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Which of the big three is most likely to bow out first?

Mama Robotnik

Member
Apr 11, 2008
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Thanks to the Steam sale, I purchased and played Sonic Generations for the first time today. I'm still making up my mind on whether I don't-hate-it or not, but the visual and audio nods to the 16-bit era put me in a somewhat melancholic mood.

I started remembering the 1980s and 1990s, and the incredible gaming experiences the Sega Mega Drive offered me: Sonic 1/2/CD/3/Knuckles, Story of Thor, Soleil, Micro Machines, Ecco the Dolphin, Wonderboy III, Landstalker, Gunstar Heroes, Shining Force, Phantasy Star, Toe Jam and Earl, Comix Zone, far too many to mention. Then I started thinking about when I traded it all in for a Super Nintendo, so I could play Mario All Stars, Yoshi's Island, Mario World, Zelda, Metroid, Actraiser, Sim City, Chrono Trigger, Bomberman, etc.

I ended up trading each of the consoles back in more than once, desperate to play the exclusive new releases on the platform I didn't own. It was an era in which Nintendo and Sega were these competing juggernauts of gaming, both massively successful and apparently untouchable. It was difficult at the time, to imagine them not being these omnipresent first party console makers.

Fast forward two console generations and the unthinkable happens. Sega goes third party, and the Nintendo's Gamecube is relegated to an also-ran position behind its powerhouse rivals. Nintendo of course, were able to bounce back. Sega on the other hand, have cemented a less-glorious but still notable existence as a medium-sized third party publisher.

What I'm trying to explain in a roundabout sort of way, is that it only took ten years for Sega to go from apparently untouchable, to completely bowing out of hardware development. The recollection made me wonder where the industry might be ten or twenty years from today, if and when the juggernauts of this era will be forced to bow out. Simply put, it might take X number of generations, but the status-quo will eventually change.

Here is the question I'm asking with this thread - which of the big three console developers - Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony - would you expect to bow out first?

I don't want one, two, three, four or five-word answers, if you have any reasoning I'd love to hear it. For example, you could look at a company's present financial stability, or a demonstrated weakness to adapt to a changing world. You could look at a company as a whole and how much it prioritises its gaming developments, or look at how much stability the company would have when faced with repeated failures. You could look at the increasing influence of other forces in the industry, or at the big three's ability to endure possibly worsening international economic upheaval. You can offer any reasoning you like, I'll be interested to hear it.

Its obviously completely wanton speculation, as it equally would have been back in the Mega Drive and SNES era, but speculation is fun. So then, which of the big three companies, do you see bowing out of console development first, and why?

(You might also see multiple scenarios taking place, in which XYZ series of events happen causing one to bow out, but ABC series of events could lead to the other bowing out - these speculations would also be welcomed).

Thanks.
 

Ignis Fatuus

Banned
Feb 17, 2009
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The only one who seems to be on a precarious edge is Sony. Their entire company outside of insurance is doing poorly and Vita is off to an APOCALYPTIC start. Anything can happen, but in all seriousness if the Vita numbers don't make sense for them financially I wouldn't be shocked to see it go the way of the Dreamcast. Their success or failure to make PS4 profitable will probably determine their future as a gaming hardware manufacturer.
 
Feb 3, 2007
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I can't help but feel Microsoft will happily bail out as soon as they don't think they're making enough money from their games division. It doesn't seem like there are many people in charge over there who consider 'games' as anything other than a formulaic revenue stream like 'TV' or 'movies' any more.
 

LQX

Member
Dec 18, 2008
19,104
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1,270
Obviously Sony. If that does happen though it will be very odd to see them reincarnate themselves as third party publisher. I think we might see merger of some sorts though before one of "the big three" disappears.
 

Frankfurt

Banned
Apr 1, 2009
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Sony, because they don't have the nice cushions that Nintendo and Microsoft have. Microsoft plans three gens ahead (the XBox was about getting into the living room, not about having a winning console) and is fine losing money for a decade, and Nintendo just makes sure to always turn a profit - they don't do bleeding edge.
 

JBuccCP

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Mar 23, 2008
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I'll say Sony. They're a company with shitty leadership that is losing money constantly. I could see a new group of dudes taking over and deciding to trim the fat.
 

Tagg9

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Feb 11, 2010
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Honestly, all three should have enough cash flow to keep chugging along even if they completely crash and burn during a single generation. If I had to pick, it would be Sony - I'm not sure that they've yet made a profit during this generation despite superior exclusives and a free online system.
 

StuBurns

Banned
Jan 9, 2008
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MS probably, not that any would 'bow' out. I think they're most likely to go into more of a first party software platform and online services direction, much easier money. The other two will go down with the dedicated video game platform ship eventually.
 

JGS

Banned
Dec 5, 2008
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I can't help but feel Microsoft will happily bail out as soon as they don't think they're making enough money from their games division. It doesn't seem like there are many people in charge over there who consider 'games' as anything other than a formulaic revenue stream like 'TV' or 'movies' any more.
The shareholders told them as much when 360 was losing money and they were cutting developers.

So they will be the first to leave when times get bad. However, I think they'll be fine. Sony, on the other hand, is hurting more.
 

SolarPowered

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Feb 17, 2009
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*Money and historic software are on Nintendo's side.

*Microsoft is working towards building a strong community that is tied to XBL and has massive funds to fall back on.

*Sony has... Uncharted?

It just doesn't seem like they've been as responsible as they should have and it may come back to bit them in the ass. Microsoft may be most beholden to shareholders, but that is only a problem when times are bad and I don't see things going sour for them if people could support them through RROD. They are looking mighty fine so far and they'll be carrying a lot of momentum into the next generation unlike Sony.
 

Kyon

Banned
Nov 6, 2010
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Microsoft, imo they don't seem to care about the hardcore. They have like almost 0 exclusives and 1st party studios *shrugs*
 

Pre

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Aug 17, 2007
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Microsoft's resources make it possible for them to tank hard next generation and still be in good shape financially. Nintendo has a huge war chest from Wii/DS and is always making a profit, so they aren't likely to disappear anytime soon.

I could see Sony going down if Vita and PS4 flop in the West.
 

Ranger X

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Jun 10, 2004
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Nintendo would probably find its way if it was starting to go down. Right now it's healthy business.

Microsoft are making some monies even if the Xbox business almost cost them more than anything else. I suppose they could bleed it for a fucking long time given it would go bad.

Sony is on the edge financially, one of their most successful business is gaming but as other posters said, anything could happen with the Vita. If that later fails and the next Playstation following suit, it would probably be a situation where bailing out is the less damageable solution.

Apple is fucking healthy right now. I wonder if it can continue to make some doe for a long time without Steve Jobs though. Last time that guy did quit the business Apple started to tank.


So yeah, if I had to bet on the next bail out, i'd bet Sony right now because they are ones with the worse odds.
 

Derrick01

Banned
May 9, 2011
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Sony unfortunately, they're the only ones who still make top notch exclusives in my eyes. MS doesn't even bother to make anything that's not Kinect anymore.

But Sony's in a company-wide mess and they don't really have anything other than Gran Turismo that sells in a huge amount.
 

DCKing

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Jun 20, 2011
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Sony. It's too easy to judge based on last gen but they really did fuck it up bad. They seem to have lost their edge not only in gaming, but in pretty much everything they do.

They need to mix it up with the Vita, but seeing how bad it does even for a steal at $250 I don't have high hopes. Hopefully they can think of something creative with the PS4...
 
Dec 28, 2008
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Sony.

I don't think it's likely any time soon, and I don't want it to happen either. I like the three things that MS, Ninty and Sony bring to the table.
 

Speevy

Banned
Jun 26, 2004
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Sony, which is a shame because the Playstation 1 and 2 had a monumentally positive impact on the gaming industry.
 

Boney

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Jan 6, 2010
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You start by saying that the unthinkable happened in a ten year span, yet ask us to "predict" which of the current console manufacturer will close up shop for a numbers of different factors that have yet and may not even happen.
 

NEOPARADIGM

Banned
Aug 26, 2009
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I love it to death and have done 90% of my gaming on it this gen, but goddamn the PS3 has been a disaster. Thank God for a modest failure rate and free online play is all I'm gonna say.
 

Guevara

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Jul 27, 2009
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Nintendo has almost no ancillary sources of revenue, so obviously not them. Unless you actually believe they ARE DOOMED.

If it weren't for Kaz's ascension I might say Sony. Partially because they are all over the map and partially because they've lost money this gen. Still, Sony has admirable patience for its gaming program and developers. Sony also has had decades of gaming success on their balance sheet going back to the mid 90s. It would be hard to cut such a long term and hugely successful program because of a few bad years.

That leave Microsoft. I'd say they'd be the most likely to quit making traditional gaming consoles, instead making a kind of all in one receiver for home use (that could still use an Xbox 360 controller). Also unlike Sony and Nintendo, Microsoft has never really had a home run in terms of gaming profit. Sony made huge money from the PS1 and 2, Nintendo has almost always made money, Microsoft is closer to breaking even. Microsoft is also not as invested in being a home console gaming company, I'm sure some of their senior staff would prefer just to support PC gaming.

I don't think that's very likely but it's the most possible of the options.
 

Jhriad

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Mar 20, 2011
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With nintendo and sony teaming up for a glorious one console future.

BELIEVE.

shutupandtakemymoney.jpg

It's a toss up between Sony & Nintendo in my mind. Nintendo will eventually go third party as will Sony at some point. Sony studios will soon thereafter wither and die.
 

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
Apr 26, 2006
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Sony, unfortunately. I honestly think they are the ones pushing the envelope when it comes to traditional gaming and making good, amazing games.

microsoft is more about the OS, less about their games.

Nintendo is more about themselves imo...
 

Psychotext

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Jun 15, 2007
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Sony need a (financial) win with either Vita or the PS4 or it's going to start looking pretty grim for them. Company as a whole is not in a very good state either.
 

Mama Robotnik

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Apr 11, 2008
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You start by saying that the unthinkable happened in a ten year span, yet ask us to "predict" which of the current console manufacturer will close up shop for a numbers of different factors that have yet and may not even happen.

I'm saying that what happened to Sega was unthinkable to me. But (1) I was not informed back then on the actual dynamics of the industry, and (2) I was eleven years old.

I'm sure that if GAF existed back then, there would be more than enough to speculate on too.
 

Pre

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Aug 17, 2007
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Microsoft is also not as invested in being a home console gaming company, I'm sure some of their senior staff would prefer just to support PC gaming.

I'd be inclined to agree with this if Microsoft wasn't so shitty at supporting PC gaming to begin with.
 

thomasmahler

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May 11, 2010
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Microsoft pretty much already owns the living room and Nintendo will live as long as the Nintendo IPs are being used to create great games.

So it would be Sony. At the same time there's Steam, Onlive (and similar services), Apple, etc.
 

McNum

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Jul 6, 2009
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Hmm, it's a tough question. I'm thinking it won't be Nintendo as they have nothing else to fall back on. Sony and Microsoft both have the same issue, though. They're public companies whose main income isn't video games. So if the shareholders make enough noise, the game divisions could suddenly get the axe.

But it's difficult to predict the future with this. Considering the losses the shareholders apparently were willing to accept with the original Xbox, and Sony's mad pricing with the PS3 only causing a minor hiccup it's very difficult to tell. But from a business perspective, I'd think Sony might be a little more exposed than Microsoft, as Sony is primarily a hardware company, making electronic gadgets and devices. Microsoft is at least originally a software company, but even then the risk of it becoming all Windows and Office is still there.

I'm thinking that Sony might be the slightly bigger risk, but it's still fairly unlikely they'll give up. The PS4 will come, but the question is if the PS5 will. Of course, the same can be said for Microsoft. There will be a new Xbox, but will that have a successor? Or will MS try to integrate the console and Windows games in the successor to Windows 8?

For Nintendo, they've got such strong game series that they can probably whether most bad situations. All they really need to, is to make a 2D Mario game and a Mario Kart for the Wii U and its successor and they'll keep going. Of course, they might not want to make a 2D Mario for each console, but then it's their own problem. Their shareholders might look at New Super Mario Bros and demand more of that, though. Really, as long as Nintendo has Mario and use him well, I don't see them going anywhere soon. But stranger things have happened, I'll admit, but I'm thinking Nintendo will still be around when the Wii U's generation is over. I can't say the same for the other two, but it's unlikely either will fail, I'll admit.

So, I'll say Sony. It's still fairly unlikely, but it's probably the one with the biggest risk, even if it's really small.
 

runningjoke

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May 20, 2011
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I want to know what Sony is bringing to CES before saying if they are dead or not. The entire consumer electronics side of Sony needs to reinvent their business model. If they keep doing what they do now I don't think Sony will be around for much longer. If Sony makes a better tv than Apples rumored smart tv, and releases earlier and at a lower cost then there may be hope
 

speedline

Banned
Apr 29, 2011
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Sony unfortunately. Ps3 is my most used console this gen and I buy all my multiplats for it except for the exceptions like Bayonetta, ect.

Microsoft ended up going huge after the stomping ninty put on everyone early this gen. Hopefully Sony can pull through and come out strong next gen.
 
Jun 9, 2004
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You guys need to Support Sony more and buy your Vitas day one!
 

Ignis Fatuus

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Feb 17, 2009
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If it weren't for Kaz's ascension I might say Sony. Partially because they are all over the map and partially because they've lost money this gen. Still, Sony has admirable patience for its gaming program and developers. Sony also has had decades of gaming success on their balance sheet going back to the mid 90s. It would be hard to cut such a long term and hugely successful program because of a few bad years.

PS3 wiped out everything they made from PS1 and PS2.