to 2020) will provide better yields on the 7nm chips, perhaps enable EUV to be used and should bring the cost down. I would also hope for a Zen2/Navi combination. 2019 just seems to be rushing things for no real advantages. We may also see memory prices come down allowing more to be crammed into the console.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

I thought the Pro was using 14nm though I may certainly be wrong.
Anyway, I think that waiting the extra year (to 2020) will provide better yields on the 7nm chips, perhaps enable EUV to be used and should bring the cost down. I would also hope for a Zen2/Navi combination. 2019 just seems to be rushing things for no real advantages. We may also see memory prices come down allowing more to be crammed into the console.

14nm is Global Foundries and 16nm (which Sony and Microsoft use for all consoles now) are TSMC.

As far as Sony rushing if going for 2019 then I don't see it like that. 7nm TSMC is already in volume production with the first consumer mobile products (Apple A12 so will ramp in yield quickly) set to launch by Q4 this year so that gives a year to mature further.

PS4 Pro dev kits with actual production APUs were certified by MIC in December 2015 (so probably available before this internally) and PS4 Pro launched November 2016 and Polaris GPUs launched June 2016 IIRC.

 

[Tarkus98]

A

14nm is Global Foundries and 16nm (which Sony and Microsoft use for all consoles now) are TSMC.

As far as Sony rushing if going for 2019 then I don't see it like that. 7nm TSMC is already in volume production with the first consumer mobile products (Apple A12 so will ramp in yield quickly) set to launch by Q4 this year so that gives a year to mature further.

PS4 Pro dev kits with actual production APUs were certified by MIC in December 2015 (so probably available before this internally) and PS4 Pro launched November 2016 and Polaris GPUs launched June 2016 IIRC.

Ah, thanks for the clarification. Also didn’t realize 7nm was already into production. Thought it was later in the year/early next year. Guess things are moving much quicker then I thought Any word on the current yields?

 

[LordOfChaos]

A


Ah, thanks for the clarification. Also didn’t realize 7nm was already into production. Thought it was later in the year/early next year. Guess things are moving much quicker then I thought Any word on the current yields?

Lisa Su gave the guidance 7nm yields were strong at the last shareholders meeting. She couldn't lie about that, but what that specifically means we of course can't know. But they seem optimistic.

It seems like TSMC is having less trouble than Intel at any rate, they went for a more complex patterning and seem to be suffering for that risk. The first 10nm parts are more like Crappy Lake.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

A


Ah, thanks for the clarification. Also didn’t realize 7nm was already into production. Thought it was later in the year/early next year. Guess things are moving much quicker then I thought Any word on the current yields?

No specifics about yields but all the noise from TSMC seems positive at least. Here is one article about HVM starting: https://www.anandtech.com/show/12677/tsmc-kicks-off-volume-production-of-7nm-chips

 

[autoduelist]

8 year cycles, at 50 a year for day 1 buyers, has always seemed about perfect to me. Those who buy after a few years at 300 still hit that 50/year price point.

 

[LordOfChaos]

8 year cycles, at 50 a year for day 1 buyers, has always seemed about perfect to me. Those who buy after a few years at 300 still hit that 50/year price point.

Yeah, thinking about cost per day or year and buying at launch really isn't that different than waiting for the first price drop.Same with something like Apple refurbs, what you save just breaks you even on cost per day.

The flip side is it can also take some months to puzzle out smaller issues like melty joystick rubber, loud launch units with thermal material issues, etc.

I hope they take the time to learn from all those little things, an ARM subsystem powerful enough to not wake the APU at idle, and hopefully to release the 1-2 core reservation consoles often have. I believe the Wii U had no reservation on its PowerPC cores due to the ARM IO and OS core?
Plus the controller enhancements I wanted.
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/wishes-for-ds5-lttp-notes-on-ds4-v2.1462199/

 

[it_wasn't_me]

He never did say PS5 in 3 years. Why all the game sites did a mass Lemmings impression I don't know:

There you go. 2020 launch it is.

 

[FranXico]

He never did say PS5 in 3 years. Why all the game sites did a mass Lemmings impression I don't know:

So, someone pulled that 3 years number out of their arse? What a surprise.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

There you go. 2020 launch it is.

Not necessarily. The financial year missing in the graph is 1st April 2019 to 31st March 2020. The 1st April 2020 to 31st March 2021 figures might be a big loss too compared to the peak of this generation this FY year but we don't know if
FY 2019 is the same/worse/better than the projected FY 2020. If PS5 did launch holiday 2019 then "only" 4 months of losses need to be accounted for but a full year of losses the following financial year shown (FY 2020)?

At least that is how I read it. Could be wrong.

 

[Memorabilia]

Well, since this has turned into a prediction thread, I'll chime in with "Fall 2020 soft launch/Holiday 2020 push".

Personally, feel like this gen has plenty of room to grow (despite the crappy CPUs). Sony, in particular, is really pushing the graphical envelope. I'm looking forward to seeing what can be done before this gen is ready to pass the torch and honestly don't feel any sense of rush to "retire" either my PS4 or Xbones. In a way, it feels like this gen is just getting started. I realize Sony may want to push to next gen based on diminishing profit margins due to a market increasingly saturated with current gen units... and the prospect of ballooning revenues with a new consoles. But, it would oddly feel "too soon" if they ship PS5 in 2019. I suppose we shall see.

 

[chillbrah]

love my ps4!

 

[wtsfox]

If the PS4 and the Xbox one 2 or what ever it may be called releases in 2021 then that means the switch would be 5 years old. Maybe Nintendo could release the switch 2 then. It would be the first time that all 3 would release new hardware in the same year.

 

[Dr. Buni]

I am not in a hurry. What is the point of a new generation right now? Keep the PS4 around for a couple more years. Longer generations are the best. Don't be a Nintendo with its four to five years console cycles.

 

[LordOfChaos]

There you go. 2020 launch it is.

2020 makes all the sense for several technological overlaps. Waiting till 2021 was a bit puzzling, but could have been for yields, but I'm still in team 2020. Mature 7nm, Zen 2, Navi and NextGen features they can pull from, etc.

Sony nor Microsoft will want to give up years of marketshare lead for the next big gain after that. 2020 will set up the consoles to launch with technology that'll keep them relevant for a good time.

 

[sadaiyappan]

Guess I'll buy a pro then.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

2020 makes all the sense for several technological overlaps. Waiting till 2021 was a bit puzzling, but could have been for yields, but I'm still in team 2020. Mature 7nm, Zen 2, Navi and NextGen features they can pull from, etc.

Sony nor Microsoft will want to give up years of marketshare lead for the next big gain after that. 2020 will set up the consoles to launch with technology that'll keep them relevant for a good time.

Is the bold referring to the WSJ article? If so it seems to be a case of the reporter (Takashi Mochizuki) adding 2+2 and getting 5.

Kodera specifically said he couldn't talk about PS5 in the Q&A section of the IR Day so any article referring to it are the reporters own interpretation/opinion. I still say holiday 2019 right now with 2020 being very possible.

I could actually see Microsoft going a year later again for two reasons: 1, higher clocks of the same/similar tech+more RAM a la One X and 2, even more importantly, an extra year for their first-party investment to bear fruit.