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Wkd BO 11•25-27•16 - Disney not-a-Princess says 'aloha!' to not-Harry Potter

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Violence Jack

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We really didn't need another Bad Santa movie. I honestly thought Bleed for This was going to do decent numbers, but it bombed big time. Maybe people just don't like Miles Teller or something?
 

Lord Frieza

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Feb 11, 2016
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I still really need to see Arrival - it's like pulling teeth getting some of my friends to see anything other than the big blockbusters. =/

Can't wait to see Moana as well.

As for Fantastic Beasts, I'm glad to see it with a decent hold.. but I really cannot imagine these are the numbers WB wanted. The Potter franchise was a juggernaut, and this new film doesn't really reflect that in the BO. Considering four more films are inbound, and this movies cost $180mil to make, they need to do better marketing the sequel IMO.

Isn't this only the second week? It's going to make real bank by the end of its run. I would think WB couldn't realistically expect it to perform at the level of a proper Potter.
 

Lord Frieza

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I think next year Thor will do a bit better than the first two, Guardians will be big (900 m?), and Spidey will be big as well (800-900 m). But only if the quality at least is in line with the preceding MCU highlights. I think Guardians will see the biggest gain, people still talk about the first one and it seems to fare well with non-superhero audiences as well. Spidey does have 3 shitty films before it, so I can see that one needing a bit convincing, though Iron Man and Civil War help that film a lot. Thor 3 I am not sure what to expect.

DC I am hesitant to predict. Nobody knows WW over here (heavily anecdotal) so I am not sure she is popular in the EU? Still, that didn't stop some other recent superhero films so who knows (most of the MCU, for example). Furthermore, MoS and BvS were not a good look but Batfleck and the Flash and it being the DC alternative to the Avengers probably will make JL a big success. I assume WB's marketing will be as on point as it has been this year.

Anyways, next year will remain a very successful year for superheroes in my opinion. I feel people are tired of origin stories but not tired enough to entirely skip them (Dr Strange) and most upcoming films aren't origins anymore, allowing for more varying plotlines.

(and almost seriously: the Fast series has basically become a superhero franchise as well and next year has Fast 8)

I have a hard time believing a lot of Europe doesn't know Wonder Woman. They probably don't know the details of the character (which I would say the vast majority of people don't), but know who WW actually is? Way too iconic of a character for me to buy her being totally unknown like Strange or Guardians were, for instance.
 

GAMEPROFF

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Apr 15, 2013
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I have a hard time believing a lot of Europe doesn't know Wonder Woman. They probably don't know the details of the character (which I would say the vast majority of people don't), but know who WW actually is? Way too iconic of a character for me to buy her being totally unknown like Strange or Guardians were, for instance.
Trust me, we know shit and the people who will now post stuff about the TV show are laughable.
 

Schlorgan

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Mar 16, 2016
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Got my tickets for Rogue One for the Friday. Pretty excited. I'm still not sure it'll break $1 billion WW (maybe $950m-$975m).

I can see it getting a higher RT score than TFA (maybe 95), but I can also see it going as low as 82-83. It's kind of a wild card; if I had to pick one of those predictions and stick with it I wouldn't feel comfortable with either.
 

GAMEPROFF

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I mean, I don't really buy that, but I'm not European or anything.
Buy it. I bet high money that the only group of people outside our nerd popculture bubble who know about Wonder Woman are most likely feminists (this sounds somehow wrong but isnt intended rude - I just think that this group knows the most about strong female characters)


That said, this was before BvS, people know now about her and have most likely googled her and did their research.
 

Discotheque

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Oct 5, 2009
51,294
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Buy it. I bet high money that the only group of people outside our nerd popculture bubble who know about Wonder Woman are most likely feminists (this sounds somehow wrong but isnt intended rude - I just think that this group knows the most about strong female characters)


That said, this was before BvS, people know now about her and have most likely googled her and did their research.

Old people know about her too actually thanks to that Lynda Carter tv series. Same goes for Hulk
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Aug 7, 2013
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Got my tickets for Rogue One for the Friday. Pretty excited. I'm still not sure it'll break $1 billion WW (maybe $950m-$975m).

I can see it getting a higher RT score than TFA (maybe 95), but I can also see it going as low as 82-83. It's kind of a wild card; if I had to pick one of those predictions and stick with it I wouldn't feel comfortable with either.

That's really not going to happen with Gareth Edwards at the helm.

Aim for a mid 70 rt score.
 

guek

Banned
Apr 27, 2011
18,685
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Do we think Dr. Strange will hit 700 WW when all is said and done?
I think it'll get fairly close but fall short. It's tracking below Winter Soldier which only made $35M DOM more after its 4th weekend. I don't think Strange has $85M left in the tank worldwide unless it has yet to open in a major market I'm unaware of. It'll beat The Dank World and break $650M for sure though.
 

Lord Frieza

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Feb 11, 2016
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Buy it. I bet high money that the only group of people outside our nerd popculture bubble who know about Wonder Woman are most likely feminists (this sounds somehow wrong but isnt intended rude - I just think that this group knows the most about strong female characters)


That said, this was before BvS, people know now about her and have most likely googled her and did their research.

In America, she's never been highly popular but as far as an identity, almost everyone you'd go up to would know what Wonder Woman refers to if you were to say it to them (even if they probably know nothing at all about the character's backstory). It's been in the collective conscious through various marketing for decades, even if her overall representation in mainstream media hasn't been on par with other icons. At least this is true in America. It's true, though, that her representation has been way less in media, though, as other comic icons, that may have affected her international mind space.

Regardless, though, I think WW is actually going to end up being pretty huge.
 

BumRush

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I think it'll get fairly close but fall short. It's tracking below Winter Soldier which only made $35M DOM more after its 4th weekend. I don't think Strange has $85M left in the tank worldwide unless it has yet to open in a major market I'm unaware of. It'll beat The Dank World and break $650M for sure though.

I believe it still has to open in Japan, although that's probably only ~$10M or so (unless they eat up the magic aspect)
 

kswiston

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Mar 25, 2005
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No one posted it yesterday, but Disney underestimated their weekend takes.

Moana's actuals increased $1.1M to $56.6M
Doctor Strange's actuals increased $370k to $13.7M

Fantastic Beasts was pretty much on the money. Allied was overestimated by $300k. Arrival underestimated by $200k. Trolls went up $300k.

Almost Christmas has the biggest overestimate I have ever seen for a wide release. The estimate was $7.6M. The weekend actual was $5.7M, down 25%. Someone messed something up on that one.



As for today. Back to reality. Rth had both Moana and Fantastic Beasts at $2.2-2.3M for Monday. That's actually not bad though for Fantastic Beasts post Thanksgiving.
 

BumRush

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$2,331,622 for Moana on Monday (per BOM)...which feels heavy but not surprising given kids are back in school.
 

Toparaman

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Feb 20, 2013
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Got my tickets for Rogue One for the Friday. Pretty excited. I'm still not sure it'll break $1 billion WW (maybe $950m-$975m).

I can see it getting a higher RT score than TFA (maybe 95), but I can also see it going as low as 82-83. It's kind of a wild card; if I had to pick one of those predictions and stick with it I wouldn't feel comfortable with either.

The dialogue in the trailers has been really clunky and self-serious. In fact the movie seems kind of dour. Big turn-off for critics these days when it comes to escapist fare. Predicting an RT in the 70s.
 

Tobor

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Sep 15, 2006
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The idea that Wonder Woman, Black Panther and Captain Marvel could all 'underperform' doesn't bear thinking about.

If they do we'll be getting Adventures of White Guy #217 from now until the Sun itself burns out.

Why would we be worried about Black Panther or Captain Marvel? BP is locked in with that huge Civil War intro and as for CM? Kevin Feige will take care of it.

WW is the wild card. Trailer looked ok but she can't act to save her life.
 

Culex

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We now live in a world where Disney movies are carrying the profit lost from ESPN.
 

jett

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Mahvel movies have no chance at bombing for the foreseeable future. Their success is guaranteed.
 

Ross61

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Why would we be worried about Black Panther or Captain Marvel? BP is locked in with that huge Civil War intro and as for CM? Kevin Feige will take care of it.

WW is the wild card. Trailer looked ok but she can't act to save her life.

Gal Gadot's doing just fine for what's being she's being asked for.
 

kswiston

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Mahvel movies have no chance at bombing for the foreseeable future. Their success is guaranteed.

I wonder how many consecutive successes they will manage before missing one.

Incredible Hulk was a miss before the actual MCU was much more than a couple of cameos and name drops, but since Iron Man 2, they are 12 for 12. If they make it through their currently announced slate, that's 20 films straight.
 

Tobor

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I wonder how many consecutive successes they will manage before missing one.

Incredible Hulk was a miss before the actual MCU was much more than a couple of cameos and name drops, but since Iron Man 2, they are 12 for 12. If they make it through their currently announced slate, that's 20 films straight.

I was a little nervous about Inhumans, but it got moved to tv.
 

BumRush

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I wonder how many consecutive successes they will manage before missing one.

Incredible Hulk was a miss before the actual MCU was much more than a couple of cameos and name drops, but since Iron Man 2, they are 12 for 12. If they make it through their currently announced slate, that's 20 films straight.

I really don't see any of the announced movies being an outright dud, either. If anything, the quality has only gone up as of late (with winter soldier, guardians, etc being far better than the original MCU work in my opinion)
 

vinnygambini

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Ultron and Civil War are worse than their predecessors though.

The only sequel that improves on the original film in the MCU is Winter Soldier.

Again, my personal opinion.
 

broncobuster

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Apr 19, 2014
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I'd say First Avenger didn't do great

I am curious to see how it'd do if released today. None of the comic films that year made a huge impact. It did worse than Thor and you'd think Captain America would be one of the stronger brands Marvel Studios had access to.

Anecdotally, that year I mostly heard X-Men First Class is surprisingly good, Green Lantern sucks, and eh on Thor and Cap. There was skepticism about Avengers before it became a huge hit.
 

guek

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Ultron and Civil War are worse than their predecessors though.

The only sequel that improves on the original film in the MCU is Winter Soldier.

Again, my personal opinion.

The average quality of the MCU is continuing to rise though.

Phase 1
Iron Man
Incredible Hulk
Iron Man 2
Thor
First Avenger
Avengers

Phase 2
Iron Man 3
Thor 2: Mjolnir and Company
Winter Soldier
Guardians of the Galaxy
Age of Ultron
Ant-Man

Phase 3
Civil War
Dr. Strange

I can't be the only one who thinks Phase 2 was much better than Phase 1. Civil War and Strange are very solid starts to Phase 3.
 

kswiston

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I'd say First Avenger didn't do great

Paramount/Marvel were happy with the result when the film came out.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-shocker-captain-america-235464

The foreign market for Superhero films wasn't there in 2011.


Ultron and Civil War are worse than their predecessors though.

The only sequel that improves on the original film in the MCU is Winter Soldier.

Again, my personal opinion.

Even if you prefer Winter Soldier (I think I do as well), Civil War fares pretty well when compared to third Superhero films.
 

BumRush

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Ultron and Civil War are worse than their predecessors though.

The only sequel that improves on the original film in the MCU is Winter Soldier.

Again, my personal opinion.

I don't disagree with your statement, but I'm referring to the average quality. I enjoyed winter soldier more, but civil war is still one of the better MCU films.
 

vinnygambini

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Even if you prefer Winter Soldier (I think I do as well), Civil War fares pretty well when compared to third Superhero films.

When compared to third Superhero films in the series, I would agree with that premise. Personally though, the editing in the film detracts from the whole viewing experience and as such, makes it an unpleasant experience on my end.

And separately to both BumRush & guek points, yes I agree that the quality of the films continue to rise with each passing Phase.
 

CaviarMeths

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The dialogue in the trailers has been really clunky and self-serious. In fact the movie seems kind of dour. Big turn-off for critics these days when it comes to escapist fare. Predicting an RT in the 70s.

There's plenty of love for more serious, dour films. They just have to be competently made.

The clunky dialogue will likely be an issue though.
 

Tobor

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Paramount/Marvel were happy with the result when the film came out.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-shocker-captain-america-235464

The foreign market for Superhero films wasn't there in 2011.




Even if you prefer Winter Soldier (I think I do as well), Civil War fares pretty well when compared to third Superhero films.

Not to mention they were selling a hero named Captain America in foreign markets where the US was seen negatively. First Avenger did really well given the multiple hurdles they had to overcome.

She is acting.

If you say so!
 

Busty

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Aug 26, 2006
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Mahvel movies have no chance at bombing for the foreseeable future. Their success is guaranteed.

Guaranteed?! There are no guarantees in life and certainly none in business of show.

Showbiz is cyclical and no one wins forever.

*takes off glasses Caruso style*

Not even Marvel.

It isn't about Marvel missing a beat, it's about what they do when they miss a beat.

I wonder how many consecutive successes they will manage before missing one.

If the 5/10 Doctor Strange can knock it out of the park (
bringing characters back to life with time manipulation is the is the tiny pin prick hole that's going to let all the air out of the MCU
) then they really do feel bullet proof.
 

Lord Frieza

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Why would we be worried about Black Panther or Captain Marvel? BP is locked in with that huge Civil War intro and as for CM? Kevin Feige will take care of it.

WW is the wild card. Trailer looked ok but she can't act to save her life.

If Suicide Squad can make nearly a billion dollars, I think the odds are good for WW.
 

BumRush

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Guaranteed?! There are no guarantees in life and certainly none in business of show.

Showbiz is cyclical and no one wins forever.

*takes off glasses Caruso style*

Not even Marvel.

It isn't about Marvel missing a beat, it's about what they do when they miss a beat.



If the 5/10 Doctor Strange can knock it out of the park (
bringing characters back to life with time manipulation is the is the tiny pin prick hole that's going to let all the air out of the MCU
) then they really do feel bullet proof.

The thing is, your 5/10 opinion of strange is counter to how general audiences and critics felt about it. As far as that group is concerned, it wasn't mediocre, it was a homerun.
 

Busty

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The thing is, your 5/10 opinion of strange is counter to how general audiences and critics felt about it. As far as that group is concerned, it wasn't mediocre, it was a homerun.

If they enjoyed it then that's fair enough but the spoiler plot point isn't a subjective point of view, it is objective.

The ability to
bring people back from the dead
completely removes the stakes from any given situation in the MCU. Oh no,
Tony Stark has died..., don't worry, Doc Strange will bring him back to life no problem at all
.

It's the ending of Star Trek Into Darkness all over again.
 

Chamber

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Jan 31, 2006
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Buy it. I bet high money that the only group of people outside our nerd popculture bubble who know about Wonder Woman are most likely feminists (this sounds somehow wrong but isnt intended rude - I just think that this group knows the most about strong female characters)


That said, this was before BvS, people know now about her and have most likely googled her and did their research.

Man, I forgot how funny this thread can be.
 

BumRush

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If they enjoyed it then that's fair enough but the spoiler plot point isn't a subjective point of view, it is objective.

The ability to
bring people back from the dead
completely removes the stakes from any given situation in the MCU. Oh no,
Tony Stark has died..., don't worry, Doc Strange will bring him back to life no problem at all
.

It's the ending of Star Trek Into Darkness all over again.

A) he didn't bring back Tilda and B) at the end they set it up that he doesn't feel he's ready to wield that power right now.

I see your point - and tend to agree that
bringing people back from the dead
in a series is a weak plot device, but it's certainly not established that he can use it all the time or has to.
 

Busty

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A) he didn't bring back Tilda and B) at the end they set it up that he doesn't feel he's ready to wield that power right now.

I see your point - and tend to agree that
bringing people back from the dead
in a series is a weak plot device, but it's certainly not established that he can use it all the time or has to.

That's even worse as it doesn't obey the rules of the universe that they literally just set up. The idea that he's 'not ready to wield the power' is an even weaker plot device as it is no different from a 'promise not to use your time travel powers' like Hiro from Heroes back in the day.

If they are dealing with life and death, the ultimate decision in life surely, and the
ability to bring anyone back from the dead
(which in and of itself suggests
there is no God in the MCU
, never mind) they need more than a "when you're ready" especially as he's already
brought a co-star back from the dead
.
 
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