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Two Polls That Predicted Trump's 2016 Win Now Predict His 2020 Landslide Loss

belmarduk

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Nov 19, 2019
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Two U.S. polls which correctly forecasted the electoral victory of President Donald Trump in 2016 now have him slated to lose in a landslide to Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in 2020.

In 2016, both the Investor's Business Daily/TechnoMetrica poll (IBD/TIPP) and University of Southern California Dornslife/Los Angeles Times poll (USC/LA Times) both predicted Trump's victory.

The day before Election Day 2016, the IBD/TIPP poll showed Trump beating Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points and the USC/LA Times poll showed Trump beating Clinton by 3.2 percentage points.

In truth, Clinton ended up beating Trump by 2.1 percentage points in the popular vote, but the Electoral College votes still weighed in Trump's favor because he won the majority of popular votes in several critical swing states.

Both pollsters now have Trump losing.

Newsweek
 

Bolivar687

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The day before Election Day 2016, the IBD/TIPP poll showed Trump beating Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points and the USC/LA Times poll showed Trump beating Clinton by 3.2 percentage points.

In truth, Clinton ended up beating Trump by 2.1 percentage points in the popular vote, but the Electoral College votes still weighed in Trump's favor because he won the majority of popular votes in several critical swing states.
"Two polls that got it wrong in 2016 both show Trump losing."
 

Thaedolus

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The most likely scenario was Republicans retain the senate and lose the White House...now...


I may be dining on crow come November, but it seems just as likely a vat of salty tears will be delivered
 
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Nymphae

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LOL HAVEN"T YOU GUYZ SEEN THE MSM POLLS DRUMPF IS DONE FOR











Even more in the threadreader link


Tons of metrics and models point to a Trump win, suck more mainstream poles op
 
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TeKtheSanE

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The most likely scenario was Republicans retain the senate and lose the White House...now...


I may be dining on crow come November, but it seems just as likely a vat of salty tears will be delivered
The lady running against Cornyn here in Texas is doomed, just like Beto O'Rourke was.
 
It will be really interesting to see how it all plays out.. there is a CLEAR enthusiasm gap between the candidates.. but Biden is just running on being "Not Trump", as there is not going to be a ton of enthusiasm for NOT being something.

If you look at the rallies.. Trump is winning in a landslide. No one even shows up for Biden. Hell more TRUMP supporters show up to fly Trump flags as he drives by, it's sad.

If you look at social media, Biden is winning in a landslide. The Anti-Trump and the Never Trumpers (Lincoln Project etc) get thousands of likes and sick burns and 'dunks' on Trump. Blue checkmarks tell everyone what is best.

What is reality? I don't think either is a valid way of measuring. Same as I don't think traditional polling is going to be at all accurate going forward with politics so.. aggressive. I registered to vote for the first time in.. I dunno, 22 years, this year just so I could vote for Trump (Didn't in 2016). I think the craziness of 2020 (and really the whole presidency) is going to get a LOT of formerly NON-voters to turn out, but I don't think those people will automatically break heavily one way or another.
 

Croatoan

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That people are cheering the death of our country is depressing.

Biden will win, there is no doubt about that in my mind. I am honestly losing all hope in the future. I just can't fathom why seemingly rational individuals are siding with Marxist SJWs. How can you guys stand to share a platform with people that spew nothing but hate for the country and its people? That thinks an individuals worth only comes from how oppressed they are?

If the democrats disowned the SJWs and dropped identity politics I would be a democrat. As I personally fit politically with them on other things, but I am scared shitless at where that party is headed and so I vote republican. Not that my vote matters, or that anything matters. We are completely fucked, and after a mush for brains Biden lets his regressive handlers neuter the first amendment and get rid of the second the US is done for.
 

DeepBreath87

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We will see. I know where I live in PA, Trump will carry easily. It’s going to be interesting. I won’t pretend the polls inspire confidence. They don’t. But I’ll still be voting for Trump. I’ll take a blowhard who’s actions I mostly agree with over a senile old fool who seems more qualified for a nursing home than the White House.
 
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Whataborman

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Polls like this are somewhat good at predicting the popular vote but they are really bad at predicting who is going to win the election because it is based on the electoral college.

President Trump won in 2016 because there was a HUGE turnout for him in states that he needed to win. There is no indication that anything will be different in 2020.

However, the absentee ballot issue throws a cog into the works because liberals are taking full advantage of them and it's hard to predict if it will mean a greater liberal turnout via absentee ballots vs what the turnout would have been during a normal (non-COVID) election.

Ultimately, I think we're going to see some challenges at the state, local, and national levels related to mail-in ballots, regardless of the outcome.
 

jason10mm

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A biden win might be a disaster for the DNC. He is clearly a low energy president with a very low level of overall enthusiasm. Everyone is projecting their dreams and desires in him because the media is allowing him to say NOTHING and get away with it. So if he wins but the Senate stays red and Barrett is on the SC then all those special interests will come calling, there won't be wide spread support for the more socialist policies, and the "he's not trump" celebration will fade out quickly. Then the economic impact of covid is gonna hit and hammer biden into dust.

The media and social media has been trained to attack for 4 years, they need a target. Biden is gonna be that target. I think we might see a massive red wave in 2022 because trump has come to personify the entire "gop is evil" narrative so much that once he is gone I think he will take a lot of that bile with him.
 

Whataborman

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The media and social media has been trained to attack for 4 years, they need a target. Biden is gonna be that target.
No they won't. They will treat him with kid gloves, just like they treated Obama with kid gloves.


I think we might see a massive red wave in 2022 because trump has come to personify the entire "gop is evil" narrative so much that once he is gone I think he will take a lot of that bile with him.
I think we'll see a mid-term red wave regardless of who wins, assuming the GOP doesn't retake the House this election.
 
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Zefah

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A biden win might be a disaster for the DNC. He is clearly a low energy president with a very low level of overall enthusiasm. Everyone is projecting their dreams and desires in him because the media is allowing him to say NOTHING and get away with it. So if he wins but the Senate stays red and Barrett is on the SC then all those special interests will come calling, there won't be wide spread support for the more socialist policies, and the "he's not trump" celebration will fade out quickly. Then the economic impact of covid is gonna hit and hammer biden into dust.

The media and social media has been trained to attack for 4 years, they need a target. Biden is gonna be that target. I think we might see a massive red wave in 2022 because trump has come to personify the entire "gop is evil" narrative so much that once he is gone I think he will take a lot of that bile with him.
Yeah, if they don't take the Senate along with the presidency, it's going to be bad for Democrats, I think.
 
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iconmaster

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I just can't fathom why seemingly rational individuals are siding with Marxist SJWs.
Biden has, wisely, distanced himself from the more extreme positions of his followers. I don't think most Biden voters are voting for socialism, or even for social justice. I think there's a lot of frustration with the state of the country in general, and some at Trump himself. If you're just looking for something to change after the year we've had, Trump probably doesn't look like change.

Even the best incumbent would struggle after months of pandemic, lockdowns and social unrest.
 

jason10mm

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No they won't. They will treat him with kid gloves, just like they treated Obama with kid gloves.
I dunno, I think they got a bit testy towards him by the end. Plus Obama was just dammed good at keeping shit clean and tight in his house.

If social media was as prevalent in his first term and the MSM on as much life support as they are now, I don't think Obama would have gotten nearly as easy a ride. Media today is all attack attack attack, they can't survive on hope and optimism, nor do they still have the skillset for comprehensive journalism anymore.
 

NickFire

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That people are cheering the death of our country is depressing.

Biden will win, there is no doubt about that in my mind. I am honestly losing all hope in the future. I just can't fathom why seemingly rational individuals are siding with Marxist SJWs. How can you guys stand to share a platform with people that spew nothing but hate for the country and its people? That thinks an individuals worth only comes from how oppressed they are?

If the democrats disowned the SJWs and dropped identity politics I would be a democrat. As I personally fit politically with them on other things, but I am scared shitless at where that party is headed and so I vote republican. Not that my vote matters, or that anything matters. We are completely fucked, and after a mush for brains Biden lets his regressive handlers neuter the first amendment and get rid of the second the US is done for.
They played the long game well. Attained a virtual monopoly in the educator ranks and indoctrinated the masses. Then they spread out to most media, and now control the narrative. The average college educated American has no idea what they are voting for, but feel very confident that anyone voting the other way is low information and/or ist ist ist. Its that simple.
 

Croatoan

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Biden has, wisely, distanced himself from the more extreme positions of his followers. I don't think most Biden voters are voting for socialism, or even for social justice. I think there's a lot of frustration with the state of the country in general, and some at Trump himself. If you're just looking for something to change after the year we've had, Trump probably doesn't look like change.

Even the best incumbent would struggle after months of pandemic, lockdowns and social unrest.
Then Biden should come out condoning SJWs like Trump should do for white supremacists. They are both different sides of the same coin after all. As a centrist I think both parties should cast off their left and right wings so we can actually get some things done.
 
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EHuntingon

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Perhaps the Democrat civil war that you've been predicting for so long will start up soon and hand Trump a landslide victory.
There's fractures in both parties. The populist side of the Republicans seems to be winning on the Right, but assuming there's a Trump loss, you're going to see a power struggle once the election is over. I assume the same for the Democrats. If Biden loses, there's going to be a fight over which direction the party should go. Either way, I suspect the winning party will be able to hold their side together until the next election.
 

EHuntingon

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If that were to happen yes it's definitely over. Not going to happen though without some shenanigans.
Not this election, at least. Eventually, I think it's going to be a battleground state. Demographics are changing in Texas, especially with all those California transplants. I used to think Texas was always the fallback, but now it seems like Texas will inevitably flip blue. That day is going to be a very sad day.
 
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Thaedolus

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The winner will likely be decided in court imo making polls like this especially useless. 2020 has been one of the most upside down years on record and ruling anything out no matter how outlandish is foolish.

If nothing happens to tighten the race in the next three weeks (and really, right now because people are already voting), it won’t be close enough to take to court.
 
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