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Will Star Wars:ROS bomb?

cryptoadam

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Now that DF has come and bombed, the next big one is Star Wars. Will it suffer the same dark fate and be a bomba?

Lets put it in perspective though. Bomba for Star Wars is different.

TFA made 936 domestic and 2 Billion WW
TLJ made 620 DOM and 1.3 WW

For me a bomba would be in the 500 Million range DOM and 1 Billion WW.

Solo was a complete failure the last Star Wars movie making 200 DOM and 400 WW, compared to RO which made 530 DOM and 1 Bill WW.

We can see that the mainline franchise already lost 300 Mill DOM and 700 Mill WW, a big drop. The spin offs went from 1 Bill to 400.

The movie has been rumored to be in production hell with re shoots going on as close to as the last few weeks. The leaks make it sound stupider than even Dark Fate, and Rey is being set up as the ultimate Mary Sue ready to shit on all of our past heros, especially the MENZ to show us WAMANZ.

The one big factor here is JJ is not stupid enough to shit on his main consumers and call us a bunch of misogynist trolls who hate WAMANZ. All though OTOH Disney is very woke so there is still a chance in interviews/marketing that they can piss all over Star Wars bread and butter.
 

cryptoadam

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I think it will do a billion even. Is that considered a bomb considering the Star Wars expectations?
A billion WW would have to be considered a bomb for Star Wars. Especially for Disney since so much of SW future is on this film.

Going from 2 billion to a 1 billion is losing half its money from the 1st to the 3rd movie. Thats a huge loss for Disney. And at this point I have to imagine the budget of this movie must be in the 300-400 million range. All the reshoots and reshuffling of the deck cost a lot of $$$.
 

Yoda

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I think it will do a billion even. Is that considered a bomb considering the Star Wars expectations?
For a mainline star wars episode, I suspected Disney wanted the box offices to look like:

IX > VIII (actual 1.3 billion) > VII (actual 2 billion)

And given how much LucasFilm has shit on its own fans it'll probably end up as:

VII > VIII > IX

I don't know how IX outperforms the others (remember critics "loved" VIII). Return of JJ could help, but Terminator tried that style of marketing w/James Cameron (granted as a Producer) and it didn't seem to do anything.
 
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EviLore

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Currently tracking higher than TLJ, lower than TFA:


Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Opening Weekend Range: $185 – 225 million
Domestic Total Range: $550 – 750 million
PROS:

The Star Wars revival under Disney’s era has been a massive success. The Force Awakens broke the all-time opening weekend record (at the time) with $248 million in 2015 on its way to becoming the biggest domestic release of in history with $936.7 million. Since then, Rogue One and The Last Jedi collectively generated over $1.15 billion stateside.

Billed as the grand finale to the Skywalker storyline, fans are anticipating not just the conclusion of this current trilogy, but the entire episodic saga which began in 1977. While the franchise will clearly live on through other spin-offs, Disney is positioning and marketing this as a finale event for both die hards and casual viewers alike, and more of those fans are encouraged by the return of director/writer J.J. Abrams to the franchise after his successful work to resurrect the franchise with Force Awakens.

All three trailers released this year have generated measurable excitement, driving strong social media footprints as part of our long range forecasting models. When discussing potential grosses of this magnitude, it’s important to note that expectations are volatile on a scaled level and highly dependent upon ultimately reception and sentiment. That said, the average projection across all models indicates this will be another major blockbuster for the franchise.

Early ticket sales are remarkably strong, with similarities to Rogue One and The Last Jedi‘s upfront demand landing on point with our expectations. Worth noting is that comparisons to Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame presales records aren’t particularly relevant given the different habits and trends of sales activity between the two franchises, as well as different on-sale time circumstances.
CONS:

Rise of Skywalker‘s biggest challenge will be to win back the older fan base put off by the previous two films — notably The Last Jedi with its divisive reactions. In the same breath, it will again compete with a Jumanji sequel — although this time around, Star Wars debuts after that franchise entry and doesn’t have quite as high of expectations to match relative to their respective circumstances before release two years ago.

Although largely considered a misfire simply because of its out-of-control budget, Solo: A Star Wars Story represented the exclamation point on a fear from fans that the franchise was beginning to become watered-down from the event-level storytelling expected from the brand.

Word of mouth is critical for almost any movie, but for a series where expectations are frequently sky-high, Abrams and Lucasfilm’s ability to do something fresh and simultaneously appease one of the most demanding fan bases in all of entertainment will play a pivotal role in this finale’s effort to recapture the kind of audience and box office magic it was enjoying just a few short years ago.
 

Gargus

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I couldn't care less about star wars anymore.

The last 2 movies were shit. The spinoff movies were even worse because they weren't needed at all. Solo over exposed a character I already liked and actually made me like him less. And rogue one overall was boring as a movie, but even more so because I knew exactly how it was going to end even before it started.

At this point all I want is the original trilogy on blu ray without that shitty special edition stuff. I know they said it can't be done but I'm sorry if some people can do those nice harmy releases then I refuse to believe a multi billion dollar company like disney can't do it. If they did and that and released them in theaters I'd go see them and then I'd buy the blu rays. Anything else is of no interest to me.
 

MilkyJoe

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Disney will buy more Ghost Tickets for this movie than you can possibly imagine, if they can claim it made 2 billion, then maybe artificial hype will get people to go see it.

It worked so well for Captain Marvel's DVD sales...


It won't work though, the hype for this one is fucking dead

 
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#Phonepunk#

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No it won’t bomb they are too big to fail. They will continue shitting out crap and people will line up to swallow it. If they have to pay people to see it they will.
 
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Weilthain

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Thought the movie was out now for a second going by the comments. I was about to put my shoes on and everything dammit.

If it’s a decent movie it will do great numbers, if it sucks it will still do all right.
 

SurprisedPikachu

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I think it's hard to say.. a lot of people think that since JJ took the helm again it'll be a better movie, but if the script leaks are to be believed.... it definitely sounds like the exact opposite. I will say this, I won't be seeing the movie. TFA was alright, TLJ was a joke and no one talks about Solo (which was absolutely terrible apparently).
 
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JLMC469

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Most likely higher than TLJ but significantly lower than TFA.

It will end up being a top 5 grossing film (this year).

For those wondering (saw some posts in other forums), it wont come close to Infinity War or End Games numbers.
 

#Phonepunk#

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One thing is true: If it is in any way seen as a failure by mass media then the destruction TLJ did to the franchise will be irrefutable.
 
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cryptoadam

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Interesting point, the 2nd movie of each trilogy was the lowest grossing. The 3rd always bounced back but never reached the heights of the first.

ay 25, 2018Solo: A Star Wars Story$275,000,000$84,420,489$213,767,512$393,151,347
Dec 15, 2017Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las…$317,000,000$220,009,584$620,181,382$1,316,721,747
Dec 16, 2016Rogue One: A Star Wars Story$200,000,000$155,081,681$532,177,324$1,049,102,856
Dec 18, 2015Star Wars Ep. VII: The Forc…$306,000,000$247,966,675$936,662,225$2,053,311,220
Aug 15, 2008Star Wars: The Clone Wars$8,500,000$14,611,273$35,161,554$68,695,443
May 19, 2005Star Wars Ep. III: Revenge …$115,000,000$108,435,841$380,270,577$848,998,877
May 16, 2002Star Wars Ep. II: Attack of…$115,000,000$80,027,814$310,676,740$656,695,615
May 19, 1999Star Wars Ep. I: The Phanto…$115,000,000$64,810,970$474,544,677$1,027,044,677
May 25, 1983Star Wars Ep. VI: Return of…$32,500,000$23,019,618$309,205,079$572,705,079
May 21, 1980Star Wars Ep. V: The Empire…$23,000,000$4,910,483$290,271,960$534,161,334
May 25, 1977Star Wars Ep. IV: A New Hope$11,000,000$1,554,475$460,998,007$786,598,007

Big difference here is I don't think ROS has any hooks. ROTJ had the end of the SW, you wanted to see how it ended. ROTS was finally seeing Darth Vader. ROS has nothing. Everyone knows Rey wins its a foregone conclusion.
 

D-Dude

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I was never really a huge SW fan (always more into Star Trek) but I like episode 4,5,6. I liked Episode 7.. kinda. But the rest is just barf material.

Imo TLJ ruined SW for me, and I am not even that big a fan. I will not watch it, my fiancee wants to go to Jumanji :messenger_expressionless:
 

Sterling88

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It won't beat TFA, but I'm not sure any Star Wars film is going to pull those kind of numbers. It was a perfect storm.

It'll probably end up beating TLJ though I'd imagine, there's a lot of kids and lefties out there who'll eat it up, and the hardcore Star Wars fans will probably show up just because it's Episode IX, and the Emperor is there. With how bad TLJ was, it'd be nice if people put their money where their mouth is and didn't spend cash going to watch this stuff.
 
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K1Expwy

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Han is dead, Luke is dead. The Carrie Fisher tribute already happened in TLJ. Palpatine and Lando returning is nice, but the reunion party is already over. The new heroes and new villains haven't taken hold in pop culture (like Iron Man, Joker, John Wick or other recent examples).
What's there to market to general audiences, that aren't really following the sequel trilogy? I'm not going to make predictions, but Disney must know the movie is a hard sell, even if you handwave the "fandom menace" backlash after TLJ.
 

ManaByte

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It won't beat TFA, but I'm not sure any Star Wars film is going to pull those kind of numbers. It was a perfect storm.
TFA was a once in a generation release. Sequel to ROTJ and the first new Star Wars movie in a decade. People are using that movie as a yard stick without that giant asterisk attached to it.
 

Fbh

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It won't do Avengers numbers but I think it will do fine.
JJ has, as always, pushed hard on the nostalgia aspect and I think even a lot of people who disliked TLJ will still be curious to see how it ends.

For me though it will be the first mainline Star Wars movie released since I was born that I won't watch in a theater. Disney has really killed my interest in this franchise.
I'll rent it at some point down the line
 

Space Runaway

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Even despite TLJ and Disney's McDonalds methods, the brand is still very strong. It'll do fine.

Edit: Personally though, I don't know if I feel like watching this in the theater. I intend to see it so I can close this trilogy and move on from Star Wars entirely, though perhaps I should just wait for a download... =P
 
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NickFire

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Han is dead, Luke is dead. The Carrie Fisher tribute already happened in TLJ. Palpatine and Lando returning is nice, but the reunion party is already over. The new heroes and new villains haven't taken hold in pop culture (like Iron Man, Joker, John Wick or other recent examples).
What's there to market to general audiences, that aren't really following the sequel trilogy? I'm not going to make predictions, but Disney must know the movie is a hard sell, even if you handwave the "fandom menace" backlash after TLJ.
I think I'm in the same boat as you. I'm not confident enough either way to make predictions, but cannot envision why this movie would do better than TLJ. Shit, I can't even consistently say whether I will see it before its available on PPV or HBO, or not. One minute I feel compelled to see if they right the ship on the big screen. But the next minute I fell like why waste the money, cause the story line sucks, and I'm pretty sure the people who make these movies might actually resent me for some reason?
 

#Phonepunk#

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It won't do Avengers numbers but I think it will do fine.
JJ has, as always, pushed hard on the nostalgia aspect
I’ve seen a lot of people pre-emptively saying things like “OMG if they use Duel of the Fates this will be the best movie ever” or ditto for including Anakin or other fanservices. Seems pretty reasonable that JJ would pack this with the most nostalgia bait possible.

Personally that’s all the more reason to skip it. They already revealed return of Emperor and Death Star in these trailers no doubt they are counting on luring people in with a “surprise” 1 minute long scene with Anakin or whatever. Nothing surprising in these constant rehashes.
 
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Durask

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I’ve seen a lot of people pre-emotively saying things like “OMG if they use Duel of the Fates this will be the best movie ever” or ditto for including Anakin or other fanservices. Seems pretty reasonable that JJ would pack this with the most nostalgia bait possible.
He will pack enough of that - so that people will go see it. Even if they hate it afterwards, who cares, they bought the ticket.
 
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ManaByte

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I’ve seen a lot of people pre-emotively saying things like “OMG if they use Duel of the Fates this will be the best movie ever” or ditto for including Anakin or other fanservices. Seems pretty reasonable that JJ would pack this with the most nostalgia bait possible.

Personally that’s all the more reason to skip it. They already revealed return of Emperor and Death Star in these trailers no doubt they are counting on luring people in with a “surprise” 1 minute long scene with Anakin or whatever. Nothing surprising in these constant rehashes.
Well Anakin isn't the only character from a past movie that might show up that they're hiding.
 

cryptoadam

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He will pack enough of that - so that people will go see it. Even if they hate it afterwards, who cares, they bought the ticket.
yes but to make 700, 800, 900 DOM you need people to buy 2 or 3 or 4 tickets.

If WOM is bad you won't get repeat viewings and after the huge opening it will drop like a rock. Basiclally TLJ. TLJ made 300 Mill less DOM then TFA.

I think the movie based on leaks is going to leave a sour taste in audiences mouths. SW fans will go see it, they went to see ROTS after Clones, so they will be there opening weekend. But once WOM spreads and the movie gets torn apart it won't have the same longevity as TFA. And with Jumanji there to give it competition its going to have an even harder time being relevant 3 or 4 weeks into its run.
 
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ManaByte

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yes but to make 700, 800, 900 DOM you need people to buy 2 or 3 or 4 tickets.

If WOM is bad you won't get repeat viewings and after the huge opening it will drop like a rock. Basiclally TLJ. TLJ made 300 Mill less DOM then TFA.

I think the movie based on leaks is going to leave a sour taste in audiences mouths. SW fans will go see it, they went to see ROTS after Clones, so they will be there opening weekend. But once WOM spreads and the movie gets torn apart it won't have the same longevity as TFA. And with Jumanji there to give it competition its going to have an even harder time being relevant 3 or 4 weeks into its run.
Maybe stop comparing all Star Wars movies to TFA? Again, it was a once in a generation release being the perfect storm of the sequel to ROTJ and the first Star Wars movie in ten years.
 
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cryptoadam

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Maybe stop comparing all Star Wars movies to TFA? Again, it was a once in a generation release being the perfect storm of the sequel to ROTJ and the first Star Wars movie in ten years.
Star Wars ANH made 3 Billion adjusted for inflation.

Phantom Menace made 1 Billion 20 years ago, thats about 1.5 billion adjusted for inflation.

I think we can compare. I mean that was the point of this thread to compare ROS to other SW films and figure out if its going to be a "bomb" in Star Wars sense.

I don't think it will top TFA, the 3rd movie in all trilogies never did that. Now the 3rd movies all did rebound in comparison to the 2nd. ROTJ had a slight bump, and ROTS had a bigger bump. So ROS should bump from TLJ, but I personally think TLJ killed the franchise (Solo is a good example), and the WOM on ROS is going to be bad, really bad that people will not go and see the movie mutiple times. So I say its 50/50 that the movie will do worse than TLJ.
 

#Phonepunk#

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thing is with both Jaws and the OG Star Wars, there was really nothing quite like them. so you had them filling a market that had been craving stuff since forever.

versus today where there are already 12 theatrically released SW films not including IX or the Special Editions (1-8, RO, Solo, Clone Wars, Caravan of Courage)
 
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MisterHero

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I love watching actors returning to beloved characters years and decades later. Sure, Ian Mcdiarmid played Sheev in the prequels, but he is returning as post-RotJ Sheev. He has a chance to play with both characters and I hope the script gives him that chance.

There's a far lesser chance of Hamill getting a glorious return but I continue to hold out for something.
 
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#Phonepunk#

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I love watching actors returning to beloved characters years and decades later
this is where i was at before TFA. then Han happened. then General Leia happened. then R2 under a sheet happened. then Admiral Ackbar happened. then Luke happened.

now, i fear it.

not gonna watch them ruin the Emperor.
 
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cryptoadam

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this is where i was at before TFA. then Han happened. then General Leia happened. then R2 under a sheet happened. then Admiral Ackbar happened. then Luke happened.

now, i fear it.

not gonna watch them ruin the Emperor.
Welp if you consider Rey killing the Emperor, maybe one of the most powerful Sith ever as ruined thats how they will do it. It took Luke and Vader to kill him, while technically they didn't kill him, and Yoda nor Mace could beat him either. But Rey can of course because she has the power of WAMANZ.
 

#Phonepunk#

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just the thought of it from a non spoiler POV is funny.

"I've waited thirty years! I have discovered the secret to surviving a moon-sized explosion in the vacuum of space! I have conscripted a secret army of Death Star Destroyers and hidden them in the Unknown Regions, carefully planning my return! I have discovered the most powerful force users of all time and intend on using them to accomplish my nefarious goals! I have discovered the secret of immortality and with it, I will --"

*dies*
 

sol_bad

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I haven't read the script leaks and don't want to know what they are.
But when it comes to Star Wars, if you are upset about the script, it just means that they didn't do what you wanted them to do with the characters.
That doesn't make it a bad film.
 

KingGhidorah

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