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[chillybright]

China's regulation on loot bot was announced months ago and was detailed in this thread. Basically it requires games with paid loot boxes to reveal the drop rates in game or on official websites.

In the past few days, multiple games with paid loot box elements have revealed their respective loot rate in Chinese region, including League of Legends (Hextech loot boxes), Cross Fire, NBA2K Online, FIFA Online 3, Onmyoji (one of the most popular mobile gotcha games in China), while many other popular games have not released their statistics.

League of Legends Hextech loot boxes item drop rates.
Reddit discussion.
Fan translation:

Hero shards: 14.61%
Skin shards: 45.135%
Permanent Heros: 7%
Permanent Skin: 29.255%
Summoner Icons: 2%
Ward Skins: 2%

Do note here the above chances are most likely to be Chinese region specific as the pricing on loot boxes and skins are very different from other regions.

Gotcha game Onmyoji has very detailed loot drop rate including each R, SR, SSR card chances in each star rating, in-store Soul drop rate in each player level and way more.

Cross Fire Heroic Weapon and Item Card drop rate:

NBA2K Online star player pack drop rate:

FIFA Online 3 Enhancement successful rate:

 

[LKSmash]

Should be a standard everywhere.

 

[Espada]

Should be a standard everywhere.

Absolutely, the more information people have about what they're throwing their money into the better. This shit is barely better than gambling.

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

China don't care for your gambling bullshit.

 

[Juke Joint Jezebel]

Weren't Blizzard going to have to do this as well?

 

[Rains]

Should be a standard everywhere.

Agreed

 

[BlackBuzzard]

I would love to see the chance of a legendary in hearthstone packs.

 

[the_lizard]

But do these numbers apply to those games in all regions? Is there any variation between NA version and CN version?

 

[wiibomb]

Eagerly awating blizzard rates with Hearthstone and overwatch

 

[DataGhost]

I mean it's great that they're releasing it for the Chinese servers, but I feel they should do this everywhere. Else, they can just claim the Chinese ones are different percentages.

 

[Imbarkus]

What about... I can just buy the freaking skin I want form the store?

Is that so hard?

Is the improved margins from all the random drop bullshit going to justify the long-term expense of regulation in every territory, eventually? Maybe in the short term, benefitting current executives. In the long term it's poison for the industry.

 

[mieumieu]

The NBA 2K one is ridiculous and meaningless.

Oh and there are rare drops gatcha logs in the Onmyoji page too! That's nice

 

[LKSmash]

I would love to see the chance of a legendary in hearthstone packs.

Take it a step further: I want to see why duplicates are so prevalent even in legendaries. Seeing orange and it turning around to be a card you already have is the worst.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Absolutely, the more information people have about what they're throwing their money into the better. This shit is barely better than gambling.

(Legit) grambling is up-front about the odds and actually has a chance of getting you real money

This is worse

 

[Syf]

When's Blizzard's turn? I agree this should be mandatory everywhere.

 

[mullet2000]

What the hell does 0.02-75% mean?

 

[hawk2025]

The probabilities don't sum up to one.

What is this bullshit?

 

[Dark Ninja]

I want to see the Overwatch numbers.

Scum

 

[Skyzard]

That's pretty awesome, that should happen everywhere.

 

[Twookie]

Overwatch and Dota 2 numbers pls ^_^

 

[McStickenstein]

Absolutely, the more information people have about what they're throwing their money into the better. This shit is barely better than gambling.

It's worse than traditional gambling IMO, because you're gambling for virtual goods and you don't know the odds. It is also way less regulated.

 

[nubbe]

What the hell does 0.02-75% mean?

it means "fuck you, give me your money"

 

[Nirolak]

What about... I can just buy the freaking skin I want form the store?

Is that so hard?

Is the improved margins from all the random drop bullshit going to justify the long-term expense of regulation in every territory, eventually? Maybe in the short term, benefitting current executives. In the long term it's poison for the industry.

They also actually want the retention it drives.

 

[2+2=5]

That's a very good law, i support it.

 

[Couleurs]

What the hell does 0.02-75% mean?

Probably a weird way of saying 0.02 to 0.75%, since otherwise it would mean chances are somewhere between nonexistent and almost guaranteed.

 

[Freeman76]

reminds me of the old PSO drop tables

 

[Vegetable Lasagna]

Interested to see the numbers for Overwatch Dupe Boxes.

 

[Roldan]

Do we have Valve numbers? Interested in seeing those, especially CS:GO.

 

[Dimitri LH]

What about... I can just buy the freaking skin I want form the store?

Is that so hard?

Is the improved margins from all the random drop bullshit going to justify the long-term expense of regulation in every territory, eventually? Maybe in the short term, benefitting current executives. In the long term it's poison for the industry.

In League of legends at least there are certain skins that are only posdible to get where you need 10 shards that only drop randomly from loot chests. Only way of getting chests is playing real good, but kinda caps you on chests for awhile, or paying for them.

 

[Neoxon]

I'm just waiting for the Overwatch loot box rates.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

What the hell does 0.02-75% mean?

Odds probably scale down after your first purchase. They sucker you in with a big win up front, then drop the floor out from underneath you.

Edit: Conversely, they could start low and then scale up as you continually fail. Then reset after a "win".

 

[Hexer06]

Now do it for everywhere in the world! Haha

 

[BlackBuzzard]

Take it a step further: I want to see why duplicates are so prevalent even in legendaries. Seeing orange and it turning around to be a card you already have is the worst.

Okay yeah lets go with yours. Easy fix for that would be give people the chance to choose between 3 options like Gwent does.

 

[Old Gimlet Eyes]

What about... I can just buy the freaking skin I want form the store?

Is that so hard?

Is the improved margins from all the random drop bullshit going to justify the long-term expense of regulation in every territory, eventually? Maybe in the short term, benefitting current executives. In the long term it's poison for the industry.

They literally don't want you to be able to do that. Giving you what you want doesn't mean you are going to come back for more.

 

[Toni]

Hopefully Destiny 2 follows suit.

The Treausure Boxes that Eververse sells in Destiny 1 is just a plain shameless money grab.

 

[frontovik]

I want to see Blizzard's numbers to comprehend their absurdity.

 

[Hanzou]

I would love to see the chance of a legendary in hearthstone packs.

Hearthstone rates are pretty much already figures out through people submitting their pack openings online. Legendaries are on average 1 out of every 20 packs. You are also guaranteed one legendary ever 40 packs.

 

[Quadraphonic]

What the hell does 0.02-75% mean?

Probably the min/max range based on the kinds of boxes used.

IE:

"GUARANTEED RARE/LEGENDARY BOX" is the 75% chance one and literally everything else is the 1 in 5,000 box.

 

[LKSmash]

Okay yeah lets go with yours. Easy fix for that would be give people the chance to choose between 3 options like Gwent does.

I thought they should've given everyone one of the quests with this expansion. Or even a choice of 3. For it to be centered around a new mechanic and not provide a guaranteed card like C'thun was so greedy.

 

[BigEmil]

Got a feeling they changed the rates for China region just before they had to reveal it and i doubt one regions probability is the same as other regions.

 

[Liliana Eileen]

This absolutely needs to be a standard.

 

[Thatanas]

Is there any basis we can compare this to EU/US drop rates? I know alot of people have calculated the pity rate for games such as Hearthstone, would be interesting to see if they are about the same.

 

[hawk2025]

A large number of posters are acting as if this has been useful information, but these companies have essentially skirted the rule by releasing utterly useless numbers and ranges and once again hide the probabilities.

The right way to do it is to release a FULL probability table for each lootbox.

This is nonsensical bullshit, from what I've seen so far. And the fact that they are not being forthcoming probably speaks volumes.

 

[Paltheos]

"Overwatch loot box rate" waiting topic for me. Yup.

 

[Golden_Pigeon]

Odds probably scale down after your first purchase. They sucker you in with a big win up front, then drop the floor out from underneath you.

Edit: Conversely, they could start low and then scale up as you continually fail. Then reset after a "win".

This is common ? Damn. Is this present in CSGO for instance ?

 

[Thatanas]

A large number of posters are acting as if this has been useless, but these companies have essentially skirted the rule by releasing utterly useless numbers and ranges.

The right way to do it is to release a FULL probability table for each lootbox.

This is nonsensical bullshit, from what I've seen so far.

I like the way Fire Emblem: Heroes does it. For each Banner (out of which you can summon new heroes to play with) there are 5* Focus heroes (highlighted in the current banner), 5* Heroes (heroes out of a basic pool, but the highest rarity) and 4/3* heroes. All of them have their own drop chance, which increases after a full summon of not getting a 5*/Focus Hero.

Games like Overwatch, Hearthstone, HotS for Blizzard, Football Players for sportsgames etc. could easily follow this system for higher rarity drops I feel.

 

[Psychoward]

Should be a standard everywhere.

.

 

[formasymphonic]

This is a great start, but allowing anyone to use a range of values in their labelling (e.g. 0.2-0.75% etc) is setting up a loophole that can be used to conceal values in future.

E.g. S values being 0.2-0.75 doesn't mean anything if 9 out of 10 of the are 0.2 while the last is 0.75 just to make the boundary true on a technicality. The drop rates should be fully itemised. Developers shouldn't be able to complain about it being a burden to identify those stats because they must have already have a record of them when implementing anyway.

 

[Subpar Spatula]

Blizzard be sweating probably thinking of changing loot boxes and hearthstone pack percentages.

hnnng

 

[hawk2025]

This is a great start, but allowing anyone to use a range of values in their labelling (e.g. 0.2-0.75% etc) is setting up a loophole that can be used to conceal values in future.

E.g. S values being 0.2-0.75 doesn't mean anything if 9 out of 10 of the are 0.2 while the last is 0.75 just to make the boundary true on a technicality. The drop rates should be fully itemised. Developers shouldn't be able to complain about it being a burden to identify those stats because they must have already have a record of them when implementing anyway.

It's not a burden at all.

Even in the most complex cases, these are simple conditional probability look-up tables.