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What year do you anticipate Switch will stop leading console hardware sales?

What year do you think Switch will stop leading in hardware sales?

  • 2022

  • 2023

  • 2024 or later


Results are only viewable after voting.

Marty-McFly

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Jul 2, 2021
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All consoles get old at some point and sales slow. Will they have a late console refresh, new console, and how long can they maintain leading console hardware sales?

The Switch seems to have long legs as well though.

The Switch just had it's second best fiscal q1 since it came on the market and is on pace to sell over 20 million again this year, which is the highest 3 years straight of any console in history. There have been no price drops yet and some really big games will soon be out in the wild.


 
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Derktron

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When a revisioned Nintendo Switch Pro comes out if it ever does come out or when it's time for Nintendo to release new hardware. There's no telling when it would ever stop.
 
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Arthimura

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Dec 20, 2015
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Maybe only in the end of it's lifecycle.

But PS5 and Xbox Series are not competing directly with Switch, they're more expensive hardware.

Switch is a good gift for non-gamers and people who only wants to play games once in a while. PS5 and Xbox however are for more engaged consumers.
 

Bonfires Down

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My take is that Nintendo will keep the Switch around as a budget price option even after the successor is out, and many Nintendo games will keep releasing on both systems. If that's the case it's gonna have long legs and probably sell 150+ M. But I'm thinking the PS5 will overtake it in 2023 as they should be freely available at that point and next gen exclusives will be the norm then.
 

Marty-McFly

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Eddie-Griffin

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Jul 11, 2021
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This year?

PS5 and XSX have come close in Switches low months, assuming they are sticking for the holiday it's possible they beat Switch by the holidays months at the end of the year.

And once stock becomes normal after that they'll be ahead indefinitely.
 

Sub Boss

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When the big hitters of new gen come out like God of War and Horizon, but Switch still has plenty of life left with BotW2, Splatoon, Mario, etc. it would be common to have a calm year until Switch 2 gets announced but 2022 should be a good year.
 

Marty-McFly

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This year?

PS5 and XSX have come close in Switches low months, assuming they are sticking for the holiday it's possible they beat Switch by the holidays months at the end of the year.

And once stock becomes normal after that they'll be ahead indefinitely.
Sony shipped 2.3 million PS5's this past fiscal quarter and Nintendo 4.5 million Switch's,

The holiday months typically skew in favor of Nintendo. This year is pretty much impossible I believe.
 
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curlycare

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steamcommunity.com
 

Romulus

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I don't think most people consider it a console. We all know it has a dock mode, but being a 2 and 1 and dirt cheap it's just never been a fair comparison. It's supposed to outsell home consoles.
 
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Marty-McFly

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2022. I'm assuming the sales rise because siblings see a Switch and want one themselves. I imagine most of the Switch sales are Switch Lights.
Switch Lite sales represented 1.14 million of Nintendo's 4.5 million Switch's sold in the last reported fiscal quarter. Switch is selling much better than its little brother.
 
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iHaunter

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Switch Lite sales represented 1.14 million of Nintendo's 4.5 million Switch's sold in the last reported fiscal quarter. Switch is selling much better than its little brother.
Now THAT is the real news. Assuming families have multiple switches, I would assume the former. But I guess the US did get a lot of stimulus checks. Makes sense.
 
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Marty-McFly

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Lite's low sales actually have me thinking the OLED is going to become very popular.

Average consumers want a premium model in this day and age and they probably see a nice shiny OLED screen as a bigger improvement than specs, which they don't know or care about.
 
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CamHostage

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Maybe never? Switch will have stiff competition coming up as the next-gen consoles hit their strides, but the Switch is satisfying both the console and the portable needs of its audience, and low specs don't matter much for the majority of titles on the platform.

...On the other hand, Nintendo is selling essentially zero Game Boys or DSes right now, so it's not just glorious success on an unprecedented level going on right now. Switch is succeeding, which is grand to be around for as a gamer, but Switch has to succeed like this for Nintendo to continue being Nintendo as we know it.
 

Cutty Flam

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There are a lot of great games coming to the Nintendo Switch this holiday season, and BOTW’s sequel alone in 2022 is going be a major system seller so probably not until late 2023 if even then

When Final Fantasy XVI comes out I expect PS5 to surge in sales and start dominating
 

Marty-McFly

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When was Switch more expensive? PS4 outsold Switch the year of Switch's launch.
Switch sold 21 million and 28.8 million its last two fiscal years respectively, and is on pace to do over 20 million this fiscal year. It's on pace to have the best 3 year stretch in console history.

PS4's best year was 20 million. Can PS5 reach PS4's heights and surpass them? That's the question that remains to be seen.
 
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Azelover

Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
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Next year, probably. Now, I'm a Nintendo enthusiast, and even I thought it would have happened already.

So it's up in the air as far as I'm concerned. But I voted 2022.
 

Marty-McFly

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2023.
Neither Playstation, nor Xbox can build and supply enough consoles to beat Switch in 2022.

But 2023 is a given. I suspect both Xbox and Playstation to outsell Switch
Switch would be in it's 6th/7th year. It would be almost unheard of for it to be outselling the other main industry platforms at that point even though its lifetime sales could be heading towards #1 of all time by then. There could be a new Switch planned though. A good time would be to release it with some record breaking killer ip evergreen, like Breath of The Wild did for Switch.

Maybe Mario Kart 9.
 
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IFireflyl

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I was just given a warning for "console warring" and had my post in here deleted which said that the Switch console uses sub-par hardware, is targeted at casual gamers, and its hardware sales don't matter since they aren't in direct competition with anyone. If the mod/admin who did this and gave me a three-month long warning could PM me so you can help me wrap my head around what is and isn't console warring, that would be super awesome.

Maybe I'm mis-remembering my post from an hour ago, but my entire point was that it's a cheaper console with no competition, and it leading in hardware sales is irrelevant since the other hardware out there has direct competition. That's factual, and isn't a console warring claim. Nintendo Switch has no direct competition (until the Steam Deck comes out, maybe), and anything that doesn't have direct competition tends to have higher sales.

Anyway, PM me please. :)
 

Marty-McFly

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Switch OLED is going to be a beast.

Even at $350 USD.

The screen immediately looks way better.

The average joe public want premium models and gimped SKU's like Switch Lite and XSS are not selling nearly as well.
 

Marty-McFly

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When Sony produces more ps5’s
Switch reported 28.8 million last fiscal year, that is 8.8 million more than PS4's best year ever of 20 million.

The market for Switch seems larger. It's inevitable that Switch sales will slow down like every other console, but it is on track to be in the top three consoles of all time with PS2 and DS. It's actually tracking ahead of PS2. In that regard, it is the de facto console of this generation's sales.
 
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Azelover

Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
Dec 3, 2004
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Switch reported 28.8 million last fiscal year, that is 8.8 million more than PS4's best year ever of 20 million.

The market for Switch seems larger. It's inevitable that Switch sales will slow down like every other console, but it is on track to be in the top three consoles of all time with PS2 and DS. It's actually tracking ahead of PS2. In that regard, it is the de facto console of this generation's sales.
It is very impressive isn't it? It's also very scary because the bar is quite high. It can't stay so high forever..
 

Marty-McFly

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It is very impressive isn't it? It's also very scary because the bar is quite high. It can't stay so high forever..
As long as Nintendo stays with this form factor which it looks like they're going to do, they should comfortably sell 100 million plus consoles every gen as long as they keep pumping out the games to one platform.

Switch first party game sales are what drives this beast. The move to one platform for handheld and home was significant because Nintendo is now strong enough on one platform to not only sustain themselves but dominate, whether games are streamed to it in the future, downloaded, or sold as physical media.

 
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Azelover

Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
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As long as Nintendo stays with this form factor which it looks like they're going to do, they should comfortably sell 100 million plus consoles every gen as long as they keep pumping out the games to one platform.

Switch first party game sales are what drives this beast. The move to one platform for handheld and home was significant because Nintendo is now strong enough on one platform to not only sustain themselves but dominate, whether games are streamed to it in the future, downloaded, or sold as physical media.

I hate to be a negative Nancy, so I'm gonna agree with you. The bar is high but there's always room for growth. I still believe in Nintendo and there's a lot of stuff they can still do.
 
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Zannegan

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Unless the OLED really grabs consumers, probably 2022 (barely) or 2023 (comfortably), depending on when the manufacturing difficulties end.

If they drop the price and release another Animal Crossing or Mario Kart or something similar, that could change the story.

A true "Pro" console would also excite the core and inspire upgrade purchases, though I doubt it would have THAT big of an impact. IIRC the PS4 Pro and X1X only ever sold a fraction of what their base models did.

I think the real question for Nintendo is, can they glide into a gradeful decline of 15-20 million per year, or will their sales drop like a rock before the successor hits?
 
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WitchHunter

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How do you compete your gourmet offering (talking megabacon donut) with a mass product (simple bread)?
 

Marty-McFly

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Unless the OLED really grabs consumers, probably 2022 (barely) or 2023 (comfortably), depending on when the manufacturing difficulties end.

If they drop the price and release another Animal Crossing or Mario Kart or something similar, that could change the story.

A true "Pro" console would also excite the core and inspire upgrade purchases, though I doubt it would have THAT big of an impact. IIRC the PS4 Pro and X1X only ever sold a fraction of what their base models did.

I think the real question for Nintendo is, can they glide into a gradeful decline of 15-20 million per year, or will their sales drop like a rock before the successor hits?
Their software output determines how long the Switch 1.0 train lasts.

If Switch 2.0 launches with Mario Kart 9 I can see it beating Switch 1.0 sales.
 
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Robb

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I picked 2023 since 2022 seem to have several big AAA games from Nintendo, Switch OLED is out (and maybe they'll even launch a "pro", who knows) and I also expect Sony/MS to continue to struggle a bit with production even in 2022.
 

KungFucius

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Jul 16, 2008
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It's debatable if it would lead this year if the PS5 weren't supply constrained.
This is ridiculous fanboy whataboutism that adds nothing to the conversation. It should be my favorite system if my favorite company didn't have to worry about logistics and long term supply planning.

PS5 is in demand but they are selling more than the PS4 did. Sony planned that level of supply. It is not supply constrained, supply of components is limiting options to increase supply. They can't magically add capacity and would not unless they knew they could sustain sales at that level for years. Demand for units when the system is new does not really translate into demand when the system is 3 years old still selling for 500 bucks. If you look at PS4 sales, they are nearly constant on a yearly basis. They plan manufacturing capacity with a little margin and lock those deals in. If Sony dumped 10 million more on the market this year they would probably sell and win this stupid pissing contest for you this year. Then what? They bought capacity to sell 80% more and now instead of in the future and now have to either pay the factories to not make PS5s or pay warehouses to store them while they slowly trickle through retail, or they could get a less favorable deal on manufacturing for a 1 year bump that basically fucks up their business model.
 
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