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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

BigBooper

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Here is an excerpt of a summary I have to do for work. Forgive the broken grammar.

If I were a betting man, the stock markets for 2021 is going to be a very slow year.

Household Evictions & New Home Buying
an extension in the CDC order on pausing evictions for 3 months starting January 2021. Depressed rates are allowing homes to refinance their mortgages and access cheaper home equity, providing them with ability to payoff short term debts. The mortgage debt service ratio has fallen to its lowest in a decade around 3.0% with the average 30-year M-Rate hitting a low of around 3.0% as well.

Geo-preferences are shifing new home buying away from urban city centers to sub urban properties, this is expect to continue well into 2021 as low rates feed consumer appetite for new homes. Homebuilder’s outlooks continue to peak at all time highs with expectations mimicking behaviors in 30-year mortgage yields.

Average household debt has fallen to levels not seen since 1980 to around 13.0. However, we expect this figure to rise going forward, alongside the modest and sequential increases in inflation and taxes.

Inflation
Inflation will continue to remain artificially depressed as companies have yet to transfer COVID-19 related costs onto the consumer in a meaningful manner. Fiscal and monetary interventions have proven effect in cancelling additional costs to businesses however, these hidden burdens are expected to extend well beyond next the business cycle.

Inflation has remained stubbornly sticky below the 2.0% target prior to COVID-19 as factors of production remain easily transferable across borders. This dynamic is expected to change going forward, as supply chains shift homeward and as business diversify these chains away from China.

With the larger a than anticipated monetary intervention into capital and lending markets, investors will observe sequential increases in the normal and new form of inflation hedging which includes gold, commodities and cryptocurrencies.


State Taxation
Budgetary shortfalls for all 50 states are noticeably higher this year because of COVID-19. States with the largest exposure the virus and the subsequent lock-down policy are expected to raise taxes by an average consensus of 0.8% -1.0% per current amount. The federal reserve has extended its MLF program which includes adjust the duration of the bonds under it purview. Credit spreads have historically remained relatively tight in the muni market with only 9.0% of municipal bonds failing into the lowest grade. This relationship is however expected to change as local governments battle the rising social costs associated with lock downs. While the Federal Reserve is expected to continue is MLF program, its scope is limited with the expected raise in inflation.
This matches what I've been expecting. I suspect if you're in a good market for it, real estate will be the best investment next year starting in late spring/summer. I think there's going to be another housing crash.
 

ManofOne

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This matches what I've been expecting. I suspect if you're in a good market for it, real estate will be the best investment next year starting in late spring/summer. I think there's going to be another housing crash.


I dunno, they have good indicators to signal a housing crash now but I keep watching investment behaviors in housing REITS
 

TrainedRage

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Wouldn’t the market need to tank for several weeks to indicate a housing crash? Typically the market is like 6 months ahead. I’m not seeing it, but maybe we are just at the start.
 
Oct 26, 2018
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Wow. What a head fake so far in the markets today.

Huge downer in the pre-markets due to Europe news, markets start off bad, it's now 1 pm and Dow and Nasdaq are now both about break even.

(Fuck, I didn't take the plunge on Tattooed Chef or Velodyne at $17-ish each)
 
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BigBooper

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Wow. What a head fake so far in the markets today.

Huge downer in the pre-markets due to Europe news, markets start off bad, it's now 1 pm and Dow and Nasdaq are now both about break even.

(Fuck, I didn't take the plunge on Tattooed Chef or Velodyne at $17-ish each)
Think this is a sign of the market being nervous?
 

ManofOne

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Think this is a sign of the market being nervous?

It’s an overreaction. Big Tech is getting a huge boost today. MSFT got buy ratings from some of the best analyst.

also Rich ppl are moving money away from us markets. This month been crazy as hell at the transaction desk
 
Oct 26, 2018
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Think this is a sign of the market being nervous?
It’s an overreaction. Big Tech is getting a huge boost today. MSFT got buy ratings from some of the best analyst.

also Rich ppl are moving money away from us markets. This month been crazy as hell at the transaction desk
I scaled back most of my stocks the past month so my portfolio is lean. My biggest volatile stock is RMG which is at an all time high at $25. Got in a month ago at $16 and change. I'm not sure to sell it, or roll the dice on the merger meeting next week thinking it can hit $40 or more like QS like a gamble. Most of these $10 SPACS edged up at the same time on EV acquisitions. Most trended up to ~$15, but there's some outliers.

QS is the posterboy of volatility SPAC owners like me pray their SPAC becomes. Check the stock price action of QS in the past month. Stupid.

In the new year if things seem settled down, I might dip back into Trivago for a third time as it went back down again, or get back into Lightspeed POS.
 
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ManofOne

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I never touch any of those stocks. Actually went 60-30-10. With 30 in cash and 10 in commodities.

I think next year software and storage is going to do really well and outperform the larger market
 
Oct 26, 2018
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I never touch any of those stocks. Actually went 60-30-10. With 30 in cash and 10 in commodities.

I think next year software and storage is going to do really well and outperform the larger market
Maybe I'll get back into HPE. Made 15% in a couple months. It rose the past bunch of months from $9 to $12, back down to $11 and change. It's a slow creeper though with all the shares.

But all it takes is a couple lucky days and it can hit $14 or $15 and suddenly you're up 30%. Even pays a 4% yield.

All the SPACs are crazy.
 
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OSC

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2021 is already largely priced in....very fwd looking market.
But won't all the money printing cause inflation in stocks. Especially if more checks come under Biden.

The artificial inflation measures say inflation is low, but the reality is that inflation is high when it comes to assets like real estate and stocks.
 

ManofOne

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But won't all the money printing cause inflation in stocks. Especially if more checks come under Biden.

The artificial inflation measures say inflation is low, but the reality is that inflation is high when it comes to assets like real estate and stocks.

I think inflation has remained relatively low for two reasons.

1) The lack of spending by consumers and higher savings
2) Cash preservation by companies which has translated them in also not raising prices in a meaningful way

If you look at the velocity of money, the dip always follows massive monetary outflows and lower interest rates. In this case due to the lack of spending you're seeing a unconventional dip way pass it natural cycle. Neither primary groups are spending as much as they normally would. Household savings has increased substantially over the last 4 years.

So once the economy reopens by mid march early summer, you're going to see that rise inflation and alongside those tax increases which would re-balance VM but decrease consumer pocketbooks.






 
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ManofOne

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Sold Party City (PRTY), it isn't worth the price its trading at now. Was a 5.80 stock imo. So I sold it.
 

BigBooper

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Put a chunk into Apple to hold for a long time.

I was planning to anyways, but the EV, Battery, an Chips announcements made me get in.
 

ManofOne

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Put a chunk into Apple to hold for a long time.

I was planning to anyways, but the EV, Battery, an Chips announcements made me get in.

Apple is a good hold regardless. It can easily move further into the software market than hardware. Its cloud business is so undervalued.
 
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God Enel

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Would you guys sell Sony stocks ? Or should I wait? What’s the expectation for the next year?
 

Amory

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I have a lot of Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) shares

This year has been a killer tbh. The fomo is consuming me. Vertex should have had an amazing year, stockwise. But it hasn't. And I'm still hesitant to sell it, because the worst case scenario for me at this point is to give up and move into something else, only to have it finally take off.
 
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AmuroChan

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Would you guys sell Sony stocks ? Or should I wait? What’s the expectation for the next year?

Sold mine at $95. Bought it at $78. Happy with the return. With PS5 inventory scarce, PS4 Pro allegedly discontinued, no huge AAA 1st party game in Q1, and the movie industry in the gutter, not sure how much higher the stock is going to move in the near future, assuming their other divisions remain status quo.
 
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ManofOne

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From my bloomberg feed

U.S. filings for unemployment benefits declined for the first time in three weeks but remained elevated, while consumer spending and incomes fell in November by more than forecast, underscoring the coronavirus’s drag on the economy.

Initial jobless claims in regular state programs dropped by 89,000 to 803,000 in the week ended Dec. 19, according to the Labor Department Wednesday, compared with the median projection of economists for 880,000. On an unadjusted basis, claims fell by about 73,000.

A separate Commerce Department report showed consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of the economy, dropped 0.4% last month, while personal income dropped 1.1%.
 
Oct 26, 2018
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Got to say, I had the itchy finger.

I'm rolling the dice on SPACs. Got into FIII (Forum) and VGAC (Vrigin) at $12.50 and $11.50. Up a bit each, and my RMG is almost $30. Got in at $16 and change. RMG is the most finnicky stock in my portfolio as a merger decision is coming next week. It might do nothing, it might pop.

To be honest I don't give a shit what deals they got. I'm just trying to ride the wave and will get out at some point.

Many SPACS had trended up to $15-20 (almost all of them start at $10), so I simply looked for ones that barely popped and am looking for short term boxcars. Then dump them.
 
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BigBooper

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Got to say, I had the itchy finger.

I'm rolling the dice on SPACs. Got into FIII (Forum) and VGAC (Vrigin) at $12.50 and $11.50. Up a bit each, and my RMG is almost $30. Got in at $16 and change. RMG is the most finnicky stock in my portfolio as a merger decision is coming next week. It might do nothing, it might pop.

To be honest I don't give a shit what deals they got. I'm just trying to ride the wave and will get out at some point.

Many SPACS had trended up to $15-20 (almost all of them start at $10), so I simply looked for ones that barely popped and am looking for short term boxcars. Then dump them.
Good luck. They are kind of like playing lottery scratch offs lol. I have some in IPOC and THCB, so they're working out pretty well for me.
 
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ManofOne

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Got to say, I had the itchy finger.

I'm rolling the dice on SPACs. Got into FIII (Forum) and VGAC (Vrigin) at $12.50 and $11.50. Up a bit each, and my RMG is almost $30. Got in at $16 and change. RMG is the most finnicky stock in my portfolio as a merger decision is coming next week. It might do nothing, it might pop.

To be honest I don't give a shit what deals they got. I'm just trying to ride the wave and will get out at some point.

Many SPACS had trended up to $15-20 (almost all of them start at $10), so I simply looked for ones that barely popped and am looking for short term boxcars. Then dump them.


Any ETFs holding virgin?


I sold 80% of my holdings in BJRI yesterday (335% return). I looking to offload square but I think its value puts it market cap around $350 bil.
 

BigBooper

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Y'all gonna get in on the BABA dip? It's one of those that you know are guaranteed to go up, maybe after the transition, but I'm still too scared.
 

ManofOne

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Y'all gonna get in on the BABA dip? It's one of those that you know are guaranteed to go up, maybe after the transition, but I'm still too scared.

I have BABA (about 200 shares) in my portfolio at 218. I think its going to be a struggle for BABA next year, i put some money in JD.com as a balancing measure thou.
 
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Oct 26, 2018
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Any ETFs holding virgin?


I sold 80% of my holdings in BJRI yesterday (335% return). I looking to offload square but I think its value puts it market cap around $350 bil.
I have no idea about Virgin. It's so raw, there isn't even any news about mergers or speculation. It's rode the wave of SPACs as it's trended up $1-2 with nothing.

As for the Chinese online stocks mentioned above, BABA at $500 billion is a steep hill for me to dip into. JD at $133 billion too. Just skimming, I put MOMO on my watch list. Another Chinese stock, but it makes profit and it's been sliding the past year. Maybe be due to for a rebound. Only a $13 stock.
 

ManofOne

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Trump signed the stimulus bill. Dow futures +130, Nasdaq futures +70.

Good sign for tomorrow's markets.

BABA is down almost 30% from its 52 week high and I am watching it heavily. I bought some shares at 222, I think it can reach as low as 210 so keep watching the stock
 

ape2man

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BABA is down almost 30% from its 52 week high and I am watching it heavily. I bought some shares at 222, I think it can reach as low as 210 so keep watching the stock
BABA is over... CHINA is clamping down on ANT the one growth market for the BABA group. And there is a anti trust case coming. And BABA can be delisted in 3 years .... its over for BABA..
 

ManofOne

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BABA is over... CHINA is clamping down on ANT the one growth market for the BABA group. And there is a anti trust case coming. And BABA can be delisted in 3 years .... its over for BABA..

Ant is financial, BABA has cloud and e commerce.

and BABA owns 33% of ant
 
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ape2man

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ManofOne

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shoegaze

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So I've decided I want to retire in 10 years (as good a goal as any I guess), and see only two options to get there. Business or stocks. I won't be able to retire by selling myself for hourly rate as there's not that many hours in a 10 year period, and rising my salary doesn't seem time efficient as I lose 4 years just by learning. Even if I double or triple my wage, the remaining 6 years are not enough to reach the target of 1mil, especially considering the fact that I won't be making that from the start. Safe bet to reach retirement in 20 years timeframe though.

Business. Don't know the first thing about it. Seems to have a high barrier of entry. Don't have the mental models to operate in it. Seems a safer bet than stocks though and the draw to master this field is very curious. The hardest part about it would be completely changing my mental operating system as it's not fit for the business world. Lots of trying and failing and using drugs / meditation to force an adaptive process. At the end of it, I'm not sure I'd be good at it, and could be left with a wasted effort and a changed worldview.

Stocks. Keep working where I work, and use all the free time to experiment and slowly start from toetipping to full body bombs to the stock market. I might just loose all my savings because we might start having a bear market soon, but I might be able to luck out. I'm good at gathering and connecting knowledge, I can read to no end, I can control my emotional state to a large degree. But I'm not sure how viable it is to make good money on stocks and outperform good trackers. Anybody here outperforms them? How should I start in this field?
 

ManofOne

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So I've decided I want to retire in 10 years (as good a goal as any I guess), and see only two options to get there. Business or stocks. I won't be able to retire by selling myself for hourly rate as there's not that many hours in a 10 year period, and rising my salary doesn't seem time efficient as I lose 4 years just by learning. Even if I double or triple my wage, the remaining 6 years are not enough to reach the target of 1mil, especially considering the fact that I won't be making that from the start. Safe bet to reach retirement in 20 years timeframe though.

Business. Don't know the first thing about it. Seems to have a high barrier of entry. Don't have the mental models to operate in it. Seems a safer bet than stocks though and the draw to master this field is very curious. The hardest part about it would be completely changing my mental operating system as it's not fit for the business world. Lots of trying and failing and using drugs / meditation to force an adaptive process. At the end of it, I'm not sure I'd be good at it, and could be left with a wasted effort and a changed worldview.

Stocks. Keep working where I work, and use all the free time to experiment and slowly start from toetipping to full body bombs to the stock market. I might just loose all my savings because we might start having a bear market soon, but I might be able to luck out. I'm good at gathering and connecting knowledge, I can read to no end, I can control my emotional state to a large degree. But I'm not sure how viable it is to make good money on stocks and outperform good trackers. Anybody here outperforms them? How should I start in this field?

I'll give you the same advice I give clients

1) Determine your allowable equity (how much equity you can tap i.e home, car etc)
2) Determine how much of your equity you're willing to risk.
3) Determine what your financial goals are (retirement in 10 years, etc)
4) Determine your risk appetite
5) Determine what measures of success you're looking for when measuring your portfolio.
6) Determine how you want to allocated your equity into various asset classes.

There are others but these are the main ones.

Also bear markets don't matter, bear markets are shortlived and data shows asset prices rebalance fairly quickly. So just control your emotions. Don't do hi volatility stocks, look at strong balance sheet and growth stocks (THERE ARE PLENTY).
 
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shoegaze

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I'll give you the same advice I give clients

1) Determine your allowable equity (how much equity you can tap i.e home, car etc)
2) Determine how much of your equity you're willing to risk.
3) Determine what your financial goals are (retirement in 10 years, etc)
4) Determine your risk appetite
5) Determine what measures of success you're looking for when measuring your portfolio.
6) Determine how you want to allocated your equity into various asset classes.

There are others but these are the main ones.

Also bear markets don't matter, bear markets are shortlived and data shows asset prices rebalance fairly quickly. So just control your emotions. Don't do hi volatility stocks, look at strong balance sheet and growth stocks (THERE ARE PLENTY).
Thanks for the reply!
1. Only what I have sitting in the bank as I can't put my family at risk. Roughly a year's wage.
2. Only what I have sitting in the bank.
3. Financial security in 10 years. I want to be able to not pay too much attention to my wealth management while receiving a fixed income each month.
4. I'd rather not end up with 0 on my balance sheet, but I need to have a shot at making it to my goal. So, taking on risks, but well-calculated ones?
5. Having bought-in cheap and having confidence in my internal estimations of companies I'm investing in? Having some equity (10-30%) in high-risk high reward plays that don't feel like gambling? Hard to answer this question as you're basically asking how would success look whilst being in the thick of it all. The only real answer is with an internal state - unwavering confidence, for example.
6. Doesn't matter much as long as it's possible to reach my goal by year 10.

Just as I'm writing this I feel I need some solid framework to make this work with stocks. Any recommended reading/watching? How to build the foundations? What are the foundations of stock trading? Is it maths? graphs? micro or macroeconomics? critical thinking? psychology? neuroscience? game theory? Law? networking?

How is it possible for you to say, with confidence, that there are plenty of growth stocks with strong balance sheets, while I'm not even confident in the weather forecast, which is somewhat of a science? How do I get to this point?
 

Taxexemption

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Thanks for the reply!
1. Only what I have sitting in the bank as I can't put my family at risk. Roughly a year's wage.
2. Only what I have sitting in the bank.
3. Financial security in 10 years. I want to be able to not pay too much attention to my wealth management while receiving a fixed income each month.
4. I'd rather not end up with 0 on my balance sheet, but I need to have a shot at making it to my goal. So, taking on risks, but well-calculated ones?
5. Having bought-in cheap and having confidence in my internal estimations of companies I'm investing in? Having some equity (10-30%) in high-risk high reward plays that don't feel like gambling? Hard to answer this question as you're basically asking how would success look whilst being in the thick of it all. The only real answer is with an internal state - unwavering confidence, for example.
6. Doesn't matter much as long as it's possible to reach my goal by year 10.

Just as I'm writing this I feel I need some solid framework to make this work with stocks. Any recommended reading/watching? How to build the foundations? What are the foundations of stock trading? Is it maths? graphs? micro or macroeconomics? critical thinking? psychology? neuroscience? game theory? Law? networking?

How is it possible for you to say, with confidence, that there are plenty of growth stocks with strong balance sheets, while I'm not even confident in the weather forecast, which is somewhat of a science? How do I get to this point?



Any trades based on growth or anything like that, the market will change based on new information. If you have a trading strategy that works use it, but don't plan for it to work forever. In fact you should plan that any trading strategy you have that works will fail at some point. If you want to base your retirement on something, in my opinion you should base it off of dividends. Here is a formula


((Amount you need per month in retirement)*(12))/(.04)


Or in other words, multiply the amount you need per month in retirement times twelve, then divide that number by the rate of interest you think you can get on dividends. So if I want 3,000 per month income, I multiply that by 12 to get 36,000 which is the amount of dividends I need to receive in the year. Then you divide 36,000 by dividend percentage you expect to receive, I put 4%, which gives you 900,000. To me that checks out, you need in my opinion about a million dollars worth of investments to have a reasonably comfortable low class level retirement.


Unless you are starting with a lot of money in the first place, or have a really high income, 10 years seems unrealistic. I am trying to do something similar to what you want, I'm mostly buying exchange traded funds with a decent dividend. I buy funds because I don't really know what will happen to the broader market with much certainty. I re-invest the money I make from dividends. I have my own retirement calculator on an excel spreadsheet that I made. In order to get to 36,000 a year before I can collect social security, I would need to start investing about 1k per month, which is more than I am investing now.


Then again, I may be misunderstanding your goal. My goal is to never have to work a job again, and live off dividends. Unfortunately, I will need to get a raise and cut my expenses a little for this to be an achievable goal. For me to quit work even in 20 years, I would need to up my investments to about 2k a month by my current calculation.
 
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mango drank

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Mid-October, I was about to buy some TSLA. At the last minute, I decided to listen to people who were saying it was overpriced, and I randomly went with NVDA instead. Now, 2.5 months later, TSLA is up a whopping 50%, and NVDA has been down ever since. I didn't foresee Nvidia having these supply issues (I definitely should have), and I figured the ARM buy would generate more interest in Nvidia.

Oh well, I apparently already own a bunch of TSLA as part of VTSAX. Bought some AAPL too (also already part of VTSAX). The individual stock buys were me trying out active investing for the first time for the hell of it. I'm breaking even as far as that goes, so Baby's First Active Investing isn't a disaster yet.
 

CrankyJay™

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Largely ignored today. Indexes were up but all of my individual equities were down. Nibbled a few shares here and there. I’m ready for 2021.
 

ManofOne

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Mid-October, I was about to buy some TSLA. At the last minute, I decided to listen to people who were saying it was overpriced, and I randomly went with NVDA instead. Now, 2.5 months later, TSLA is up a whopping 50%, and NVDA has been down ever since. I didn't foresee Nvidia having these supply issues (I definitely should have), and I figured the ARM buy would generate more interest in Nvidia.

Oh well, I apparently already own a bunch of TSLA as part of VTSAX. Bought some AAPL too (also already part of VTSAX). The individual stock buys were me trying out active investing for the first time for the hell of it. I'm breaking even as far as that goes, so Baby's First Active Investing isn't a disaster yet.

NVDA supply issues will be fixed eventually and it's still a good stock. I played Taiwan Semiconductors instead and up 25% on it.
 
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ManofOne

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I’ve decided I need to start getting into stocks, does gaf have a good starters guide?

Try simulator first. Familiarize yourself with the market. If you're good with maths, I can recommend a fantastic book on analyzing stocks.
 

TrainedRage

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I’ve decided I need to start getting into stocks, does gaf have a good starters guide?
Buy some ETF's and diversify. Avoid single product companies. Know that TSLA is over valued.

I picked some good American manufacturing stocks early last year and those have been good to me...
Ford and GE along with Apple have been slow but relatively steady and cheap.

Look into the medical field with ETF's.

Understand that the Baby boomer generation is nearing total retirement and will have lots of money to spend on home care/ health products/ life longevity.

Those big "evil" corps like P&G and Phillip Morris will make you money.

Buy the dip, typically sell early in the day and buy late in the day if you can.
 
Oct 26, 2018
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Talk about volatility. I sold RMG and ran for the hills. Almost doubled my money in a month. If this stock rebounds after the merger and zooms up like QS I'll be kicking my own ass. But couldn't take the 10-20% daily swings. Even the pre-markets could be up/down 10-20%.

Ill probably dump all my GAN tomorrow too for a tiny gain..... like 2%. Stock isn't moving. And I've had it since IPO during the summer. Will move on.

After I dump GAN, I've liquidated so many stocks the past month I'll be down to only about 7. Will start fresh in Jan. Doesn't seem like the Biden/Trump election did anything which is good. I thought a Biden win would tank markets as he's big on tax hikes. You never know though. He hasn't got the keys yet. A market correction may still come.
 
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ManofOne

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Sold and fully closed 3 positions, CRWD, BJRI and SQ

Going deeper into cloud - Going to increase my holdings of TWLO and add more BABA.