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[Phantast2k]

Syria death toll: UN envoy estimates 400,000 killed - AJE News

The UN special envoy for Syria has estimated that 400,000 people have been killed throughout the last five years of civil war, urging major and regional powers to help salvage a crumbling ceasefire.

Explaining that the death toll was based on his own estimate, Staffan de Mistura said on Friday that it was not an official UN statistic.

"We had 250,000 as a figure two years ago," he said. "Well, two years ago was two years ago."

The UN no longer keeps track of the death toll due to the inaccessibility of many areas and the complications of navigating conflicting statistics put forward by the Syrian government and armed opposition groups.

...

The envoy said he planned to continue peace talks next week, despite the "worrisome trends on the ground", adding that he would seek clarity from government negotiators about their interpretation of political transition.

The government, which says the future of President Bashar al-Assad is not up for discussion in Geneva, says that political transition will come in the shape of a national unity government including current officials, opposition and independent figures.
"Is this going to be cosmetic, is this going to be real, and if it is real what does it mean for the opposition and so on?" he said.

Opposition negotiators have rejected any proposal which leaves Assad in power. They have also accused the government of violating a February "cessation of hostilities" agreement, pointing to air strikes on rebel-held areas which have killed dozens of people this week.

This weekend gives a great impression of how the vast majority of civilians died and continue to die in this war (spoiler: it ain't ISIS). And most of it is just from in and around Aleppo.

Warning: some videos are NSFW

April 22, 2016: Air strikes on Syria's Aleppo kill 25
Videos:
Alleppo suburb Andan
Aleppo

April 23, 2016: Truce in peril as Syria bombardments kill at least 30
Videos:
Aleppo: Double tap strikes - a reoccurring theme
Aleppo
Aleppo

April 24, 2016: At least 26 killed as fighting rages in Syria's Aleppo
Videos:
Aleppo
Aleppo
Since the Russian involvement cluster bombs are also a reoccurring theme
When you're out there on the front line while Assad or Russian air force hits your town

Videos are important because these threads usually end up being polluted by shitsposts about the Syrian Observatory For Human Rights which is often cited in articles on Syria.


Beyond ISIS, the questions are now:

- Will Russia / Assad hybrid forces storm Aleppo?

Judging by the above air strikes and by: Russian artillery deployed for Aleppo offensive as Syria talks falter | World news | The Guardian I'd say that it's pretty likely.
Oh, so btw.: Putin Orders ‘Main Part’ of Russian Army to Start Syria Pullout - NeoGAF was complete and utter bullshit, back and forth Putin tactics known from Ukraine.
For one, Weeks after ‘pullout’ from Syria, Russian military is as busy as ever - The Washington Post
Other than that: This is the advanced Russian helicopter that just crashed in Syria - The Washington Post
You can also just check these two "Bosporus watch" accounts which update a few times per week on Russian ships going South full and going north (back) empty: https://twitter.com/alperboler & https://twitter.com/YorukIsik
It's easy to recognize by comparing a ship's waterline.


- Will the U.S. start to deliver sophisticated MANPADs to the rebels?

U.S. Readies ‘Plan B’ to Arm Syria Rebels - WSJ

WASHINGTON—The Central Intelligence Agency and its regional partners have drawn up plans to supply more-powerful weapons to moderate rebels in Syria fighting the Russia-backed regime in the event the country’s six-week-old truce collapses, according to U.S. and other officials.

The U.S. Wants To Design Safer Anti-Aircraft Missiles for Syria’s Rebels | Foreign Policy

In recent days, U.S. officials have hinted that they may be willing to provide the weapons — known in military circles as MANPADS, short for “man-portable air defense system” — with one major caveat: They include technical controls that would limit where they can be used to ensure they don’t one day fall into terrorist hands.

But the design of such weapons controls remain highly elusive. U.S. engineers aren’t known to have sorted out how to build a GPS chip into the weapon that would ensure it could be fired only on the front lines of northwest Syria. They also haven’t sorted out a way of rendering the weapons inert after a certain amount of time so they don’t show up on distant battlefields way in the future. Weapons can be hacked, and arms control experts fear MANPADS supplied by the United States might end up with militants from groups like the Islamic State, reconfigured, and then used to shoot down a civilian airliner.

It’s possible that CIA engineers have secretly built and tested MANPADS and are waiting for the right moment to deploy them. If so, the agency has remained mum. The CIA declined to comment for this article. Raytheon, which makes the primary MANPADS in the American arsenal, the Stinger, declined to comment. The Pentagon referred comment to the State Department, which declined to comment on reports of MANPADS being delivered to Syria.

A bloody Syrian government strike on a market in the town of Maarat al-Noaman on Tuesday that killed dozens provided the latest illustration of why the rebels have been clamoring for the weapons so loudly. The provision of MANPADS would make it easier for rebels to shoot down the low-flying Syrian government planes and helicopters carrying out indiscriminate attacks with brutal weapons like barrel bombs. The missiles would also force Assad’s warplanes to fly at higher altitudes, making it harder for them to hit their targets.

...

- Will Turkey intervene in case of a full-on assault on Aleppo?

If it doesn't I'd say that up to a million refugees from Aleppo and its vicinity will come knocking at its borders.

 

[Deleted member 80556]

Thank you for the informative thread, Phantast.

What a shit show this has been, I feel like this is one of the occasions in which the international community stared this problematic like seeing a dish about to break in slow-motion and remain motionless.

Now hundreds of thousands have lost their lives, millions have lost their homes, and their families, while a good part of the international community seems to suffer bystander syndrome.

I hope the talks give a good result. I don't even want to imagine what would happen if it doesn't. Those articles you linked do not give a pretty picture.

 

[jaekeem]

I wish Obama had kept his red line promise.

 

[Deleted member 80556]

I wish Obama had kept his red line promise.

I can understand why he didn't though, wasn't one of his main worries the worsening of (the already tense) American-Russian relations?

 

[Frozenprince]

I wish Obama had kept his red line promise.

Unfortunately he couldn't risk poking the bear any more than he already had been (which is a lot) and congress was fractured and would never, ever back total war.

The conflict was fucked when the US didn't intervene in 2012 when Assad glassed most of his country.

 

[kittoo]

U.S. Readies ‘Plan B’ to Arm Syria Rebels - WSJ

WASHINGTON—The Central Intelligence Agency and its regional partners have drawn up plans to supply more-powerful weapons to moderate rebels in Syria fighting the Russia-backed regime in the event the country’s six-week-old truce collapses, according to U.S. and other officials.

Wait what? Why? US is still at it? How well did that work out the last time?
I thought by this time everyone had agreed that the 'moderate rebels' idea was fucked up.

 

[bonesmccoy]

I thought by this time everyone had agreed that the 'moderate rebels' idea was fucked up.

There are still holdouts. I'd guess it has a lot to do with the amount of $$$ being spent by groups who really, really, really want the Western public to buy into the idea of 'intervening' in Syria against the Assad regime. For example: One of the top Google results of 'Syria ceasefire rebel groups' is an anti-Assad Newsweek piece penned by a guy employed by a lobby group that lists Bahrain, the UAE and Bahaa Hariri amongst its top financial contributors.

 

[jetjevons]

Not wishing to restate the obvious but it's just a staggering and tragic loss of life.

 

[RangerX]

It looks like there is no end in sight either. A purely military solution isn't going to work, some serious diplomacy is needed. My heart goes out to the innocent people caught up in all of this.

 

[ant1532]

my god

 

[Air Zombie Meat]

Thats horrific. How much longer can this go on for?

 

[Slackbladder]

Can someone answer this question? If the West had not backed the rebels could it have ended by now? I only ask because if the West have effectively prolonged the war then the Governments of France, the UK etc are even more morally bankrupt for there response to the plight of Syrian refugees.

 

[Sayad]

U.S. Readies ‘Plan B’ to Arm Syria Rebels - WSJ

WASHINGTON—The Central Intelligence Agency and its regional partners have drawn up plans to supply more-powerful weapons to moderate rebels in Syria fighting the Russia-backed regime in the event the country’s six-week-old truce collapses, according to U.S. and other officials.

I can't see how this could possibly go wrong, nope, no way...

Can someone answer this question? If the West had not backed the rebels could it have ended by now? I only ask because if the West have effectively prolonged the war then the Governments of France, the UK etc are even more morally bankrupt for there response to the plight of Syrian refugees.

The balance might have been different, but outside humanitarian effort, most of the support the rebels got came from KSA, Qatar and Turkey.

 

[Suikoguy]

I can't see how this could possibly go wrong, nope, no way...

You could actually post the link to the article:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-readies-plan-b-to-arm-syria-rebels-1460509400

 

[Phantast2k]

Thank you for the informative thread, Phantast.

What a shit show this has been, I feel like this is one of the occasions in which the international community stared this problematic like seeing a dish about to break in slow-motion and remain motionless.

Now hundreds of thousands have lost their lives, millions have lost their homes, and their families, while a good part of the international community seems to suffer bystander syndrome.

I hope the talks give a good result. I don't even want to imagine what would happen if it doesn't. Those articles you linked do not give a pretty picture.

You're welcome. I feel like people are not paying nearly enough attention to this war even though it's pivotal for the world, not just for ME and Europe. Yeah, it doesn't look like there will be peace any time soon.

Unfortunately he couldn't risk poking the bear any more than he already had been (which is a lot) and congress was fractured and would never, ever back total war.

The conflict was fucked when the US didn't intervene in 2012 when Assad glassed most of his country.

I dislike that notion that Obama is poking the bear, this is basically a Russian narrative, but even if you subscribe to that idea (in regards to Ukraine), the East Ghouta chemical attack took place in 2013, Ukraine in 2014. It could very well be the other way round, Putin was emboldened by Obama's empty word / red lines drawn in the sand. But yes, I agree that the chance was missed in 2012 / 2013 when the barrel bombs began.

Wait what? Why? US is still at it? How well did that work out the last time?
I thought by this time everyone had agreed that the 'moderate rebels' idea was fucked up.

There are still plenty of moderate rebels in Syria. Since the U.S. started to do air raids in Syria, Al Nusra has been targeted quite a lot too. E.g.: U.S. strikes al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria for the second time in a week - The Washington Post
But yeah, there is a danger of U.S. supplied weapons to fall into the wrong hands.
If nothing happens, there will be thousands of people dying through 'moderate air raids' by a 'moderate dictator' and his 'moderate Russian friend'.

There are still holdouts. I'd guess it has a lot to do with the amount of $$$ being spent by groups who really, really, really want the Western public to buy into the idea of 'intervening' in Syria against the Assad regime. For example: One of the top Google results of 'Syria ceasefire rebel groups' is an anti-Assad Newsweek piece penned by a guy employed by a lobby group that lists Bahrain, the UAE and Bahaa Hariri amongst its top financial contributors.

Searching for these terms gives me a gazillion of articles other than by Newsweek on Assad's unwillingness to cooperate and ceasefire breaches.
The bombing runs continued despite any ceasefires and way outside of Nusra or ISIS territory.
Assad was never interested in a ceasefire and neither were the Russians. If Ukraine has taught us anything is how Russian ceasefires work: "You cease, we fire".

/

Can someone answer this question? If the West had not backed the rebels could it have ended by now? I only ask because if the West have effectively prolonged the war then the Governments of France, the UK etc are even more morally bankrupt for there response to the plight of Syrian refugees.

No, because very soon after the start of the war the void left by the West was filled by gulf states & Turkey. While Assad has always been propped by Iran & Russia.
The West is still barely helping the rebels. Relatively late into the war, the U.S. started to supply TOW missiles, but that's about it. Right now the Anti-ISIS fight has pretty much the West's full attention.

 

[Sayad]

You could actually post the link to the article:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-readies-plan-b-to-arm-syria-rebels-1460509400

I was quoting from the OP, which have the link!

 

[littleworm]

Man this whole thing is such a clusterfuck. I try and keep tabs on the conflict but there are so many factions in this conflict.

I mean you got Assad with
The SAA
NDF
and several militias

The Rebels
FSA
Al-Sham
ADF
among others

Al-Nusra which is aligned with Al-Qaeda

ISIS

and the SDF/Kurdish forces.

Then you have all the foreign powers

The Western Collation
The Gulf States
Russia and Iran


I couldn't even begin to tell who is fighting who anymore.

 

[Deserted Maniac Island]

The result of colonialism (Mapping the middle east), international politics, Sectarian conflict, state justified violence, and economic instability (Caused impart by climate change). Syria is one of many examples that should make us rethink how we handle the idea of the nationstate and global economics. The sad thing is, the people most affected by this are innocent people who have no power or influence. The solution isn't simply a secular democracy, because outlier countries will always have economic instability and huge inequality in a global capitalist economy, thus political instability (Because the state is responsible for planning the economy) leading to violence and hatred (The formation of fringe groups claiming to have alternative solutions).

It just really sad for people who really have nothing to do with how the situation unfolded in Syria...

 

[CHEEZMO™]

Worth noting also that that figure likely does not include the countless thousands of people who have disappeared into Assad's jails (and are now likely somewhere wrapped in plastic tarp in a 4 corpse deep trench)

https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/mde24/2579/2015/en/
https://www.amnesty.org.uk/press-re...usands-disappeared-people-cash-cow-new-report

The OHCHR put out a report recently that basically said that the Assad regime's conduct of detainees amounted to "extermination".

Since March 2011, a countrywide pattern emerged in which civilians, mainly males above the age of 15, were arbitrarily arrested and detained by the Syrian security and armed forces or by militia acting on behalf of the Government during mass arrests, house searches, at checkpoints and in hospitals.

Arrests targeted civilians perceived to be either supporting the opposition or
insufficiently loyal to the Government. Residents of opposition-controlled areas, relatives
of suspected members of armed groups, activists, defectors and military personnel
suspected of sympathising with the uprising, and those believed to be providing medical
care to the opposition were arrested with the purpose of obtaining information or as
punishment. Civilians suspected of taking active part in armed hostilities were also
detained. More recently, Government forces engaged in mass arrest campaigns in areas that they recaptured, as was observed following the truces in Assal Al-Ward (Rif Damascus) in April 2014 and the city of Homs in May 2014, and after the taking of Yabroud (Rif Damascus) in March 2014.

Former detainees detailed how cellmates were killed as they were beaten to death
during interrogations and in their cells, or died as a result of severe injuries sustained due to
torture or ill treatment.

[...]

While the overwhelming majority of the victims who perished while detained in
Government-controlled prison facilities were men, the commission has documented cases
of women and children as young as seven years old dying in the custody of State forces.
One of the earliest documented cases of death in detention is that of a 13-year-old boy,
arrested during a protest in Sayda (Dara’a) in late April 2011. His mutilated body was
returned to his family in May 2011.

[...]

Across detention facilities, interrogators or prison guards killed detainees,
sometimes in front of fellow prisoners. In early 2014, a detainee at Sednaya prison
(Damascus) was killed after guards entered the cell and subjected him to severe beating,
including kicking to the head and vital organs. Other prisoners present were ordered to face
the wall while the man was heard screaming.

[...]

Interrogators and guards employed gruesome methods of torture to kill detainees. In
2014, a detainee held in a centre under the control of the 4th Division of the Syrian army
had his genitals mutilated during torture. Bleeding severely and left without treatment, he
died three days later. A detainee of a Military Security branch in Homs witnessed an elderly
man being severely beaten, and then hung by his wrists from the ceiling. The guards burned
his eyes with a cigarette, and pierced his body with a heated, sharp metal object. After
hanging in the same position for three hours, the man died.

While largely denied due process rights and often uninformed of formal charges or
convictions, detainees were subjected to killings amounting to extrajudicial killings. In
Aleppo city, bodies started appearing in Queiq river in January 2013, reportedly after
having been dumped in the Government-controlled area of the city. Some of the victims
were confirmed to have been detained by State forces, including the Air Force Intelligence
Branch in Aleppo. Many of the more than 140 victims had their hands tied behind their
backs and appeared to have been executed by gunshot.

[note: here is a NSFW video of this particular incident https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pl0JkFEMbws]

Given the above, it is apparent that the Government authorities administering
prisons and detention centres were aware that deaths on a massive scale were occurring. The accumulated custodial deaths were brought about by inflicting life conditions in a calculated awareness that such conditions would cause mass deaths of detainees in the ordinary course of events, and occurred in the pursuance of a State policy to attack a civilian population. There are reasonable grounds to believe that the conduct described amounts to extermination as a crime against humanity.

There is also this long and harrowing read http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/04/18/bashar-al-assads-war-crimes-exposed

Even if the fighting stopped tomorrow, the true number of dead is likely tens of thousands higher than is thought.

 

[goomba]

Such a clusterfuck.

It's not a civil war, it's a proxy war resulting from foriegn parties attempting reigime change.

 

[SapientWolf]

Such a clusterfuck.

It's not a civil war, it's a proxy war resulting from foriegn parties attempting reigime change.

Not necessarily mutually exclusive.

I guess the open question is, what would happen if there was a power vacuum in Syria? What would it take to bring peace and stability in that region, if that's even a near term possibility? There are no good outcomes without a good plan for reconciliation and nation building.

 

[Kenshin001]

Assad should have held elections like Tunisia did. Unfortunately the people probably would vote in some crazy regressive Islamic party and the country would still be a mess. The less the West gets involved in this conflict the better.

 

[andythinkpad]

This is just start of the climate change catastrophe in this century. It will get worse in the tropical and middle east countries.

 

[CHEEZMO™]

Also worth noting that regarding non-radical armed groups; there's millions and millions of Syrians who aren't exactly chill with the whole Salafi jihad thing. A prime example is the city of Marat al-Numan in Idlib province (Jabhat al-Nusra's stomping ground) where the people turned out to protest against JN, and in favour of the FSA group Division 13.

Protesting every day for over a month. And then a few days ago jets struck the main market, killing over 40 men women and children.

 

[CHEEZMO™]

https://airwars.org/russian-civcas/

AirWars report on only the first 3 months of Russia's intervention to prop up Assad estimates between 1-1.5k civilians were killed in Russian airstrikes

Despite Russia’s claims, it is our provisional view at Airwars that to December 31st only, between 1,098 and 1,450 civilian non-combatants are likely to have been killed in 192 Syrian incidents where there is fair reporting publicly available of an event – and where Russian strikes appear to have taken place in the near vicinity on that date.

Indeed, more civilians appear to have been killed by Russia in the three months to December 31st than from all credibly-reported Coalition civilian fatality events since August 2014.

As well as inflicting excessive civilian casualties, Russia is credibly reported to have extensively targeted civilian infrastructure in Syria – with water treatment plants, bakeries, food distribution depots and aid convoys all struck.

Civilian neighbourhoods were also systematically targeted across rebel areas, often on consecutive days. More than 1,700 civilians are also credibly reported injured in the 192 lethal events we assess as likely having involved Russian aircraft – a reasonable indicator of the low-precision munitions presently favoured by Moscow.

And between 600-830 in strikes where it was unclear if Russia or Assad was the perpetrator

A significant proportion (31%) of the 330 alleged incidents involving Russia are contested – where it remains unclear whether Russia or other parties were responsible. Between 589 and 831 civilians died in these 104 contested events. The question here is not whether civilians died – the public record almost always shows that they did – but only whether Russia or the Assad regime was responsible.

Within this Contested category, eleven claimed incidents may have involved Coalition rather than Russian aircraft according to reports – an indicator sign of the chaotic situation in Syria today. Between 52 and 65 civilians died in these alleged events. While some do appear to have been the work of the Coalition, other claims suggest propaganda efforts by the Syrian regime or by Russia to instead implicate the US-led alliance.

A further 49 likely civilian deaths are attributed to 26 alleged Russian airstrikes which are presently weakly reported or single-sourced. Finally, a small number of alleged events (eight, or 2.4%) have in our view been disproven, ie are highly unlikely to have involved Russian aircraft.

Again, this is just the first three months until the end of December, and only covers strikes that were (or possibly were) carried out by the RuAF.

 

[Kathian]

Wait what? Why? US is still at it? How well did that work out the last time?
I thought by this time everyone had agreed that the 'moderate rebels' idea was fucked up.

It is. Its pressure to maintain the ceasefire.

 

[FreedomFighter]

It should be noted that Al Nusra is TOTALLY in control of Aleppo.

I can understand why he didn't though, wasn't one of his main worries the worsening of (the already tense) American-Russian relations?

This world police schtick is pretty tired.

Wait what? Why? US is still at it? How well did that work out the last time?
I thought by this time everyone had agreed that the 'moderate rebels' idea was fucked up.

Will be a miserable failure. I don't think any amount of MANPADS are gonna save them. Just need to move on to the acceptance stage. The only way this carnage can even begin to end is to come to terms with Assad being in power.

Assad should have held elections like Tunisia did. Unfortunately the people probably would vote in some crazy regressive Islamic party and the country would still be a mess. The less the West gets involved in this conflict the better.

I think there should be elections, and there probably will. The problem is Assad would win. Thus, Plan B commence.

 

[CHEEZMO™]

Al Quds hospital - one of the few remaining medical centres in Opposition-held Aleppo - was hit by a strike tonight, killing over a dozen people including reportedly one of Aleppo's last paediatricians. The hospital was quite well known, and has been struck twice in the past.

https://youtu.be/STvmGbJgMBc

Happens amidst an increase in attacks (including against aid facilities) in the last few days as things deteriorate.

 

[Phantast2k]

Happens amidst an increase in attacks (including against aid facilities) in the last few days as things deteriorate.

Indeed, among other civilians, a White Helmet HQ was struck by a tactical ballistic missile, apparently a OTR-21 Tochka:

April 26, 2016: 5 Rescue Workers Are Killed in Northern Syria - The New York Times

Five rescue workers with a civil defense group were killed in aerial attacks on their headquarters in northern Syria on Tuesday as violence escalated in the critical battlegrounds of Aleppo Province, where government and insurgent attacks have killed dozens in recent days.

The rescuers died after four airstrikes and a surface-to-surface missile hit the headquarters in quick succession in Atareb, in western Aleppo Province, according to the group, the White Helmets, a civilian organization that responds to attacks in insurgent-held territory and says it has helped save as many as 50,000 people. Airstrikes in the area are being carried out by the government and its Russian allies.

A day earlier, 19 civilians, including several children, were killed by insurgent shelling in the government-held section of the divided city of Aleppo, according to the state-run news media. Opposition groups and news outlets put the death toll from government airstrikes and shelling over the past week at well over 100.

...

Aftermath

Remains of the missile.

Then on the night between 27th and 28th the strike on the hospital:

Syria conflict: Aleppo in 'catastrophic' state says UN - BBC News

Air strikes on and around the Medecins sans Frontieres-backed al-Quds hospital killed at least 27 people, while more than 30 died in other attacks.
UN envoy Jan Egeland said the next days would be vital for the humanitarian aid lifeline for much of Syria.
The violence has left a partial truce hanging by a thread.
UN envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura warned the cessation of hostilities agreed between non-jihadist rebels and government forces on 27 February was now "barely alive"

...

Aftermath (NSFW)

In this strike: Last paediatrician in rebel-held Aleppo killed in Syrian regime airstrike on hospital

Clearly this is deliberate destruction of civilian infrastructure and preparations for an assault on the city. This appears to be a strategy rather than Assad's usual meat grinder.

Another outcome of these attacks:

MSF stops sharing Syria hospital locations after 'deliberate' attacks | The Guardian

Hospitals in opposition-held parts of Syria are refusing to share GPS coordinates with Russian and Syrian authorities because of repeated attacks on medical facilities and workers, Médecins Sans Frontières and humanitarian workers on the ground have said.

International charity MSF said it took the decision not to formally inform Syria’s government or its Russian allies about the location of some medical facilities, such as the one hit by a deadly airstrike this week, amid concerns that doing so could make them targets.

Joanne Liu, MSF International president, told reporters in Geneva that deliberate attacks on civilian infrastructures were routine. “Healthcare in Syria is in the crosshair of bombs and missiles. It has collapsed,” Liu said. “Let me be clear: attacks on civilians and hospitals must stop. The normalisation of such attacks is intolerable.”

...

This will play out like the Battle of Grozny (1999–2000) - Wikipedia if the world continues to look away.