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To comply China's new law, multiple games have released loot box rate in CN region.

chillybright

Banned
Mar 23, 2015
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China's regulation on loot bot was announced months ago and was detailed in this thread. Basically it requires games with paid loot boxes to reveal the drop rates in game or on official websites.

In the past few days, multiple games with paid loot box elements have revealed their respective loot rate in Chinese region, including League of Legends (Hextech loot boxes), Cross Fire, NBA2K Online, FIFA Online 3, Onmyoji (one of the most popular mobile gotcha games in China), while many other popular games have not released their statistics.

League of Legends Hextech loot boxes item drop rates.
Reddit discussion.
Fan translation:
Code:
Hero shards: 14.61%
Skin shards: 45.135%
Permanent Heros: 7%
Permanent Skin: 29.255%
Summoner Icons: 2%
Ward Skins: 2%
Do note here the above chances are most likely to be Chinese region specific as the pricing on loot boxes and skins are very different from other regions.

Gotcha game Onmyoji has very detailed loot drop rate including each R, SR, SSR card chances in each star rating, in-store Soul drop rate in each player level and way more.

Cross Fire Heroic Weapon and Item Card drop rate:


NBA2K Online star player pack drop rate:


FIFA Online 3 Enhancement successful rate:
 

the_lizard

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Oct 3, 2015
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But do these numbers apply to those games in all regions? Is there any variation between NA version and CN version?
 

DataGhost

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Oct 1, 2013
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I mean it's great that they're releasing it for the Chinese servers, but I feel they should do this everywhere. Else, they can just claim the Chinese ones are different percentages.
 

Imbarkus

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Mar 7, 2009
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What about... I can just buy the freaking skin I want form the store?

Is that so hard?

Is the improved margins from all the random drop bullshit going to justify the long-term expense of regulation in every territory, eventually? Maybe in the short term, benefitting current executives. In the long term it's poison for the industry.
 
Jan 20, 2010
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Absolutely, the more information people have about what they're throwing their money into the better. This shit is barely better than gambling.
(Legit) grambling is up-front about the odds and actually has a chance of getting you real money

This is worse
 
Apr 25, 2016
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Absolutely, the more information people have about what they're throwing their money into the better. This shit is barely better than gambling.
It's worse than traditional gambling IMO, because you're gambling for virtual goods and you don't know the odds. It is also way less regulated.
 
What about... I can just buy the freaking skin I want form the store?

Is that so hard?

Is the improved margins from all the random drop bullshit going to justify the long-term expense of regulation in every territory, eventually? Maybe in the short term, benefitting current executives. In the long term it's poison for the industry.
They also actually want the retention it drives.
 

Dimitri LH

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Aug 31, 2013
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What about... I can just buy the freaking skin I want form the store?

Is that so hard?

Is the improved margins from all the random drop bullshit going to justify the long-term expense of regulation in every territory, eventually? Maybe in the short term, benefitting current executives. In the long term it's poison for the industry.

In League of legends at least there are certain skins that are only posdible to get where you need 10 shards that only drop randomly from loot chests. Only way of getting chests is playing real good, but kinda caps you on chests for awhile, or paying for them.
 

Sho_Nuff82

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Jan 2, 2007
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What the hell does 0.02-75% mean?
Odds probably scale down after your first purchase. They sucker you in with a big win up front, then drop the floor out from underneath you.

Edit: Conversely, they could start low and then scale up as you continually fail. Then reset after a "win".
 

BlackBuzzard

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Sep 23, 2013
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Take it a step further: I want to see why duplicates are so prevalent even in legendaries. Seeing orange and it turning around to be a card you already have is the worst.
Okay yeah lets go with yours. Easy fix for that would be give people the chance to choose between 3 options like Gwent does.
 
May 18, 2010
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What about... I can just buy the freaking skin I want form the store?

Is that so hard?

Is the improved margins from all the random drop bullshit going to justify the long-term expense of regulation in every territory, eventually? Maybe in the short term, benefitting current executives. In the long term it's poison for the industry.
They literally don't want you to be able to do that. Giving you what you want doesn't mean you are going to come back for more.
 

Hanzou

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Jun 29, 2009
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I would love to see the chance of a legendary in hearthstone packs.
Hearthstone rates are pretty much already figures out through people submitting their pack openings online. Legendaries are on average 1 out of every 20 packs. You are also guaranteed one legendary ever 40 packs.
 

LKSmash

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Feb 4, 2014
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Okay yeah lets go with yours. Easy fix for that would be give people the chance to choose between 3 options like Gwent does.
I thought they should've given everyone one of the quests with this expansion. Or even a choice of 3. For it to be centered around a new mechanic and not provide a guaranteed card like C'thun was so greedy.
 

GearFourth

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Feb 20, 2016
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Got a feeling they changed the rates for China region just before they had to reveal it and i doubt one regions probability is the same as other regions.
 

Thatanas

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Nov 18, 2015
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Is there any basis we can compare this to EU/US drop rates? I know alot of people have calculated the pity rate for games such as Hearthstone, would be interesting to see if they are about the same.
 

hawk2025

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Jan 20, 2013
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A large number of posters are acting as if this has been useful information, but these companies have essentially skirted the rule by releasing utterly useless numbers and ranges and once again hide the probabilities.

The right way to do it is to release a FULL probability table for each lootbox.

This is nonsensical bullshit, from what I've seen so far. And the fact that they are not being forthcoming probably speaks volumes.
 

Golden_Pigeon

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Feb 5, 2016
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Odds probably scale down after your first purchase. They sucker you in with a big win up front, then drop the floor out from underneath you.

Edit: Conversely, they could start low and then scale up as you continually fail. Then reset after a "win".
This is common ? Damn. Is this present in CSGO for instance ?
 

Thatanas

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Nov 18, 2015
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A large number of posters are acting as if this has been useless, but these companies have essentially skirted the rule by releasing utterly useless numbers and ranges.

The right way to do it is to release a FULL probability table for each lootbox.

This is nonsensical bullshit, from what I've seen so far.
I like the way Fire Emblem: Heroes does it. For each Banner (out of which you can summon new heroes to play with) there are 5* Focus heroes (highlighted in the current banner), 5* Heroes (heroes out of a basic pool, but the highest rarity) and 4/3* heroes. All of them have their own drop chance, which increases after a full summon of not getting a 5*/Focus Hero.

Games like Overwatch, Hearthstone, HotS for Blizzard, Football Players for sportsgames etc. could easily follow this system for higher rarity drops I feel.
 
Jun 29, 2014
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This is a great start, but allowing anyone to use a range of values in their labelling (e.g. 0.2-0.75% etc) is setting up a loophole that can be used to conceal values in future.

E.g. S values being 0.2-0.75 doesn't mean anything if 9 out of 10 of the are 0.2 while the last is 0.75 just to make the boundary true on a technicality. The drop rates should be fully itemised. Developers shouldn't be able to complain about it being a burden to identify those stats because they must have already have a record of them when implementing anyway.
 

hawk2025

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Jan 20, 2013
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This is a great start, but allowing anyone to use a range of values in their labelling (e.g. 0.2-0.75% etc) is setting up a loophole that can be used to conceal values in future.

E.g. S values being 0.2-0.75 doesn't mean anything if 9 out of 10 of the are 0.2 while the last is 0.75 just to make the boundary true on a technicality. The drop rates should be fully itemised. Developers shouldn't be able to complain about it being a burden to identify those stats because they must have already have a record of them when implementing anyway.

It's not a burden at all.

Even in the most complex cases, these are simple conditional probability look-up tables.