His charisma will not be enough to win any minority or women voters. He's screwed and has said too much shit already. Not to mention the man is thin skinned and will almost certainly lose it once Hillary tries to get under it. We've already seen how petty and childish he can get whenever the other GOP candidates tried to attack him. That will not fly in a very diverse electorate.
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Trump Finally Surpasses Clinton In National Poll
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Trump is actually unique within the GOP, a lot of his views are more moderate. It's anecdotal, but he is appealing to wide base of highly educated people (of all races) that I interact with everyday.
Veritigo_X
Member
A lot of people thought Trump had a good chance of winning based on the mood of the GOP base. The people discounting his chances subscribed to "the party decides" mentality that was true in the past.
Fortunately, the GE electorate is completely different than the GOP base. Just because Trump exceeded expectations by appealing to a tiny portion of the electorate doesn't mean he'll rise the same way once you take into account everyone else. He would need to make some serious inroads with demographics that absolutely despise him.
BearFlexington
Member
The very concept of a Super Delegate is anti-democratic. Super Delegates are not elected representatives of the people and yet your vote must be filtered through them. Super Delegates ensure that we never hear or see candidates that they don't want us to see. This is why the US has struggled with radical political change in the last 30-40 years. I'm curious as to why you (or anyone) would be in favor of more barriers between your will (vote) and the candidate you want.
Truly, the opportunities in this country are boundless
for those that inherit extreme wealth
all hillary has to do is keep her cool and point out when trump has either blatantly lied or said something hypocritical. I feel like that could be her whole strategy and she'd be fine.
the keeping her cool part is paramount though. she can't give off the perception that trump's bullshit is getting under her skin.
If super delegates voted exactly like pledged delegates. Bernie would be losing even worse the he is currently.
Hiding behind that argument doesn't help Bernie.
The US struggles with radical change by design of its government since the beginning of the country. Every major change has been hard fought over Many years.
Box of Kittens
Banned
A primary and a general election are two entirely different animals. Sam Wang (Princeton Election Consortium) gave Trump a 60% chance at the nomination before Iowa and he's saying, based on current polling, that Trump has roughly a 9% chance of winning the presidency now.
That's not to say that Wang's numbers should be taken as gospel or anything. There are legitimate criticisms of his methodology (and Silver's, and Cohn's, etc.) But mainly what I want to illustrate is that the people saying Trump is likely to lose in November are not just the people who wrote off his chances at the nomination.
I think Bernie would have had a chance against Trump just because Trump is such an awful general election candidate, but people seriously overestimate Bernie's strength as a general election candidate. His numbers in hypothetical matchups are largely a function of not having been attacked much by the GOP.
More_Badass
Member
A killer robot from the future and a wrestler both became governors
User 85168
Banned
fixed
You think there's something wrong with a person completely outside the government being able to run for the highest office? If so, you're absolutely crazy.
I mean, I'm no Trump supporter, but the fact that someone like him can go as far as he has is what makes this country great.
I uh just wish it was someone else, but hey.
Which still amounts to over 2 million less than what Hillary has received.
Treating a Trump presidency as an inevitability is also extremely dismissive of women and minorities as voting blocs, but sure, let's pretend that he can win the general election without them.
gutter_trash
Banned
WanderingWind
Mecklemore Is My Favorite Wrapper
"Trump will never seriously run, here are some charts that prove it."
"Trump will never win [insert state], here are some charts that prove it."
"Trump will never win enough delegates to get the nomination, here are some charts that prove it."
"Trump will never go to the convention uncontested, here are some charts that prove it."
"Trump will never win the general election, here are some charts that prove it."
"Trump will never win [insert state], here are some charts that prove it."
"Trump will never win enough delegates to get the nomination, here are some charts that prove it."
"Trump will never go to the convention uncontested, here are some charts that prove it."
"Trump will never win the general election, here are some charts that prove it."
Fenderputty
Banned
Yeah actually. His chances are worse for the general though.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
actually if you look back, the polling was with Trump the entire time for the primary, it was the pundits who dismissed him because of how racist, xenophobic and insane he was.
Veritigo_X
Member
You think there's something wrong with a person completely outside the government being able to run for the highest office? If so, you're absolutely crazy.
I mean, I'm no Trump supporter, but the fact that someone like him can go as far as he has is what makes this country great.
I uh just wish it was someone else, but hey.
On the other side, the fact that a bigot can go as far as he has revealed how terrible a good portion of this country is.
Can't wait to hear republicans justify their vote for him.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Superdelegates were created in advance of the 1984 election. In their history, they have literally never, as a group, voted against the winner of the most pledged delegates. Their votes have changed the outcome of literally zero nominations.
I'm also curious how they prevent people from hearing or seeing candidates they don't want us to see. By what mechanism? Endorsements? That hasn't prevented Bernie from getting his message out.
LegendofLex
Member
This right here.
perfectchaos007
Member
Their argument early on was that the establishment candidate, historically, always comes back from behind to win. And that trump leading in the polls early on was due to the fact there were 10+ people in the race, and he was polling well on name recognition alone.
Neither is trump among women and minorities.
You cannot win the Presidency off of just White male voters anymore.
RPGCrazied
Member
"He tells it like it is..."
That is all I ever hear, and "he is entertaining". Every single time I hear one of his supporters talk. Its madness.
Abinash117
Member
In the CNN poll she is winning nearly ever demographic against Trump.
You think there's something wrong with a person completely outside the government being able to run for the highest office? If so, you're absolutely crazy.
I mean, I'm no Trump supporter, but the fact that someone like him can go as far as he has is what makes this country great.
I uh just wish it was someone else, but hey.
Having so much money, you can buy your way to the Oval Office does not make this country great.
A bi-racial kid with no money and a single parent household making it to the presidency -- that makes this country great.
White people is a pretty big demographic, though.
Seriously, just going by demographics he's already fucked. He'll need to withstand nearly seven months of this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I88Gtsr4mzI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKmhK8G--7c
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/04/upshot/trump-would-have-uphill-battle-against-clinton.html
Good luck winning a general election in 2016 with just old, dumb white males.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I88Gtsr4mzI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKmhK8G--7c
LOL
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/04/upshot/trump-would-have-uphill-battle-against-clinton.html
Good luck winning a general election in 2016 with just old, dumb white males.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
It creates a stop gap between a true brokered convention and allows the winning candidate with the most pledged delegates to go over the needed number to be the nominee.
It's a primary, it doesn't need to be democratic. Shit back in the day we didn't even have primaries where people voted, the party would put forth their best candidate for the GE.
Do you think it's wrong that other democratic countries don't have primaries for their own political party, and simply have internal decisions on who the Prime Minister nominee will be as people vote for the party in what ever election they have?
You think trump is going to win 60% or more of white women voters? Over Hillary?
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Yes, early on everyone (including me) thought this was flash in the pan, Hermain Cain type of stuff.
But after a few months of him leading I came around to the idea that he is probably going to carry this.
Box of Kittens
Banned
People are obsessed with the idea of white working class men deciding the election. They just aren't a big enough voting bloc any more for that to be the case. Trump's only hope is to somehow improve his numbers among women and minorities. I don't see him successfully pulling off that pivot, but he's going to have to try if he wants to win.
WanderingWind
Mecklemore Is My Favorite Wrapper
Those pundits came wielding charts, precedent, facts and historical evidence that showed that Trump had no shot to do X. The point here is the folks who say so assuredly that he has no chance are either delusional or are hoping repetition of a thing will make it come to pass. Trump very clearly has a path to the presidency.
One that cannot be used to win a US presidential election while losing everyone else.
... What?
The woman who has been subjected to twenty years of non-stop Republican attacks, and who sat through an 11 hour parade of bullshit can't deflect attacks?
I don't understand where any of this is coming from. It's not based in reality.
So you are saying the pundits used the polling information incorrectly and thus the actual polls are wrong?
Veritigo_X
Member
I didn't say that. But comparing # of demographics is misleading when one demographic is many many times the size of other ones.
Republicans often win Whites and Males and lose most non-Age related demographics.
I think Trump is fucked. But people are overstating how fucked he is.
No, he isn't.
That's not enough to win the Presidency, go ask Romeny about that and Trump is doing worse then him in all none white male demographics.
Just to be clear, the vast majority of superdelegates are former Democratic officeholders. So saying they're "not elected representatives" is pretty much false. They have actually been elected to office as a Democrat. One of the benefits of that election is becoming a superdelegate. If you want to choose some superdelegates of your own, all you have to do is run some downticket candidates for Democratic nominations and win those elections.
InfiniteBento
Member
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Box of Kittens
Banned
The "evidence" was laughably bad. Nate Silver's infamous 2% figure wasn't based on any model, it was literally just him saying that he thought Trump faced six major obstacles to the nomination and that if you assumed his chances of clearly a given obstacle were 50% and those chances were independent, you'd get 2%. Even he would have cautioned you not to take that figure very seriously.
I'm not saying that Trump can't win, but right now the arguments that he's likely to win remind me a lot more of the arguments that he wasn't going to get the nomination than the arguments that he would.
Angelus Errare
Banned
How'd that work out for Romney exactly?
Sectorseven
Member
The problem is Hillary is so heavily favored right now she doesn't really have any demographics to strengthen. Conversely, Trump is so negatively viewed he can really only go up.
Watching Hillary face-off against what were essentially bloodthirsty Republicans during the Benghazi hearings like she was bored has me confident she can handle Trump.
But he is only going down in various demographics as he speaks more...
These arguments I can't. Even.
They aren't even attempting to be logical now.
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