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[winjer]

Do we really know that? I don't think so.

Also, it's interesting to consider that a SoC using SEC 8nm will have more than double the die area. And TSMC has better yields too. These two make a huge difference in the economics in play.

The prices for Samsung's 8nm was almost half the price of an N7 TSMC wafer. Which cost 10k in 2020.
This is the reason went with Samsung, despite it's process node being a bit inferior to TSMC's N7.

Today, N5 costs around 17k per wafer. So even with the chip size reduction, the cost per chip will be lower on Samsung's 8nm.

 

[CS Lurker]

The prices for Samsung's 8nm was almost half the price of an N7 TSMC wafer. Which cost 10k in 2020.
This is the reason went with Samsung, despite it's process node being a bit inferior to TSMC's N7.

Today, N5 costs around 17k per wafer. So even with the chip size reduction, the cost per chip will be lower on Samsung's 8nm.

This SemiAnalysis article from September claimed that Nvidia pays 2.2x as much for a TSMC 4N wafer as they do for a Samsung 8nm wafer. However, Nvidia is achieving 2.7x higher transistor density on 4N, which means that a chip with the same transistor count would actually be cheaper if manufactured on 4N than 8nm (even more so when you factor yields into account).

 

[Fafalada]

I don't think they want the added dev complexity here

It's way too late to put that Genie back in the bottle - especially after they uncapped it themselves.

 

[winjer]

This SemiAnalysis article from September claimed that Nvidia pays 2.2x as much for a TSMC 4N wafer as they do for a Samsung 8nm wafer. However, Nvidia is achieving 2.7x higher transistor density on 4N, which means that a chip with the same transistor count would actually be cheaper if manufactured on 4N than 8nm (even more so when you factor yields into account).

Unless Samsung increases their price for 8nm by a big margin, TSMC N5 should cost 3 times more.
Another thing to consider is that transistor density does not correlate directly into area usage. If you have ever looked at a design tool, you will find there is a lot of wasted space between blocks.
Also, blocks for different functions have different transistor densities.
And we also have to consider that transistors are 3d structures, meaning that designing a block in deferent ways can change it' area on a wafer.
Finally, Samsung's 8nm is a much more mature process node, so it's bound to have better yields than TSMC N5.

Another thing to consider is that nvidia is currently making a killing selling professional grade chips for AI. All of them using TSMC's N4 and N5.
So nvidia will want to use all of it's allocated TSMC production for these very profitable chips.
Reports a few months ago talked about nvidia moving N5 production away from consumer GPUs, into professional AI chips. So I doubt they would use up N5 production for cheap console chips.
And this has paid off, as nvidia is selling many tons of these products.

Omdia Estimate of Nvidia's H100 Compute GPU Shipments in Q2 - Equivalent of 900 tons

In Q2 of fiscal year 2024, Nvidia disclosed datacenter hardware sales totaling $10.3 billion. Detailed analysis by market research firm Omdia reveals that during Q2 of 2023, Nvidia dispatched 900 tons of its H100 processors.

www.guru3d.com

 

[YOU PC BRO?!]

Bad news, if this is indeed the chip then it definitely won’t feature frame generation.

 

[BlackTron]

It's way too late to put that Genie back in the bottle - especially after they uncapped it themselves.

That's my point I don't think they "uncapped it". Uncapped implies "unlimited", for example uncapped framerate. I do think they want a limit, and it's probably below 3. Again, just my opinion

 

[Sleepwalker]

According to Activision internal emails, the console is close in performance to the PS4/XBO gen, so I would take all these crazy rumors with a grain of salt.

In an internal email chain, Chris Schnakenberg, head of Activision’s platform strategy and partner relations, prepared a summary of the “Switch NG” (Switch next-generation) inside a document labeled “NG Switch Draft.pdf.”

Given the closer alignment to Gen8 platforms in terms of performance and our previous offerings on PS4 / Xbox One, it is reasonable to assume we could make something compelling for the NG Switch as well. It would be helpful to secure early access to development hardware prototypes and prove that out nice and early.

The document is in relation to a briefing Activision had with Furukawa.

Activision was briefed on Nintendo’s Switch 2 last year

The Switch 2 could be similar in performance to the PS4.

www.theverge.com

 

[SolidQ]

so I would take all these crazy rumors with a grain of salt.

Who think 15W SoC can perform like PS5?

 

[Sleepwalker]

Who think 15W SoC can perform like PS5?

Many people apparently.

 

[CS Lurker]

Finally, Samsung's 8nm is a much more mature process node, so it's bound to have better yields than TSMC N5.

TSMC's 5nm isn't a new node. It's also a mature process.

And yields are inversely proportional to die size. With the T239 being something like ~219.mm² (8nm) and ~82.mm² (5nm), let's say samsung and tsmc were operating at a defect density of about 0.1 per cm². Because of the difference in die size, tsmc would have better yields. And even if samsung had it at 0.05 per cm², it would still have worse yields.

The only way I could see Nintendo using SEC 8nm is if they are ready to come with a "Switch Deck", both in size and power consumption. Maybe if samsung is eating the cost of defective die...

Well, we'll have our answer next year. So let's agree in disagree for now.

 

[tkscz]

According to Activision internal emails, the console is close in performance to the PS4/XBO gen, so I would take all these crazy rumors with a grain of salt.

In an internal email chain, Chris Schnakenberg, head of Activision’s platform strategy and partner relations, prepared a summary of the “Switch NG” (Switch next-generation) inside a document labeled “NG Switch Draft.pdf.”



The document is in relation to a briefing Activision had with Furukawa.

Activision was briefed on Nintendo’s Switch 2 last year

The Switch 2 could be similar in performance to the PS4.

www.theverge.com

I remember that, but things are subject to change between when that came around last year and now. Most devkits change constantly over time before the final kits are available. So even this should be taken with a grain of salt. Not saying it's wrong, this is most likely the most accurate thing we have, but it could be outdated.

TSMC's 5nm isn't a new node. It's also a mature process.

And yields are inversely proportional to die size. With the T239 being something like ~219.mm² (8nm) and ~82.mm² (5nm), let's say samsung and tsmc were operating at a defect density of about 0.1 per cm². Because of the difference in die size, tsmc would have better yields. And even if samsung had it at 0.05 per cm², it would still have worse yields.

The only way I could see Nintendo using SEC 8nm is if they are ready to come with a "Switch Deck", both in size and power consumption. Maybe if samsung is eating the cost of defective die...

Well, we'll have our answer next year. So let's agree in disagree for now.

Power consumption is why I believe Nintendo would choose 5nm over 8nm, they technically did this with the Switch. Remember, the first gen Switch used the 20nm process and then they went with the 16nm (which doubled the battery life). The 16nm process wasn't available when the original Switch got released (which is why some believed it was rushed), so they went with the 20nm until the 16 was available. In this case, the 5nm is already available so why wait.

 

[winjer]

TSMC's 5nm isn't a new node. It's also a mature process.

And yields are inversely proportional to die size. With the T239 being something like ~219.mm² (8nm) and ~82.mm² (5nm), let's say samsung and tsmc were operating at a defect density of about 0.1 per cm². Because of the difference in die size, tsmc would have better yields. And even if samsung had it at 0.05 per cm², it would still have worse yields.

The only way I could see Nintendo using SEC 8nm is if they are ready to come with a "Switch Deck", both in size and power consumption. Maybe if samsung is eating the cost of defective die...

Well, we'll have our answer next year. So let's agree in disagree for now.

You make good points.
But still, I don't see nvidia using it's N5 capacity to make consoles chips, when demand for AI is so high.
But maybe I'm wrong. We'll see when the console releases.

 

[zeldaring]

Activision was briefed on Nintendo’s Switch 2 last year

The Switch 2 could be similar in performance to the PS4.

www.theverge.com

Nintendo briefed Activision on the Switch 2 last year

That’s according to heavily redacted documents from the Microsoft vs. FTC case

www.polygon.com

I know this old news but it seems many websites are posting it as new new updates and saying they have more leaks on the documents, basically switch on par with last gen xbox one and ps4.

 

[TAS]

I think separating the home console and handheld will kill the brand, and it'll flop hard.

The whole idea is that it's a hybrid, it can't not be a hybrid for it to succeed. The concept is simple, and they HAVE to keep it simple.

The whole point of consolidation in Nintendo was for it to be able to support one console steadily, and as you can see, Microsoft is struggling with supporting two consoles.

No one could have predicted at the Switch launch that a handheld-only version would follow, but it did. I see Nintendo now adding a console version as a natural progression. Before Iwata's passing, he envisioned the future of Nintendo devices as 'brothers' in a family of systems--similar to Apple. The same software across multiple form factors. The Switch 'console' would be Nintendo's version of a Pro model.

 

[Astral Dog]

No one could have predicted at the Switch launch that a handheld-only version would follow, but it did. I see Nintendo now adding a console version as a natural progression. Before Iwata's passing, he envisioned the future of Nintendo devices as 'brothers' in a family of systems--similar to Apple. The same software across multiple form factors. The Switch 'console' would be Nintendo's version of a Pro model.

The issue would be that there was actual demand for a cheaper,smaller Switch Lite model, and even then it sold far less than the hybrid.

They could release a Nintendo brick ,but it would likely sell Wii U numbers and be a burden to manufacture

 

[Astral Dog]

Just cause switch was a huge hit doesn't mean switch 2 will be, also its gonna have the massive covid free money boost and it will probably be released when a rescission starts

Nobody knows what will be of the Switch 2, the economy is going to shit, politics and war are destabilizing the west. and Nintendo as always is a wild card,of course they are nervous

The good news is that unlike the Wii, the Switch brand appeals to hardcore gamers as much as casuals, so Nintendo is in a better position today than on Wii U/3DS the results could be completely different this time around launching a new console, plus they are adressing the problem that their brands are only limited to gaming with the Super Mario Movie


They are not gonna come up with a half assed new system at least

 

[zeldaring]

Nobody knows what will be of the Switch 2, the economy is going to shit, politics and war are destabilizing the west. and Nintendo as always is a wild card,of course they are nervous

The good news is that unlike the Wii, the Switch brand appeals to hardcore gamers as much as casuals, so Nintendo is in a better position today than on Wii U/3DS the results could be completely different this time around launching a new console, plus they are adressing the problem that their brands are only limited to gaming with the Super Mario Movie


They are not gonna come up with a half assed new system at least

switch 2 is gonna sell but i could see it doing 90 million to 105 million.

 

[Jinzo Prime]

After the Xbox leaks today, I don't care how weak the damn thing is, I'll buy whatever they put out as long as it keeps them out of Micrsoft's dirty hands!

 

[Marvel14]

No one could have predicted at the Switch launch that a handheld-only version would follow, but it did. I see Nintendo now adding a console version as a natural progression. Before Iwata's passing, he envisioned the future of Nintendo devices as 'brothers' in a family of systems--similar to Apple. The same software across multiple form factors. The Switch 'console' would be Nintendo's version of a Pro model.

A dock with performance enhancing innards confirmed! Imagine if Nintendo solved the console generations problem with a perpetually upgradeable dock so that you can keep your Super Switch for 10 years and just buy the latest dock SOC component to play the most demanding games that can't be played in handheld mode.

Refresh your dock once every 5-6 years and your handheld once every 10-12 years.

At least 3 years of most PS5/XSX games will be playable on it anyway...

Game changer...

 

[Kataploom]

Many people apparently.

I only see people claiming others believe, but no one saying they believe it themselves

 

[zeldaring]

I only see people claiming others believe, but no one saying they believe it themselves

Most believe it will exceed or match series s which isn't happening.

 

[Kataploom]

Most believe it will exceed or match series s which isn't happening.

We don't know yet, Switch is around 1/3 to 1/2.5 Xbox One in GPU raw power alone which released 4 years after that one and we have some other factors in play:

1. Nvidia being ahead of everyone else on mobile GPU
2. It releasing at least 4 years later
3. If it's gonna be 3-4 TF it's already around 1/3 to 1/2.5 times of PS5 GPU

Not saying it's definitely gonna happen but it's not crazy to think so imo. PS5 has the smallest GPU leap compared to past generation console, it's roughly 5.5 times the raw power of PS4 GPU (10TF vs 1.8TF), normally next gen tend to have from 8x to 10x the GPU raw power of their predecessors, that means that Switch 2 by mere logic must have at least 5x and at most 10x the GPU power of current Switch y docked mode, that is 2TF to 4TF in FP32 calculations.

Also, it's virtually impossible for Switch 2 to have a worse CPU than the one in PS4 and Xbox One, so at least that one is gonna be way closer to current gen consoles than to last gen consoles.

The only detail I could miss is the storage and RAM, it's gonna have at least 8 GB that's for sure, more than that IDK, but even if at lower bandwidth, it gonna have at least lower latency than current gen consoles (like 96ns for LPDDR6 vs 226ns of GDDR6, less is better). Regarding Storage, yeah, we're yet to see anything about it.

And that's without considering the Nvidia leak that may support this guess I'm throwing... But yeah, I'm not saying it's gonna be PS5 level of power, but XSS isn't even impossible.

 

[zeldaring]

We don't know yet, Switch is around 1/3 to 1/2.5 Xbox One in GPU raw power alone which released 4 years after that one and we have some other factors in play:

1. Nvidia being ahead of everyone else on mobile GPU
2. It releasing at least 4 years later
3. If it's gonna be 3-4 TF it's already around 1/3 to 1/2.5 times of PS5 GPU

Not saying it's definitely gonna happen but it's not crazy to think so imo. PS5 has the smallest GPU leap compared to past generation console, it's roughly 5.5 times the raw power of PS4 GPU (10TF vs 1.8TF), normally next gen tend to have from 8x to 10x the GPU raw power of their predecessors, that means that Switch 2 by mere logic must have at least 5x and at most 10x the GPU power of current Switch y docked mode, that is 2TF to 4TF in FP32 calculations.

Also, it's virtually impossible for Switch 2 to have a worse CPU than the one in PS4 and Xbox One, so at least that one is gonna be way closer to current gen consoles than to last gen consoles.

The only detail I could miss is the storage and RAM, it's gonna have at least 8 GB that's for sure, more than that IDK, but even if at lower bandwidth, it gonna have at least lower latency than current gen consoles (like 96ns for LPDDR6 vs 226ns of GDDR6, less is better). Regarding Storage, yeah, we're yet to see anything about it.

And that's without considering the Nvidia leak that may support this guess I'm throwing... But yeah, I'm not saying it's gonna be PS5 level of power, but XSS isn't even impossible.

How is nvda ahead everyone else in mobile GPU? I don't see any phones using NVDA chips. I think it's crazy to think that Nintendo will deliver the most powerful mobile device when released, when they haven't cared about power in 20 years.

 

[Kataploom]

How is nvda ahead everyone else in mobile GPU? I don't see any phones using NVDA chips. I think it's crazy to think that Nintendo will deliver the most powerful mobile device when released, when they haven't cared about power in 20 years.

When Switch came out, nobody was even close to Nvidia with mobile chips, the reason Tegra failed to penetrate the market was because it was quite ahead of its time and the price Nvidia asked for it reflected it too. They haven't stopped designing them and, actually, mobile chips advances has also sped up.

It's a myth that Switch was "old tech" when it came out, it's actually more advanced than PS4/Xbone, it's just less powerful.

 

[zeldaring]

When Switch came out, nobody was even close to Nvidia with mobile chips, the reason Tegra failed to penetrate the market was because it was quite ahead of its time and the price Nvidia asked for it reflected it too. They haven't stopped designing them and, actually, mobile chips advances has also sped up.

It's a myth that Switch was "old tech" when it came out, it's actually more advanced than PS4/Xbone, it's just less powerful.

I'm talking about right now. doesn't apple have the most powerful mobile gpu's?

Not really sure about that but from most leaks we heard. nintendo basically saved that ship as no one wanted it. they were also making profit from day one, so advanced can it really be? we'll see enough but u would bet big money its weaker then series s.

A developer wouldn't mention its close to last gen consoles if it actually matched series s because series s is a huge step up. then you have 2 reliable leakers saying 8nm and everything adds up.

 

[FireFly]

We don't know yet, Switch is around 1/3 to 1/2.5 Xbox One in GPU raw power alone which released 4 years after that one and we have some other factors in play:

1. Nvidia being ahead of everyone else on mobile GPU
2. It releasing at least 4 years later
3. If it's gonna be 3-4 TF it's already around 1/3 to 1/2.5 times of PS5 GPU

Nvidia is currently ahead on 5nm with Ada, but Ampere on 8nm wasn't ahead of AMD. So it does depend on the process/technology. And as far as the teraflop figure goes, you have to reduce it by ~30% to get effective performance vs RDNA 2. (3060 has 12.74 teraflops and is slower than a PS5 in rasterization).

 

[Kataploom]

Nvidia is currently ahead on 5nm with Ada, but Ampere on 8nm wasn't ahead of AMD. So it does depend on the process/technology. And as far as the teraflop figure goes, you have to reduce it by ~30% to get effective performance vs RDNA 2. (3060 has 12.74 teraflops and is slower than a PS5 in rasterization).

Doesn't change the rest of my personal analysis but yeah, that's a factor to consider. I won't go that deep because I don't know about those processes but I'm open to learn

 

[Kataploom]

I'm talking about right now. doesn't apple have the most powerful mobile gpu's?

Not really sure about that but from most leaks we heard. nintendo basically saved that ship as no one wanted it. they were also making profit from day one, so advanced can it really be? we'll see enough but u would bet big money its weaker then series s.

A developer wouldn't mention its close to last gen consoles if it actually matched series s because series s is a huge step up. then you have 2 reliable leakers saying 8nm and everything adds up.

A developer? Which one?

 

[zeldaring]

A developer? Which one?

Blizzard Activision. They had a briefing with Nintendo and said it would align with last gen consoles in power.

 

[FireFly]

Doesn't change the rest of my personal analysis but yeah, that's a factor to consider. I won't go that deep because I don't know about those processes but I'm open to learn

Baseline Series S performance is probably possible with a 40 series architecture and ~45W going to the APU. (You need 75% of a 35W 4060 8 TF laptop GPU + CPU) That would be like 80% more power efficient than the Series S. But the original Switch consumed only 11W of power when docked, so Nintendo would need to quadruple their energy consumption. Or have the GPU integrated into the dock.