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Two Polls That Predicted Trump's 2016 Win Now Predict His 2020 Landslide Loss

Saturnman

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Is there any reason to think this election is different than the recent British election? Didn't every poll have Labour winning by a ton and then they preceded to have their worst crushing ever?
As in Labour was expected to lose which is why Boris Johnson called the December 2019 election in the first place?

 

TheUsual

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Dec 10, 2009
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Hawaii is going Red lollolololol.

No fucking way Biden wins. I official think the were are being Gaslit.
Make's it an easier sell to say the election was stolen from Joe Biden if the public gets gaslit into believing his landslide victory but then loses (if he does lose).
Then more shenanigans continue with contesting election results.
 

draw4wild

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Sep 23, 2011
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As in Labour was expected to lose which is why Boris Johnson called the December 2019 election in the first place?

I stand corrected, I feel it was reported differently. Or is it just that we’re expected to lose but they loss much worse than expected?
 
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Jun 26, 2013
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They never will, which is what the margin of error seeks to account for.
Margin of error is the 95% confidence interval (or whatever level of confident you want to set at), of which you can calculate yourself or through a program. You simply need to calculate the standard deviation and then, divide it by the square root of the sample size. This is what we call the standard error. Lastly, you multiply the SE by 2 and then add/subtract it from the mean.

Based on what I described, margin of error has little to do with eliminating confounding variables. You can have very consistent samples while using a very terrible methodology. That consistency will lead to a small standard of deviation which will lead to a small standard error and therefore, a small margin of error.
 

mashoutposse

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The corporations support Biden. Trump had spectacular fundraising in the lead up to all this, and was generally beating or neck to neck with the entire field during primaries.

And that's not even looking into possible shenanigans.

HRC spent 1.2 billion dollars and lost.

Point is, I don't think campaign contributions are the best indicator of grassroots support, and certainly don't secure a win.
Here’s another bad indicator.


Trump gets thousands and thousands of people to come out to his rallies; shouldn’t he be crushing “sitting in a circle” Biden in fundraising?
 

jsnake19

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Mar 30, 2020
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Here’s another bad indicator.


Trump gets thousands and thousands of people to come out to his rallies; shouldn’t he be crushing “sitting in a circle” Biden in fundraising?
And where are those donations coming from? I mean, is it really a surprise that the corporate stooge candidate and his bought and paid for running mate are getting huge donations from these corporations and their employees?

And as far as the absentee ballot thing is concerned, insert nic cage gif here...you don't say?? The party who is scared out of their mind to vote in person because of the plague virus is choosing to mail in their ballots early while the party who doesn't trust the postal system to not accidently lose their ballot is waiting to vote in person? What a shocker!
 

Zefah

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Here’s another bad indicator.


Trump gets thousands and thousands of people to come out to his rallies; shouldn’t he be crushing “sitting in a circle” Biden in fundraising?
Wow, I didn't realize the funding gap had widened so much.

But, then again:


Clinton's raising nearly $1.2B vs. Trump's $650M did not win her the election in 2016 and Trump is actually raising quite a bit more money than he did last time, whereas Biden is up and down compared to Clinton depending on the month and out in the campaign field far less than she was (maybe for the better...).

edit: misread the Bloomberg monthly numbers so removing those.
 
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JORMBO

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Clinton out raised Trump by a large amount in 2016 also. Trump gained his advantage by having a solid message and going out and talking to people like crazy. Running 1-3 rallies a day was more effective then running fundraisers to buy endless TV ads. We'll see if that's all still effective for him in 3 weeks.
 

mashoutposse

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Clinton out raised Trump by a large amount in 2016 also. Trump gained his advantage by having a solid message and going out and talking to people like crazy. Running 1-3 rallies a day was more effective then running fundraisers to buy endless TV ads. We'll see if that's all still effective for him in 3 weeks.
Recall that Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million in a low-turnout election.

Wow, I didn't realize the funding gap had widened so much.

But, then again:


Clinton's raising nearly $1.2B vs. Trump's $650M did not win her the election in 2016 and Trump is actually raising quite a bit more money than he did last time, whereas Biden is up and down compared to Clinton depending on the month and out in the campaign field far less than she was (maybe for the better...).

July 2016
Clinton: $264.4M
Trump: $89M

July 2020
Biden: $140
Trump: $165


August 2016
Clinton: $315.4M
Trump: $125.2M

August 2020
Biden: $364
Trump: $210


September 2016
Clinton: $373.3M
Trump: $165.9M

September 2020
Biden: $383M
Trump: ???
I’m not sure that we’re reading those Bloomberg numbers right. Clinton did about $150 million each in August and September.


Biden’s August numbers were already a record.
 
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Zefah

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Recall that Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million in a low-turnout election.



I’m not sure that we’re reading those Bloomberg numbers right. Clinton did about $150 million each in August and September.


Biden’s August numbers were already a record.
Ah, you're right. Misread those monthly numbers as money raised that month, not money raised to date.

The point stands that Clinton had basically double the money in 2016.
 
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Zefah

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I expect a lot of goalpost moving if Biden wins, like with the 2018 elections.
The goalpost moving I saw in 2018 was from the Left. I was active on Resetera back then and man, all the hype was for an overwhelming blue tsunami. The narrative was all about how Russia stole 2016 and Americans were actually overwhelmingly against Trump and the Republicans and they were going to get slaughtered at the polls. It was going to be Tea Party 2010, but even bigger, and for the Democrats. A decisive rejection of Trump and everyone who supported him. That really didn't happen.
 
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JORMBO

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Recall that Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million in a low-turnout election.
No one cares about or runs their campaign around winning the popular vote. I'm not even sure why people try to bring that up. Trump was able to talk to and energize enough people in a few key states to give him the edge. Whether or not he can recreate that this time is to be seen.
 

j0hnnix

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Place where people say Bumble Fuc***
Funding for Biden is going to be large, he does have a majority of Hollywood, Sports stars and musicians on his side(including 2pac). I am not surprised he has been able to achieve this amount for his campaign, now he can make more smores for his virtual sit downs.
 

autoduelist

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Me too. That or talk of a rigged election.
It will be deserved given only one party seems to be against voter ID, doesn't care about chain of custody of votes, supports ballot harvesting, doesn't respect the Electoral College, etc. Well fucking deserved.

Especially given said party just spent 4 years pissing in the wind over Russiagate, Ukrainegate, and all the rest.

Exactly what posts here do you think are embarassing? I see Trump Rallies pulling massive crowds daily. I live in a far left city and have seen 2 Biden signs. Polls show a massive enthusiasm gap. There are strong arguments to be made for the silent majority.

Does it mean Trump will win? Of course not.

It cracks me up your pre-emptively suggest Trump supporters will somehow embarrass themselves as if the HRC clan haven't been dousing themselves in their own shit for 4 years straight. You, yourself, have embarrased yourself, and do so right now trying to spend a few weeks hoping it isn't Trump so you can laugh at... what? People who understand how elections work?
 
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Funding for Biden is going to be large, he does have a majority of Hollywood, Sports stars and musicians on his side(including 2pac). I am not surprised he has been able to achieve this amount for his campaign, now he can make more smores for his virtual sit downs.
Think how much good could have been done for BIPOC and low income communities if the billions of dollars he raised had been spent on them instead of ads?

#shame
 

TaySan

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They have it as being 50/50 now.
Considering this is Georgia that's still pretty crazy. People are pissed after what happened in 2018.
 

Apeopleman

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Keep in mind republicans often keep their views close to their chest and show up on game day

We all can agree polls don't mean anything. Look at 2016
 

LarknThe4th

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He may already be out of time.
I remember arguing with people here about him not condemning the proud boys in the debate they said he did(when he didnt) and it wouldnt matter, i argued it would play horribly to moderates who make up the vast majority of the voting base

Trump basically energised the moderate Democratic voting block, something he could not afford to do because Biden is basically there dream candidate

People want off the crazy ride
 

showernota

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Jun 6, 2020
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Polling is no longer viable.


Some 50% say they are better off than they were four years ago, compared with 34% who say they are worse off. However, 58% say the country is worse off than four years ago, compared with 38% who say it is better off. Moreover, more than 60% of voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction.

EDIT: Well, except this one :messenger_winking:
 
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May 22, 2018
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It cracks me up your pre-emptively suggest Trump supporters will somehow embarrass themselves as if the HRC clan haven't been dousing themselves in their own shit for 4 years straight. You, yourself, have embarrased yourself, and do so right now trying to spend a few weeks hoping it isn't Trump so you can laugh at... what? People who understand how elections work?
No I am saying it BECAUSE the HRC supporters did exactly that and the Right proceeded to meme them into the ground for the last 4 years for it. I have seen countless references to the Left not being able to accept election results and all the memes about the Left thinking the election was rigged etc etc. I am genuinely curious if the Right is going to hold themselves to the same standard and not do those same exact things should Trump lose. I'm not trolling and its not a meme. I really am curious how Trumpers will react if he loses. Because in my head I am basically expecting the Right wing version of Russiagate where the Right throws a tantrum over the "mainstream media", celebrities, athletes, etc etc having nefariously/illegally swayed the election in their favor.


I would love to be wrong though. I am tired of seeing the United States play out its political shitshow on the world stage. I would like some peace and quiet at this point.
 
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EHuntingon

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I really am curious how Trumpers will react if he loses. Because in my head I am basically expecting the Right wing version of Russiagate where the Right throws a tantrum over the "mainstream media", celebrities, athletes, etc etc having nefariously/illegally swayed the election in their favor.
Maybe that happens, but I can't imagine it would happen to the same degree. How many pro-Trump athletes and celebrities are out there? Maybe Fox News and The Blaze will pitch a fit, but do they hold as much cultural relevance? Without the Presidency, I just don't see the Right having that much sway over the general discourse in America.


I am tired of seeing the United States play out its political shitshow on the world stage. I would like some peace and quiet at this point.
You and me both.
 

autoduelist

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No I am saying it BECAUSE the HRC supporters did exactly that and the Right proceeded to meme them into the ground for the last 4 years for it. I have seen countless references to the Left not being able to accept election results and all the memes about the Left thinking the election was rigged etc etc. I am genuinely curious if the Right is going to hold themselves to the same standard and not do those same exact things should Trump lose. I'm not trolling and its not a meme. I really am curious how Trumpers will react if he loses. Because in my head I am basically expecting the Right wing version of Russiagate where the Right throws a tantrum over the "mainstream media", celebrities, athletes, etc etc having nefariously/illegally swayed the election in their favor.

I would love to be wrong though. I am tired of seeing the United States play out its political shitshow on the world stage. I would like some peace and quiet at this point.
I can already tell you.
The right will almost certainly entertain the idea the election was stolen because Democrats have been consistently undermining election integrity and trust for the last 4 years and calling for policies that harm integrity. In addition, under Covid, the DNC have been trying to change the rules last minute, never good for trust.

Meanwhile, we are the height of big tech censorship and crazy partisanship. Mailmen and politicians are getting arrested across the country for small vote fraud related crimes. There is zero trust.

The mistake you are making is comparing 2016 and 2020 and acting as if they are similar standards. They are not. The Democrats had no reason to suddenly treat a relatively beloved reality tv star as Hitler, and were the very ones who made a huge deal out of 'accepting the results'... until they lost.

Meanwhile, in addition to big tech censorship, we see Webster changing word definitions on the fly. DAs letting rioters go. Multiple executions of Trump supporters in the street. The NYT forcing out anyone not in lockstep with the far left. The ACLU becoming a mockery of itself.

The left has spent 4 years destroying our faith in elections... so of course people will question this one. Rightfully so. Trying to compare it to the Democrat reaction to 2016 shows an utter blindness to what has transpired since then.
 
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Paulxo87

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Let me put it like this.

If on election day the average swing state democrat sees biden up big time in the polls and decides to stay home instead of waiting hours in line this could be a disaster for biden. Because there is little enthusiasm to vote for biden even within the dem ranks other than NOT TRUMP.

This is the reason for the mail in votes... not so much to do with fraud(thought I'm sure some may happen)
 
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Bladed Thesis

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Recall that Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million in a low-turnout election.
"We lost the game but made more 3 point shots so we probably should've won"

"We lost the game but kicked more field goals so we probably should've won"

"We lost the game but took more shots on goal so we probably should've won"

This is so dumb, I find it hard to believe people actually think like this.
 
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mashoutposse

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"We lost the game but made more 3 point shots so we probably should've won"

"We lost the game but kicked more field goals so we probably should've won"

"We lost the game but took more shots on goal so we probably should've won"

This is so dumb, I find it hard to believe people actually think like this.
The discussion is about the impact of money on a campaign. The amount of people that the respective campaigns turned out to vote is relevant.
 
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he discussion is about the impact of money on a campaign. The amount of people that the respective campaigns turned out to vote is relevant.
According to the OP, that's not what the discussion is about.

So, by your own actions, you are happy to allow the discussion to evolve...

..but, by your own actions, you are unhappy to allow the conversation to evolve in directions that you don't want it to.


Always the same authoritarian hypocrisy. You deny others the privileges you so freely award yourself.
 
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Drake

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These threads are going to be really funny to look back on if Trump does end up losing.
He is gonna lose and this is coming from someone who supports him. Unless Biden does something completely egregious before the election he'll be the next president.

I think Trump's biggest mistake was in the debates. He needed to let Biden talk. Interrupting Biden actually helped him.
 

Hissing Sid

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Feb 19, 2015
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Wall to wall Tim Pool wing flapping syndrome in here. Lawks!

Just breathe and calm your pants down, it'll all be ok. Trumps gonna win. The resident wokesters will crawl back under their rocks for a while, the laughably transparent Reshitera provocateurs will fuck off back to their dystopian little internet clubhouse and we can all toast marshmallows together over the subsequent msm meltdown dumpster fire.

It'll be nice, cosy like.


 

mashoutposse

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According to the OP, that's not what the discussion is about.

So, by your own actions, you are happy to allow the discussion to evolve...

..but, by your own actions, you are unhappy to allow the conversation to evolve in directions that you don't want it to.


Always the same authoritarian hypocrisy. You deny others the privileges you so freely award yourself.
?

He quoted me and responded to me and appears to have misunderstood the context of what I said. I’m correcting him.
 

Raven117

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He is gonna lose and this is coming from someone who supports him. Unless Biden does something completely egregious before the election he'll be the next president.

I think Trump's biggest mistake was in the debates. He needed to let Biden talk. Interrupting Biden actually helped him.
His biggest mistake was Covid and being Trump. Debates didn't move the needle jack shit.