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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.

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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Has this been factored into predictions of the outcome in May? Or are they calculated purely on an assumed uniform national swing? Labour losing ~35 seats could be decisive.

Factored into the predictions. You remember how the polls used to look like 36 LAB / 33 CON for months and months until a little after the referendum? England's voting intentions have barely changed since then, that's pretty much all a Scottish Labour collapse. Elections Etc. was the last model to incorporate it and they did that a few months ago.
 

kmag

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Aug 27, 2012
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Has this been factored into predictions of the outcome in May? Or are they calculated purely on an assumed uniform national swing? Labour losing ~35 seats could be decisive.


It's factored into the current modelling.

It won't really be all that decisive because hell would freeze over before the SNP do a deal with the Tories so those MP's will count against the Tories if not for Labour. Labours performance may stop them getting a majority or even being the biggest party but the SNP would agree confidence and supply with them if push came to shove. Which will in turn cause major ructions at Westminster when our 2nd class MP's actually have some power.

I actually doubt the SNP will get more than 20-25 seats at a push (which would be an epic victory if you look at the majorities they'd have to overturn to get there) but they may have the balance of power.
 

Nicktendo86

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Liked Cameron's 'Bill Somebody isn't a person, it is Labour policy' line today. Labour benches were subdued by all accounts, they look like a party that know they are going to lose.
 

kmag

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Aug 27, 2012
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Liked Cameron's 'Bill Somebody isn't a person, it is Labour policy' line today. Labour benches were subdued by all accounts, they look like a party that know they are going to lose.

Everyone is losing. The Tories aren't exactly winning, they're actually further off a winning position than Labour, and the poll of polls has shown a marginal increase in the Labour 'lead'.

If Labour had a semi competent leader they'd be cakewalking it. As it is it's still a toss up which party claws itself to point where they can get enough MP's to have a shot at getting the smaller parties to prop them up. It looks like the Tory ceiling is well below 2010 results, and that's not going to be enough.
 

War Peaceman

You're a big guy.
Sep 24, 2009
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Everyone is losing. The Tories aren't exactly winning, they're actually further off a winning position than Labour, and the poll of polls has shown a marginal increase in the Labour 'lead'.

If Labour had a semi competent leader they'd be cakewalking it. As it is it's still a toss up which party claws itself to point where they can get enough MP's to have a shot at getting the smaller parties to prop them up. It looks like the Tory ceiling is well below 2010 results, and that's not going to be enough.

Saying if they had a competent leader is backwards thinking. They don't have a strong leader because they don't really have an identity. They are split between two big groups (Blairites-Brownites) both of whom are antiquated and out of touch. Their core identity - labour - is completely disconnected with them. The Tories have them in Southern England and the SNP in Scotland. Tony fucked them up big time.
 

pulsemyne

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Sep 6, 2004
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Everyone is losing. The Tories aren't exactly winning, they're actually further off a winning position than Labour, and the poll of polls has shown a marginal increase in the Labour 'lead'.

If Labour had a semi competent leader they'd be cakewalking it. As it is it's still a toss up which party claws itself to point where they can get enough MP's to have a shot at getting the smaller parties to prop them up. It looks like the Tory ceiling is well below 2010 results, and that's not going to be enough.
Considering the polls have been reasonably close for a good few months now I think we will get a close hung parliament in labours favour, especially if the tories don't turn up for the TV debates. It's a pretty good certainty that it will be either a lab/lid alliance or a Labour/SNP one.
Oh and you should all watch the documentary that was on BBC2 last night about the houses of parliament. Very interesting.
 

kmag

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Aug 27, 2012
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Saying if they had a competent leader is backwards thinking. They don't have a strong leader because they don't really have an identity. They are split between two big groups (Blairites-Brownites) both of whom are antiquated and out of touch. Their core identity - labour - is completely disconnected with them. The Tories have them in Southern England and the SNP in Scotland. Tony fucked them up big time.

I'm not saying if they had a strong leader, I'm saying if they had a semi competent one. Ed Milliband is by all accounts a relatively bright guy who has had in the past* some relatively interesting things to say on a few issues, but as a leader of a political party he completely fails the retail test which largely is the most important facet as UK politics get more and more presidential.

Labour could have a leader with a backbone made out of soggy cardboard struggling to straddle the divides between all various factions in the Labour party without so much as clue in terms of policy and they'd still win if that same leader could simply sound like someone people could relate with while sounding like he had a semblance of a clue. Ed doesn't.

For the opposition it's not so much what their policies are (as long as their not too out there, although the rise of UKIP makes me doubt even that now) but how the differentiate themselves from the incumbents. Oppositions don't get voted in, Governments get voted out, all the opposition has to do is not be too dickish and sound competent. Milliband may not be a dick (I don't know) but he doesn't sound well human never mind competent.

*unfortunately for Ed his interesting things remain in the position papers he wrote ages ago and never really get promoted now he's actually in charge of policy.
 
Mar 30, 2012
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It's factored into the current modelling.

It won't really be all that decisive because hell would freeze over before the SNP do a deal with the Tories so those MP's will count against the Tories if not for Labour. Labours performance may stop them getting a majority or even being the biggest party but the SNP would agree confidence and supply with them if push came to shove. Which will in turn cause major ructions at Westminster when our 2nd class MP's actually have some power.

I actually doubt the SNP will get more than 20-25 seats at a push (which would be an epic victory if you look at the majorities they'd have to overturn to get there) but they may have the balance of power.

Eh? They're not second class
yet
 

Jezbollah

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Jun 14, 2010
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I'm not saying if they had a strong leader, I'm saying if they had a semi competent one. Ed Milliband is by all accounts a relatively bright guy who has had in the past* some relatively interesting things to say on a few issues, but as a leader of a political party he completely fails the retail test which largely is the most important facet as UK politics get more and more presidential.

Labour could have a leader with a backbone made out of soggy cardboard struggling to straddle the divides between all various factions in the Labour party without so much as clue in terms of policy and they'd still win if that same leader could simply sound like someone people could relate with while sounding like he had a semblance of a clue. Ed doesn't.

For the opposition it's not so much what their policies are (as long as their not too out there, although the rise of UKIP makes me doubt even that now) but how the differentiate themselves from the incumbents. Oppositions don't get voted in, Governments get voted out, all the opposition has to do is not be too dickish and sound competent. Milliband may not be a dick (I don't know) but he doesn't sound well human never mind competent.

*unfortunately for Ed his interesting things remain in the position papers he wrote ages ago and never really get promoted now he's actually in charge of policy.

I think thats spot on, Kmag.
 

Nicktendo86

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Mar 24, 2009
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Considering the polls have been reasonably close for a good few months now I think we will get a close hung parliament in labours favour, especially if the tories don't turn up for the TV debates. It's a pretty good certainty that it will be either a lab/lid alliance or a Labour/SNP one.
Oh and you should all watch the documentary that was on BBC2 last night about the houses of parliament. Very interesting.
Polls are usually skewed due to the shy Tory phenomenon and sitting governments usually go up in polls closer to an election.

There is no chance of labour being the largest party. None. How the hell are labour supposed to form a coalition with a party who campaigns to break up the UK? They would kill of the remaining support they have in England.

Lab/Dem coalition is a maybe I suppose but I still think the Tories will be the largest party and will be given the first stab of a minority government before we have another election in October.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
The Conservatives will always get first stab at forming a government regardless of the result of the next election as they are the current sitting government. To remain government, they just have to retain confidence of the house. Theoretically, they could have less seats than Labour and still do so, provided Labour can't get enough people for a hypothetical VoNC. As for the polls not getting the Conservatives accurately, that's what prediction models attempt to take into account - they're separate from polls, polls are merely one input among many.

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

The above is quite a good resource, it collates their own prediction with a comparison to the other major predictors, the bookies favourites, and ElectoralCalculus which tells what you the election would be were it happen tomorrow (i.e., is not really predictive), allowing you to compare what predicted path to current situation.
 

WayneMorse

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Oct 2, 2013
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Talking about his home life, Cameron also talked about the time he had to take his son to A&E after he stood on a wasps nest and was stung 60 times, revealed that he has got fed up listening to songs from Frozen, declared himself a big Game of Thrones fan and credited Rupert Harrison, George Osborne’s chief of staff, with coming up with the joke he used at PMQs yesterday about “Bill Somebody” being Labour’s economic plan.

More human than human!

How does Dave manage to be more like a real person than Ed? There's a surrealness with Miliband where you can't believe he's an actual person with thoughts and feelings and a childhood sometimes. Dave seems real but it sounds like he's hiding his more toff side behind things that the plebs would identify with.
 

Sir_Crocodile

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Mar 31, 2009
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More human than human!

How does Dave manage to be more like a real person than Ed? There's a surrealness with Miliband where you can't believe he's an actual person with thoughts and feelings and a childhood sometimes. Dave seems real but it sounds like he's hiding his more toff side behind things that the plebs would identify with.

Maybe ed is a robot built in the future by the tories and sent back in time to stop labour from winning the election

I think dave learnt his lesson when he told people that he made his own bread
 

WayneMorse

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Oct 2, 2013
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http://londonist.com/2015/02/welfare-reforms-drive-increase-in-homelessness.php

The Homelessness Monitor report also says the bedroom tax has contributed to an 18% rise in social housing repossessions. If tenants in social housing can’t afford the rent there, it’s a pretty safe bet they wouldn’t be able to afford a private rental. Oh, and that’s assuming they could even find one — a Shelter report in June 2014 identified just 86 affordable homes in the whole of London.
 

spunodi

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Aug 16, 2010
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Ed Milliband in 'says good things' shocker:

The question we have been addressing this week is who is this country going to be run for. Is it going to be run for everyone under fair rules which apply to everybody, or is it going to be a case of one set of rules for one set of people and another set of rules for another?

Article

The first good tghing I've heard from Labour. Not sure if it's entirely effectual but it's almost as if they are taking a principled stand.

Still, Greens FTW.
 

Nicktendo86

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Mar 24, 2009
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Not the best of days for labour today. Tristan Hunt slagged off nuns last night, their Rotherham mp tweeted it was hilarious that Farage was strong armed out by a load of socialist nutters and proceeded to delete her tweet and the official labour twitter account tweeted that it is 9 months until the election.

Oh and Margaret Hodge slagged of members of the front bench for taking on staff from PWC before being reminded that her company also does and she still takes a pension from them from her time working for them.
 

kitch9

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Jan 23, 2007
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Not the best of days for labour today. Tristan Hunt slagged off nuns last night, their Rotherham mp tweeted it was hilarious that Farage was strong armed out by a load of socialist nutters and proceeded to delete her tweet and the official labour twitter account tweeted that it is 9 months until the election.

Oh and Margaret Hodge slagged of members of the front bench for taking on staff from PWC before being reminded that her company also does and she still takes a pension from them from her time working for them.

That is because the current labour bunch are total blathering idiots who lead by a complete pair of twats in the two Nob "Eds."
 

fizzelopeguss

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Nov 1, 2007
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their Rotherham mp tweeted it was hilarious that Farage was strong armed out by a load of socialist nutters and proceeded to delete her tweet and the official labour twitter account tweeted that it is 9 months until the election.

It's perverse. Strange how when farage rolls in to town he's immediately set upon by fascist union goons and common purpose graduates, while the politicized police force not worthy of the name looks the other way. It's like something out of the hills have eyes or the wicker man.

Want know how 1400 girls were gang raped and nothing was done about it over all those years? Just look past pint-in-hand-mans involvement and see how cliquey this whole incident looks.
 

tomtom94

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Howard Shore has donated £499,330 to the Conservatives and has publicly argued for the UK’s withdrawal from Europe, as well as the slashing of red tape. He has also been an outspoken critic of the 50p tax rate.

There's a certain hilarity in donating money to the government in order to make sure you'll have to pay less money to the government.

Also, a lovely bit of juxtaposition by the Guardian here:

Last year, ministers quietly slipped through an unprecedented rise in the amount that parties can spend on the general election. Cameron has ignored Electoral Commission recommendations to secure a 23% rise in allowed spending.

A Tory spokesman said: “All donations to the Conservative party are properly and transparently declared to the Electoral Commission, published by them, and comply fully with Electoral Commission rules.”
 

anonymous_abc

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There's a certain hilarity in donating money to the government in order to make sure you'll have to pay less money to the government.

Well if he is readily willing to pay half a million in donations, just imagine how much he is hoping to save with such legislation (in the long run)
 

kitch9

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Jan 23, 2007
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There's a certain hilarity in donating money to the government in order to make sure you'll have to pay less money to the government.

Also, a lovely bit of juxtaposition by the Guardian here:

The higher you tax thing the more people avoid thing to avoid paying tax on thing.
 

Uzzy

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Mar 2, 2014
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First Past the Post is Hung-Over

I caught some of the Daily Politics earlier, and they had Prof John Curtice on talking about how First Past the Post is no longer doing the thing's it's meant to do, namely guarantee a winner between two major parties. He also mentioned that we'll probably see UKIP get double the vote of the SNP nationwide, but UKIP will probably get 3 seats compared to the SNP's 50+. Which is crazy. There's a link to the study the Electoral Reform Society did, the Election Lottery, here.

If that situation doesn't see some real discussion on electoral reform post election, I don't know what will.
 
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Jesus Christ



Gonna have to start another #cameronout campaign
I think that has more to do with the public's perception of Miliband as an individual rather than Labour's policies.

Also: The choice of parties is a lot less appealing in England than it is in Scotland. At least there they've got the SNP. Down here we've got unappealing dickhead politicians and political parties as far as the eye can see.

The only way I'd go for Labour is if their first order of business was to get rid of Miliband.
 

anonymous_abc

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Sep 26, 2011
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Getting started on the thread now, when do guys want me to post it? March? April?

I think I posted the EU elections OT a little over a month before the election. But whatever, it probably doesn't make much of a difference. Give it to us now and we can start it up there. It's not as if there was no election news to talk about.
 

Volotaire

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Oct 23, 2012
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I think I posted the EU elections OT a little over a month before the election. But whatever, it probably doesn't make much of a difference. Give it to us now and we can start it up there. It's not as if there was no election news to talk about.

Oh I definitely won't have it ready in the next week or so.

The day that parliament's dissolved, I'd say. So March 30th.
This is a solid idea. It is also in time for the proposed date of the first election debate on April 2nd.
 

WayneMorse

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Oct 2, 2013
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Maybe you'll be invited to the two Eds next one now they've pissed off all their own big fund raisers.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/sirajdatoo/conservatives-black-and-white-fundraiser-feb-2015

Well the gala happened, and it looked like they shamelessly auctioned off dates with the cabinet ministers.





Supporters at the event included Subaskaran Allirajah, the founder of Lycamobile, which had two tables at the event, Pimlico Plumbers founder Charlie Mullins, and hedge fund manager Stanley Fink. Lapdancing kingpin Peter Stringfellow was also there.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
As far as OTs go, I like |OT| Taste the Rainbow. I'd also float my own |OT| Multiparty 'til We Drop.