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What do Google Trends mean for the 2020 US Election?

Sejan

Member
Sep 28, 2018
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Google trends is an interesting site that allows you to compare search terms for google searches. Many people have suggested an enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats. I was curious to see if there was a way to test it. On a whim, I decided to check Google trends to see how Trump and Biden compare. Here are the results:

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden:




Vote Trump vs. Vote Biden:




Some other thoughts:
  • Typing either "Tru" or "Don" brings trump into the search suggestions. On the other hand, "Joe" or "Bid" does not bring up Biden at all. You have to type at least "Joe B" or "Bide" before he shows up in the search suggestions.
  • The only time that Biden came up ahead of Trump in either of these searches was the weeks of March 1-7 and 8-14 where he was ahead 20-15 and 9-8 respectively on the comparison of "Vote Trump vs. Vote Biden". These trends were tied at 4-4 on March 15-21 for the same comparison. Other than these 3 exceptions, Trump is ahead in every other week on both searches.
  • In the "Vote Trump vs. Vote Biden" comparison "Vote Trump" is ahead in every regions with Washington DC being his worst performing area. Searches for "Vote Trump" are ahead in DC by 67% Trump to 33% Biden.
  • It should be noted that these are not necessarily referencing positive search results. It is most likely that a portion of these searches are looking for negative information about either term.

I'm curious of your thoughts on these trends and I'd like to hear your opinions.
 

RedVIper

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Jun 13, 2017
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Probably doesn't mean much.

People who are voting for biden are probably googling trump more than biden anyway.
 
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Sign

Member
Jun 4, 2012
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The voter enthusiasm gap is perhaps the largest it has ever been in history.

It's why they are having to push mail-in ballots so much. They can't win without harvesting.
 
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Tesseract

Crushed by Thanos
Dec 7, 2008
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biden's relevancy spikes are not good

(and i don't even give a shit about this stuff)
 
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showernota

Member
Jun 6, 2020
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Somewhat related evidence to back up your OP:

According to socialblade, Trump's Youtube channel has gained a weekly average of 106k subscribers, while Biden is at a 16.5k

Funny note, Trump's channel is rated B while Biden's is B+, despite Trump's metrics being FAR greater in every respect.
 
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#Phonepunk#

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Sep 4, 2018
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Trump is very popular and very entertaining

This is why he’s profitable to the media

This is also why he will win again
 
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-Arcadia-

Gold Member
Aug 20, 2019
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Google HQ currently in a panic to fix this.

This is really intriguing. I agree that we should be careful not to look too far into it (especially when Trump is always, always being talked about, by everyone), but I do find it to be valuable, unbiased data, which we don’t see a whole lot of.
 
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Sejan

Member
Sep 28, 2018
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I do think Trump being the #1 star of the right and left has something to do with it. No one is voting for Biden, they're voting AGAINST Trump, so they're still looking up stories to reinforce the fact that hate or love him.
Yeah. I’m sure some of those Trump searches are people desperately looking for Trump’s pee tapes and whatever other negative information they can find. However, I feel like it’s reasonably likely that some of the Biden searches are trying to find out whether or not he has dementia.

That’s why I tested for vote trump and vote Biden, too. Yes, some people are likely searching along the lines of, “why would anyone ever ‘vote trump’,” but It’s the best positive search I could think of at the time.
 

TeezzyD

Fantastik Tuna
Mar 18, 2020
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No one is actually voting for Biden. This election is Trump vs Not Trump. It’s hard to read into the trend lines as a result.
People, more than anything - especially during the pandemic, want boring 'normal' back. Biden represents that in spades. I think that's what people voted for.

There's a reason he swept the primaries the way he did. Voting for Biden is like voting for a Bologna sandwich on Wonder bread.