• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
  • Hey Guest. Check out the NeoGAF 2.2 Update Thread for details on our new Giphy integration and other new features.

Opinion We probably won't see any newcomer to the video game hardware market compete with PlayStation, Xbox, Nintendo

May 8, 2016
1,641
1,073
620
I get your points OP, still would be cool to see a new competitor step up to the mantle and produce something new in the console space. But as you said, it's likely not to happen in the way you described in the OP. The future of gaming is scattered about it seems, between things like VR and streaming.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VysePSU

Fat Frog

Member
Mar 21, 2019
772
740
325
Tencent or Genda (Segas new owners) are possibilities IMO
Tencent wouldn't be interested but, yeah, clearly they have chances. Chinese gov would lock the console market just for them or over tax Jap and US rivals... They would sell hundreds of millions consoles in China.(worldwide sales would be icing on the cake)

On top of that, they are twice or 3 times bigger than EA with tons of studios...
 

Alebrije

Member
Feb 25, 2010
9,983
1,957
1,125
Think the industry is fine with 3 as long as Nintendo is always a hardware manufacturer.

But Samsung, Apple, Disney have the resources to get in...
 
Dec 2, 2018
627
1,307
410
The people insisting that mobile/streaming are the future need to grapple with the physical reality that:

1. Home consoles will always outperform mobile devices (and TVs etc) and
2. Home consoles will always outperform streaming

This means that mobile/streaming have to compete on price, which obviously isn't good for profits and isn't necessarily appealing for a dedicated hobbyist device. There'll always be a very large sector of the market that has enough disposable income to drop on a home console, particularly in developed countries. People treat mobile games as timewasters for when you're stuck in line or taking a shit at work, by and large, not as something to spend an evening of your free time playing.
 
Last edited:

Fat Frog

Member
Mar 21, 2019
772
740
325
The people insisting that mobile/streaming are the future need to grapple with the physical reality that:

1. Home consoles will always outperform mobile devices and
2. Home consoles will always outperform streaming

This means that mobile/streaming have to compete on price, which obviously isn't good for profits and isn't necessarily appealing for a dedicated hobbyist device. There'll always be a very large sector of the market that has enough disposable income to drop on a home console, particularly in developed countries. People treat mobile games as timewasters for when you're stuck in line or taking a shit at work, by and large, not as something to spend an evening of your free time playing.
Well, i don't know.

Mobile and Streaming are not the same thing at all.

Last time there was direct datas from mobiles and handhelds, Vita and 3DS were crushed by mobile games. It was 5 years ago.

Do you have recent datas for mobile gaming ?
Apple seems pretty high (i think they count hardware sales for Sony since i doubt they were above nintendo for game units)

Maybe consoles are pretty high in 2020 due to the pandemic but it's clear mobile gaming is here to stay and will remain pretty huge especially in Asia, Japan...(consoles are Nintendo only in japan)
 
Last edited:

DGrayson

Mod Team and Bat Team
Staff Member
Dec 5, 2017
2,087
5,903
645
We're not far from the end of the hardware market anyways, I say 15 years till all is streaming services.. when we get there, maybe we will have more companies entering the business

Maybe for consoles but they will have to pry my gaming pc with games loaded on the hard drive and wireless 360 controller out of my cold dead hands.
 
  • Strength
  • Like
Reactions: Ian Henry and Fuz

BaneIsPain

Member
Sep 1, 2019
1,337
1,831
450
Malay Land
*Soulja Boy enter competition*
bill hader snl GIF by Saturday Night Live
 
Dec 2, 2018
627
1,307
410
Well, i don't know.

Mobile and Streaming are not the same thing at all.

Last time there was direct datas from mobiles and handhelds, Vita and 3DS were crushed by mobile games. It was 5 years ago.

Do you have recent datas for mobile gaming ?
Apple seems pretty high (i think they count hardware sales for Sony since i doubt they were above nintendo for game units)

Maybe consoles are pretty high in 2020 due to the pandemic but it's clear mobile gaming is here to stay and will remain pretty huge especially in Asia, Japan...(consoles are Nintendo only in japan)
Mobile gaming doesn't compete with home consoles, it's a totally separate sector of the market. It does compete with handhelds, and mobile definitely won that fight (though the Switch is holding its own as a handheld in certain markets, notably Japan). But there is no evidence whatsoever that home console sales are being lost to mobile. These are two different products that serve different market niches - it's like comparing novels and comics because they're both "books."
 

Fat Frog

Member
Mar 21, 2019
772
740
325
We're not far from the end of the hardware market anyways, I say 15 years till all is streaming services.. when we get there, maybe we will have more companies entering the business
15 years ??? No, in 15 years, gamers will stop laughing at cloud gaming because it will be easy, fast, reactive with tons of games... But millions of gamers will keep their consoles and PC as main weapon.

In 15 years, cloud gaming will be very popular and accepted though.
 

Fat Frog

Member
Mar 21, 2019
772
740
325
Mobile gaming doesn't compete with home consoles, it's a totally separate sector of the market. It does compete with handhelds, and mobile definitely won that fight (though the Switch is holding its own as a handheld in certain markets, notably Japan). But there is no evidence whatsoever that home console sales are being lost to mobile. These are two different products that serve different market niches - it's like comparing novels and comics because they're both "books."
I know but i thought you were the one comparing those two markets. My bad.
 

JLB

Member
Dec 6, 2018
2,511
3,419
465
We're not far from the end of the hardware market anyways, I say 15 years till all is streaming services.. when we get there, maybe we will have more companies entering the business

Exactly this. Though 15 years is a lot, it will happen in 5/8 the most.
 

Entroyp

Member
Jul 28, 2017
3,724
9,914
510
I’m hoping for Sega to create the Dreamcast II and pushes MS to become a third party developer. You know, payback for what they did to Sega.

Most probably ain’t going to happen :(
 
  • Strength
Reactions: Azelover

DeuceGamer

Member
Mar 12, 2012
4,335
16
680
We saw how quickly even a huge company like Google gave before they started scaling back. The reason Microsoft was able to get a foothold in the market was part timing, but also the willingness and understanding that they were going to lose millions over several years before they even had a chance to gain a foothold and be profitable.

I think the only company that may be able to legitimately come into the marketplace and make an impact is Apple. They would obviously have to take it much more serious than they ever have and focus on core gamers but they have the infrastructure, money, knowledge of technology and chip builders to do so, if they chose to. The thing is, I think they are happy just dominating with the App Store and don’t seem to want to enter the high end gaming market.
 

DESTROYA

Member
Jan 1, 2011
9,967
15,214
1,190
USA
  • Like
Reactions: nikolino840
Dec 2, 2018
627
1,307
410
... *ahem*... room for new handhelds?.. maybe?
Absolutely room for a new handheld, but it would have to be a PS4 Portable with 1) access to the whole library and 2) video out. No other player is going to be able to offer a value proposition comparable to the Switch Lite, especially not with the Pro model launching in a year or two.
 

Meesh

Member
Jan 6, 2007
5,512
444
1,365
43
Canada
Absolutely room for a new handheld, but it would have to be a PS4 Portable with 1) access to the whole library and 2) video out. No other player is going to be able to offer a value proposition comparable to the Switch Lite, especially not with the Pro model launching in a year or two.
It's just that, I know it's maybe weird but the more I play the Switch in portable mode, the more I want a new PSP.

And lately I can't get it outta my head they're working on it.

Edit: sorry about derailing the thread.
 
Last edited:

e&e

Member
Nov 17, 2020
695
684
435
No more please. Stadia and Amazon’s streaming should be supplemental though if you want that.
 
Dec 2, 2018
627
1,307
410
It's just that, I know it's maybe weird but the more I play the Switch in portable mode, the more I want a new PSP.

And lately I can't get it outta my head they're working on it.

Edit: sorry about derailing the thread.
I picked up a Vita to play old JRPGs on a couple weeks ago and it is the single most perfect piece of tech I've ever used from a hardware standpoint. It's amazing how good Sony can do industrial design when they put their minds to it, and a real shame they bungled that system so hard.
 

Harry Tung

Member
Jun 1, 2018
4,000
8,258
515
Sweden
After Googles failure I don't want any other companies trying their hand at video games. Most of them seem so fucking dishonest, and you can clearly tell whether they give a shit or are only in it for quick money. They have no clue about the industry, and try to flex their worthless subscription and streaming services and expect us to follow suit. The big three is all that matters to me and the only ones I would even look at when it comes to games.
 

Sejan

Member
Sep 28, 2018
789
959
490
Now is the time that we are most likely to see a new big player in the gaming market. There will be a major game streaming service in the next few years and it’s still up in the air who it might end up being. MS and Sony are trying to prepare for it, but it could just as well be anyone at this point. This is by far the most likely entry point for a major player in the gaming market. A big push for game streaming services could just as well knock one of the major players out, too.
 

FStubbs

Member
Aug 29, 2010
4,677
901
895
Tencent is probably the one company that is in position to potentially launch a console that would compete right away, but their strategy right now is the opposite - to destroy walled gardens. EGS exists to destroy Steam and they're suing to destroy the Apple App Store.
 

ToTTenTranz

Member
Feb 4, 2021
151
333
230
There was a time when I thought it would be cool to see another competitor enter the video game hardware market and compete with Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo. The ones that always came to mind was Samsung or a big publisher like Electronic Arts, Bandai Namco etc. But this seems impossible because in order to compete with the big three, you pretty much need to wow the hardcore gamer with impressive graphics, an impressive first-party lineup, and a lower price (if not a similar price with more compelling features and content). And as much as it would be interesting to see what a brand new platform from a different company would look like, whether or not the graphics would be any better than what we're currently seeing, what first-party games would be on display to wow gamers, it still means a huge investment that probably wouldn't really change the face of the video game hardware market dominated by the big three.

"What if one of them exits the hardware market?" I don't actually think that will happen. Nintendo have been around the block the longest and, with the exception of the Wii U, they continue to successfully market and sell their consoles like hot cakes. PlayStation consoles have also been very successful for Sony that they were able to take a serious venture into VR gaming alongside the PS4 and PS5. We've even seen some of their notable exclusives make their way to Steam such as Horizon: Zero Dawn and Death Stranding long after releasing on the PS4, making them even more money and creating more fans. And although Xbox is relatively new, compared to Nintendo and PlayStation, Microsoft have been acquiring/creating studios to what I believe will ultimately bolster their first-party lineup and they also offer a cheaper, easy way to play through their GamePass service. Also, the Xbox Series X was reportedly their biggest launch ever so definitely the Xbox brand is doing well, as is PlayStation and Nintendo. The current gaming landscape carved out by the big three is interesting enough. They all just need to bring back some older great exclusives or develop spiritual successors to them to sweeten the deal. But I don't see any of them in danger of losing, let alone being threatened by a newcomer. They're just too big.
You're right that we probably won't see Sega launching another console ever again, or e.g. Atari with an actual competitor.
Apple could decide to enter the market, though I seriously doubt they'd ever be willing to compete with Sony and Microsoft on subsidized hardware to profit solely on the software.
They keep their huge market valuation thanks to the massive margins and average selling price on all their products.

However, I think the PC is slowly approaching a state where it competes better with consoles than it usually did.

With higher performance APUs becoming more standard on the PC space, we're slowly getting to a point where we can just build a PC that very similar to a home console in architecture, price and performance. Then there are advances in the software space like Steam Big Picture that try to put it closer to a console experience. I also think it's just a matter of time until we get the Xbox Series dashboard on Windows.


And even in handhelds, Smach-Z failed but it shed light on the general interest for similar products, which created a market for great performing PC handhelds with Tiger Lake that play pretty much all AAAs at 720p-1080p. Right now those are pretty expensive, but if AMD gets their act together to compete and some product gets enough sales for a significant economy of scale then I think we might get those down to $400-500, which is quite close to the Switch.


Nintendo is ahead of the curve with a dedicated hybrid.
You can't stream to a handheld that doesn't exist, you need a device in your hands, and a stupid fucking mobile phone will never cut it.
What if it's a.. smart phone?

Badum-tss
 
  • Thoughtful
Reactions: VysePSU

FStubbs

Member
Aug 29, 2010
4,677
901
895
Nov 22, 2019
411
732
305
I honestly wonder where the confidence in game streaming comes from or why people even want it. It's a complete forfeit of what little ownership we have left in this industry and content division among the 5000 different video streaming platforms is not something I want over buying games. I'm also not sure why casuals would want it either when they like to focus on very few games overall. I think Game pass is about as far as it can really go and that isn't a full replacement to hardware or buying games, it's a supplement, something on the side that can enhance how they enjoy games and enables people to try more games.
 
Last edited:

EverydayBeast

thinks Halo Infinite is a new graphical benchmark
Aug 18, 2017
9,850
6,994
895
Mount Olympus
www.neogaf.com
They can just release a game or operating system I’ve seen games launch and don’t remember them requiring their own hardware. Stream is deep and only requires an OS.
 

Rat Rage

Member
Aug 13, 2019
887
1,285
360
If they make a completely new Earthworm Jim for the Amiico - which they said they would do- , and if it turns out legitimately great, AND if they don't sell it for more than 150 dollars, they MIGHT have a chance.
 

Renozokii

Member
Nov 4, 2019
258
425
280
Nonsense, streaming has been a disaster and Sony has always been a hardware company.

If any of you have heard the term 'out of sight, out of mind'..... a console is not just the hardware , it is a constant piece of marketing infront of a person.
Xbox may go streaming only but Sony and Nintendo will not and I think you'll see poor overall results from streaming anyway.

Nobody wants to pay a bill for their child and be robbed of the feeling of seeing them open a brand new console..... the buzz about this forum and the internet in general due to the PS5 and XSX was incredible. Moving to streaming will kill much of the excitement about gaming and to be honest, I have no interest in that type of gaming.

Stadia, and Amazon can't make games and even after 20 years Xbox struggles.....

So I think the prediction is laughable.

It also only serves the corporations.... locking away ownership from gamers and putting it behind a paywall they control, that will be pushed ever higher.
I agree on both fronts. On one, streaming is inevitable. On the other, why the fuck is anyone in a rush to get there? I’m already over this Netflix Hulu Disney plus hbo max shit. I have access to more content than ever before but it feels like I have nothing to watch. The more widespread and commercial it all becomes the more watered down it all feels. I have infinite music on Spotify but I listen to the same 10 albums. When I first hooked up my ps5 and got into demon souls and spider man it was just a dope ass experience. Having my buddy come over who didn’t get to get a ps5 turned into a few shots and then a drinking game with us and our girls. They just talked and we both sat there jerking each other off about the graphics basically lmao. It’s a fun time.

People are in such a rush for corporations to make more money and have to try less hard to sell us on their product. When Netflix had to sell people on the idea the content was amazing and the price was cheap. Now the subscription just keeps going up and the content gets less interesting.
 

Bryank75

Gold Member
Jan 12, 2018
9,340
21,356
960
Ireland
I agree on both fronts. On one, streaming is inevitable. On the other, why the fuck is anyone in a rush to get there? I’m already over this Netflix Hulu Disney plus hbo max shit. I have access to more content than ever before but it feels like I have nothing to watch. The more widespread and commercial it all becomes the more watered down it all feels. I have infinite music on Spotify but I listen to the same 10 albums. When I first hooked up my ps5 and got into demon souls and spider man it was just a dope ass experience. Having my buddy come over who didn’t get to get a ps5 turned into a few shots and then a drinking game with us and our girls. They just talked and we both sat there jerking each other off about the graphics basically lmao. It’s a fun time.

People are in such a rush for corporations to make more money and have to try less hard to sell us on their product. When Netflix had to sell people on the idea the content was amazing and the price was cheap. Now the subscription just keeps going up and the content gets less interesting.
Yeah, Netflix is just terrible. I just cancelled my sub to it because the content is so bad here in Ireland. I was logging in and just scrolling and scrolling and seeing nothing interesting.... last thing I watched was this documentary on Samurai and it was not very well made, full of inaccuracies, the people that make free videos on youtube know more it seems.
 

Zannegan

Member
Feb 20, 2018
1,471
992
505
You're right, barring any major missteps from the "Big Three," it would be difficult for any competitor to oust them. That said, if there's a massive paradigm shift in what hardware is or means, then all three could be replaced/overshadowed in a generation if they don't watch out. Everyone thought that shift would be streaming, which is why so many big players rushed in with their streaming solutions. Maybe streaming will prove to be the big change in the end, but based on the tepid response to Onlive, Stadia, etc. we aren't there yet (thank goodness).

If someone really wanted in though, it would have to be someone established in another arena like Apple, and they would want to target the portable/hybrid space that Switch currently occupies alone rather than try to duke it out against the high end boxes. Pricing will always be an issue for Apple though, and they don't seem interested. More money in being a premium all-purpose hardware maker it seems.

Still, with the number of kids playing Fortnight and Brawlstars on their tablets and phones, you could almost consider Apple and Google players 4 and 5 (or even 1 and 2) among the "Big Five."
 

Rhazer Fusion

Member
May 2, 2006
10,853
2,179
1,510
In my own world.
m.youtube.com
Since a lot of people want exclusives to disappear and wants all consoles to have all the same games, I think another competitor would be pointless because they wouldn’t be able to bring anything new to the industry unless you are talking about features or peripherals.

That’s why we still need exclusives. It gives consoles an identity, produces better games that typically take advantage of hardware and a reason to try out other platforms. If everything is the same, we might as well have one major platform with all games then. Unless, the newcomer has a really cool gimmick or features, what would be the point in buying their new console from a new competitor unless one of the established competitors screwed something up on their end?
 

bender

Bending Rodríguez (22, 1,729)
Apr 12, 2010
8,985
12,981
1,420
No one forget Tommy or Intellivision. No one!

 

Zeroing

Member
Sep 19, 2019
356
450
270
Apple does not want to go into gaming as a serious business opportunity! They just stay still, having mobile games being developed for their ecosystem !
They will not pour money to built or buy gaming studios.
 

fermcr

Member
Mar 24, 2017
790
1,170
470
Wouldn't care for a Apple console since it would be excessively expensive... but I wouldn't be surprised if Amazon or Google launched a console to compete with Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo.
 

Dream-Knife

Member
Feb 22, 2021
227
184
205
This is true. The console and portable hardware sales have gone down the past 10 years despite gaming growing in sales and gamers.

the biggest hardware push was the 360, PS3, wii, psp, ds, 3ds years.

gamers are consolidating hardware and the next step at some point will consolidate more when devices can stream properly
People always say this, yet ignore the rising numbers of PC gamers, while also ignoring that a lot of casuals who played on DS are now on mobile. The wii was also overinflated by rehab hospitals, retirement homes, and your grandparents buying them.
 
Apr 20, 2015
1,064
1,861
595
Varoufakis calls this "techno-feudalism". Might give you an idea how some people interpret the observation you've made, OP.