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Using statistics by "professionals" democrat voters have already cast 70% of the TOTAL ballots cast for Clinton in 2016. #FrontVoted

Aug 24, 2016
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The biased statistics spinning early voter numbers as Trumps doom, have actually made it clear how dire the situation is for the DNC.

In 2016 133 million votes were cast and the analysts have stated that we have already past half of the total votes cast in 2016 in early voting, they are correct as by Monday at around 11:59pm, early voting totals will likely surpass 90 million or fall just before it.

Due to heavy bias against the president, many of these analysts from all over the country have admitted that the majority of these 90 million ballots were cast by Democrats. This means that we can use a percentage as low as 51% to get the minimum amount of ballots cast by Democrats out of the 90 million. Once you do the math, you get an estimate of 46 million votes.

Hillary Clinton received 65 million votes TOTAL in 2016
, so 46 million already brings us to 70% of the all the ballots cast for Clinton in 2016. This means that in the 2020 election Democrat ballots are severely front-loaded beyond anything reasonable. Whether it's because of campaign or media pressure, or whether it's due to fears of COVID, whatever the reason, we are looking at the most frontloaded election on the DNC side of the election in history.

This tells me without a doubt, that Biden voter turn out on Election Day will be incredibly minimal. To add insult to injury many of these 46 million votes (minimum) are NOT IN COMPETITIVE STATES. Which is a major problem for the DNC since Trump has been campaigning almost exclusively in purple states needed to win the election.

To add insult to injury I am only using the lowest percentage possible, 51%. It is much more likely that out of 90 million early ballots that the Democrats make up more than just 51% of the ballots cast, but if we already get 70% of Clintons votes from 2016 ONLY using 51%, than how much worse will it be with the real percentage, which will clearly be higher?

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump were to have a bigger Electoral College lead with Biden than with Clinton.
 

CloudNull

Banned
Oct 14, 2019
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Welcome back.

Great analysis and all the current data is showing this will be a win for Trump. The only thing pointing to it not is the polls which currently are closing.

I cannot wait for Election Day to have come and gone. I really hope the gap is so big that no randomly found ballots can close it.
 
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jason10mm

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Feb 3, 2009
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How accurate are these numbers? How do they have any idea how many ballots have been returned or how they voted? It's all guesswork.

I think either party can win easily if they motivate every possible registered party voter to actually vote. Only 60% of eligible voters actually voted in 2016, right? So there is a HUGE untapped pool for either candidate even if everything stays like it did in 2016.

But go trump :p
 

oagboghi2

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Apr 15, 2018
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There is one other possibility to play devil's advocate. That the democrat numbers has swelled, and dem turnout could be as much as 50% higher than 2016. Early voting this high could be a sign of another "blue wave".

The reason why I don't buy this is democrat registration hasnt showed this. The republicans have been fairly competitive compared to dems in registering voters, and the democrats have very little ground game this year because of covid.

They can't outreach at liberal churches, they are closed. They can't outreach on college campuses. Those are closed. Biden campaign has relied on using flyers, ad campaigns and events to drive people to embrace mail in and early voting to give people as much room as possible to vote because they can't ground game, while Trump has doubled down on the traditional ground game methods.

There is a logic to Biden's plan, but I think the Biden camp are running into a potential pitfall they created. It doesn't seem as if they necessarily got new people to vote. They just convinced regular democrats to vote earlier. And now they are in this weird position of ramping up events ala Trump hoping to reach people they would have normally gotten at earlier campaigning events.

people denigrate the Trump rallies and say they are only done to placate his ego, but in reality they are really core to the Trump operation. Trump won in 2016 because his ground game was better than Hillary's, and if he wins 2020 it will be, because again he got more people to go rallies, events, whatever to register.
 

jason10mm

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Feb 3, 2009
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The plane based airport rally is DEFINITELY going to be a prime technique in the future. How much could that cost? Seems like both candidates raise well into the hundreds of millions, so it should be affordable, even if Trump right now is using tax payer money to do this (I think??? maybe not, I"m sure he would be crucified if he was).

Of course I don't think any candidate has ever pulled the numbers trump is on the regular that would justify a plane versus a bus.
 

Thickandblack

Banned
Mar 23, 2018
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The plane based airport rally is DEFINITELY going to be a prime technique in the future. How much could that cost? Seems like both candidates raise well into the hundreds of millions, so it should be affordable, even if Trump right now is using tax payer money to do this (I think??? maybe not, I"m sure he would be crucified if he was).

Of course I don't think any candidate has ever pulled the numbers trump is on the regular that would justify a plane versus a bus.
I think it Is his own money and plane
 
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