UK PoliGAF |OT3| - Strong and Stable Government? No. Coalition Of Chaos!

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D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
According to Mr Morgan, he then asked the Labour leader what he’d said to the footballer.

He wrote: “Corbyn smirked. ‘I told him to please send Arsène Wenger my very best and assure him he continues to have my full support, even if he’s lost yours, Piers. In fact, particularly because he’s lost yours…’”
 
But what has he achieved? If his aim is to become leader of the Tory party, has this move made that more likely?
IMO yes - the next leader of the Tory party is almost certainly going to be a Hard Brexiteer. Boris is doing what he needs to to swing around influence, get people writing about him (especially European officials saying he is an idiot, as that only gives him more armour with the headbanger base that the Tories need to keep). The Tories absolutely cannot afford to go backwards away from their Kipper-lite approach to Brexit. To do so is to give Corbyn the keys to number 10 as Tory voters jump ship to the hard right.

Cable summed up the situation at his speech to LD conference yesterday - Brexiteers are masochists who want the pain bourne by somebody else. They are going to react very badly to May's retreat from headbanger principles and Boris is a far more sensible lightning rod to attract support than Rees-Mogg.

Again, this is all speculation - I also know full well I am in the minority on this. I think this is clever manoeuvring rather than the incompetence that most sources are interpreting it as.
 
Anyone else think something is going down at the CPAC? Given the rumours are all pointing to May giving the EU tonnes of money I'd start looking for odds of her being assassinated on stage if it weren't in poor taste.
 
If by CPAC you mean their autumn conference, I dunno. The civil war that will start if May declares a transition period and a payment to Brussels could blow over quickly or fracture the party in two depending on how the key players act. Depends on if May ends up taking the role of sin-eater for this as lots are speculating - make it all her fault so the next Tory leader can take over fresh.

The conference will probably just be a managed affair with little interesting to talk about other than May's expiration date. What matters are the key players in the cabinet and what they do once the Tories row back from a transitionless and feeless Brexit. If UKIP swung even a small percentage of Tory votes back it would see certain seats swinging back Lib Dem or further seats swinging Labour in England.
 
https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/910507804716359680

Fuck me, they don't ever want to be elected again, do they?
aside from the fact that its too goddamn long, the baseball cap and the closer are decent.

Plus its always nice to see that LibDems are as competent at choosing which PR firm to hire as they are at selling public property for a good price. Hey Ho!

Cable summed up the situation at his speech to LD conference yesterday - Brexiteers are masochists who want the pain bourne by somebody else.
So... sadists?
 
@britainelects

% of public who find [X] to be out of touch:

T. May: 66% (+23)
J. Corbyn: 32% (-12)

via @IpsosMORI, 15 - 18 Sep
Chgs. w/ Sep 2016
Question seems deliberately vague on what they're supposed to be "out of touch" with. Corbyn is out of touch with a lot of people, but May is out of touch with reality.
 
You all have terrible senses of humour. This is the worst response by the British public since the EU referendum.
I'm not personally a fan of the PPB, as I've never been a fan of this sort of comedy. But if some folks like it I guess it does it job. I'd rather getting an actual comedian on board to write a funny PPB than do something with a less focussed voice.
 
Speaking of humour, I'm watching Question Time hoping for some banter from Strong and Cable and Mason, and we've already got 'The EU is a totalitarian socialist bureaucracy!'

Question Time is going to kill my liver, but at least I'm enjoying my anger.
 
Couldn't even make it halfway through QT tonight. Had to turn it off after that older woman started on her rant about doing 10 years of independent research on the EU before she voted to leave.
 

Crab

Famed for his Europa Universalis IV exploits
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 40% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
GRN: 1% (-1)

via @IpsosMORI, 15 - 18 Sep
Chgs. w July
UK hurtling towards two-party status at an ever faster rate. If the crosstabs are to be believed (probably not), the Liberal Democrats would kick out the SNP to be the party with the 3rd most seats - a whole 14!
 

Crab

Famed for his Europa Universalis IV exploits
that was the norm before the SDP broke off from Labour, wasn't it?
Yes, pretty much. If it hadn't been for the Con-Lib pact in the 1950s, the Liberals would have been down to 1 seat in 1959. They were more or less dead anyway, but revived thanks to a hung parliament increasing their prominence and making them a meaningful vote, then the SDP split and fusion gave them a proper presence. Now that's been lost, it'll be incredibly hard to recover in the face of FPTP. My personal suspiscion is that the current LD position is the new normal for them.
 
My personal suspicion is that the current LD position is the new normal for them.
I understand your logic, but I'm (somewhat obviously) on the other side of the fence.

It's a two stage process for the LDs to really return to strength IMO.

Stage 1 is now - rebuild at a council level, campaign on the big issues, slowly increase the number of MPs the party has. This also means losing far less deposits.

Stage 2 is when there's been a return of quite a lot of councillors, the party is on something like 20 MPs and far less deposits are lost. The party can make a play as the third party and really start putting pressure on the two big parties again.

The LDs are two years into the post-coalition rebuild, but increasing the number of MPs this year was ultimately a good result. So if you peg the next election as a couple of years away, and in that one you get the LDs up to 20 MPs (which is far from impossible - St Ives, Ceredigion, Fife North West and Richmond Park makes 16, so you're already half-way there with negligible Tory->LD swings and Labour voters being more willing to vote tactically) and after that you can start thinking about pulling a 1997.

So I think the current situation as a political observer at Westminster is the new normal until the next election, and maybe until the one afterward. But I can't see the Lib Dems being stuck at some 7% rut forever.
 
2 parties is the natural ground state for a FPTP electoral system. The Lib Dems owe their existence to a quirk of internal party politics, not some untapped desire for a third choice. The identities of those top two only change due to the large-scale swings of history. Mass industrialisation birthed the Labour Party. It will take a similarly large change in the world to break the current duopoly. Mass automation maybe?
 
Well we won two new councillors last night so evidently we're currently somewhat needed somewhere.

The route for the LDs to power is not the same as the route for the big two. It's longer for one thing, but it's also closely bound in local activism.

Compare that to Labour winning random seats this time because of a youth surge. Lib Dems win very specific seats because of a combination of the right people and the right issues in the right place. It's that growing collective of MPs who then slowly pull more and more of the public in to voting for us, and you then get a breakthrough election like 1997.

All things considered if we managed to recover from the merger, we can, and will, recover from 2015. I think we'd recover a lot faster if Corbyn ran the country and we were not in the middle of Brexit, but I think recovery to where we were in 1997 is achievable.

The only area I think is in dire straights is Wales right now, and I see the road back for us there as very challenging. Reclaiming Brecon or Monty from the Tories (and getting Ceredigion back) would be an important first step, though.

But considering we were completely removed from the mainland in Scotland and have managed to reclaim three seats there with a look in on a few others, for example, I think it's very hard to see a situation where the LDs are down and out forever.
 
I mean, it *is*. It's hard to see how it could be any other way whilst large, powerful countries disagree though. Pointing out somethings' flaws doesn't make you anti- whatever it is.
There's flaws with the UN sure but I don't think May really cares about what they are. This is just the same vague "bloated, corrupt" criticisms thrown at the EU. Criticisms that will be true for any organisation above a certain size.

There's a world of difference between May doing this (now, as British PM) and, say, the Guardian's article from last year that discusses specific failings of the UN and why these failings occur.
 
There's flaws with the UN sure but I don't think May really cares about what they are. This is just the same vague "bloated, corrupt" criticisms thrown at the EU. Criticisms that will be true for any organisation above a certain size.

There's a world of difference between May doing this (now, as British PM) and, say, the Guardian's article from last year that discusses specific failings of the UN and why these failings occur.
I think you're just seeing what you want to see, or rather seeing it in the light you want/expect to. There's nothing in what she said - assuming The Times' depiction of it's accurate - that's hard to swallow. Her criticisms aren't vague, they're pretty specific.
 
Revealed: plots by cabinet’s ‘big four’ to seize May’s crown

The fragility of Theresa May’s grip on power was laid bare last night as it was revealed that four of her senior ministers had made plans to replace her after the general election.

With the prime minister already presiding over growing cabinet divisions after her big speech on Brexit, she faces a fresh blow today with the news that Boris Johnson, Philip Hammond, David Davis and Amber Rudd were embroiled in leadership plots after she surrendered the Tory majority.

In a move that could have brought down May, the chancellor texted the foreign secretary at about four o’clock in the morning after the election signalling that he was prepared to back Johnson if he ran for the leadership.

A source who discussed the leadership with the chancellor that morning says Hammond thought Johnson should head a triumvirate in which Davis “could run Brexit, [Hammond] could run the economy and Boris could run the shop”.

“I know on that first day he thought Boris could be the answer because he’d have this reach and appeal,” the Hammond ally said.

The plan foundered when it became clear May was not going to stand down and Davis signalled that he would not defer to Johnson.
Triumvirates always work out well.
 

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
I can't see boring old Hammond ever going for something like that. Plus he's pretty much diametrically opposed to Davis' well established position (I think) and Johnson's stated position. Hmm. Still, maybe it's recognition of how shit May is.
yeah I'd believe it more if it didn't come from The Times and didn't include Rudd and Hammond. I mean Rudd took the bullet for May in those TV debates and Hammond isn't going to scheme with Boris and Davis. Sounds like a load of shit to be honest on the back of Boris's failed attempts to undermine May last week.

on the other hand though it is the Tories. They'd stab you in the front for a better office.
 
yeah I'd believe it more if it didn't come from The Times and didn't include Rudd and Hammond. I mean Rudd took the bullet for May in those TV debates and Hammond isn't going to scheme with Boris and Davis. Sounds like a load of shit to be honest on the back of Boris's failed attempts to undermine May last week.

on the other hand though it is the Tories. They'd stab you in the front for a better office.
He did get treated like yesterday's man during the election campaign, I wouldn't put it past him. Now the Boris fan club is claiming he single handedly prevented May going for the Norway option so it could just be shit stirring against May just for the sake of it.
 
Not only have a lot of the MP's and the Labour Mayor's been denied speaking slots at the conference, but they're now being banned from the conference floor entirely and only being allowed on the conference halls balconies.

Andy Burnham and Steve Rotherham were both denied speaking slots and Sadiq Khan was only pencilled in at the last minute after a lot of backchanneling. Burham and Rotherham will instead make speeches at fringe events during the conference.

There's also a rumour that Burnham and Rotherham have been invited to speak at the Conservative conference in Manchester next week, where the Birmingham Mayor Andy Street has a key note speech.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...r-members-didnt-want-to-split-party-on-brexit

Shadow chancellor says conference is not ignoring Brexit but delegates chose other ‘bread and butter issues’ to debate

John McDonnell has dismissed controversy over the decision of the Labour party conference to exclude Brexit from a series of debates, saying this was the decision of members, who wanted to “build a consensus” on the issue.
Starmer’s speech followed a row on the opening day of the conference in Brighton on Sunday after it was announced that delegates had picked eight “contemporary motions” for debate and vote, including areas such as social care but not the party’s policy on the future relationship with the EU.

This spared the party leadership a potentially embarrassing row. Campaigners had hoped to debate the idea of Labour fighting to keep Britain in the single market permanently and continue free movement, which polls suggest have widespread support among members.
Overnight, as MPs accused the party leadership of swerving one of the most important issues for a generation, Labour’s governing national executive committee drafted an 11th-hour statement on the party’s Brexit position, which members will vote to accept or oppose on Monday afternoon.
Biggest issue of the generation, and they don't want to talk about it.
 
It makes sense even if it is fucked up, it's nearly impossible to reconcile what the people want with what is possible.
Closing your eyes and putting your fingers in your ears won't make the problem go away though. It's still going to be there when you open them up again.

As I said in the Brexit thread, I understand why Labour nullified the issue at the general election, but their playing a dangerous game backing the Tories approach at this stage. The time will soon come where they need to get off the fence and attack this farce. The damage to the country is already demonstrably underway, so they should use the ammunition.

The country is bitterly divided and nothing anyone can do will remedy that in a hurry. Therefore, caught between a rock and a hard place, cooler and more pragmatic heads should prevail and choose the side that favours economic strength over naive jingoism.
 
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