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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

ManofOne

Plus Member
Inflation data shows core inflation at 3.6%. I too believe inflation to be sticky around 3.5% - 5.0% range. I expect it to get worse around Christmas and Winter.

I am now FULLY removed from the short term transitory camp. No way inflation will hit 2.0% y o.y


 
So tip trade of the week. If you were like me you bought re opening stocks (not a large percentage of your portoflio), mostly mall and clothing stocks have been rallying for good cause.

Up 73.0% on my clothes and malls stock combined (will be cashing out soon). EXPR for example has been on a good run (still not a good company to invest over the long term)




He's climbin up your nostrils
He's snatchin' your people up
Hide yo' kids, hide yo' wife,
Hide yo' kids, hide yo' wife,
Hide yo' kids, hide yo' wife,
And sell yo' stocks cuz delta variant will take your life
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Inflation data shows core inflation at 3.6%. I too believe inflation to be sticky around 3.5% - 5.0% range. I expect it to get worse around Christmas and Winter.

I am now FULLY removed from the short term transitory camp. No way inflation will hit 2.0% y o.y



ManOfOne,

Based on the inflation info and what your sentiment is, what sectors or stocks you looking at going forward. I just sold a decent winner today (+15-20% in less than 3 weeks) and now got roughly 40% cash sitting there.

I know you said you got a lot of cash on the sides. Perhaps you going to wait it out and dive back in later?
 
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HoodWinked

Member
what the fuck man nike doing some meme stock shit. yup this is where people's stim checks went, luxury apparel.

Mase8sJ.png
 
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godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
what the fuck man nike doing some meme stock shit. yup this is where people's stim checks went, luxury apparel.

Mase8sJ.png
WSB doesn’t feel organic anymore.
The professional stock manipulators must have cracked the code for herding Reddit masses into pumping their desired positions.
 

ManofOne

Plus Member
ManOfOne,

Based on the inflation info and what your sentiment is, what sectors or stocks you looking at going forward. I just sold a decent winner today (+15-20% in less than 3 weeks) and now got roughly 40% cash sitting there.

I know you said you got a lot of cash on the sides. Perhaps you going to wait it out and dive back in later?

I personally don't think any sector is safe but i'm long on "productivity" stocks

"Productivity Portfolio should include companies that produce labor-augmenting technologies, including semiconductors, robots, 5G communication, 3D manufacturing, and cloud and quantum computing.
Investors should also look for nontech companies that are investing in technology. Yardeni says that’s especially happening across the consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, and healthcare sectors. "

And long on Financials as they are investing in tech heavily.
 
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JORMBO

Darkness no more
I dumped my BABA earlier this week one afternoon. It's been down since Fall and has been pretty stagnate. Plus I've never really liked supporting a company tied to the Chinese government. I've been holding off on dropping it but finally did it. Of course the next morning it shoots up and has done that every day since. I bought it cheap a few years ago so I still made a decent amount off of it. Oh well.
 
So apparently Canada is raising rates faster and by more than the fed which is surprising to me since inflation is more in America than it is in Canada and Canada has already started tapering.
Forexlive Image View

I've been paying so much attention to what the fed is doing I know more about the US than I do about my own country lol.
 

ManofOne

Plus Member
So apparently Canada is raising rates faster and by more than the fed which is surprising to me since inflation is more in America than it is in Canada and Canada has already started tapering.
Forexlive Image View

I've been paying so much attention to what the fed is doing I know more about the US than I do about my own country lol.



Canada doesn't have the reserve currency status like the states so this is probably a FX issue.
 

godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
Good article on the conditions affecting wood prices for those interested.


The price of wood is a major factor in the price of new housing development. It sounds to me like house prices will just continue going up.


Probably the mindset of "I didn't get to really shop last year so let me by 2x the amount of clothes to make up for that"

The statistic is percent change, not net spend. Considering people stopped buying clothes due to lockdowns, it shouldn't be a surprise that even a subtle positive change in the market makes up for a massive movement.
With the acceptance of telecommuting, I see the market for clothes decreasing long term. I am still convinced this is a false signal to boost positions in these shrinking industries.
 
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Fantastic post.

I knew a crash was coming.... the writing has been on the walls for some time. This just goes to prove it.
I know you're following the meme stocks but what's the general consensus on how things will play out with GME? I've read a good amount of the DD on reddit and while it's very thorough and well researched it seems like there's still an alternative where shorts will be able to slowly (yet still somewhat painfully) exit their positions without the massive squeeze. Maybe I just haven't done enough reading but a lot of this still seems to ride on a wing and a prayer.

One thing that's impressive though is the apparent dedication. Is the squeeze more dependent on everyone continuing to buy and hold more than anything? If so that's pretty fascinating. Like a deranged MLM scheme that actually works the way you were told it would and everyone gets rich.
 

CloudNull

Banned
I know you're following the meme stocks but what's the general consensus on how things will play out with GME? I've read a good amount of the DD on reddit and while it's very thorough and well researched it seems like there's still an alternative where shorts will be able to slowly (yet still somewhat painfully) exit their positions without the massive squeeze. Maybe I just haven't done enough reading but a lot of this still seems to ride on a wing and a prayer.

One thing that's impressive though is the apparent dedication. Is the squeeze more dependent on everyone continuing to buy and hold more than anything? If so that's pretty fascinating. Like a deranged MLM scheme that actually works the way you were told it would and everyone gets rich.
That is the thing about this.... no one knows how it plays out.

The DD on AMC and GME all makes sense statistically but there's seems to be a lot of illegality that is not being prosecuted. The fact that naked shorts are being openly discussed is a win but the fact that GME hasn't mooned 6 months later makes me think that no one really knows the timeline on this.

I am in the boat that hedge funds time is coming but they are suppressing the squeeze as long as possible. There are rumors that they are diversifying their portfolio by buying up all the houses like Block Rock to weather the looming crash. If we entertain this idea, it does come off as a much more logical explanation to all the houses being bought, than many other..... conspiratorial ideas that try to explain what is happening.

I am ride or die on this whole thing. Either the memes stocks moon or I hold forever taking a loss. All my money in memes stock is money that I can afford to loose.
 
I'm looking at Sofi and Plby

both are down from their highs
I bought up Sofi, was watching it like a hawk because I knew the lock up was ending and bought close to the bottom. I heard there's another lock up ending in a month so I'm considering if I should dump in a week or so and rebuy or just hold through it.
 
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HoodWinked

Member
I bought up Sofi, was watching it like a hawk because I knew the lock up was ending and bought close to the bottom. I heard there's another lock up ending in a month so I'm considering if I should dump in a week or so and rebuy or just hold through it.
Ya that's probably a good thing to lookout for.

I bought in at 19.12 so up just barely.

update: damn now i'm red
 
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godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
I bought more Google shares today. My old thesis with Google was that Stadia or Waymo or some Google X breakthrough was going to propel Google forward for the next 10 years, but then today as the company I work for (also in the ads industry) hit another revenue milestone, I figured, “fuck it, why not” and jumped the gun.

I hate Google, but they have made >40% return of my investment in the past 3 years.

People continue doubling down in their addiction to screens which means companies like the one I work for or Google have a greater opportunity to serve ads.

 
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godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
I'm guessing it has to do with Microsoft's JEDI Pentagon contract being cancelled.

Amazon has another chance to get in on that govt money
Yes, it is this. The contract is worth 10Bn, and Microsoft won it during the Trump administration.
Amazon cried foul saying that the White House had influenced the bid decision; Trump isn’t fond of Amazon due to the fact Bezoz owns the Washington Post and other media that ran campaigns against the Republican Party.
An investigation was conducted that found no interference from the White House.
Nevertheless, with Trump gone, the contract was magically rescinded and Amazon and Microsoft have top bid again.

Weird shit going on with our government to favor Amazon. However, Microsoft software used by the government was found to have been penetrated by hackers during the last year, so that’s perhaps an argument against Microsoft.

I invest in both, Amazon and Microsoft
 

zeorhymer

Member
Weird shit going on with our government to favor Amazon. However, Microsoft software used by the government was found to have been penetrated by hackers during the last year, so that’s perhaps an argument against Microsoft.
Not really. Amazon is salty that SpaceX won the contract for NASA instead of Blue Origin. This is probably a way to muscle back in with the Feds by lining up various senator's pockets.
 

godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
Not really. Amazon is salty that SpaceX won the contract for NASA instead of Blue Origin. This is probably a way to muscle back in with the Feds by lining up various senator's pockets.
I agree with your line of thinking, but I also feel Microsoft should be liable for the hacks experienced last year on their software to some degree. Not that they should have lost the JEDI contract though.
 
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Small and medium cap companies are getting hammered, there's a huge run to large cap companies. The small companies I'm invested in are all expected to kill it in their upcoming earnings in a month so I'm not worried about this temporary fall but its weird to see this.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Same boat guys. After hitting my all time high a week or two ago, I've sunk about 3% since. Just a steady trickle down most days. No giant drops.
 

GHG

Member
What is? And what would be the play against stocks from falling?

Sell covered calls (although it might be a bit late for that now to get the best premiums), buy protective puts, or if you're ballsy simply shorting the market.

You can take out "indirect" short positions by taking up positions in inverse ETF's.
 
Same boat guys. After hitting my all time high a week or two ago, I've sunk about 3% since. Just a steady trickle down most days. No giant drops.

Hit ATH last week in my cash account, which was about $56k, down to $53k now and I haven't really been doing any trading for the past 2 months. Just leaving it alone. I have a little over $5k sitting in cash to invest if there are any phenomenal drops.
 

Ellery

Member
Sell covered calls (although it might be a bit late for that now to get the best premiums), buy protective puts, or if you're ballsy simply shorting the market.

You can take out "indirect" short positions by taking up positions in inverse ETF's.

That sounds good :messenger_bicep:

Can't do options here. They are much more amazing in the US.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Yesterday, my portfolio rebounded and ended up only down literally $3! Today was a nice jump. So tempted to jump back in. I'm sitting at 50% cash.
 
this is just getting comical like clockwork my 401k contribution again buying the top again on another high day.

Lately I'm just going into dividend ETF's because I view the prices on most of what I want to be high. I have an automatic transfer that just went through, on Monday I'm probably going into XLU, a utility ETF, and POTX. XLU for the dividend, and because I view utilities as relatively safe. As for POTX, I'll explain my thinking in the following paragraph.


POTX is a cannabis ETF. This is a long play for me, I am of the belief that legalization will happen on the federal level within the next decade, and that either right before or when it does there will be a huge rush into cannabis stocks, and that their prices will be driven up to completely ridiculous levels for a short period of time. This is speculation, it's what I expect to happen, but who knows. I've been wrong about plenty. It's entirely possible that there will be a cultural shift, or that this is an issue that congress chooses not to deal with until a lot farther into the future. If legalization is more than a decade off, I wouldn't be surprised if this turned out to be a poor investment compared to my other investments.
 
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