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Analysis Platform When its all said and done, which console will be more successful, PS5 or Xbox Series X|S?

FritzJ92

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Define successful? Sales aren't everything... If MS can monetize a 50-75 million base to continuously spend money, MS would consider Xbox pretty successful IMO
 

bumleforce

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I mean ps5 will sell more consoles but not much more like this gen. Xbox will have more active users. both will have great first party so both sides will claim victory and honestly they both will be victorious in their own way. We all win
 

mcjmetroid

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I think for the first 1 absolutely Sony and worldwide always Sony. But if we're just talking western countries after 1 year it's anybodies ball game.

I can really feel this gamepass thing catching mainstream fire.
 

Jokerevo

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Ps5 again because their pipeline is much better this gen. I cannot recall a year one launch for any Sony machine where we are also going to get horizon 2, gt7, ratchet and GoW in the same year not to mention the possibility of ff16 in year one. Sony clearly have prioritised their scheduling, but can they mantain a constant flow of exclusives?

I still do not understand how MS have allowed themselves 6 years to prepare for this launch and they still could not secure one genuine flagship or AAA game for launch. I mean wtf are new owners playing? 3rd party I guess. and now we could be waiting up to 2 or 3 years for those titles? Xbox desperately needs that killer 12 flop app, it clearly should be Halo but with MS so desperate to maintain 60 fps parity on the Xss means that big brother will suffer from scaling/optimisation.

Without exclusives many Pc owners do not even consider XsX but with ps ports to hit PC there will be some who will jump because of the value proposition. HZD 2 arriving on Ps5 will tempt some.

Switch 2 is going to make some serious waves though and I expect them to finish 2nd again.


One thing MS need to be wary of is install base, if they fall too far behind again we could see some big third party titles becoming exclusives to Ps5 first because make no mistake, the rental concept is a genuine threat to the huge independents like Rockstar who want to make the real money from unit sales and want to see the rental model fail. This could push GTA6 to PS etc etc.
 

Ozzy Onya A2Z

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Early to mid gen is Sony's still. Mid-late gen Xbox could close the gap considerably.

In terms of outside just the consoles Xbox is poised to go huge with PC, devices, Gamepass and xCloud. The early-mid gen of that larger picture is all Xbox over Sony, we will see how far Sony can catch up in that space, if at all possible.
 

Rolla

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Early to mid gen is Sony's still. Mid-late gen Xbox could close the gap considerably.

In terms of outside just the consoles Xbox is poised to go huge with PC, devices, Gamepass and xCloud. The early-mid gen of that larger picture is all Xbox over Sony, we will see how far Sony can catch up in that space, if at all possible.

PC, devices, and GP are all available now.
 

Ozzy Onya A2Z

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PC, devices, and GP are all available now.

 

Kumomeme

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depend on how ms do their things and the location of the market, XSS might gained some momentum but i doubt it would remain after middle of generation unless developers comitted to support it till end of generation.

it safely to said PS5 will maintain their momentum from ps4 unless sony screw up while Switch might do some suprise i reckon, if for example the 4k switch is coming next year with dlss for example.
 

yurinka

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If PS4 sold over 2x compared to XBO, I think PS5 will sell around 3X compared to Series X|S.

I think this Christmas PS5 will have a small lead, but during 2021 and 2022 there will be a huge difference in sales due to difference in big exclusives. Sony has many of them ready, while I think Xbox only has Halo until late 2022. Then from that point until the end of the generation the difference of consoles sold per year will slowly decrease but with Sony always having the lead. Main reason: exclusives, mostly because all Xbox exclusives will be playable on PC, with all the MS games being on Gamepass. And MS won't care, because this generation their focus will be Gamepass and not Xbox.

I think MS will discontinue XBO and Series S on 2023, the year where Sony will release PSVR2. I think the next big purchase of MS will be Valve to have the monopoly of the PC.
 
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bxrz

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If PS4 sold over 2x compared to XBO, I think PS5 will sell around 3X compared to Series X|S.

I think this Christmas PS5 will have a small lead, but during 2021 and 2022 there will be a huge difference in sales due to difference in big exclusives. Sony has many of them ready, while I think Xbox only has Halo until late 2022. Then from that point until the end of the generation the difference of consoles sold per year will slowly decrease but with Sony always having the lead. Main reason: exclusives, mostly because all Xbox exclusives will be playable on PC, with all the MS games being on Gamepass. And MS won't care, because this generation their focus will be Gamepass and not Xbox.

I think MS will discontinue XBO and Series S on 2023, the year where Sony will release PSVR2. I think the next big purchase of MS will be Valve to have the monopoly of the PC.
What?

Starfield, FM8, Fable, Hellblade 2 are all coming before late 2022
 

junguler

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those x360 players who bought a ps4 don't have a big reason to go back to xbox again, don mattrick really did a number on the xbox brand and they are still paying for it, no matter how unfair that is.
 
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eNT1TY

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Jul 7, 2019
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Both stay in their lane and both have success, Sony slightly less so than last gen because PS4 style domination is an anomaly. MS will have a considerably better gen than last because getting dominated Xbox One style is also an anomaly. Finish line will be Sony winning the race with a commanding lead but not lapping them twice.
 

Iced Arcade

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Canada eh
PS5 without a doubt.


As a green fan, i like them behind... 2nd place (or 3rd) has that hunger in em and consumers benefit. #1 is always cocky and comfortable.

Bottom line is... Competition is good for us consumers
 

DavidGzz

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60/40 Sony/MS when it comes to consoles sold, but MS will make the most profit. Xcloud and Game Pass will do well worldwide. Those 28 studios will be cranking out the games and it will be tough for all but the most hardcore fanboys to avoid the Xbox ecosystem. A Series S plus Game Pass will be a no-brainer especially when the next Elder Scrolls and Starfield come out.
 
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reinking

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Both will continue to be successful at making money. Sony will win console sales and MS will win subs. Pretty much a repeat of this generation.
 

Alan Wake

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No one said that MS is in this just for charity. They obviously want to make money. But they (Greenberg) have also said that they are not expecting to see GP's benefits in the short term but in the long term. Right now they can afford to loose money because for them that is an investment for the future in order to be at a better position than anyone else to reap the rewards of their current efforts. But Gamepass is not there yet and i doubt it will be where they trully want it to be in terms of profits during this gen. This is what Spencer meant when he said that it's a marathon not a sprint.

Absolutely, he even said they're "over delivering" right now, meaning they want to suck people into the eco system (subscription) with amazing value hoping to get their money beack in the long run. What "long term" means we do not know. I doubt Microsoft expect to go the entire generation without making profit on Game Pass, that would mean they have a pretty flawed business model taking losses for another seven years.
 

prinz_valium

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I think they'll be virtually tied.
PS5 has more appeal and a bigger brand worldwide, but it will be hard to cut costs and make the console cheaper for that 100m+ market.
Xbox has a lot to gain with Game Pass and the biggest exclusive first party games lineup.
 

sublimit

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Absolutely, he even said they're "over delivering" right now, meaning they want to suck people into the eco system (subscription) with amazing value hoping to get their money beack in the long run. What "long term" means we do not know. I doubt Microsoft expect to go the entire generation without making profit on Game Pass, that would mean they have a pretty flawed business model taking losses for another seven years.
I don't think you understand how huge corporations like MS work and you're looking at this through fanboy eyes.

When Xbox introduced GP during this gen they knew they had lost this gen and they wanted something to disrupt the industry and to help them futureproof their bussines for the long term. Even their 1$ deal for 3 months seems to imply that philosophy. They can afford to loose money on the short term because they know that the most important thing is to make people try their service. Even if they don't renew automatically it will still be a win for MS because most likely they will return to it at some point.Netflix works like that too. They had many goals for GP but making profit on day one i'm sure was not one of their expectations.It was and still is simply impossible. Even now with 15-20 million users i'm sure it's not even nowhere close enough to where they want to be regarding GP profits. Even if we don't know the actual costs behind you only have to put your logic to use and realize that having AAA games for months in your service doesn't come cheap.If it was cheap and was an easily sustainable model other companies would have done so as wel.
However because they are MS (or Google,Apple or Amazon) they can afford to loose money if they know for sure that they will make them back 10 times more in the future. This is called an investment.

Just look at what they did with Zenimax. Do you honestly think that they will make those 7.5 billion dollars back in just a few years? It will take them way much more to make their money back and see the benefits of that deal in terms of profit. It's called an investment and huge companies like MS can afford to do that. Not making profit on day one doesn't mean it's a flawed bussiness when you are expecting your investment to bring you very beneficial results in the long term.
 
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Alan Wake

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I don't think you understand how huge corporations like MS work and you're looking at this through fanboy eyes.

When Xbox introduced GP during this gen they knew they had lost this gen and they wanted something to disrupt the industry and to help them futureproof their bussines for the long term. Even their 1$ deal for 3 months seems to imply that philosophy. They can afford to loose money on the short term because they know that the most important thing is to make people try their service. Even if they don't renew automatically it will still be a win for MS because most likely they will return to it at some point.Netflix works like that too. They had many goals for GP but making profit on day one i'm sure was not one of their expectations.It was and still is simply impossible. Even now with 15-20 million users i'm sure it's not even nowhere close enough to where they want to be regarding GP profits. Even if we don't know the actual costs behind you only have to put your logic to use and realize that having AAA games for months in your service doesn't come cheap.If it was cheap and was an easily sustainable model other companies would have done so as wel.
However because they are MS (or Google,Apple or Amazon) they can afford to loose money if they know for sure that they will make them back 10 times more in the future. This is called an investment.

Just look at what they did with Zenimax. Do you honestly think that they will make those 7.5 billion dollars back in just a few years? It will take them way much more to make their money back and see the benefits of that deal in terms of profit. It's called an investment and huge companies like MS can afford to do that. Not making profit on day one doesn't mean it's a flawed bussiness when you are expecting your investment to bring you very beneficial results in the long term.

First of all: no, I'm not a fanboy and I'm not looking at this through fanboy eyes. I have all PlayStation consoles at home, btw.

To the matter in question: Of course they can afford to lose money in the short term (they can afford it even in the infinite term, but Spencer would never get such a plan approved and why should he). Both Spencer and Greenberg have been very candid about that they're in this for the long haul. Spencer has said however that it is a business model that "works" as he put it, the exact numbers only he and other insiders can know. I don't think we have to worry too much about Microsoft's financials, tbh.

About ZeniMax: that's content, not a service or a business model so the comparison is a bit flawed. But who thought they would get back the money from purchasing Mojang, but seeing how Minecraft keeps selling like crazy tells another story.
 

DrAspirino

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However because they are MS (or Google,Apple or Amazon) they can afford to loose money if they know for sure that they will make them back 10 times more in the future. This is called an investment.

Just look at what they did with Zenimax. Do you honestly think that they will make those 7.5 billion dollars back in just a few years? It will take them way much more to make their money back and see the benefits of that deal in terms of profit. It's called an investment and huge companies like MS can afford to do that. Not making profit on day one doesn't mean it's a flawed bussiness when you are expecting your investment to bring you very beneficial results in the long term.
Exactly.

Amazon was bleeding money for years while they were implementing Amazon Web Services. Now they're the biggest cloud computing service in the world, followed only by Microsoft (with Azure), and Google in "distant" 3rd place.
 
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yurinka

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What?

Starfield, FM8, Fable, Hellblade 2 are all coming before late 2022
None of them have been announced for 2021, or even for 2022. They don't have release year.

And according to Microsoft's website they wont be released on XBO, they aren't crossgen and their trailers don't have XBO logo or removed it in the recent ones: https://www.xbox.com/en-US/games/optimized?xr=shellnav

MS said many times that in the first couple of years their games would be crossgen. So it's fair to assume they will be released 2 years ofter the Series X release (that is, November 2022) or later if aren't crossgen they they don't announced them as 2021 games.
 
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danielJackson

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US: 50-60% PS5, 40-50% xbox

Rest of the world: 75-80% PS5, 20-25% Xbox

While xbox gang have talked for last 8 months how xbox will win because of 12tf & GP, it is far from being enough to turn decades of success into ash.

Outside of US it is massacre.

Only limiting factor for first 18 months for PS5 will be its sold out status.

For the first 6-8 months PS5 will be really difficult to get, and after that still a bit rare to find them

This is my profesy
 

LordOfChaos

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The PS5 has way more global hype and it's going to win the generation no contest. Microsoft will do better than the XBO generation, and the TAM for both will grow. The PS5 may well be on the way to beat the PS4 in lifetime sales.
 

KungFucius

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You would need to include MS's PC presence to really know. PS5 will sell way more consoles. MS games might be played by more people though.
 

bxrz

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None of them have been announced for 2021, or even for 2022. They don't have release year.

And according to Microsoft's website they wont be released on XBO, they aren't crossgen and their trailers don't have XBO logo or removed it in the recent ones: https://www.xbox.com/en-US/games/optimized?xr=shellnav

MS said many times that in the first couple of years their games would be crossgen. So it's fair to assume they will be released 2 years ofter the Series X release (that is, November 2022) or later if aren't crossgen they they don't announced them as 2021 games.
Revealing release dates years away in this climate is stupid. COVID has changed everything and is still changing everything. We will know more at TGA on December 10th but revealing years away release dates for games isn't smart.
 
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BigBooper

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Almost certainly PS5 unless the have a red ring level disaster. I think Xbox will close the gap a lot this time though. Backwards compatibility will sell a ton, I think.
 
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pixelation

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Well, the PS5 has the most impressive looking launch titles... and when it really comes down to it, it's all about the games.
 

BadBurger

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I think the PS5 is going to outsell the Xbox Box Series whatevers even more than the PS4 outsold the XB1. There's the massive momentum, and I honestly have never seen such little interest in a new console before as I have the new Xbox Series. I don't even bother reading news stories about it any longer. Still the same old replaceable battery boring controller. The new console has some extra teraflops but it's like big deal when the PS5 has an ultra fast SSD changing things, a cool new controller, a push for 3D audio, and now it plays UHD blu-rays too so that's one less reason to get an Xbox - all this while it has cool exclusives not only out of the gate but on the horizon.

I think Microsoft basically conceded the console "war" when they decided to go all in on Game Pass and cross platform releases. They just want to sell their platform everywhere and get people to subscribe to their service. They're not trying to outsell Sony in living room.
 

Ash Sparrow

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Nobody cares about Nintendo, they are going to be successful doing Nintendo.

I predict MS And Sony will tie this gen though.

Sony fans were right and exclusives do move the dial. Those who have watched gaming closely know and have seen it happen before. MS is going to hit a sort of singularity with its games studios, where they are pumping out exclusive after exclusive. Nothing is going to stop those hardware numbers. Also the Xbox is more powerful. In two years that power begins to show, it will be noticeable and terrifying to some PlayStation gamers. Some may exclaim things like "This rattles me bones"
I've made some pretty radical predictions. I once said that the original Xbox would outsell playstation 3 weeks in a row in Japan, was laughed at then until it happened. I also bought moderna stock at $26