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Will Star Wars:ROS bomb?

Stiflers Mom

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Why do they bring Lando back now, why not in the first film so he can have a buddy mission with his mate Han.
Because that would have been awesome and respectful to the characters and the audience that those two dudes were childhood heroes to.

But no, we need to shit on all these people and kill them off instead, because "SUBVERT EXPECTATIONS".

It's hard to comprehend how you can fuck up something as easy as creating movies after the OT.

TFA did some things right, though.
It just needed a lot more focus on the old guard, reuniting Han, Luke, Leia and Lando.
 

#Phonepunk#

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OT characters must be keep away from each other as much as possible seems to be the rule.

Which is just fucking stupid. It should be the other way around.

New characters follow the same rule too! Rey met Poe in the last scene of film 2 out of 3.
 
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cryptoadam

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It will probably do a billion worldwide, but if it bombed that would be one hell of a news week.
If you mean 1 Billion total thats a bomb for Star Wars. 1 billion WW + 500+ Domestic wouldn't be a bomb, but would be pretty much TLJ.

But ya 1 billion total BO is bomba for the final star wars movie in the 12 part series.
 

Super Mario

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Bombing is an extreme exaggeration. It is Star Wars main trilogy.

I do think there is a big chunk of the public waiting to hear if it is good though. There's nothing scarier to some people than seeing a movie that hasn't been approved by the hive-mind
 

gatti-man

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If you add in marketing and reshoots and production costs it can be between 300-400.

From TFA Wiki

With a production budget of $306 million,[2] plus $175 million for marketing, printing and advertising costs,

And as far bombing I am talking in relative terms. The movie will make money and have a big opening, but its Star Wars not Gemini Man we are talking about. Disney is not looking for 750 Mill or 1 Bill, they are expecting 1.5 billion or more. We are talking about bomb in relation to being a Star Wars film. If it under performs compared to TLJ there is no way Disney will be happy.
Yes but that’s not being sincere. Marketing is always separate. Regardless it’s not bombing and who knows what Disney expects out of a mainline Star Wars. Rian still has his trilogy so I’d assume they were happy with TLJ’s profit.

it’s not going to bomb. Period. And saying“bomb is relative” makes the conversation impossible because you’ll just move the goal posts to whatever you want to suit your agenda.
 

cryptoadam

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Yes but that’s not being sincere. Marketing is always separate. Regardless it’s not bombing and who knows what Disney expects out of a mainline Star Wars. Rian still has his trilogy so I’d assume they were happy with TLJ’s profit.

it’s not going to bomb. Period. And saying“bomb is relative” makes the conversation impossible because you’ll just move the goal posts to whatever you want to suit your agenda.
I am the op, and the point of this thread was to discuss if its a relative bomb. Thats why I made the thread. If SW will bomb relative to what a SW movie should make. Anything below TLJ to me would be considered a "bomb" in context of this being the last SW movie wrapping up the entire 9 part series.

And marketing is always included. Dark Fate is being called a bomba and they include marketing in the budget. It would be similarly insincere to count the entire BO as money made by the movie when studios don't get all the money. Disney doesn't get 100% of the 2 billion TFA made, they get most of the opening weekend, but then it drops, and internationally they are getting even less. I think from China they get something like 25-50% of the take.

Do you really think Disney would be happy with the series ending with its last movie making 1 Billion WW? 400 Million Domestic? I highly doubt it.
 

BadBurger

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If you mean 1 Billion total thats a bomb for Star Wars. 1 billion WW + 500+ Domestic wouldn't be a bomb, but would be pretty much TLJ.

But ya 1 billion total BO is bomba for the final star wars movie in the 12 part series.
The Last Jedi made less than a billion worldwide and domestically respectively, but still made a billion (1.3bn) collectively, which is fine IMO: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2708702721/

It says the budget was $317bn, then the common rule of thumb is to double that for advertising (though I've never heard or read that from anyone who actually works at a high level of film production), and they still made a lot of money. I can't imagine Disney still thinks a Star Wars movie is ever going to make as much as The Force Awakens again.
 
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#Phonepunk#

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it’s not going to bomb. Period. And saying“bomb is relative” makes the conversation impossible because you’ll just move the goal posts to whatever you want to suit your agenda.
or you could be flexible and accept that words might have different definitions for different people. if you want to say "bomb" is only about financial success that is your right but don't act like it is the only definition. only thing making conversation impossible would be a refusal to accept other people might have different definitions for a word.
 
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cryptoadam

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The Last Jedi made less than a billion worldwide and domestically respectively, but still made a billion (1.3bn) collectively, which is fine IMO: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2708702721/

It says the budget was $317bn, then the common rule of thumb is to double that for advertising (though I've never heard or read that from anyone who actually works at a high level of film production), and they still made a lot of money. I can't imagine Disney still thinks a Star Wars movie is ever going to make as much as The Force Awakens again.
Yes but keep in mind that Disney does not get 100% of the BO money. Theaters get some too, and international takes is even less than domestic. My understanding is that opening weekend is something like 90% and then it falls more and more each week, averages to around 50% or so. Internationally its something like 35% or so.

So if SW makes 500 Dom, Disney gets probably around 250-300 Mill, and 500 WW, thats closer to 200 Mill, total take is probably about 500 Million, not 1 Billion. Just an example.

Also with Disney+ launching I can only imagine the $$$ that will be lost from BR sales and cable licensing. They may or may not make that up with Disney subs but that will be harder to tell. Whats better 20$ a BR or 5$ a month for streaming?

Disney paid what 4 billion to Lucas? They must of spent another 2 billion on all the SW movies + marketing costs. So 5 billi on the low end, 6 billion on the high end. Have they made 5 billion off all the movies? Keep in mind they don't get 100% of the BO take and Solo lost money for Disney.

Merchandising and theme parks are a different equation, as well as TV shows on Disney+ so in the long run they will make money from the IP, but if ROS doesn't have a big BO they may very well have lost money on the Lucas deal based on films alone.
 

Dada55000

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The Last Jedi made less than a billion worldwide and domestically respectively, but still made a billion (1.3bn) collectively, which is fine IMO: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2708702721/

It says the budget was $317bn, then the common rule of thumb is to double that for advertising (though I've never heard or read that from anyone who actually works at a high level of film production), and they still made a lot of money. I can't imagine Disney still thinks a Star Wars movie is ever going to make as much as The Force Awakens again.
rule of thumb is that blockbuster marketing caps at 200 million, but the other rule of thumb is that the number on Box Office Mojo should be halved to account for theater take and variations of it per each foreign market (which doesn't account for situations where eg takes are slanted/lopsided for domestic and frontloaded in the early weeks, so the studio gets more of the money)

if RoS cost 450 mill all things combined, it making less than a billion is dangerously close to not making any real money on the movie, and 800 mill would actually be a loss (unless the domestic/foreign breakdown results in a favourable split for Disney)
 

cryptoadam

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Interesting if you do a rough addition of all the movies since Disney it comes out to 4.8 billion (rough), could be rounded up to 5 Billion lets just say. If they get 55% of that we are talking about 2.75 Billion.

Disney paid Lucas 4 billion right?
5 movies x 300 Million = 1.5 billion (low end estimates of cost of movies+marketing)

Right now it doesn't look like Disney is coming out ahead on these movies.

Now you can argue the licensing, merchandise, theme parks, TV shows, Disney+ subs, old movies can recoup those costs and that would be true. But if you break it down Disney really needed to make more SW movies and TLJ+Solo having such negative effects has really hurt Disney. Trust me if Solo didn't bomb we would have the Fett movie, the Obi Wan movie, heck even a Mace movie or a movie about that 1 kid in the Yoda training scene in AOC. Instead they had to pull back and slow down. If ROS is not a huge hit especially with audiences Disney is not going to be in a good place with SW. And toys are good and all but I don't think toys sell as much and there has not been a good SW game in forever.
 
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BadBurger

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Yes but keep in mind that Disney does not get 100% of the BO money. Theaters get some too, and international takes is even less than domestic. My understanding is that opening weekend is something like 90% and then it falls more and more each week, averages to around 50% or so. Internationally its something like 35% or so.

So if SW makes 500 Dom, Disney gets probably around 250-300 Mill, and 500 WW, thats closer to 200 Mill, total take is probably about 500 Million, not 1 Billion. Just an example.

Also with Disney+ launching I can only imagine the $$$ that will be lost from BR sales and cable licensing. They may or may not make that up with Disney subs but that will be harder to tell. Whats better 20$ a BR or 5$ a month for streaming?

Disney paid what 4 billion to Lucas? They must of spent another 2 billion on all the SW movies + marketing costs. So 5 billi on the low end, 6 billion on the high end. Have they made 5 billion off all the movies? Keep in mind they don't get 100% of the BO take and Solo lost money for Disney.

Merchandising and theme parks are a different equation, as well as TV shows on Disney+ so in the long run they will make money from the IP, but if ROS doesn't have a big BO they may very well have lost money on the Lucas deal based on films alone.
I was aware that studios / distributors negotiate for the take of ticket sales, and that it seems to vary greatly by movie. I vaguely remember reading an article about Disney getting 100% of ticket sales for x number of weeks, but I can't remember if that was for some Star Wars movie or one of the Avengers.
 

Kadayi

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Disney is going to pimp this shit to the nines. I expect them to have every shill they can buy selling JJ Abrams 'triumphant conclusion to the Skywalker Saga is a must-see' as much as humanly possible. I have zero interest in seeing it, but I dare say plenty of people will end up having to take their kids to watch it, because 'It's Star Wars!!'. I legitimately hope 'May the 4th' gets cancelled by mainstream new media at some point because that shit is done.
 
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Belmonte

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I will be very surprised if the movie bomb. Probably not.

But the gains Disney are losing in merchandise, games, their park must be gigantic and hard to put on paper. IMO, no matter how much money they will get with ROS, it could be much more. TLJ broke the magic of the franchise for many people, the kind who would go 3-4 times to the movie theater and contribute to the hype.
 
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#Phonepunk#

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i don't know, i've been thinking about Luke again, and it's just really disheartening. not only was his character just shittily written, he was an asshole towards Rey, he bothsides-ed the Jedi, he ended his life taunting his nephew, just a complete and total bitter loser through to the end. i get what he was going for but it was all so forced, so cheap. the only way the last film works is if you follow a specific train of thought in Rian's round head.

Rian did such a shitty job writing his character. he is supposed to be "cut off from the force" yet is going around making proclamations of "what a true Jedi would do" and force exploding huts and stuff. he forgets how to understand his friend Chewbacca. he somehow ignores his sister's coma, a person he has been shown to have strong force sensitivity to, yet can pull off dumb, "impossible" parlor tricks (keep in mind he is cut off from the force!). he supposedly rejected the Jedi order yet decided to off himself on a significant planet for the Jedi, leaving behind a map, and he also guarded the "Sacred Jedi Text" (come up with an actual name next time, Rian) holy books for some reason, despite being bitter and over the Jedi. when Yoda tries to destroy the books, seconds before Luke does the same, he instantly decides the texts are worth saving, for some reason, cos Rian wanted Yoda to shame Luke as well.

it makes all the sense of someone excommunicated from Catholicisim deciding to live in the Vatican and keep watch over the Shroud of Turin and dress like the Pope until people show up to visit. which is it makes no sense at all. he tells Rey "I've only seen this power once before, it didn't scare me enough then" was he saying he should have killed Kylo? and he ends the movie saying thew same thing, "my nephew can go to hell" "i won't save your soul'" this isn't character development! Kylo is a bad egg and even his mom says he is gone "go ahead and kill my son" she might as well tell Luke. we supposed to root for this guy?

what a way to set up a saga finale. fuck Rian Johnson forever for destroying this series. gonna skip IX and any films i see after TLJ will be through pirated means.
 
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Gargus

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TFA was a good, general sci-fi flick. As a SW property, utter flop.
I didn't even like it as that.

I hated how all the characters were over the top cliche and desperate to force everyone to see what they were instead of just letting the characters come out on their own. Like Poe and the black guy are supposed to be enemies but within 90 seconds they are both practically yelling in the camera "see were super best life long friends now! Dont you see how awesome of friends we are? DO YOU FUCKING SEE??!!!" Everyone was a personification of good, bad, comedic relief, etc.

And nothing felt exciting or interesting. It all just plodded a long as if I was on a guided tour and being rushed through it with someone in a hurry just saying ok look at this, now look at that, come we dont have all day.

I thought the imperials were a joke. Sure they big ships and bases but the army itself always seemed small and not very threatening. And I guess it's my own fault but I got excited for captain phantasma but she was insignificant. And all the cameos were annoying because they pulled me out of the movie.

Even as just scifi I thought it was shit, it was just really pretty shit. Far as scifi I have a better time watching space hunter adventures in the forbidden zone, or hardware, or hell even forbidden planet.
 

Stiflers Mom

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i don't know, i've been thinking about Luke again, and it's just really disheartening. not only was his character just shittily written, he was an asshole towards Rey, he bothsides-ed the Jedi, he ended his life taunting his nephew, just a complete and total bitter loser through to the end. i get what he was going for but it was all so forced, so cheap. the only way the last film works is if you follow a specific train of thought in Rian's round head.

Rian did such a shitty job writing his character. he is supposed to be "cut off from the force" yet is going around making proclamations of "what a true Jedi would do" and force exploding huts and stuff. he forgets how to understand his friend Chewbacca. he somehow ignores his sister's coma, a person he has been shown to have strong force sensitivity to, yet can pull off dumb, "impossible" parlor tricks (keep in mind he is cut off from the force!). he supposedly rejected the Jedi order yet decided to off himself on a significant planet for the Jedi, leaving behind a map, and he also guarded the "Sacred Jedi Text" (come up with an actual name next time, Rian) holy books for some reason, despite being bitter and over the Jedi. when Yoda tries to destroy the books, seconds before Luke does the same, he instantly decides the texts are worth saving, for some reason, cos Rian wanted Yoda to shame Luke as well.

it makes all the sense of someone excommunicated from Catholicisim deciding to live in the Vatican and keep watch over the Shroud of Turin and dress like the Pope until people show up to visit. which is it makes no sense at all. he tells Rey "I've only seen this power once before, it didn't scare me enough then" was he saying he should have killed Kylo? and he ends the movie saying thew same thing, "my nephew can go to hell" "i won't save your soul'" this isn't character development! Kylo is a bad egg and even his mom says he is gone "go ahead and kill my son" she might as well tell Luke. we supposed to root for this guy?

what a way to set up a saga finale. fuck Rian Johnson forever for destroying this series. gonna skip IX and any films i see after TLJ will be through pirated means.
This! So much!
They fucked up Luke to the 100.
 

BadBurger

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Since Disney revenue popped up, I thought I'd mention these two articles that popped in my news aggregator:



Edit: it looks like bloomberg.com is being testy with the linking, but it's the correct URL

The first discusses figures discussed in their quarterly earnings call. They mention $19.1bn in revenue for the quarter, up from $14.3bn during the same quarter last year. Unfortunately the article makes no mention of any reported profits for this quarter, only that in the same quarter last year (in which the revenue was $14.3bn) they posted $2.32bn in profits. I suppose they either post profits at a later date, or the writer at the verge just neglected to report it.

It also mentions that studios revenues for the quarter “increased 52 percent to $3.3 billion", on the backs of the films The Lion King, Toy Story 4 and Aladdin.

The second article is mostly just quoting CEO Bob Iger and Marvel Studios head Kevin Feige being hype men for the future of Disney and Disney+, but it mentioned several things I found surprising:
  • Just prior to the announcement of Disney+'s various productions to Wall Street analysts, ESPN+ actually had 2m subscribers but was in the black - not turning any profits
  • Also at the same time, Hulu has 25m subscribers (I had no idea that many people actually paid for Hulu) but was "hemorrhaging cash". I find this interesting because Disney and its partners own much of the IP and distribution rights of the flagship shows. So how did they screw that up so badly?
  • The recent announcement of the Disney+ library impressed analysts and investors so much that Disney's share price jumped 13%, and according to them the consensus is now that they will "easily" reach their goal of 90m subscribers by 2024. However, Disney+ is not expected to turn any profit until then. So they're projecting that it will lose them money, or make none at in the best circumstances, for four years
 
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#Phonepunk#

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This! So much!
They fucked up Luke to the 100.
And now he’s the first person to die from using the force! So he’s a cautionary tale! Even more pathetic.

That’s one thing people overlook. Rian fucked the force itself. Now, using the force requires physical effort, you can die from using it.

“The effort would kill him” is some bullshit. Sorry Yoda, “do or do not” & “size matters not” no longer applies. It takes physical effort, apparently. Make sure you are strong enough before you use the force or you could injure yourself!
 
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oagboghi2

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I haven't read the script leaks and don't want to know what they are.
But when it comes to Star Wars, if you are upset about the script, it just means that they didn't do what you wanted them to do with the characters.
That doesn't make it a bad film.
You already have your defense for this movie in your head and we are still a month away
 

Manus

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I tell you what's crazy. Compared to TLJ I haven't seen that many trailers for it at all. Granted I only watch the NFL Network and live sports. Still even on Monday Night Football which is on ESPN I haven't seen any trailers.
 

oagboghi2

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And you already have your defense for hating it and we are still a month away. Your point is?
My point is youve already decided this movie is good and you’re ready to defend it against the “haters”, (or whatever term the media decides to call anyone who dares criticizes a Disney Star Wars movie.)

I have no such issue. I’ll praise it if it good. I just highly doubt it will be.
 

ManaByte

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This movie is a giant mess.
there is an article too
1. They don't do public test screenings of Star Wars movies. They don't even do internal Disney test screenings outside of the execs.
2. CosmicBookNews is a garbage site that just makes up bullshit.

Hell the only time a Star Wars movie screening internally was a "disaster" was the pre-reshoots version of Rogue One.
 
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#Phonepunk#

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Hell the only time a Star Wars movie screening internally was a "disaster" was the pre-reshoots version of Rogue One.
well the first SW had a disasterous screening, but people didn't find out about that for decades. plus we have all seen the Phantom Menace documentary with "I may have gone too far". certainly with internal things like that they aren't going to come out and say it happened before the movie comes out. usually it is years before you find out.

Rogue One was a special case because they straight up fired two directors and KK had to give a reason for that. ROS has already been through two directors, much like that movie, and they kicked Trevorrow to the curb due to creative differences, so they've already used that excuse. time to go down guns blazing.
 
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ManaByte

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well the first SW had a disasterous screening, but people didn't find out about that for decades. plus we have all seen the Phantom Menace documentary with "I may have gone too far". certainly with internal things like that they aren't going to come out and say it happened before the movie comes out. usually it is years before you find out.

Rogue One was a special case because they straight up fired two directors and KK had to give a reason for that. ROS has already been through two directors, much like that movie, and they kicked Trevorrow to the curb due to creative differences, so they've already used that excuse. time to go down guns blazing.
No director was fired from Rogue One. Tony Gilroy did the reshoots, but that's identical to what happened on Edward's Godzilla.

But someone very important at Disney HATED the pre-reshoots version.