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"There are warning signs": Biden's support among Hispanic voters dips below Hillary Clinton's

JORMBO

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President Trump's standing with Hispanic voters is stronger now than four years ago, while Joe Biden's support is softer than Hillary Clinton's, polls show — trends that worry some longtime Biden supporters in the Hispanic community.
Why it matters: Hispanic voters make up more than 20 percent of the electorate in Florida and Arizona — two swing states that Trump won in 2016 but could deliver Biden the White House.
  • National polling still shows Biden leading Trump with Hispanics by around 20 percentage points, but in some key states that lead evaporates.
  • Biden's challenge may be the clearest in Florida, where exit polling gave Clinton two-thirds of the Hispanic vote in 2016 but where three recent surveys show Trump holding a small lead over Biden with Hispanics.
  • A Marist/NBC poll has Trump up 50%-46%. A Quinnipiac survey last week gave Trump a 45%-43% advantage.
  • And in heavily Democratic Miami-Dade County, Trump leads Biden 47-46% among Hispanics, per a new survey from Bendixen & Amandi. That's in a county that's almost 70% Hispanic and that Trump lost by 30 percentage points four years ago.
Between the lines: Biden focused his running-mate search and convention programming far more around Black voters amid protests against systemic racism and police killings. But Hispanics are a bigger and faster growing voting group.
  • There are more than 3.1 million eligible Hispanic voters in Florida and 1.3 million in Arizona.
  • Pennsylvania has 520,000 eligible Hispanic voters; North Carolina, 338,000; Michigan, 221,000; and Wisconsin, 183,000, according to the Pew Research Center.
By the numbers: Biden led Trump 56%-36% with Hispanics in a national Quinnipiac survey taken after both parties' August nominating conventions — a 20-point spread that's significantly narrower than the 38-point lead Clinton had in an average of pre-election polls in 2016.

  • An Emerson College post-convention national survey put Trump’s Hispanic support at 37% — almost 10 points higher than the 28% exit polls show he captured in 2016.
  • Biden was up 10 points over Trump among registered Hispanic voters in a Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation August survey, significantly less than Clinton’s 27-point Hispanic win in Texas.
What they're saying: “For the campaign to win, I expect them to do more,” said Rep. Tony Cardenas (D-Texas), who ran the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’s PAC. “If we take any particular community for granted, we could make this race too close, much closer than it needs to be."

  • “It’s undeniable that there appears to be a lukewarm level of support,” said Moe Vela, a Hispanic lawyer and political adviser who worked for Biden in the Obama administration. “I love Joe and and Jill Biden, but they deserve to have a better team.”
 

HoodWinked

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Jun 30, 2010
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i wonder if the Goya thing had anything to do with it.

people on the left suddenly bashing Goya and from their point of view just seems like liberals trashing one of the recognizable Hispanic brands and feeling attacked.
 
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IDKFA

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Jan 15, 2017
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I don't have a horse in this race as I'm a Brit, but I do think Biden will win. Just a gut feeling.

I don't listen to polls as they were wrong in the 2016 US vote and wrong for the Brexit vote, but just something about this year makes me think Biden will win with a small majority.

Also, slightly off topic, but I've always thought Biden looks like somebody but could never put my finger on it. For some reason last night I finally knew who he reminded me of.




Looks like Biden didn't chose wisely.
 
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HeresJohnny

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Cubans are the exception, compadre.
Latinos are also predominantly Roman Catholic (as Joe Biden claims to be), yet they may take issue with a president whose church denies him communion (the literal body of Christ) because his political views are divergent from one of the core beliefs of the church.
 
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manfestival

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i wonder if the Goya thing had anything to do with it.

people on the left suddenly bashing Goya and from their point of view just seems like liberals trashing one of the recognizable Hispanic brands and feeling attacked.
I don't think Goya had much of an impact of anything honestly. If you a real then you make your own sofrito, otherwise you can do the goya way out I suppose. Their sazon is alright.

I will say that in an anecdotal sense it seems many of my fellow hispanics are much more quiet this time around. Now this isn't their concession to voting for Trump but many of those seemed opposed to Trump in 2016 and have grown quiet since then. Though it strangely depends on the community. Funny enough, I do Uber when I am bored and there seems to be a general sentiment from those I have driven that Trump isn't bad and there is a general disbelief of the MSM.
 

Dirk Benedict

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May 31, 2013
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Well, calling Castro a fine guy doesn't help. Trying to cancel Goya doesn't help. All these white women trying to reclassify Latino(a)s as Latinx doesn't help.

I speak for most when I say we hate the fucking label "latinx" Like these imbeciles are just going to erase our culture because they have a revisionists way of looking at it.
The dumb-dumbs have already admitted that the LatinO community doesn't give a double helix of a shit about that moronic "word"
 
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Woo-Fu

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It doesn't seem like it should be possible for Biden to poll worse than Hillary with this demographic. That has to be taken as Trump having gained a lot of support. Rightfully so if you look at what the two have done with their time in Washington.
 
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Sign

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It doesn't seem like it should be possible for Biden to poll worse than Hillary with this demographic. That has to be taken as Trump having gained a lot of support. Rightfully so if you look at what the two have done with their time in Washington.

Trump is running on a working class message which will resonate with anyone that is working class. Biden has been trying to plagiarize this approach, but his ~50 years in Washington makes it hard.
 

Jonsoncao

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Educated hispanics just hated sleepy joek and Kamala playing the race card, but publicly they have to support due to PC lol.

Nov will be a slaughter.
 

Thaedolus

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Jun 9, 2004
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So the polls are correct and Biden is losing Hispanic support, along with the large lead he had in June. Good to know

I would assume so. My point was a lot of people laugh polls off when they’re inconvenient, and I made mockery of it. I believe the data that show Biden has less Hispanic support than Clinton, which I think is bad news, obviously.
 

finowns

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May 10, 2009
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Not really

It wasn’t like Trump squeaked by a win. He clearly defeated Hillary the polling had him losing in almost every battleground state by significant margin, for example Wisconsin was +6 for Hillary.

Another example is Minnesota which Hillary ultimately won by +1.5 but polling had her winning at a +8.5.


 

pramod

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All the Hispanics want is to open up the country so they can get back to work and support their families. Is it any surprise they prefer Trump?
 

Roronoa Zoro

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I'm a moderate and the left is driving me right. Sure its terrible trump isn't condemning the racist cops more but at least he's not supporting people who are throwing chairs at innocent restaurant goers and taking their beer. Honestly these protests are just getting more frustrating by the day. Theyve completely lost the plot. It doesn't even seem to be about changing the police anymore they just want free shit and to be able to do whatever they want to white people. Its so fucking ridiculous that Biden seems incapable of calling out BLM and saying they need to keep their marchers from going after all white people
 
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FStubbs

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I'm a moderate and the left is driving me right. Sure its terrible trump isn't condemning the racist cops more but at least he's not supporting people who are throwing chairs at innocent restaurant goers and taking their beer. Honestly these protests are just getting more frustrating by the day. Theyve completely lost the plot. It doesn't even seem to be about changing the police anymore they just want free shit and to be able to do whatever they want to white people. Its so fucking ridiculous that Biden seems incapable of calling out BLM and saying they need to keep their marchers from going after all white people

And I see the opposing side as saying "police - or people who decide they want to play cop - can do whatever they want to black people without consequence. And we'll make up an excuse for why they had to die. Not like their lives have any value or anything." If these protests are enough to "drive you right", you were on the right to begin with.
 

Roronoa Zoro

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And I see the opposing side as saying "police - or people who decide they want to play cop - can do whatever they want to black people without consequence. And we'll make up an excuse for why they had to die. Not like their lives have any value or anything." If these protests are enough to "drive you right", you were on the right to begin with.
Except they don't. If the police aren't charged with murder in many of the cases we've seen im against that. But what the fuck does drinking someone's beer and disrupting a simple dinner have to do with a cop being a racist asshole in another city? They use systemic racism as an excuse for any bad behavior or any shortcoming they've had in life. They're so entitled to everything and to being excused for any behavior. It's whataboutism at its finest and its pushed more and more every day it seems
 

Piku_Ringo

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I have known a lot of hispanics over the years and they actually pretty conservative. My wife is cuban and her family pretty much despises anything remotely resembling socialism.
Us Cubans don't play that shit, meng.
 

maneil99

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As important as this is in Florida, isn't Biden up with White voters, especially in swing states compared to Hillary?