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Two Polls That Predicted Trump's 2016 Win Now Predict His 2020 Landslide Loss

Ten_Fold

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Jan 18, 2017
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No doubt Biden would be up in these polls, people want things to go back to the Obama era, Trump era is too much for a lot of voters and even voters. For all you conservative people, this election could end back up on the liberal side. Again this will be a close election.
 

TaySan

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Dec 16, 2018
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Encouraging news from Florida. Democratic turnout so far in Florida is higher than Republicans in all 67 counties. Keep voting Florida peeps! If Trump loses FL he has no path to victory without it.
 
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Zefah

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Jan 7, 2007
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Encouraging news from Florida. Democratic turnout so far in Florida is higher than Republicans in all 67 counties. Keep voting Florida peeps! If Trump loses FL he has no path to victory without it.
For what it's worth (and I'm not going to pretend that I'm in the majority or anything) I am still a registered Democrat. Just sayin'.
 
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CloudNull

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This thread in comparison to the Donald is wild. The information they are showing is making it not look good for Biden at all. Apparently Trump thinks Oregon is in play.

I find it odd that the polls would be so wrong but if they are it will be a talking point for weeks for the MSM. I wouldn’t disregard them setting the bait now.

I will be in Mexico for a while after the election.... this shit is going to be madness.
 

TaySan

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This thread in comparison to the Donald is wild. The information they are showing is making it not look good for Biden at all. Apparently Trump thinks Oregon is in play.

I find it odd that the polls would be so wrong but if they are it will be a talking point for weeks for the MSM. I wouldn’t disregard them setting the bait now.

I will be in Mexico for a while after the election.... this shit is going to be madness.
No offense, but I wouldn't consider thedonald a reliable site for anything. Do they really think Trump has Oregon? lol
 

EviLore

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All the 2016 models were wrong in the end, but they've made adjustments to account for that in 2020. The gap has opened up significantly after the first debate. It looks like Trump is out, but we'll see.
 

autoduelist

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All the 2016 models were wrong in the end, but they've made adjustments to account for that in 2020. The gap has opened up significantly after the first debate. It looks like Trump is out, but we'll see.
Eh. The cult has upended how many institutions at this point? ACLU? New York Times? Why not polling companies?

I live in an Antifa city. I have seen two Biden signs. If I leave the city, I see American flags everywhere. I have seen full on done up Trump trucks [the kind memes are made of]. At grocery stores, I see subtle Trump voters all the time lately, more and more [flag masks, military baseball caps, etc... which normally wouldn't mean anything, but do here, perhaps].

I don't think we can trust the media on this one. I mean sure, Biden may win... but if I had to trust my eyes and ears, Trump has it. Well... that isn't quite right - given where I am, Biden would clearly win my city. But with no enthusiasm, no energy, just fueled by hate of Trump. And even so, a lot of people here still secretly will support Trump.

In my opinion, we are being gaslighted on every topic relentlessly. We can no longer tell what mass consensus is, just what we are told it is. Which, honestly, has been true for decades in my opinion... but has come to a head in 2020. Covid, social distancing, media programming, everybody at home on devices..... a perfect storm for manufactured realities. I'm not saying I know who will win... I just think nobody can know [maybe big tech knows].
 
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dkny1121

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Mar 23, 2018
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I think America deserves to have a Far Left Puppet leader for 4 years and to watch how much of a shit hole it will turn into in 4 years. Biden had zero sense or ideas and will be a puppet. Might be best for Repubs to hope it happens so in 4 years they can sweep and hold on to a victory for a long time.

Let them put in all these policies like student loan forgiveness and free everything. When the average person sees the major tax increases and spending power plummet maybe they will wise up.

The biggest victory is already done and that is to secure the Surpreme Court, nothing else matters long term.
 

dkny1121

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Mar 23, 2018
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Encouraging news from Florida. Democratic turnout so far in Florida is higher than Republicans in all 67 counties. Keep voting Florida peeps! If Trump loses FL he has no path to victory without it.
Means nothing because 75 percent of Republicans asked refuse to vote by mail.
 
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autoduelist

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I think America deserves to have a Far Left Puppet leader for 4 years and to watch how much of a shit hole it will turn into in 4 years. Biden had zero sense or ideas and will be a puppet. Might be best for Repubs to hope it happens so in 4 years they can sweep and hold on to a victory for a long time.

Let them put in all these policies like student loan forgiveness and free everything. When the average person sees the major tax increases and spending power plummet maybe they will wise up.

The biggest victory is already done and that is to secure the Surpreme Court, nothing else matters long term.
If the Dems control the Executive and the Senate I fear our Constitutional Republic will be unrecognizable in 4 years, with significant changes made to ensure we never get another anti-Establishment candidate near the White House.

I wouldn't put a slew of normally off the table changes past them - more states, packing courts, ending the Electoral college.... more. They currently have no brakes.

Hell, we have Biden wanting 'I will confiscate your guns' O'Rourke as gun czar, Cuomo as AG... yeah, this is not the year to take chances with the far left in charge.

Edit - fixed a dam hominem.
 
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mashoutposse

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Jun 22, 2004
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Trump has been an exceptionally persuasive advertisement for exclusively hiring establishment candidates going forward.

It looks like this guy is going to set the GOP back for a good, long while. “Remember Trump?” will be an effective motivator for Democrats for the next 8 years at least.
 
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j0hnnix

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Eh. The cult has upended how many institutions at this point? ACLU? New York Times? Why not polling companies?

I live in an Antifa city. I have seen two Biden signs. If I leave the city, I see American flags everywhere. I have seen full on done up Trump trucks [the kind memes are made of]. At grocery stores, I see subtle Trump voters all the time lately, more and more [flag masks, military baseball caps, etc... which normally wouldn't mean anything, but do here, perhaps].

I don't think we can trust the media on this one. I mean sure, Biden may win... but if I had to trust my eyes and ears, Trump has it. Well... that isn't quite right - given where I am, Biden would clearly win my city. But with no enthusiasm, no energy, just fueled by hate of Trump. And even so, a lot of people here still secretly will support Trump.

In my opinion, we are being gaslighted on every topic relentlessly. We can no longer tell what mass consensus is, just what we are told it is. Which, honestly, has been true for decades in my opinion... but has come to a head in 2020. Covid, social distancing, media programming, everybody at home on devices..... a perfect storm for manufactured realities. I'm not saying I know who will win... I just think nobody can know [maybe big tech knows].
I agree and I hope what I'm seeing is what comes out in Nov. I do take Polls with a grain of salt. I've seen here in north GA. is Trump signs , American Flags, shoot I was driving and watched a large group of vehicles with Trump flags about roughly 14 vehicles. While visitng the custom auto shop I spent 2 hours just talking with the guy about how he felt on these topics , San Francisco, Portland etc. He couldn't show more support on Trump than Trump himself. Obviously GA is pretty Red but this was from someone who has family in California, moved out , and damn 40mins was his concern of why his sister is still in SF. Almost got me to buy a hidden gun safe in the truck. 😂

Visually you see the support but these numbers really do construe where the country is going. Anyways Nov needs to hurry up to get this whole thing past us.
 
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Boss Mog

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What people tell pollsters and what they do in the booth can be quite different, especially in these times of Trump supporter witch hunts. It's gonna be a shitshow either way with the mail-in ballots. Probably won't have a winner for weeks and a good chance of not ever knowing who really won.
 
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Aug 18, 2020
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Every single indicator except polls is that Trump will win by a landslide.

To me, however, the reason I feel like I do is because the non-poll indicators are concrete evidence. There is no argument about enthusiasm. There is no argument about registrations. There is no argument that a very large number of people have got guns. There is no argument that there have been massive Trump rallies in normally deep blue areas.

The polls on the other hand and all hand-waving magic behind the scenes. "Well, I called 1000 people and got 500 D and 500 R. Well, I know people of the age range I could reach are more likely to vote R, so I need to give more points to D. Rs are currently not feeling Trump, so I need to give even more points to D. So let's call it 59% D 41% R based on my assumptions. Biden has an 18 point lead!"
 

Patriots7

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That people are cheering the death of our country is depressing.

Biden will win, there is no doubt about that in my mind. I am honestly losing all hope in the future. I just can't fathom why seemingly rational individuals are siding with Marxist SJWs. How can you guys stand to share a platform with people that spew nothing but hate for the country and its people? That thinks an individuals worth only comes from how oppressed they are?
The current president ran and won by spewing hate for the country, implying that the country was not great.
In the past week, he’s disparaged 3 of the largest states in the country.
He’s routinely used a host of derogatory remarks to describe many cities throughout the country *during* his term as president.

It’s remarkable you even attempted to make this argument.

“Oh no, people want America to be more equitable, those rapscallions!”
 

IDKFA

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Yeah, I can definitely see Trump losing by landslide. Absolutely cannot see him winning a second term. He's fucked.

If Trump wins I'll chew my dick off.
 

autoduelist

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The corporations support Biden. Trump had spectacular fundraising in the lead up to all this, and was generally beating or neck to neck with the entire field during primaries.

And that's not even looking into possible shenanigans.

HRC spent 1.2 billion dollars and lost.

Point is, I don't think campaign contributions are the best indicator of grassroots support, and certainly don't secure a win.
 

EHuntingon

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Jul 30, 2013
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The corporations support Biden.
Imagine thinking you're fighting the good fight when all the major corporations line up behind you. Imagine thinking you're morally virtuous when the companies that caused the 2008 financial crisis support the same candidate as you. Biden supporters are, at best, hypocrites blinded by partisanship.
 

Sign

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Encouraging news from Florida. Democratic turnout so far in Florida is higher than Republicans in all 67 counties. Keep voting Florida peeps! If Trump loses FL he has no path to victory without it.
Dems always lead in early vote for Florida. On the other hand, the dem / rep registration divide is the lowest it has ever been.
Every single indicator except polls is that Trump will win by a landslide.

To me, however, the reason I feel like I do is because the non-poll indicators are concrete evidence. There is no argument about enthusiasm. There is no argument about registrations. There is no argument that a very large number of people have got guns. There is no argument that there have been massive Trump rallies in normally deep blue areas.

The polls on the other hand and all hand-waving magic behind the scenes. "Well, I called 1000 people and got 500 D and 500 R. Well, I know people of the age range I could reach are more likely to vote R, so I need to give more points to D. Rs are currently not feeling Trump, so I need to give even more points to D. So let's call it 59% D 41% R based on my assumptions. Biden has an 18 point lead!"
Polling has been getting worse for decades. Presidential polling has a long history of being all over the place. It tends to be really bad during realignments and when there is a large divergence between classes, which is what is happening right now.

Doesn’t help that people keep comparing polls with actual vote totals.

Take the “Trump is losing seniors” meme. There is no evidence for it. Instead what you have are people comparing polling to the final vote share. What is funny is that if you actually compare like for like polls from 2016, Trump is doing better than what he had then in those polls.


I will also say, a lot of these polls are expecting a turnout number that there is just no evidence for.


More people are voting by mail, but that is due to Covid. We’ve not seen a crazy surge of registrations, or anything to suggest these unprecedented numbers these people are predicting.

Ultimately, I think Trump will win, but it will be close.

The corporations support Biden. Trump had spectacular fundraising in the lead up to all this, and was generally beating or neck to neck with the entire field during primaries.

And that's not even looking into possible shenanigans.

HRC spent 1.2 billion dollars and lost.

Point is, I don't think campaign contributions are the best indicator of grassroots support, and certainly don't secure a win.
Trump continues lead Biden on small dollar donations (more than 50% of his donations). Most of Biden’s come from big dollar.
 
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DunDunDunpachi

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You have a pot of water on the stove, over a roaring fire. The water is boiling, spilling into the flame below. You place a thermometer into the bubbling, churning H2O and it reads 50 degrees Fahrenheit.

Do you put your hand in?
I'd plunge my hand in like it's the fuckin Gom Jabbar test.
 
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008

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We will see. I do think there's more enthusiasm to vote in this election versus 2016(actually showing up to cast a ballot).
 

Gouty

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Biden wins, America is fucked. We become a socialist nation like Venezuela.
Become? Obama successfully harnessed the chaos emeralds in 2012, casting this once great nation into a socialist free fall.
Unless... no.....

You’re not suggesting we’re on the cusp of DOUBLE SOCIALISM!?
 

jason10mm

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He must be stopped!
This feeds my theory that the polls are rigged, but now they are worried that folks just won't show up, thinking biden has it in the bag so they can stay home feeling morally superior but confident that trump at least won't be in office.

But they need to keep pushing an "expected" biden win so they can claim a trump win is illegitimate, so I bet just the battleground states will have the polls narrow, it won't be reflected nationwide, so it motivates the battleground state voting but doesn't make it seem like trump has national momentum.

Getting ACB in is critical, I think that will demoralize quite a few extremists and her stoic rationality will assure some moderates that trump sorta kinda does know what he is doing.
 
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