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[jonno394]

If they get like 200k out there for Kart, and then average around 40k a week with marginal bumps it'd be possible...

Nah, 2m is definitely within reach by end of September, 3m is a pipe dream because it'd look like as follows:

600k at present, 24 Weeks until end of September
mk8 and Splatoon 2 weeks get 250k each (1.1m)
That leaves 22 non big game release weeks to sell 1.9m. very big, almost impossible ask.

 

[AdventureRacing]

Nah, 2m is definitely within reach by end of September, 3m is a pipe dream because it'd look like as follows:

600k at present, 24 Weeks until end of September
mk8 and Splatoon 2 weeks get 250k each (1.1m)
That leaves 22 non big game release weeks to sell 1.9m. very big, almost impossible ask.

That's being very generous with the bumps for MK8 and splatoon 2 as well. No way it reaches those sort of sales figures. As I said previously if it's really selling that fast before getting MH, Pokemon, animal crossing, DQ etc than that would mean the switch is basically the second coming of the DS. No way it happens.

 

[jonno394]

That's being very generous with the bumps for MK8 and splatoon 2 as well. No way it reaches those sort of sales figures. As I said previously if it's really selling that fast before getting MH, Pokemon, animal crossing, DQ etc than that would mean the switch is basically the second coming of the DS. No way it happens.

Yeah i think some peoples expectations definitely need to be checked. I went with 250k just as a figure i thought could be the most they'd sell. I'm not expecting that, more like 125k tbh.

It's going to be an interesting few months with the mc threads though tbh!

 

[phantasmic_glaive]

Yeah i think some peoples expectations definitely need to be checked. I went with 250k just as a figure i thought could be the most they'd sell. I'm not expecting that, more like 125k tbh.

It's going to be an interesting few months with the mc threads though tbh!

I can see it.
Honestly crazy shit has been happening in this industry lately. 1 million + for very niche games like; Nioh, Persona 5 and Nier. Selling more Zelda than systems themselves, or just this year all together.

I'm getting MK cause I want another game for Switch.
I dunno..

 

[Alrus]

That's being very generous with the bumps for MK8 and splatoon 2 as well. No way it reaches those sort of sales figures. As I said previously if it's really selling that fast before getting MH, Pokemon, animal crossing, DQ etc than that would mean the switch is basically the second coming of the DS. No way it happens.

I think Splatoon 2 could get it close to 200k considering the hype it seems to be getting in Japan. The bump for Mario Kart won't come close.

But yeah, 3M by October is not happening. December (and maybe November depending on when Mario Odyssey releases) should be huge though. A likely high demand Nintendo system during the holidays in Japan is guaranteed to do crazy numbers.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

That's being very generous with the bumps for MK8 and splatoon 2 as well. No way it reaches those sort of sales figures. As I said previously if it's really selling that fast before getting MH, Pokemon, animal crossing, DQ etc than that would mean the switch is basically the second coming of the DS. No way it happens.

It'll make DS look quaint by the end.

175 million units here we come!

 

[Boy Wander]

Question: Let's say this thing is a success, will battery and mobile technology advance such that a successor that is say 5x more powerful be feasible given a similar form factor?

 

[Dark Cloud]

Yea.. but it's nothing compared to the 50+ million Mario games sold in the prior gen, I mean people are comparing Switch to Wii, right?

I am living proof of a crossover, either that or you are blind to the demographic that buys good games wherever they are. I'm buying Destiny 2, RDR2 and Mario. Most likely the Switch will be THE second system of choice which already throws that no crossover shit out the window.

...what? I think you took something and went in a different direction. Usually someone who buys RDR2 isn't going to let SMO stop them. They'll buy both just like I've done in the past lol

 

[Future]

Get your damn eshop in order with some VC so those 2.5 million remain satisfied.

 

[frankie_baby]

Question: Let's say this thing is a success, will battery and mobile technology advance such that a successor that is say 5x more powerful be feasible given a similar form factor?

Battery tech nah, mobile technology dunno maybe when we down to 10nm

 

[Branduil]

You guys are overthinking the idea of a smaller, mainly portable Switch. The 3DS had identity issues early on, but by the time the 2DS came out they had sorted it out. The Switch already has a much stronger identity, so a smaller version in a couple years would be fine. There's a market for smaller, cheaper, kid-friendly handhelds that is currently being served by the 2DS and 3DS. Once those are gone, Nintendo will want a replacement. In a couple years, the Switch will be much cheaper, maybe $250 with a pack-in game. With a die-shrink, they could release a smaller, fanless handheld Switch with no joycons for much cheaper. It wouldn't do as much as the original Switch, but it would be far cheaper and much more kid-friendly. $150 to play every Nintendo game(and double as an extra controller if you already have a Switch) would make a tempting stocking-stuffer for a lot of parents. I'll be very surprised if this doesn't exist by Christmas 2019.

 

[Kouriozan]

Nah, 2m is definitely within reach by end of September, 3m is a pipe dream because it'd look like as follows:

600k at present, 24 Weeks until end of September
mk8 and Splatoon 2 weeks get 250k each (1.1m)
That leaves 22 non big game release weeks to sell 1.9m. very big, almost impossible ask.

December is a magic month for Nintendo there, I wouldn't underestimate it, even more if they make bundles.

 

[Seik]

Question: Let's say this thing is a success, will battery and mobile technology advance such that a successor that is say 5x more powerful be feasible given a similar form factor?

I wouldn't expect anything from batteries unless there's a new revolutionary technology that comes out.

We were stuck with the Lithium Ion technology years ago and we're most likely are going to be stuck with it for a while. It's exactly whay's holding the Switch's portable mode back, because if it was to run docked mode all the time, you'd see it rushing to 0% way faster than the 3 hours we get with Zelda today.

Mobile tech though still have place to progress. The more time goes by, the more powerful processors get, they also become more power efficient. So while you might not see progress with batteries, you will see more powerful products coming out that will consume as much energy as their predecessor for more power.

 

[Fat4all]

yeah, battery advancement is holding back a lot of tech industries right now

 

[phantasmic_glaive]

...what? I think you took something and went in a different direction. Usually someone who buys RDR2 isn't going to let SMO stop them. They'll buy both just like I've done in the past lol

Then I don't know what you mean by crossover. But anyway, thats what I meant (what you said).

 

[Hattori]

joycon-less Switch 3 years in is what I'm expecting as a stop gap until Switch 2 releases in year 4 (2021)

 

[jts]

I got too much free time this Saturday and made a mockup and a writeup about the joyconless Switch:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1360835

 

[ethomaz]

Superdata... let's see how many units Nintendo shipped in few weeks.

 

[jonno394]

December is a magic month for Nintendo there, I wouldn't underestimate it, even more if they make bundles.

Yeah December will see a truckload of these things shipped, so 3m+ by end of December i'd agree with, just not September!

 

[Council Pop]

joycon-less Switch 3 years in is what I'm expecting as a stop gap until Switch 2 releases in year 4 (2021)

I agree about the Switch Mini, but no way will the Switch only last four years. Wii U lasted four years! 3DS looks likely to break the seven year mark. I think it's unlikely we'll see a Switch 2 until at least two years after PS5 (seeing as Nintendo have to make every effort not to compete directly with Sony), and considering the success of PS4, I doubt we'll see PS5 until 2020.

So Switch 2 year 5 at absolute minimum, probably year 6 like the Wii to Wii U.

 

[Muzicfreq]

Somehow this double posted?

 

[LordKano]

7million I doubt unless they ramp up production and even then I wonder how many of them are actually being used considering people buying up Nintendo products just to resell for high prices lately

? According to recent reports, they're planning to produce 16 millions of them in its first year.

EDIT : why the fuck has this post moved above the one I was quoting.

 

[Muzicfreq]

? According to recent reports, they're planning to produce 16 millions of them in its first year.

EDIT : why the fuck has this post moved above the one I was quoting.

Hmmm 16mil by the end of the year and there's still no sign of them in my area since launch

 

[Zedark]

Hmmm 16mil by the end of the year and there's still no sign of them in my area since launch

Well, the production increasing will be felt throughout the year, not as much in the initial couple of weeks.

 

[Skittzo0413]

Hmmm 16mil by the end of the year and there's still no sign of them in my area since launch

Chalk that up to the demand. It's selling faster than the Wii after all. And the bulk of that 16m will likely come in Q3/Holiday '17.

 

[Muzicfreq]

Well, the production increasing will be felt throughout the year, not as much in the initial couple of weeks.

It's past first couple weeks.

 

[Hattori]

I agree about the Switch Mini, but no way will the Switch only last four years. Wii U lasted four years! 3DS looks likely to break the seven year mark. I think it's unlikely we'll see a Switch 2 until at least two years after PS5 (seeing as Nintendo have to make every effort not to compete directly with Sony), and considering the success of PS4, I doubt we'll see PS5 until 2020.

So Switch 2 year 5 at absolute minimum, probably year 6 like the Wii to Wii U.

those days are over, we live in a era where mid gen refreshes exists. Switch will get its refresh, whether it's significant like a 2 moniker or subtle like a Pro version is up to Nintendo but it will happen.