Ukraine/Russia conflict NEWS thread - Updates on the Ukrainian crisis.

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Aug 17, 2012
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Train tracks are fixed in place. It wouldn't be difficult for a single fighter jet or bomber to make said rail lines useless.
Won't happen, as that would be used as an argument by Putin. And that's the fucked up part of this conflict. If the seperatists are pushin forward, it's ok, but if Ukraine would launch an offensive to reclaim a city it would be a green-light situation for Putin to roll in with the core of Russia's army. Whatever they do, they loose.
 
May 12, 2010
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On top of that Russia has brought in some of its most advanced AA platforms. Its newest short to medum range AA platform is in the area. This stuff is so new that Russia only has a few dozen of them yet somehow "rebels got them".
 
Mar 28, 2014
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How does that make any sense? You think Russia doesn't have incentives to avoid war?

What's your solution? Just leave things as they are while Russia acts out it's blatant annexation of Ukrainian territory?

The truth is that Russia is not the Soviet Union and there is no reason to be so scared. Look at figures like GDP, population size, military tech, military budget, recent experience of troops etc vs the big 3 or 4 in EU. We're acting like a bunch of herbivores scared of a single predator.
No obviously that wouldn't work as Putin is currently on his imperial Russia high horse. But blindly agitating Russia won't help either. The best scenario would be for western Ukraine to enter a defense pact with the rest of western Europe and keep the ceasefire borders intact. Further economic sanctions would be a step in the wrong direction, especially since western Europe has large stakes in Russia.
 
Aug 20, 2014
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No obviously that wouldn't work as Putin is currently on his imperial Russia high horse. But blindly agitating Russia won't help either. The best scenario would be for western Ukraine to enter a defense pact with the rest of western Europe and keep the ceasefire borders intact. Further economic sanctions would be a step in the wrong direction, especially since western Europe has large stakes in Russia.
But since western Europe has large stakes in Russia, as well as quite a few Quislings among the politicians and leading companies, they will not enter a defensive pact with western Ukraine.
 
With the Ukrainan withdrawl from Debaltseve, I wonder if the rebels will be satisfied. I think they'll probably want to appear to be complying with Minsk-2 for a bit to take some of the heat off. eg. https://meduza.io/news/2015/02/18/dnr-ob-yavila-o-nachale-otvoda-tyazhelyh-vooruzheniy

But will they really stop there? They have a few more long term targets. Such as:


  • Push north along the Russian border to open up more convenient road routes into Russia.
  • Try and take back Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
  • Push west through Mariupol to form the land bridge with Crimea.
With the current tactics, any of those will take months and would totally wreck any towns along the way.
 
Sep 14, 2005
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glaurung.planet.ee
With the Ukrainan withdrawl from Debaltseve, I wonder if the rebels will be satisfied.
It has been said time and again that New Russia wants to capture the entirety of Ukraine, all the way up to Kiev.

Since we know now that Putin has - for the lack of a better expression - spat on the ceasefire and DMZ agreement, I do not think that Kiev is an impossibility. The rebels are supplied with superior fire power. They have an almost inexhaustible flow of Russian fighters coming across the border all the time.

As long as Ukraine does not get similar reinforcements from the West, they are doomed to a slow retreat across their homeland. Cities will burn and thousands more will die in the process.
 
With the Ukrainan withdrawl from Debaltseve, I wonder if the rebels will be satisfied. I think they'll probably want to appear to be complying with Minsk-2 for a bit to take some of the heat off. eg. https://meduza.io/news/2015/02/18/dnr-ob-yavila-o-nachale-otvoda-tyazhelyh-vooruzheniy

But will they really stop there? They have a few more long term targets. Such as:


  • Push north along the Russian border to open up more convenient road routes into Russia.
  • Try and take back Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
  • Push west through Mariupol to form the land bridge with Crimea.
With the current tactics, any of those will take months and would totally wreck any towns along the way.
Debaltseve was claimed to be within rebels territory on the date of Minsk-2. Ukrainian forces were surrounded and refused to surrender. So, technically taking Debaltseve was not pushing the line of confrontation further but a cleaning up on already taken territory. At least, it is the rebels who says so. Ukrainian TV says there were never any surrounded forces in Debaltseve. I do not know who is more right (or less bullshiting), rebels or Ukrainians.

Taking Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, pushing line of confrontation is a too apparent violation of Minsk-2. So, Mariupol is the only thing left which can be claimed to be surrounded before the date of Minsk-2, but, I do not think that rebels have enough force to take it without turning it into what Donetsk airport is today.
 
May 12, 2010
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We have a general idea of the minimum land area the "rebels" want and its a lot larger than what they have. They have threatened they intend to push to Kharkiv etc.

The "Official" border of the planned Novorossiya is all the blue you see on this map minus crimea
 
Aug 17, 2012
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We have a general idea of the minimum land area the "rebels" want and its a lot larger than what they have. They have threatened they intend to push to Kharkiv etc.

The "Official" border of the planned Novorossiya is all the blue you see on this map minus crimea
If they ever achieve that, then Ukraine would change into a third world country. Devastated by war, lost almos 40% of it's territory, cut off from the sea, no heavy industry (which is mainly in the east), no natural resources.
 
May 12, 2010
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blah chan trolls

If they ever achieve that, then Ukraine would change into a third world country. Devastated by war, lost almos 40% of it's territory, cut off from the sea, no heavy industry (which is mainly in the east), no natural resources.
Thats the perfect Ukraine for Russia. Totally impotent with no real ability to recover. EU would never want it and Russia would eventually absorb it.
 
May 15, 2013
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On one hand, I'm happy Poland is in NATO, and as such should be protected if/when Ukraine/Belarus are wholly annexed back into Russia and Putin wants to reach further into West.
On the other, given the world's response to Ukraine situation, I'm not sure how much safety any security treaty gives us. :\
 
Jun 7, 2011
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Shameful and disgusting to see Russia table a UN resolution calling for the Minsk accord to be implemented and all sides to abide by the ceasefire while it's forces (cowardly unmarked) continue to attack and push further west, grabbing more land while using the pretext of a "ceasefire" to warn the other side not to respond.

Anyone defending this kind of shit should be ashamed of themselves.
 
On one hand, I'm happy Poland is in NATO, and as such should be protected if/when Ukraine/Belarus are wholly annexed back into Russia and Putin wants to reach further into West.
On the other, given the world's response to Ukraine situation, I'm not sure how much safety any security treaty gives us. :\
You are too frightened by propaganda. Russia will not annex territory which she hadn't given away for free previously.
 
Feb 10, 2006
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You are too frighted by propaganda. Russia will not annex territory which she hadn't given away for free previously.
Supposing that is accurate, what does Russia consider territory it has given away? Just Crimea? Everything that was once part of the Soviet Union? Everything that was once part of the Russian Empire?
 
Dec 30, 2013
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Slightly offtopic, but somewhat related: i find it pretty funny/interesting to see how the views changed in a year here on GAF. When this whole shit went down, starting with Crimea users from eastern europe were (rightfully) affraid and knew that Putins apetite couldn't be stopped with sanctions, yet most of the posters were sure that sanctions would work their way and that a military intervention or help to arm Ukraine would be bad because it would agitate Putin.

Now fast forward to today and what do we see? Sanctions didn't do jack shit, Putin has propably more heavy weaponry in Ukraine/at it's borders than most of european countries, the rebels are hitting even harder and he doesn't care about international peace agreements.

And just about now most of the users on GAF changed their point of view and see that there is no political way to stop Putin and you all start talking about the possibilities of arming/aiding Ukraine, how Germany and France sold them for "peace". It's weird, to say the least.
It's similar with nations of the EU and NATO as well. Countries that experiences first hand the brutality of Russian occupation are the ones sounding the warning the loudest on Putin but Western European countries wring their hands and insist they can work with Russia, that limited sanctions will force the Kremlin to back down. It won't, Putin won't be happy until he gets his land route to Crimea.

We need to heed the warnings of central and eastern European countries who know what Russia is really like and push to one side defeatist appeasniks in Berlin and Paris who pretend we're all best pals. We're not, Russia will always be the West's enemy.
 
Dec 30, 2013
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Sorry for double post, but fresh info from Debaltseve.

http://niezalezna.pl/64312-wojsko-ukrainskie-wycofuje-sie-z-debalcewe-miasto-padlo-setki-zabitych

City is lost, convoy of Ukraine military personel and heavy weaponry retreats from the ciy, witnesses claim hundreds are dead.

So now the seperatists control a vital and important transportation city. Thanks to the rail system they have now unlimited possibilities to send people and equipment between Donbas and Luhansk.

IMO these territories are lost.

EDIT: Ukraine changes the expression from "retreat" to "regrouping". But i'm sure everyone knows what that means.
The Ukrainian army are believed to have destroyed the rail junction in Debaltseve.
 
Apr 6, 2009
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Germany wasn't russian territory for almost 200 years before Soviets gave it away. It was a temporary occupation of the defeated aggressor.
Let's not go there. Ukraine and it's territory are that of Ukraine. Russia has no right to claim any of it. No matter if it was part of Russia 50, 100 or 200 years. It doesn't matter. Please don't even consider defending that point of view.
 
Aug 17, 2012
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Germany wasn't russian territory for almost 200 years before Soviets gave it away. It was a temporary occupation of the defeated aggressor.
So by your logic should Poland be affraid or not? After the Partisions of Poland we were for about 123 years part of three empires, one of them Russia. Not only that, but we were betrayed and butchered during and after the second World War - lost our eastern territories and became a part of the Eastern Block.

So should we be regarded as a part of the "Russian Empire", or not?

The Ukrainian army are believed to have destroyed the rail junction in Debaltseve.
Temporary solution. It will take some time to restore the junction, but in the end it is now in the hands of the seperatists.
 
Apr 6, 2009
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So by your logic should Poland be affraid or not? After the Partisions of Poland we were for about 123 years part of three empires, one of them Russia. Not only that, but we were betrayed and butchered during and after the second World War - lost our eastern territories and became a part of the Eastern Block.

So should we be regarded as a part of the "Russian Empire", or not?
If anything, if we follow that logic, Russia is about to lose some land. Lithuania going to grow in size ten times and claim the entire area.
 
So by your logic should Poland be affraid or not? After the Partisions of Poland we were for about 123 years part of three empires, one of them Russia. Not only that, but we were betrayed and butchered during and after the second World War - lost our eastern territories and became a part of the Eastern Block.

So should we be regarded as a part of the "Russian Empire", or not?
I guess not, at least coz there in Poland 93.52% are Polish people. Russians are not even listed as a ethnic group.

This is such a creepy and shitty sentiment. Kazahkstan, you are next!
Next for Obama's brokering a power transition, you mean?
 
Nov 13, 2013
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If anything, if we follow that logic, Russia is about to lose some land. Lithuania going to grow in size ten times and claim the entire area.
Beware the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth!



And speaking of reclaiming what is rightfully yours: in the name of the Swedish Emprire, I demand the return of Finland and Norway! The Swedish minority in Finland have been oppressed for too long and those lusekofta-wearing bastards in the west are growing fat on rightful Swedish oil! Also, Ingria (the so called "St. Petersburg") and Courland!

Framåt karoliner! Dominium Maris Baltici!
 
Feb 2, 2013
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So was Debaltsevo actually encircled and the Ukrainians are breaking out of the pocket or did they still have some strip of land connecting to it and are now withdrawing through it ? I'm getting conflicted info form the news portals.

They should have pulled Kharkov 42 and tried to hack off one of the pincers. /armchair general
 
Feb 10, 2006
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I guess not, at least coz there in Poland 93.52% are Polish people. Russians are not even listed as a ethnic group.
So you do believe the Baltic states should be reconquered for instance? Also more than 60,000 Russians in Finland, should they be reconquered? Close to 10% Russians in Moldova, guess they'll need to be reconquered too? I suppose Lukashenko might as well start packing his bags as well as his country too should become part of this new Russian empire you're justifying.
 
Jun 22, 2011
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You are too frightened by propaganda. Russia will not annex territory which she hadn't given away for free previously.
Ukraine and Belarus had tried to seperate from Russia before the revolution and the compromise was with their own state within the Union.
We don't live in an imperialist world any longer where bigger countries fight over land. We try not to at the very least.
 
Apr 6, 2009
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I said that Russia WILL NOT GRAB ANYTHING after Crimea, because Crimea was a unique place in russian history. Stop making up silly reasons for russia to conquer half of the world.
You did not answer my question. Do you or not?

And Russia is making up silly reasons to conquer. Keep that in mind. They are the aggressor in this war. Lots of neighboring countries have 'unique places' in other countries histories. It is no reason to re-conquer them. Otherwise we might as well give half of Europe back to Italy and make a new Roman Empire.

Also, if they do not grab anything after Crimea, what is going on in Eastern Ukraine right now then? Or do you still deny Russian involvement there?
 
Feb 10, 2006
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I said that Russia WILL NOT GRAB ANYTHING after Crimea, because Crimea was a unique place in russian history. Stop making up silly reasons for russia to conquer half of the world.
Why is Crimea unique? It's one of countless territories that Russia conquered at one point or another and partially Russified.
 
Nov 13, 2013
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So was Debaltsevo actually encircled and the Ukrainians are breaking out of the pocket or did they still have some strip of land connecting to it and are now withdrawing through it ? I'm getting conflicted info form the news portals.

They should have pulled Kharkov 42 and tried to hack off one of the pincers. /armchair general
Unclear. Separatists claim it was completely surrounded, the UAF claims it wasn't. What appears to be completely clear in any case is that the only major road in the area, the M03, was turned into a killing zone by separatist artillery and mines. There might have been some room for the trapped UAF units to maneuver in a break-out attempt but not a lot. Certainly no safe corridors. Casualties will probably be high and it's unlikely that they'll get any larger equipment through.

Pulling a Kharkov 42 might have been an option if the UAF units had the mobility and firepower to do it but it doesn't appear that they have. Not that Kharkov 42 was overwhelmingly successful in the first place.
 
I said that Russia WILL NOT GRAB ANYTHING after Crimea, because Crimea was a unique place in russian history. Stop making up silly reasons for russia to conquer half of the world.
I'm going to remember this quote for after Putin signs The Treaty on Accession of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic to the Russia Federation
 
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