• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
  • The Politics forum has been nuked. Please do not bring political discussion to the rest of the site, or you will be removed. Thanks.

The state of the next-gen video game console (warning: cnet butthurt blog)

Exempted

Banned
May 16, 2008
569
0
0
"And once Kojima joins Nintendo in 2005, that'll be the finishing blow to the PS2."

The year was 2003, and Danny's post to the IGN GameCube boards was complete. With the help of several graphs, he had carefully outlined the way Nintendo's purple lunchbox would stage an incredible comeback victory over the PS2. The Xbox was nearly dead; it was a non-factor.

He went to click the "Post Thread" button. The world needed to know that Capcom and Sega were going to be second parties in a year, and that Square was "at least 80% likely" to go GC-exclusive soon. Just for dramatic flair, Danny included a picture of Samus beating up Master Chief to illustrate his prediction that Metroid Prime 2 (with NintendOnline capability) would be the #1 blockbuster of the generation.

But then disaster struck. The wood in his parents' attic was rotten, and they had been struck a mortal blow by the nails which held up Danny's precious Wind Waker wallscroll. The ceiling collapsed, and all went dark for the young man.



After four years in a coma, Danny woke up with mild memory loss. Unable to remember much besides his name, family, general background, acquaintances, etc., Danny was lost. He had no favorite movies, no favorite games, no old hobbies. But something still beat deep within Danny's heart. He took up technology-related writing.

The next year, Danny got a job at cnet.com. An article came up for him about the console sales. He began looking at each console's facts. When Danny reached the PS3, something strange was triggered. There was a flash of purple in his head.

He began to create a chart.
 

Fusebox

Banned
Jun 9, 2004
26,942
2
0
Sydney
I can't believe Wii Fits success, where were all these people when Yourself! Fitness came out for Xbox, superior graphics no substitute for novelty controller?

 
Dec 27, 2007
3,344
0
0
40
Akron, OH
duk said:
I'd like to the a PSP and DS Lite chart. :lol
I didn't shell out the $4,500 to read their report, but I'm guessing their DS vs PSP chart looks something like this:

This "analyst" stuff is really quite easy I must say.

Oh and no, I don't in any way think that is what will happen.
 

Gaborn

Member
Apr 6, 2007
27,776
0
0
The Faceless Master said:


love that chart

Sooo... wait. Is the 2008 number even POSSIBLE for PS3? Isn't... that (even though it's an LTD number if you subtract estimated WW sales by December 31 07) higher than the number of consoles Sony plans on selling to retailers by the end of the FISCAL YEAR? I mean, just... logically, but there aren't like 2-3 million PS3 sitting around collecting dust in stores (it's probably 1 million or so at the high end), so assuming for a second these numbers can somehow be obtained just for the first year we'd have to assume Sony would at some point be selling out of every last PS3 around the world to even come CLOSE to meeting this. Talk about the absolute best case scenario for Sony.
 
Dec 30, 2006
48,500
2
0
Fusebox said:
I can't believe Wii Fits success, where were all these people when Yourself! Fitness came out for Xbox, superior graphics no substitute for novelty controller?


I have it for PC. It is a good product. Some elements are better than Wii Fit (Maya's performance questions, timed workouts, different workout environments, ability to use extra gym equipment).

However, Wii Fit has advantages too (Board, remote use, Mii integration, balance games, scales).

Neither product is the end all and be all of electronic fitness coaching, but both are good supplements to a healthy lifestyle. I would like to see more competition in the field, so EA's recent announcement is good news.

I imagine products for different segements of fitness enthusiasts. I would like to see fitness combined with action, comedy and puzzles.

Luckily the Wii is on track to potentially be the biggest gaming system of all time, so that increases the odds of a diverse and competitive market for innovations in fitness software.

Ultimately, that is the major advantage that Wii Fit has over Yourself! Fitness.
 

Wolves Evolve

Member
Sep 11, 2006
3,655
0
0
My Predictions:
--------------------


Available Colours for Consoles in 2009:

PS3: Black, Silver, White (Black only in Europe)
360: Black, White, Grey and Green combination
Wii: White, Cerulean Blue, Hot Pink

Funniest Advertising Campaigns:

1. Wii
2. PS3
3. 360

Dumbest Peripheral Add-ons

1. 360/Wii Tie
2. Ps3
3. PSP
4. DS

Fattest, loneliest, Firefly-Lovingest Fans

1. Wii/360/PS3 Tie
 

Gaborn

Member
Apr 6, 2007
27,776
0
0
Wolves Evolve said:
My Predictions:
--------------------


Available Colours for Consoles in 2009:

PS3: Black, Silver, White (Black only in Europe)
360: Black, White, Grey and Green combination
Wii: White, Cerulean Blue, Hot Pink

Funniest Advertising Campaigns:

1. Wii
2. PS3
3. 360

Dumbest Peripheral Add-ons

1. 360/Wii Tie
2. Ps3
3. PSP
4. DS

Fattest, loneliest, Firefly-Lovingest Fans

1. Wii/360/PS3 Tie

But... but... I want my black Wii :(
 
Jun 6, 2004
68,810
0
1,570
Haunted One said:
According to this graph, the PS3 will sell over a million units during every month of every year.



Never more apt. :lol
if they sell 3 million in december, 2 million in november and 1 million in october, that leaves them 9 months to sell 6 million...
 

FightyF

Banned
Jun 7, 2004
16,250
0
0
www.myspace.com
Count Dookkake said:
Ultimately, that is the major advantage that Wii Fit has over Yourself! Fitness.

The fact that it will sell more makes it a better product?

:lol

The giggles from the chart wore off and then BAM I read this.
 

Gaborn

Member
Apr 6, 2007
27,776
0
0
FightyF said:
The fact that it will sell more makes it a better product?

:lol

The giggles from the chart wore off and then BAM I read this.

Reaching a larger userbase makes it increasingly likely that Nintendo will revisit a successful game with a sequel. the same can't necessarily be said for Yourself! Fitness. In other words, Nintendo is potentially more likely to correct mistakes and perceived flaws with Wii Fit in a sequel than are the makers of Yourself! Fitness.
 
Dec 30, 2006
48,500
2
0
FightyF said:
The fact that it will sell more makes it a better product?

:lol

The giggles from the chart wore off and then BAM I read this.

You are not very adept at reading.

Count Dookkake said:
Luckily the Wii is on track to potentially be the biggest gaming system of all time, so that increases the odds of a diverse and competitive market for innovations in fitness software.

Ultimately, that is the major advantage that Wii Fit has over Yourself! Fitness.

Bolded for the reading impaired.

Esteemed poster Gaborn furthers the explanation, but limits it to Nintnendo revisions only. I believe the success of the Board (and of the Wii in general) will cause more competition to take advantage of the board.
 
Jun 6, 2004
68,810
0
1,570
Gaborn said:
Reaching a larger userbase makes it increasingly likely that Nintendo will revisit a successful game with a sequel. the same can't necessarily be said for Yourself! Fitness. In other words, Nintendo is potentially more likely to correct mistakes and perceived flaws with Wii Fit in a sequel than are the makers of Yourself! Fitness.
they'd have to do a lot more than correct mistakes to match yourself! fitness as a fitness game.
 

Gaborn

Member
Apr 6, 2007
27,776
0
0
Count Dookkake said:
You are not very adept at reading.



Bolded for the reading impaired.

Esteemed poster Gaborn furthers the explanation, but limits it to Nintnendo revisions only. I believe the success of the Board (and of the Wii in general) will cause more competition to take advantage of the board.

Really? I'm pretty sure that's the first time I've been referred to that way, thanks.

As to your point, sure, I definitely agree that it's going to lead to a broad array of titles, from various publishers, but I think it's also likely and important for "brand name" purposes, or stability if you will with the name to lend itself to a sequel. I mean, sure, you occasionally see a stand alone game that is important and singular without needing a sequel or being one itself, but it's probably far more typical for a major game release to be part of a broader series (which, arguably the Wii line of games are even if they're each somewhat different).

I think in the area of fitness especially branding is important, some people will buy every specific exercise equipment a company makes. Others will only buy videos featuring a particular personality. I see Wii Fit being a potential brand name leading to an array of titles, perhaps Wii Aerobics, or Wii Yoga (I know, I know, there are some yoga mini games, imagine a totally yoga centric game) or Wii Flex or.... well, we'll see. So I don't disagree with you that it has broad implications for a variety of companies, but I don't think you can disregard the brand either.
 

Kuramu

Member
Jun 7, 2004
2,492
56
1,515
NJ
www.paulkramm.com
oh wow, this is priceless.

Glad to see my chart comic made it in in my absence.
COuld someone post the graph where Wii LTD actually have negative sales in order for PS3 to catch up.
 

Haunted

Member
Nov 16, 2006
78,220
18
965
The Faceless Master said:
if they sell 3 million in december, 2 million in november and 1 million in october, that leaves them 9 months to sell 6 million...
Fucking impossible.

Not mathematically (although - as others have pointed out - Sony isn't even planning to ship that many consoles this and next year), but the chance of this happening is so astronomically small.... it could just as well be called impossible.
 
Jun 6, 2004
68,810
0
1,570
Haunted One said:
Fucking impossible.

Not mathematically (although - as others have pointed out - Sony isn't even planning to ship that many consoles this and next year), but the chance of this happening is so astronomically small.... it could just as well be called impossible.
of course it's impossible, i'm just saying... IF I DID IT, that's how it would happen!
 

Vaxadrin

Banned
Nov 14, 2007
2,101
0
0
Haunted One said:
do share.

:p

I said "How much do you think a Cnet "statistical analysis" costs compared to the cost of a Gamespot review?", but thought it seemed hypocritical juxtaposed with my scoffing at the idea of a review score conspiracy in the Haze thread, so I deleted it.
 

sajj316

Member
Dec 18, 2007
7,847
0
0
Stop It said:
Holy sweet mother of Jesus you did not just say that, this combined with your utterly wrong assertion that Wii will be irrelevant by 2009 (Hint, the mass market doesn't care for tech wars) just shows how markedly insane you are, or just delusional, or a SCE worker.

1: Price didn't save the Gamecube, it isn't a factor in the UK (360 is cheaper than Wii, that hasn't stopped Wii from trampling 360 week after week), and PS3 still hasn't a huge margin to play with yet, SCE can't really afford to price cut for a while yet, not in the US anyway.
2:the transition from DVD to BR will not be like that of VHS to DVD, it will be more gradual, and by the time BR becomes as mainstream as DVD became thanks in part to PS2, standalone players will be far cheaper than PS3, destroying any advantage BR gives the console sales wise.

:lol: No, but if it isn't its known as a GUESS, predictions are generally based off research and yes, actual facts.

You are right then ... I stand corrected on the definition of PREDICTION versus GUESS
 

Safe Bet

Banned
Sep 5, 2006
6,824
0
0
Fusebox said:
I can't believe Wii Fits success, where were all these people when Yourself! Fitness came out for Xbox, superior graphics no substitute for novelty controller?

WiiFit does something Yourself Fitness did not and could not, monitoring exercise and giving appropriate feedback.

Yourself Fitness really isn't much more interactive than an exercise video.
 
Jun 6, 2004
68,810
0
1,570
Safe Bet said:
WiiFit does something Yourself Fitness did not and could not, monitoring exercise and giving appropriate feedback.

Yourself Fitness really isn't much more interactive than an exercise video.
wii fit's system can be gamed just like yourself! fitness
 

Vinci

Danish
Oct 12, 2007
22,075
0
0
United States
Isn't the biggest difference that one has Wii in the title and the other has Yourself? Arguing about the technical or other differences seems unnecessary.
 

[Nintex]

Member
Jun 21, 2005
18,889
5
1,560
32
The Netherlands
www.n1ntendo.nl
Vinci said:
Isn't the biggest difference that one has Wii in the title and the other has Yourself? Arguing about the technical or other differences seems unnecessary.
No, the biggest difference is the fact that Nintendo puts as much marketing and development behind Wii Sports as they do with the Mario games perhaps even more. Microsoft didn't even give PGR4 a proper marketing campaign and they left RARE in the cold with Viva Pinata.
 

Vinci

Danish
Oct 12, 2007
22,075
0
0
United States
[Nintex] said:
No, the biggest difference is the fact that Nintendo puts as much marketing and development behind Wii Sports as they do with the Mario games perhaps even more. Microsoft didn't even give PGR4 a proper marketing campaign and they left RARE in the cold with Viva Pinata.

I'm not disagreeing. All I'm commenting on is that Wii Fit would've outsold Yourself Fitness without Nintendo even taking such a strong marketing approach to it, IMO. It has Wii in the title, which will automatically get people to at least look at it, particularly those that have been brought into the Wii with Wii Sports. I'm not saying it would sell as well as it is with the marketing, just that having Wii in the title is a pretty strong lure in and of itself. The brand has reached a level of complete mainstream hegemony, at least when it comes to video games.
 

[Nintex]

Member
Jun 21, 2005
18,889
5
1,560
32
The Netherlands
www.n1ntendo.nl
Vinci said:
I'm not disagreeing. All I'm commenting on is that Wii Fit would've outsold Yourself Fitness without Nintendo even taking such a strong marketing approach to it, IMO. It has Wii in the title, which will automatically get people to at least look at it, particularly those that have been brought into the Wii with Wii Sports. I'm not saying it would sell as well as it is with the marketing, just that having Wii in the title is a pretty strong lure in and of itself. The brand has reached a level of complete mainstream hegemony, at least when it comes to video games.
I thought about this too, but Wii Chess for example bombed in Wii crazy Europe land so there's more to it than that. It really comes down to their marketing approach, they have titles for each audience. With Viva Pinata Microsoft and RARE tried to create some kind of hybrid for both the casual and hardcore players and it didn't work out. Nintendo has a seperate line-up of touch-generations(Wii Sports, Wii Play, Endless Ocean, Wii Fit, Brain Training) that people will enjoy and a "gamers" line-up of Super Mario Galaxy, Mario Kart Wii, Metroid Prime 3 and others.

Their strategy works because it's consistent, people know what to expect. Even though you're not following games 24/7 you know there's a decent chance that Wii Flying or Wii Music or Wii Cooking might come out in the future next to a new Zelda game. The only thing you know about Microsoft is that they're releasing the Halo's and Gears games, the other part of their line-up is a mixed bag of RPG's, Adventure games and 'family' titles. Nintendo is more or less using the PS2 strategy on a smaller scale, while Nintendo marketed their Nintendo games and Microsoft ran with whatever they got their hands on next to Halo. Sony had the "We have everything they have and more!" message and it worked. If a new game was announced, Soul Calibur II, GTA, Madden or anything you knew it would be released on PS2. Nintendo hasn't managed to get the new GTA or Soul Calibur yet, but they did manage to get Guitar Hero, Rock Band(although later) and other titles which GameCube gamers would've missed out if they were released back then.

The strategy works on two sides, on one side Nintendo's line-up is more stellar than ever on the other side Capcom and SEGA can use Nintendo's course to sell their own products. The Wii Zapper for Ghost Squad, Medal of Honor and Resident Evil:UC for example. Great planning on their part and Activision obviously missed the boat with some kind of COD spin-off.
 

kame-sennin

Member
Jun 11, 2007
7,617
0
935
www.bluepeppercomics.com
Deku said:
You know what's so great about these is that the authors are almost always never called to account.

Here's a projection for NA market share released in January 2007. Post PS3/Wii launch but apparently, SFG didn't have the proper market intelligence so they just fell inline with the fanboy consesus of the day. Might as well have blind monkeys do projections for us instead of paying a pretty penny for these studies.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4498&Itemid=2

Someone should take some of the most famous predictions (like this one and the one from screendigest) and make a deviation graph every year. That way we'll have a visual representation of how horrible these predictions are.
 

Kuramu

Member
Jun 7, 2004
2,492
56
1,515
NJ
www.paulkramm.com
kame-sennin said:
Someone should take some of the most famous predictions (like this one and the one from screendigest) and make a deviation graph every year. That way we'll have a visual representation of how horrible these predictions are.

Then we can have a yearly thread where we discuss those deviation graphs. Gaffers can make their own predictions as to future trends in analyst prediction deviation. We can average Gaf predictions together and make graphs predicting future deviations in analyst predictions. If we do it just right, the universe will fall in on itself.
 

Opiate

Member
Dec 4, 2007
22,801
0
0
Saint Louis / New York City
kame-sennin said:
Someone should take some of the most famous predictions (like this one and the one from screendigest) and make a deviation graph every year. That way we'll have a visual representation of how horrible these predictions are.

In all seriousness, I actually believe Pachter harnesses the phenomenon we're discussing to his advantage. I think he makes some outlandish claims, and I think he knows these claims are outlandish when he makes them. Because they are outlandish, people talk about them.

If he's wrong, no one remembers. If he's right, then he's the guy who predicted the truth, even though it seemed so crazy, so unlikely, at the time he proclaimed it. When you make a crazy prediction and end up being right, people are much more likely to remember.

And regardless of the outcome, he gets more press -- as does Wedbush Morgan, a company I knew almost nothing about until I read the umpteenth article about "Michael Pachter from Wedbush Morgan."
 

kame-sennin

Member
Jun 11, 2007
7,617
0
935
www.bluepeppercomics.com
Kuramu said:
Then we can have a yearly thread where we discuss those deviation graphs. Gaffers can make their own predictions as to future trends in analyst prediction deviation. We can average Gaf predictions together and make graphs predicting future deviations in analyst predictions. If we do it just right, the universe will fall in on itself.

:lol

Opiate said:
In all seriousness, I actually believe Pachter harnesses the phenomenon we're discussing to his advantage. I think he makes some outlandish claims, and I think he knows these claims are outlandish when he makes them. Because they are outlandish, people talk about them.

If he's wrong, no one remembers. If he's right, then he's the guy who predicted the truth, even though it seemed so crazy, so unlikely, at the time he proclaimed it. When you make a crazy prediction and end up being right, people are much more likely to remember.

And regardless of the outcome, he gets more press -- as does Wedbush Morgan, a company I knew almost nothing about until I read the umpteenth article about "Michael Pachter from Wedbush Morgan."

He's brilliant. But I'm not joking. I want to see someone do this. I'd do it myself, but I fail at excel.