An Insomniac Spiderman will never come to Xbox. I'd put large amounts of money on that.Eh, Sony handed Spiderman back to the MCU because their own attempts at a Spiderman universe failed totally. So I don't think they have the sort of leverage that you may think.
MLB pushed Sony to get their game on more platforms. I think Sony would be open to the idea of putting Spiderman on other platforms if the incentives line up. It's always a question of money, nothing more.