UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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Glasgow? It's going to be really interesting to watch the SMSM over the next few weeks and see if it turns voters on or off? We've voted what, seven times in the last three years? Voter apathy is real.
A bit further north, I'd rather not reveal exactly where :p

But yeah, feels like endless voting, only two weeks ago we got the poll cards for May 4th. A mess!
 
If Labour only gets ~120 seats, is the party functionally dead? Even in the 80's it wasn't that bleak. How does Labour rebound from that?
I think they are buggered until people get their Brexit and the fervour dies down. I'm kinda glad it's Corbyn that is around to take the punishment and a little nervous that he goes leaving the next to face a fruitless few years.
 
To be honest if it were to blow up in her face it'd be more of a long term deal, and would require opposition parties to jump on it.

Because what's very likely to happen with this is that the Conservatives will emerge with a majority. A strong majority. But it may be a majority predicated on an odd alliance primarily driven by a single issue - Brexit. So while she may take that majority as a signal of a mandate for a Conservative government, those people aren't actually guaranteed to like whatever she does in government, and may abandon her once they get a real taste of it. Where they would flock to is unclear though, and if a competent opposition is not in place by the election now set for 2022 (i think), they may just abstain or persist with the Tories.
Yeah. This election will likely result in a vulnerable and large majority for the conservatives. They may win a lot of seats by only a few percentage points. And yeah the tories need around 45 percent of the vote to get over 400 seats I think at this point looking at past elections with three or more political parties unless their is a crazy spilt in the Labour/Lib Dem vote.
 
Oh, yeah, sorry, I just got off the phone with party HQ and they told me that someone actually replaced Goldsmith with a parrot in a HIGHLY CONVINCING rubber suit.

Goldsmith was the incumbent, he had a 23,000 majority over the Lib Dems, and we beat him.
Great, well done, but it has literally nothing to do with the Lib Dem's performance in general, and everything to do with Zac Goldsmith, so it's pretty disengenous to use it as an example of some kind of nationwide fight back. He left the tories, lost 14,000 votes, and they didn't even field a candidate due to misreading the situation.
 

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
This will be interesting. There could be some major swings if people become single issue voters over the next few weeks. May is really rolling the dice here. It could blow up in her face.
If I were running things for Labour I'd probably just mention NHS cuts non stop. Talk up the fear of privatization and really turn it into a big single issue. Nothing else will penetrate.
 
If Labour only gets ~120 seats, is the party functionally dead? Even in the 80's it wasn't that bleak. How does Labour rebound from that?
It would be difficult, without something odd happening, for Labour to go down that low.

Here's an example. Suppose a dream campaign for the Lib Dems sees them get parity with Labour, and both got 22% of the vote...



Labour ends up with 5.5x the seats that the Lib Dems end up with.

Suppose the Tories got 45% of the vote and Labour got 19%? Labour would still be on about 138.
 
Certainly going to be an interesting election, if Brexit becomes the overriding issue for voters then could we see some interesting swings?

Tory Remainers fearing a Hard Brexit heading to the Lib Dems?
Labour Leavers not trusting Corbyn/Labour to follow through on Brexit head to the Tories?
Labour Remainers feeling betrayed by Corbyn whipping MPs to allow Article 50 Bill to pass unapposed heading to the Lib Dems?
The 12.7% of the electorate who voted UKIP in 2015, where do they go? Continue with UKIP, or head back to Tory/Labour?

I could see the Lib Dems picking up seats at the expense of both Tory and Labour, which would really fuck with May's grand ambition for calling this election in the first place. That would be just super. :)

Or is Brexit now a distant memory, and on the whole people will continue to vote based on whatever Ma & Pa used to do? In which case we'll probably end up with Conservatives being returned to power, but perhaps with an extra.... 10-15 seats?
 
It would be difficult, without something odd happening, for Labour to go down that low.

Here's an example. Suppose a dream campaign for the Lib Dems sees them get parity with Labour, and both got 22% of the vote...



Labour ends up with 5.5x the seats that the Lib Dems end up with.

Suppose the Tories got 45% of the vote and Labour got 19%? Labour would still be on about 138.
Huge win for Jeremy.
 
If I were running things for Labour I'd probably just mention NHS cuts non stop. Talk up the fear of privatization and really turn it into a big single issue. Nothing else will penetrate.
This. Does. Not. Work.

Seriously, even labour knows it doesn't work. They run on the NHS when they have nothing else. They've run on the NHS every election!

We might not like it, but Cameron innoculated the tories enough on the NHS to get away with it for now, and the fact that labour have been talking about 'last chance to save the nhs' for over a decade and we still have an nhs makes it even worse.

If labour tries to ignore the Brexit elephant in the room and focuses on the nhs, may will walk away with an even more ridiculous majority than we're already looking at.
 
I think Corbyn will try to cling on after the election citing 'lack of time to prepare and really put our case across'. He'll probably ask for more time, and I fear Momentum will give it to him. I think Lib Dems should go all out on urban seats where people take a liberal international facing view on things. They can really win a decent amount of people over who are social liberals but centre-right economically. Really hammer it home that the social conservatives in the Conservative party are in control and will make things worse. Also play up the fact that you and your children cannot take advantage of things like cheaper education (taught in English) in mainland Europe, and neither can you live in mainland Europe anywhere near as easily as you can do now depending on what kind of deal is reached.

I don't see how a soft Brexit is some impossible thing to negotiate. Switzerland and Norway have precisely that, a purely economic relationship. It's the closest thing to the EEC you can get in today's Europe. And it's odd because the Tories are socially conservative on matters like citizenship and nationhood now but progressive on some things like for example saying 'prison is primarily for rehabilitation, society should give ex-offenders a chance to make things right'. I know this because I've recently tried to get a job in a prison before and I've looked into the MoJ's work to prepare for the interview. Weird.
 

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
This. Does. Not. Work.

Seriously, even labour knows it doesn't work. They run on the NHS when they have nothing else. They've run on the NHS every election!

We might not like it, but Cameron innoculated the tories enough on the NHS to get away with it for now, and the fact that labour have been talking about 'last chance to save the nhs' for over a decade and we still have an nhs makes it even worse.

If labour tries to ignore the Brexit elephant in the room and focuses on the nhs, may will walk away with an even more ridiculous majority than we're already looking at.
oh I know it doesn't work but I'm just trying to think of issues that will move the needle for people. Europe was a big issue last time but that's done. The conservatives now have their "stability" going for them which makes brexit arguments difficult and the LIb Dems will probably pick up a lot of protest votes. I struggle to think of anything big enough that touches enough people that you could appeal on some emotional level like the NHS. I don't know what else Labour could do to be honest.

I think Corbyn will try to cling on after the election citing 'lack of time to prepare and really put our case across'. He'll probably ask for more time, and I fear Momentum will give it to him.
I think any moderate support he has at this point is gone.
 

Crab

Famed for his Europa Universalis IV exploits
The Labour party has never been and never will be a revolutionary marxist party. Clause 1 of the constitution.
Of course. I was mostly just digressing - I find not many people have actually read Marx, and those that did never went beyond at most Manifesto - and this is as true of its supporters as detractors. It's annoying that one of the most interesting political theorists in human history is reduced to facile pop understandings by first-year university students. I'm definitely not advocating a Marxist Labour Party, I tell you that much! :p
 
Of course. I was mostly just digressing - I find not many people have actually read Marx, and those that did never went beyond at most Manifesto - and this is as true of its supporters as detractors. It's annoying that one of the most interesting political theorists in human history is reduced to facile pop understandings by first-year university students. I'm definitely not advocating a Marxist Labour Party, I tell you that much! :p
I've always treated Marx as a piece of philosophy and history, more or less the same way I view Hegel. I'm all for Marxists being Marxists if they want to be, just not in the Labour party please. And be prepared to defend the nonsenses.
 
I live in a very safe Labour seat, not sure if I'll vote Labour or one of the smaller local candidates. Doesn't really matter either way. Will probably default to Labour.

I believe tactical voting against the Tories is the way forward for the Left, for this election. It probably won't do much, but, hey, might as well try anyway. But if Labour suffers a heavy defeat, Corbyn has to go - and I say this as someone who has supported him (although that support has become pretty lukewarm now).
 

axisofweevils

Holy crap! Today's real megaton is that more than two people can have the same first name.
I'll vote for Lib Dem, but it won't make any difference. I live in a heavy Brexit area here. During the EURef, Vote Leave signs were everywhere.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Certainly going to be an interesting election, if Brexit becomes the overriding issue for voters then could we see some interesting swings?

Tory Remainers fearing a Hard Brexit heading to the Lib Dems?
Labour Leavers not trusting Corbyn/Labour to follow through on Brexit head to the Tories?
Labour Remainers feeling betrayed by Corbyn whipping MPs to allow Article 50 Bill to pass unapposed heading to the Lib Dems?
The 12.7% of the electorate who voted UKIP in 2015, where do they go? Continue with UKIP, or head back to Tory/Labour?

I could see the Lib Dems picking up seats at the expense of both Tory and Labour, which would really fuck with May's grand ambition for calling this election in the first place. That would be just super. :)

Or is Brexit now a distant memory, and on the whole people will continue to vote based on whatever Ma & Pa used to do? In which case we'll probably end up with Conservatives being returned to power, but perhaps with an extra.... 10-15 seats?
Even more complicated than that. So far today I've talked to:
- that UKIP voter staying with UKIP
- a solid Labour remainer who will vote Tory because "Theresa May needs all the help she can get"
- a couple of LibDems sticking with LibDem
- an ex-Labour UKIPper now voting Tory because he can't stand Corbyn and thinks the LibDems are for losers

I think the LibDems are the only party that won't lose any voters. Beyond that I can't see anything but fog.
 
Even more complicated than that. So far today I've talked to:
- that UKIP voter staying with UKIP
- a solid Labour remainer who will vote Tory because "Theresa May needs all the help she can get"
- a couple of LibDems sticking with LibDem
- an ex-Labour UKIPper now voting Tory because he can't stand Corbyn and thinks the LibDems are for losers

I think the LibDems are the only party that won't lose any voters. Beyond that I can't see anything but fog.
Are you a professional canvasser or something? Only reason why you're talking to that many people.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Are you a professional canvasser or something? Only reason why you're talking to that many people.
I'm a shopkeeper. I got in the habit during the referendum campaign of chatting (politely and lightly) to my customers about politics, and they seemed to enjoy it. So I keep doing it.
 
The 2015 results here were a total shit show.


General Election 2015 results

Electorate: 70,914
Turnout: 72.57%
Result: Con hold
Swing: 1.72% swing Con to UKIP
Party 2015 Change
Cons 57.67% 6.12%
UK Independence Party (Ukip) 13.21% -
Lib Dem 12.01% -17.09%
Lab 12.98% 3.47%
Green 4.14% 3.1%
 
Great OP Dan.

I just read that my MP, Alan Johnson, is retiring. Ultrasafe Labour seat though, so the local Labour constituency party could probably put anyone up for election and they'd win.
 
Great OP Dan.

I just read that my MP, Alan Johnson, is retiring. Ultrasafe Labour seat though, so the local Labour constituency party could probably put anyone up for election and they'd win.
I hope he writes some memoirs. I'd be fascinated to hear his insights into the rumoured coup of Miliband before the 2015 general (which was expected to put him in charge)

Edit, apparently he already did some. I'm good at this
 
Added both predictions to the Excel spreadsheet (quote to reveal).



Quiche, you've selected too many MPs. Crab, I removed NI parties and lumped it in with other, as no-one her seems to pay enough attention to politics outside of Great Britain.
Whoops, I thought I made it add up to 650...

Oh well, given the scoring system I don't think it really matters too much?
 
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