Trump's Approval Rating Hits 50%

Jan 12, 2009
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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove.

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_feb08

Looks like also most people who watched his State of the Union address approved of it as well.

CNN Instant Poll: 76% Of Viewers Approved Of Trump State Of The Union

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...ers_approved_of_trump_state_of_the_union.html
 
Likes: zelo-ca

JORMBO

Darkness no more
Mar 5, 2009
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Rasmussen is typically quite a bit higher then all the other polls. The average of all the polls will most likely be somewhere in the low 40s.
 
Likes: Pomerlaw
Feb 22, 2009
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Rasmussen historically skews conservative, so don't take that as gospel. All other recent polls put Trump at between 38 and 42 percent.

Also, keep in mind that the SOTU poll likely isn't all that reliable. Remember, it's people who watched the speech. Many on the left, not to mention moderate conservatives, weren't about to watch Trump bloviate for an hour and 22 minutes. So the people participating in the poll are either Trump cheerleaders or were hate-watching it.
 
Likes: PkunkFury
Apr 15, 2018
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Rasmussen historically skews conservative, so don't take that as gospel. All other recent polls put Trump at between 38 and 42 percent.

Also, keep in mind that the SOTU poll likely isn't all that reliable. Remember, it's people who watched the speech. Many on the left, not to mention moderate conservatives, weren't about to watch Trump bloviate for an hour and 22 minutes. So the people participating in the poll are either Trump cheerleaders or were hate-watching it.
denial ain't just a river....
 
Sep 4, 2018
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Remember, it's people who watched the speech. Many on the left, not to mention moderate conservatives, weren't about to watch Trump bloviate for an hour and 22 minutes
lol keep dreaming. it's mostly liberals i see online salivating for every last word that Trump utters or Tweets. whenever a press conference is announced they take turns fantasizing about what he will say. TDS is very real.
 
Jun 17, 2004
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denial ain't just a river....
what part of his statements are incorrect?
Rasmussen historically skews conservative and 'people who watched the SOTU' is not a sample that can lead to judgments about overall approval ratings

lol keep dreaming. it's mostly liberals i see online salivating for every last word that Trump utters or Tweets. whenever a press conference is announced they take turns fantasizing about what he will say. TDS is very real.
When you quoted him, you cut out the part where he acknowledged this:

So the people participating in the poll are either Trump cheerleaders or were hate-watching it.
those are likely the other 24%.
Using CNN, since that's the firm cited by the OP for SOTU numbers:
viewers were roughly 17 points more likely than the general public to identify as Republicans, and were largely fans of the President.
And they even include the following note of caution:
SPECIAL NOTE OF CAUTION: This poll does not and cannot reflect the views of all Americans. It represents only the views of people who watched the speech.

Don't know why you guys are harping on a poster for making a very legitimate observation. Polls of people who actually sit through political speeches are largely polls of people who want to listen to those speeches
 
Oct 24, 2017
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Rasmussen isn't reliable in the sense of absolute numbers, but they do seem reliable at least in terms of the trends of his approval ratings. They did show his ratings drop quite a bit during the shutdown and now it shows a spike backup after the shutdown ended.
 
Likes: JareBear
Feb 22, 2009
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#16
denial ain't just a river....
No, it's called knowing how to parse statistics.

Are you going to claim that every poll except Rasmussen is inaccurate, for example? Or ignore CNN's own data indicating that SOTU viewers were the most partisan since 2001, and thus that the poll doesn't represent the broader American public?

I know Trump fans like to pretend he has a divine mandate to rule and that he's beloved by all, but the truth is very different.
 
Feb 22, 2009
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lol keep dreaming. it's mostly liberals i see online salivating for every last word that Trump utters or Tweets. whenever a press conference is announced they take turns fantasizing about what he will say. TDS is very real.
The facts tell a different story. CNN itself noted that the SOTU viewer base was the most partisan it's been in 18 years, and that viewers were far more likely to identify as Republican and pro-Trump from the outset. So are you going to accuse CNN of lying and thus delegitimize the poll itself, or accept that they're telling the truth and that this doesn't really represent the broader public's opinion?
 
Aug 3, 2010
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#18
Also, keep in mind that the SOTU poll likely isn't all that reliable. Remember, it's people who watched the speech. Many on the left, not to mention moderate conservatives, weren't about to watch Trump bloviate for an hour and 22 minutes. So the people participating in the poll are either Trump cheerleaders or were hate-watching it.
That's true. I imagine all the "Trump cheerleaders" went to their favorite site, CNN, to do the poll as soon as they could. And those who "hate-watched" don't like CNN so they weren't around to skew it back the other way.
 
Jun 17, 2004
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#19
Rasmussen isn't reliable in the sense of absolute numbers, but they do seem reliable at least in terms of the trends of his approval ratings. They did show his ratings drop quite a bit during the shutdown and now it shows a spike backup after the shutdown ended.
Exactly, just because Rasmussen is biased doesn't mean the data is irrelevant. Because Rasmussen leans right, it gives us a closer look at trends in conservative voters. When Rasmussen polls started dipping during the government shutdown, we could tell the dissatisfaction with the shutdown wasn't coming entirely from Trump's opponents, since even Rasmussen was tanking

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_feb08

In much the same way the popular vote isn't 'reliable' for presidential outcome, Rasmussen isn't 'reliable' for national political opinion. However, neither measure is 'useless' so long as you understand what's actually being measured

That's true. I imagine all the "Trump cheerleaders" went to their favorite site, CNN, to do the poll as soon as they could. And those who "hate-watched" don't like CNN so they weren't around to skew it back the other way.
this is not how the poll was conducted:
http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/02/05/rel3.-.sotu.reax.pdf
guys at least try to understand data before commenting on it
 
Likes: Trey
Jun 17, 2004
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#21
If it's not in the OP, I'm not digging it out myself.
which is fine, nobody's forcing you to dig it out yourself

It doesn't excuse making up information to fill in the missing details so they fit your biases. Why not simply post 'not enough information to form an opinion'?

All posting your imagined facts without disclaimer does is add to the confusion. People read your conjecture, assume it's true, and then decide to blame their misunderstandings on the MSM and 'lies, damned lies, and statistics' down the line when reality doesn't match their influenced perceptions
 
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Aug 3, 2010
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#23
which is fine, nobody's forcing you to dig it out yourself

It doesn't excuse making up information to fill in the missing details so they fit your biases. Why not simply post 'not enough information to form an opinion'?

All posting your imagined facts without disclaimer does is add to the confusion. People read your conjecture, assume it's true, and then decide to blame their misunderstandings on the MSM and 'lies, damned lies, and statistics' down the line
The OP says it's a CNN instant poll and the link says it was conducted by the SSRS with almost no information whatsoever. That could have meant anything.

Save your lecture for the actual biased person who determined that this was all due to "Trump cheerleaders" and "hate-watchers." I guess you had no issue with those determinations, though, because you only singled me out.
 
Jun 17, 2004
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#24
The OP says it's a CNN instant poll and the link says it was conducted by the SSRS with almost no information whatsoever. That could have meant anything.

Save your lecture for the actual biased person who determined that this was all due to "Trump cheerleaders" and "hate-watchers." I guess you had no issue with those determinations, though, because you only singled me out.
Agreed, the OP is sparse, and considering how lopsided it is, purposefully so. Ceding responsibility to an already biased OP is not a good place to start
You're still commenting on something you haven't bothered to look into, and filling in the blanks with your imagination to suit your conditioning in a way that others will latch onto and propagate further. This is NPC behavior, you are showing your programming
Once again, if you don't know the information, why not ask for more instead of inventing it to suit your needs? Or simply remain uninformed

Consider that the 'actual biased person' was not making up information. His 'cheerlaeders' and 'hate-watchers' comment was embellishing a true observation:
Also, keep in mind that the SOTU poll likely isn't all that reliable. Remember, it's people who watched the speech.
An observation not only called out at the very beginning of the video linked in the OP (by CNN themselves), but also backed up in the corresponding CNN article (which should have been linked by the OP to avoid confusion, rather than a weird 'retweet' of the information with no actual data). That poster actually understood the content of the poll
Call him biased all you want (we all are), at least he's not making up information to confirm and spread his bias. You are an 'actual biased person' as well, and your snap, uninformed response to that post demonstrates your bias comfortably
 
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Likes: GrizzleBoy
Jun 20, 2018
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Rasmussen is quite famously out of whack with almost every ratings measure in bias of conservatism.

If people didn't know any better, people would think it an accurate representation.

Its why Trump likes to cite it.
Thats true but then you remind yourself that they are one of the few that got alsmost everything right over the last 3 years and you suddenly realize that there is a bias just not in the place you are looking.
 
Jan 11, 2016
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Republican -leaning, outlier poll which less than two weeks ago had him like 9 points behind. He's getting a slight bump post-shutdown, which he took a beating on but he's still significantly behind according to most polls.
 
Jun 20, 2018
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Remember, it's people who watched the speech. Many on the left, not to mention moderate conservatives, weren't about to watch Trump bloviate for an hour and 22 minutes. So the people participating in the poll are either Trump cheerleaders or were hate-watching it.
Over 90% of republicans that tuned in and watched the speech like it and about 30% of democrats that tuned in like the speech but in reality its not about them they will vote dem no matter what, it is about indepenents and they overwhelmingly (80%) liked the speech, its pretty hard to buy into the fantasy that sotu was not a success.
 
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Oct 26, 2018
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Given what happened to Trump/Clinton polls where Trump got smashed in everyone I saw, bbut still won, I'd say take whatever internet poll you have and bump up Trump 10 pts.

Silent voters for Trump was 100% true.

People got to remember democrats are more urban hubbed and love internet stuff (incl online polls). That's why Clinton won lots of large cities, but got beat in small towns. Don't think too many small town folks waking up early to build farm equipment are logging on to do CNN online polls. And when the votes were tallied, Trump won the electoral. Clinton still won the popular vote by about 2 million I think. But that's not a lot. If anyone went by digital polls, you'd think Clinton would have won by 20 million.
 
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Depending on the parameters polls can tell any story you want so they're easily manipulated. That being said the shutdown ending and good SOTU address probably boosted his support 5-8 points. Needs to get the wall going to have a real shot at reelection imo.
 
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Depending on the parameters polls can tell any story you want so they're easily manipulated. That being said the shutdown ending and good SOTU address probably boosted his support 5-8 points. Needs to get the wall going to have a real shot at reelection imo.
I’m just curious, if he doesn’t build the wall how many voters is he really gonna lose? How many 2016 Trump voters are going to flip to Biden or Harris because the wall wasn’t built, when we all know they just need to echo how democrats made it nearly impossible to do so?
 
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I’m just curious, if he doesn’t build the wall how many voters is he really gonna lose? How many 2016 Trump voters are going to flip to Biden or Harris because the wall wasn’t built, when we all know they just need to echo how democrats made it nearly impossible to do so?
They don't flip, they become apathetic. Even as wild as 2016 was only about 58% of the eligible population cast a ballot.
 
Aug 22, 2018
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Re the polling company skewing conservative - not sure how this plays out in America but in the UK we have shy Tories, so the number of people who actually vote Tory usually outstrips the number who will admit to a polling company that they do. The Tories are the right-wing party in the UK. I presume a similar thing happens in the US. On that basis, it may be useful to skew the stats to account for that differential, though tbh it's always going to be an inexact science.
 
Jun 20, 2018
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Re the polling company skewing conservative - not sure how this plays out in America but in the UK we have shy Tories, so the number of people who actually vote Tory usually outstrips the number who will admit to a polling company that they do. The Tories are the right-wing party in the UK. I presume a similar thing happens in the US. On that basis, it may be useful to skew the stats to account for that differential, though tbh it's always going to be an inexact science.
Yep people know they could get mocked in the media and even lose jobs or standing in society if they say they vote for something the media disagrees with, so they basically lie and then in the privacy of the voting booth vote what they want.
 
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Likes: hariseldon

sahlberg

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Oct 27, 2017
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#40
Re the polling company skewing conservative - not sure how this plays out in America but in the UK we have shy Tories, so the number of people who actually vote Tory usually outstrips the number who will admit to a polling company that they do. The Tories are the right-wing party in the UK. I presume a similar thing happens in the US. On that basis, it may be useful to skew the stats to account for that differential, though tbh it's always going to be an inexact science.
>be me
>on subway, crazy fucker with broken glasses, dirty clothes, takling to himself about the goverment, holding a butterknife in his hand, waving it
> comes my way, asks me "do you work for the goverment?"
>I say no. He walks off.
>
> (I lied, I work as school teacher)

That is how the polls work today. No one want to expose themselves to the crazy fuckers in the alt-left so you lie about how you poll. Maybe crazy fucker will go away and leave you alone.
 
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