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[vicissitudes]

There is a widespread opinion that Sony will not release the PS4 in Japan this year, with the most commonly-cited reason being that there's a lack of Japanese software available at launch. Now, we don't know this for a fact, because there's still the 9/9 event and TGS, but even if this were true, there are still many western games available at launch. For those who think they don't matter, I'd like to bring up some first week sales figures:

02./00. [PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Subtitled Edition <ACT> (Square Enix) {2012.11.22} (¥7.980) - 197.350 / NEW
02./00. [PS3] Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception # <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2011.11.02} (¥5.980) - 124.989 / NEW
03./00. [PS3] Battlefield 3 <ACT> (Electronic Arts) {2011.11.02} (¥7.665) - 123.379 / NEW
02./00. [PS3] Assassin's Creed III <ACT> (Ubisoft) {2012.11.15} (¥7.770) - 72.504 / NEW <78,59%>

Keep in mind that the largest first week Vita game sales are IIRC around 130-140k. Call of Duty Black Ops II ended up selling over 400k.

So, it's clear that there is a sizable audience in Japan who do, in fact, purchase western games. With titles such as Battlefield 4, Assassin's Creed 4, COD:Ghosts, and Watch Dogs at launch, my question is, why would they not have a PS4 version available in Japan? Imagine of those titles only came out for the PS3, then imagine if they came out for the PS3 and PS4. There are clearly people who would buy these games for the PS4, so why not release them?

Now, some may contend that the PS4 would nevertheless do better with more Japanese-oriented titles at launch. To that I counter with the PS3 launch:

1. (DS) General Knowledge Training - Nintendo - 102,240 - 451,106
2. (DS) Pokemon Diamond - Pokemon - 78,744 - 1,682,896
3. (DS) Kirby: Squeak Squad - Nintendo - 77,949 - 244,081
4. (DS) Pokemon Pearl - Pokemon - 65,574 - 1,423,990
5. (DS) Kanji Brain - IE Institute - 33,932 - NEW
6. (DS) New Super Mario Brothers - Nintendo - 27,361 - 3,393,921
7. (DS) More Brain Age - Nintendo - 24,166 - 3,412,008
8. (DS) Winning Eleven DS - Konami - 23,653 - 112,928
9. (PS3) Ridge Racer 7 - Bandai Namco - 21,655 - NEW
10. (PS3) Gundam: sales Target not in Sight - Bandai Namco - 21,310 - NEW

This is the extend of software that PS3 launched with. I can easily see some PS4 titles I listed above doing as well or better than the PS3 launch titles. If Sony weren't afraid to launch the PS3 with this kind of software, is "lack of software" really a good excuse to not launch the PS4 in Japan?

One more common argument to address: many say that Japan doesn't matter because the console market is dead. I would argue otherwise. Consider the total LTD for consoles two generations ago:

PS2: ~21.4m
Gamecube: ~4m
XBox: ~100k (through April 2006 is the best I can find)
Total: ~25.5m

For the last generation:
Wii: ~12.7m
PS3: ~9.4m
Xbox360: ~1.6m
Total: ~23.7m (and still selling)

As you can see, if we look at total LTD numbers, the console market hasn't really shrunk very much (if at all). Sure, part of this is because of the Wii phenomenon which will likely not repeat, but it does show that there is demand for console gaming, if the consoles are appealing enough. Consoles may be doing badly in Japan right now, but when you see that the only consoles on the market are 1. the PS3 which is 7 years old and 2. the WiiU which has been selling catastrophically bad worldwide, it makes sense. In fact, the WiiU's strongest region is Japan!

Finally, there is the question of whether to allocate units to Japan, or sell more units in larger markets such as America or Europe. My contention is: if Sony has enough units to sell in smaller countries like Peru, Panama, Luxembourg or Chile, then it should be selling in Japan as well. The reasoning is this: Japan is far more important than most countries in Europe or South America because of its developers. Sony needs to establish an install base in Japan as soon as possible so that Japanese developers have an incentive to make PS4 games as soon as possible, which then benefits all regions. Having an install base in a small EU or SA country, on the other hand, does very little for the other regions.

With that said, even though many have written off launching in Japan this year, don't you think it would be a really good idea for Sony to make the PS4 available in Japan 2013?

 

[schwabdizzle]

it will release in Japan this year.

 

[Toki767]

You know the last time Sony released a console in Japan first where the launch was basically all western games? The Vita.

 

[omonimo]

I don't think sony not want to release ps4 on japan this year, but probably they can't. So the best choice, financially, is the europe; I think it is the best decision, at the end.

 

[BlazingDarkness]

It's possible that it will release this year, but I think they're in a position where they could comfortably wait until Feb/March and offer a more robust launch lineup. It's not like there is a rival platform launching over the holiday. Wii U should see some growth but I'd imagine Sony would rather use the PS3 to battle that rather than PS4. Waiting on Japan, they can focus their efforts in 'the war' where it's more challenged, in the West.

 

[komaruR]

might be earlier than na release too.

 

[mrklaw]

If they can, they will. It wouldn't be the end of the world to launch in Japan in late December or even jan 2014, they don't have the huge Christmas thing going on like in Europe and the US

 

[Canis lupus]

it will release in Japan this year.

Probably mid/late december launch.

 

[Garrett 2U]

Japan is Sony's home territory, PS4 better launch there this year!

I don't know how much the rest of you know about Japanese culture..
If you screw someone over in Japan you bring shame to yourself.

This is HUUUUUUGE!

 

[Kagari]

You know the last time Sony released a console in Japan first where the launch was basically all western games? The Vita.

Huh? Bolded are Japanese titles/apps...

BlazBlue: Continuum Shift II Plus
Browser Sangokushi Touch Battle
Project N.O.E.L.S.
Fish On
Dynasty Warriors Musou Next
Shinobido II
Power Smash 4
Uncharted: Golde Abyss
Hot Shots Golf 6
F1 2011
Dream Club
Disgaea 3: Return
Katamari no Biita
Shin Kamaitacho no Yoru
Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3
Yuusha no Kiroku
Dark Quest
Lord of the Apocalypse
Michael Jackson Experience HD
NicoNico Douga
Sawari Makuuru
Ridge Racer
Monster Radar
@field
Minna to Issho: Friend Network
Army Corps of Hell

 

[DragonSworne]

Those games sell better than wii U titles.

I think Sony will lainch in Japan this year.

 

[vicissitudes]

I don't think sony not want to release ps4 on japan this year, but probably they can't. So the best choice, financially, is the europe; I think it is the best decision, at the end.

If they can, they will. It wouldn't be the end of the world to launch in Japan in late December or even jan 2014, they don't have the huge Christmas thing going on like in Europe and the US

What's stopping them? Lack of supply? If they can launch in 32 countries, including countries such as Panama, Peru, Chile, and Luxembourg, they certainly have enough supply. They can easily shift some units from other smaller countries to Japan, and I really don't see why they wouldn't do this.

 

[dan2026]

Announce a PS$ port of Jojo's Bizarre Adventure All Star Battle.

1 million consoles sold in Japan.

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

It's possible that it will release this year, but I think they're in a position where they could comfortably wait until Feb/March and offer a more robust launch lineup. It's not like there is a rival platform launching over the holiday. Wii U should see some growth but I'd imagine Sony would rather use the PS3 to battle that rather than PS4. Waiting on Japan, they can focus their efforts in 'the war' where it's more challenged, in the West.

.

 

[Grover Cleveland]

There's a good chance that it does launch in Japan this year. Just because they haven't announced yet doesn't mean that its guaranteed to be later than the other regions.

That being said, Sony doesn't have to prioritize Japan. No matter when they launch, they'd destroy Xbone and the PS3 is still holding its own against the WiiU.

 

[Raist]

That audience won't disappear if the PS4 is released a couple of months later. THere's no pressure, the WiiU is tanking and the Xbone... well lol.

 

[anexanhume]

It isn't about sales. Sony can be pretty confident that they'll sell every PS4 they make.

It's about marketshare. They have a guaranteed marketshare waiting in Japan with the appropriate games. Their NA and EU marketshares are not as guaranteed.

 

[Sean*O]

How could they neglect Japan given all of the support they've had from that Country over the years? It would be a mistake to delay Japan past the American launch if they can at all afford it. Don't want people to feel slighted and lose mindshare.

It would be like MS launching the Xbone in Japan months ahead of the American market that has always supported them. Not a good look.

 

[boingball]

I think it is important to release the PS4 in Japan this year.
At least as a signal to japanese devs that Sony not only talks but also acts ("Japan is our home market").

 

[GameSeeker]

The OP makes a good point that while Sony lost significant marketshare to Nintendo last gen (Wii vs. PS3), the overall console market didn't decline that much.

The fact that Sony has set a Sept. 9th press event to discuss PS4 launch plans means that they want to get launched ASAP. Given that the Nintendo Wii U is not replicating the success of the Wii and Microsoft doesn't seem likely to launch Xbox One in Japan anytime soon, this gives Sony an excellent window of opportunity.

We will get a good feel how well the Sony manufacturing machine is humming by the launch date for Japan.

 

[Black Republican]

Probably a mid December release

 

[Madness]

I don't think they will. Not about disrespecting the home country but more to do with manufacturing and the fact other territories probably more important.

There's no denying that console gaming isn't down in Japan and that western games just don't sell as well. It'd be in Sony's interest to target new markets like Microsoft.

PAL/Europe Markets:-Australia-Austria-Belgium-Denmark-Finland-France-Germany-Ireland-Italy-Luxemburg-Netherlands-New Zealand-Norway-Poland-Portugal-Russia-Spain-Sweden-Switzerland-United Kingdom

Latin American Markets:-Argentina-Brazil-Chile-Colombia,-Costa Rica-El Salvador-Guatemala-Mexico-Panama-Peru

North American Markets:-Canada-USA

They've covered pretty much their bases here.

 

[BlazingDarkness]

How could they neglect Japan given all of the support they've had from that Country over the years? It would be a mistake to delay Japan past the American launch if they can at all afford it. Don't want people to feel slighted and lose mindshare.

It would be like MS launching the Xbone in Japan months ahead of the American market that has always supported them. Not a good look.

That's not how business works.

 

[Shalashaska161]

They may do it, but if they do it's not coming til the end of December. Like others have said, Sony isn't in any huge rush to get it out in Japan. Maybe if the Wii U wasn't floundering they might be, but at the moment it looks like Sony has next-gen in Japan wrapped up pretty easily.

 

[kidhero1000]

The always exciting GameStop financials for the second quarter of this fiscal year (ending August 3rd) were revealed today, with the company reporting sales of $1.38 billion, an almost 11% drop compared to this time last year. Net income was down quite heavily to $10.5 million, compared to $21 million at the same point last year.

Here’s a breakdown of their sales (via GI.Biz):

Mobile Sales – $55.1 million (up 121%)
Digital Sales – $158 million (up 18%)
New Software Sales – $429.8 million (down over 9%)
Used Software Sales – $528.7 million (down 6%)
New Hardware Sales – $147.8 million (down over 19%)
With games like Grand Theft Auto V coming out in this quarter, GameStop expects sales to rise, while Paul Raines, CEO of GameStop talked about the numbers reported for this previous quarter:

Through two quarters, the year has played out as expected. During this console transition period, our financial results have been supported by the continued growth of our emerging businesses.

http://www.************************...-ps4s-first-to-know-list-xbox-one-has-700000/

 

[EGM1966]

If they have to skip a region Japan is the obvious choice IMHO:

• They can catch up there easiest particularly given relative lack of competition in market for home console (sorry Wii U)
• They know MS ins't a threat there at all (unless the world goes apeshit crazy overnight)
• They know the West is where MS is biggest threat and they have to score their more than anywhere else

Bottom line for Sony I believe is pump every unit possible to West and launch as big as possible against XBone (if stories about lower XBone volume availability are true then they have chance to really take advantage in West early) then follow up with what is probably an easy victory in Japan - whatever console sales are available they'll get easily enough and for many reasons given in the OP.

TBH I don't think their logic and approach can be faulted in terms of launch territories at the moment.

 

[Pai Pai Master]

My bet? Japanese launch in February with Infamous, The Last Guardian (US release a month or so later), and FFXIV A Realm Reborn.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Right, and what happens after launch?

Sony is doing the right thing, they need games releasing every now and then, avoid Wii U/Vita droughts at any cost.

 

[Jeels]

If it really does come out in Japan this year, I better see some representation from the JP publishers for launch worldwide.

 

[Kikujiro]

How could they neglect Japan given all of the support they've had from that Country over the years? It would be a mistake to delay Japan past the American launch if they can at all afford it. Don't want people to feel slighted and lose mindshare.

It would be like MS launching the Xbone in Japan months ahead of the American market that has always supported them. Not a good look.

As someone else said, that's not how business works. Sony may not launch the console this year in Japan because:

1) They already know that the console will end up selling like the PS3 (or more), XBone has no chance and it's not even releasing there this year. WiiU has its own audience that won't affect the PS4.
2) They don't have a worthy line up for the Japanese audience. It's useless to release a console without games that people want to buy (see Nintendo).
3) They want to focus on the western market because it's the biggest and most important market for home consoles, especially when the Japanese market is becoming more handheld oriented.

It's not like Japanese gamers are gonna cry because they won't play Drive Club or Killzone this year.

 

[vicissitudes]

It's possible that it will release this year, but I think they're in a position where they could comfortably wait until Feb/March and offer a more robust launch lineup. It's not like there is a rival platform launching over the holiday. Wii U should see some growth but I'd imagine Sony would rather use the PS3 to battle that rather than PS4. Waiting on Japan, they can focus their efforts in 'the war' where it's more challenged, in the West.

That audience won't disappear if the PS4 is released a couple of months later. THere's no pressure, the WiiU is tanking and the Xbone... well lol.

I would argue that it does matter whether the PS4 launches this year or next, and that the Wii U does indeed pose a threat in terms of competition and marketshare. First, I'd like to bring up that Nintendo hardware always get a large boost over the holidays. Take a look at the Gamecube's sales in 2003 (the earliest data I can find on garaph), for example. Here's its sales around August:

2003-08-04 23,822
2003-08-11 26,966
2003-08-18 15,200

Not all that impressive right? Not much better than WiiU's sales now. Take a look at its sale during the holidays, that same year:

2003-12-15 95,100
2003-12-22 154,500
2003-12-29 164,500

Here's a chart to illustrate how Nintendo consoles get a much larger bump over the holidays (I couldn't find one for Gamecube, only the Wii):

Not to mention that even though the WiiU looks bad now, that's because the ONLY noteworthy game that was released in the past 6 months or so is Pikmin 3. In the next few months they will release: 3D Mario Land, Wii U Fit, Donkey Kong, and Zelda WW.

Now take a look at PS3's holidays numbers last year:

2012-12-10 42,976
2012-12-17 47,626
2012-12-24 53,222

These numbers will only decline in 2013. What this means is that if the only consoles on the market are the WiiU and the PS3, Sony is going to get trounced in the consoles market while the WiiU will get a second golden opportunity to gain marketshare in the console space virtually unopposed.


To my second point, Sony needs to establish a healthy PS4 install base in Japan as soon as possible, in order to get the Japanese developers on board. It's no secret that the switch to the PS3 was late last generation in Japan, and developers were slow to move to the new platform, largely because of the slow sales of the PS3 early on. In fact, it was widely rumored that FXIII was delayed partly so that the PS3's install base could grow. You can bet the same will happen for FFXV if the PS4 is released later in Japan. See this interview from 2007:

Square Enix President Yoichi Wada publicly stated that Sony needs to find a solid marketing strategy with the PS3 and stick with it. According to Reuters, when Nintendo became one of Japan's top 10 companies in June, they actually bumped Sony off the list. Wada told reporters, "Sony first unveiled the PS3 as a mighty home electronics product. Then, after some badgering from game companies, it shifted the position of the console closer to a game machine ... (the future of the PS3) would be tough if its marketing strategy is not straightened up."

With the competition in Japan being between the Wii and PS3, Sony's total decimation in the market isn't sitting well with third-party publishers that have major costly titles set up for the PS3 -- like Square Enix and Final Fantasy XIII. Big budget games with low install base consoles is a problem for the bottom line. Konami has said as much with Metal Gear Solid 4.

If the PS4 is released in mid to late 2014 in Japan, you can bet you'll see FFXV in Japan no earlier than December 2015. The more that the PS4 is delayed in Japan, the less incentive there is to complete titles such as Persona 5, The Last Guardian, Final Fantasy, Yakuza 6, etc.

 

[Gamespawn]

I want them to so that there's a better chance of us getting a next-gen port of Ultra SFIV this year.

 

[Zornack]

What's the 9/9 event?

 

[jiggle]

lack of jpn games at launch + lack of big jpn game announcements = crash and burn after launch

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Sony is probably pretty anxious to drive a stake through MS's heart in their home market. They would launch the PS4 in Japan this year just for that, especially since Japan has been demoted to Tier 4 or whatever for the 180 and may not even see that console in 2014 at the rate MS is going.

 

[ALBOFIGHTER]

Japan devs are not supporting ps4 right now so there's not much for them to play. If they release next year, there's a much better chance japanese games will be released.

SCEJ will have a conference in a few weeks so there will at least be a few announcements hopefully.

 

[klee123]

Since the SCEJ conference is not too far away, there may be a chance that the PS4 may be released during December.

 

[Espada]

I don't think they're going to launch in Japan this year. Sony is focusing one more important markets, especially North America and Europe. The company cannot afford to let the competition get much of an advantage in either territory. Japan is far less important. Yes, the console market hasn't really shrunk compared to last gen, but Japanese support for the PS4 is very thin, the console has almost nothing that appeals to Japanese gamers (at launch), so it'd be foolish to commit units to Japan.

At best we'll see a paper launch before the year is up.

 

[Freaky Fred]

Japan is Sony's home territory, PS4 better launch there this year!

I don't know how much the rest of you know about Japanese culture..
If you screw someone over in Japan you bring shame to yourself.

This is HUUUUUUGE!

This and "The age of Sony is done" kill me every time