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Wkd BO 12•02-04•16 - Hana hou for Moana, no more da kine competition

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vinnygambini

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Given X-Men: First Class's reported budget of $160M, that entry didn't do much either for FOX but when it's taken as a whole, with home entertainment and sold as a package with other franchise entries to the likes of Netflix, Hulu, FX, etc. - that's the money maker.
 

guek

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Apr 27, 2011
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Same budget as Suicide Squad. Everyone was on its ass for being such a failure in the start, and for not breaking even, needing 800m+ to do so and more yadda yadda. Don't see those dudes here now.
You're remembering incorrectly. Most of the BO regulars routinely pointed out that SS did not need to hit some absurd number to be profitable, and the speculation from those that did were based off of articles from the Hollywood Reporter. It's not because of some fanboy bias like you're implying. If you're going to call out a double standard, your beef is with the articles that put the $800M figure in people's heads to begin with.
 

milanbaros

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You're remembering incorrectly. Most of the BO regularly routinely pointed out that SS did not need to hit some absurd number to be profitable, and the speculation from those that did were based off of speculation articles from the Hollywood Reporter. It's not because of some fanboy bias like you're implying. If you're going to call out a double standard, your beef is with the articles that put the $800M figure in people's heads to begin with.

Then there is also the point that the film did need to make c. $800m to break even...at the cinema. Most blockbusters don't break even at the cinema alone though so it isn't actually some baseline for success.

I remember far more posts week after week referring to how silly it was that it got boring. It was almost like a defense force for the box office run of a film, which is absurd.
 

vinnygambini

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The $800M threshold the Hollywood Reporter paraded in their article was from an executive who had no relation whatsoever to the project and was just throwing a figure for the sake of it. Completely ludicrous, and many took it at face value despite explaining otherwise.
 

kswiston

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X-Men Apocalypse will make money. Probably less than Fox wanted, but the studio cut for several of the X-Films was about the same or lower on similar budgets, and we continue to get them.


I think you need to look at something like Pacific Rim or The Edge of Tomorrow for something approaching a cut off point. Both films came close enough to making money (or eventually turned a very small profit) that their studios wavered back and forth on sequels.

Code:
				(Studio Cuts are in Brackets)
Title			DOM Gross	INT Gross	CHI Gross	Studio Take	Reported Prod Budget
Pacific Rim		$102M (56)	$197M (79)	$112M (28)	$163M		$190M
Edge of Tomorrow	$100M (55)	$204M (82)	$66M (17)	$154M		$178M

Neither even covered their reported production budgets during their theatrical runs. Add the marketing campaigns, gross participation (especially for Cruise), etc to that. There is quite a bit of money to be made after the theatrical run.
 

NealMcCauley

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Allied was decent. Maybe it's because Pitt's the lead, but it felt like Robert Zemeckis was trying to make a David Fincher movie with only an okay script. There were some really good individual scenes though.
 
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X-Men Apocalypse will make money.

The reason I'm saying it won't from the theatrical run alone is because, unless I'm doing something wrong, DOFP didn't.

Their percentages were different than the ones you used (they used 51/39/25), but using your 55/40/25 rule, DOFP did (deadline numbers in parenthesis):

Domestic = 128.7MM (119.3MM)
Foreign = 159.08MM (155.11MM)
China = 29.12MM

DOFP Total revenue = 316.9MM (303.53MM)

And the costs to release the movie were:

220MM + 60MM domestic release + 70MM foreign release = 350MM

Total cost for theatrical run for DOFP = 33.1MM (46.47MM)

And that's without other costs that would be associated with theatrical releases such as over the top, residuals, and participation. Using the numbers from your chart in the previous page and the percentages above, we get the following for Apocalypse:

Domestic = 85.5MM (79.3MM)
Foreign = 107.2MM (104.5MM)
China = (30.3MM) (30.3MM)

Total revenue = 223MM (214.1MM)

I personally think the cost of release should be similar to DOFP, but let's assume it's 80% of DOFP's cost (just like its budget). The costs to release Apocalypse would be something like:

178MM + 48MM domestic release + 56MM foreign release = 282MM

Total cost for theatrical run for XMen Apocalypse = 59MM (67.9MM)

That is without counting some of those other overhead costs again. I might be doing something wrong, but that's what I came up with for the theatrical run. Again this doesn't mean they won't make money when VOD/DVD/Blu Ray comes in the picture, but from a theatrical run alone, I'm thinking they are the big loser when it comes to super hero movies this year.
 

kswiston

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It's looking like Fantastic Beasts might wrap up in the $775M range. If they can keep the budget in check and end up with the same box office consistency that the Potter films enjoyed, I think WB could get their 5 films off of that start. Ideally the next one would increase a bit rather than decrease like the Hobbit films.


Overall, 2016's domestic box office is about $400M ahead of 2015 at the same point. I think we are in good shape for a new record. Rogue One won't match the $650M that TFA grossed by Dec 31st last year, but the other films this holiday period are stronger than what we had last year. The second highest calendar gross for a single film in December 2015 after TFA was actually Mockingjay Pt 2 with $68M. After that was Daddy's Home with $65M and The Chipmunks 4 with $56M.
 

kswiston

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The reason I'm saying it won't from the theatrical run alone is because, unless I'm doing something wrong, DOFP didn't.

Snip

I agree with you. The only superhero films we know for certain made money by the end of their theatrical run were Deadpool and Civil War.

Suicide Squad, BvS, and Doctor Strange might not have been quite there if we only looked at negative costs vs box office, but all three of those would have probably made up the difference (at a minimum) from licensing, product placement, etc before they left cinemas. Tie ins for the DCEU stuff in particular were everywhere. Strange was less merch friendly.

X-Men was further away from covering those negative costs on just the box office.


Box Office Mojo uses the 55% rule for domestic box office (they have it as a disclaimer at the bottom of every weekend chart). I have also seen it in several other places. While box office cut is less variable now than it was in the 90s, we have had reports of studios strong arming exhibitors for larger cuts on some blockbusters. Most recently with The Force Awakens (where Disney's cut was said to be in excess of 60%). As such, I think 55% is a pretty good rough estimate for blockbusters.

I have seen anything from 38% to 44% for overseas. It also varies from film to film as I mentioned. As such, I just use 40% because it's easy and probably in the right ballpark.
 

MHWilliams

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why so few theaters for Incarnate?

Studio managing expectations.
“Incarnate”centers on a scientist (Aaron Eckhart) who enters the mind of an 11-year old boy to rid him of an evil spirit. The horror film is the latest offering from BH Tilt, which is trying to contain distribution costs by orchestrating more targeted marketing campaigns for certain theatrical releases. “Incarnate” used digital advertising to try to better reach younger, horror fans, and debuted on 1,700 screens, substantially fewer theaters than most studio movies unfurl across. It cost $5 million to produce.
 

shira

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Glad to see Moana, Arrival, and Dr. Strange all doing well. All movies with 90+ RT scores, too. Make a good movie, make money, it seems.
 

Decado

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Is it really coming out on a Wednesday in the US; the week of Christmas? That's a red flag, right there.

I'll probably see it within a week of release.
That is actually a good release window. Of course it means nothing if the film sucks.
 

kswiston

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$1.4M for Moana and $1.25M for Fantastic Beasts on Monday.

Frozen started to explode around this point, but Moana is was still about 35% higher than Tangled on the same Monday. If Moana has the same legs as Tangled after today, it will hit $250M.


Fantastic Beasts is now making slightly more than Deathly Hallows Pt 1 was on the same days in its run. It will probably finish in the $230-240M domestic range.


Is it really coming out on a Wednesday in the US; the week of Christmas? That's a red flag, right there.

I'll probably see it within a week of release.

Releasing the Wednesday going into X-Mas Weekend is standard operating procedure for new releases that weekend. Sing and Passengers are also releasing on Wednesday.
 

CaviarMeths

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I don't think anyone expected $300m for Strange on here.
There was discussion before release of whether or not it would reach $200m, let alone $300m. Its tracking suggested an opening quite a bit lower than Thor 2, which barely scraped by $200m.
 

BumRush

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Looks like Bobby's back!

At the high end: 60% RT score, $150m domestic gross.

At the low end: 20% RT score, $75m domestic gross.

It'll probably be somewhere in between.

I don't really see it anywhere near 60% / $150M...more like 40% / $100M
 

Ross61

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Warner Bros switch around a few movie release date for their 2017 films:

CHiPS directed and written by Dax Shepard co starring with Michael Pena. Moved from 08/11/17 to 03/24/17

Everything, Everything from 08/18/17 to 05/19/17. A romantic drama film directed by Stella Meghie and written by J. Mills Goodloe. The film stars Amandla Stenberg, and Nick Robinson.

King Arthur: Legend of the Sword from 03/24/17 to 05/12/17

Annabelle 2 from 05/19/17 to 08/11/17
 

Sibersk Esto

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Dax Shepard directing and starring in a feature film version of a 1970s cop show in 2017 might be in the top 10 least profitable movie pitches of all time.

At least Stiller and Owen did Starsky and Hutch when their stock was still worth something.
 

vinnygambini

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Seems like FOX played their cards right, Alien: Covenant got the week all to itself, no competition (Baywatch & Annabelle moved)
 

CaviarMeths

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Seems like FOX played their cards right, Alien: Covenant got the week all to itself, no competition (Baywatch & Annabelle moved)

It was still tossed in the middle of Guardians and Pirates. Really strange idea. Who moves a movie to be sandwiched between two Disney behemoths? Sounds like something Sony would do.

Looks like Baywatch was moved to May 26 to avoid competition with Alien: Covenant and a couple other wide releases both aimed at young audiences. How much demo overlap was Paramount really expecting there? And why is putting it up directly against Pirates any better?

And Annabelle was moved to open against Edgar Wright's new movie. Lol.
 

PhoncipleBone

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It was still tossed in the middle of Guardians and Pirates. Really strange idea. Who moves a movie to be sandwiched between two Disney behemoths? Sounds like something Sony would do.

Looks like Baywatch was moved to May 26 to avoid competition with Alien: Covenant and a couple other wide releases both aimed at young audiences. How much demo overlap is Paramount really expecting there? And why is putting it up against Pirates any better?

And Annabelle was moved to open against Edgar Wright's new movie. Lol.
The joys of summer releases.
 

hodayathink

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Warner Bros switch around a few movie release date for their 2017 films:

CHiPS directed and written by Dax Shepard co starring with Michael Pena. Moved from 08/11/17 to 03/24/17

Everything, Everything from 08/18/17 to 05/19/17. A romantic drama film directed by Stella Meghie and written by J. Mills Goodloe. The film stars Amandla Stenberg, and Nick Robinson.

King Arthur: Legend of the Sword from 03/24/17 to 05/12/17

Annabelle 2 from 05/19/17 to 08/11/17

King Arthur the week after GOTG 2? That's a bold move there.
 

vinnygambini

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It was still tossed in the middle of Guardians and Pirates. Really strange idea. Who moves a movie to be sandwiched between two Disney behemoths? Sounds like something Sony would do.

To be honest both release mentioned target a different set of audience than one can expect for Alien: Covenant's turnout - I think it'll do well given that.

Guardians will have been in theaters for two weeks to boot, so no, I don't think it's a bad move per se.
 

Ross61

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Dax Shepard directing and starring in a feature film version of a 1970s cop show in 2017 might be in the top 10 least profitable movie pitches of all time.

At least Stiller and Owen did Starsky and Hutch when their stock was still worth something.

Heard that is actually getting positive reception. Must've been getting good word for him to be Co-Director on the Scooby Doo movie.
 

kswiston

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August 2017 is pretty dead. Emoji is by far the biggest film releasing that month. It's pretty likely that nothing else that month even hits $75M domestic.


Both Deadline and Boxoffice.com are predicting that Moana will end up #1 again this weekend.

Boxoffice.com has Moana at $20M and Office Christmas party at $17M. Deadline is saying $18M for Moana and $13-15M for Office Christmas Party. Fantastic Beasts is expected to make $10-11M from both.

Comedies routinely beat their tracking, but reviews aren't really favourable for Office Christmas Party so far, and it does seem like the type of comedy that skews older.
 

Jezan

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Where can I check a calendar of movies to be released next year? They keep changing release dates
 

kswiston

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Any update on R1 tracking?

Nothing newer than last week. Boxoffice.com bumped their opening weekend prediction to $155M.

We're entering the hope stretch though, so I expect updated articles in the next few days. Perhaps on Monday, after the (slow) weekend box office wraps up.

Isn't June of next year a complete cluster fuck of movies?

The current schedule on Boxofficemojo:

• Captain Underpants (Fox) - 6/2
• Lady Macbeth (RAtt.) - 6/2
• Wonder Woman (WB) - 6/2
• The Mummy (2017) (Uni.) - 6/9
• World War Z 2 (Par.) - 6/9
• The Book of Henry (Focus) - 6/16
• Cars 3 (BV) - 6/16
• Rock That Body (Sony) - 6/16
• The Beguiled (2017) (Focus) - 6/23
• Transformers: The Last Knight (Par.) - 6/23
• Despicable Me 3 (Uni.) - 6/30
• The House (WB (NL)) - 6/30

World War Z is going to drop off the schedule. The director isn't even confirmed yet.
 

Chezzymann

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Next weekend will be very interesting for moana. Frozen had $22 million on its third weekend and $19 on its fourth. Moana will have to have virtually no drop to keep up with frozen. And then on Christmas it shot back up to $25. Not sure if moana can do that since Sing is coming out on Christmas and will definitely compete with moana.
 

kswiston

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Next weekend will be very interesting for moana. Frozen had $22 million on its third weekend and $19 on its fourth. Moana will have to have virtually no drop to keep up with frozen. And then on Christmas it shot back up to $25. Not sure if moana can do that since Sing is coming out on Christmas and will definitely compete with moana.

Moana isn't going to keep up with Frozen. I think the more realistic goal at this point should be $250M domestic.
 

kswiston

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Deadline and Hollywood reporter are both saying $20M for Moana and $17M for Office Christmas Party this weekend based on early Friday business.

La La Land might end up cracking the $200k PTA mark this weekend. It opened in 5 venues last night.
 

Dan

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Jun 8, 2004
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Heard that is actually getting positive reception. Must've been getting good word for him to be Co-Director on the Scooby Doo movie.
I've heard positive things as well, at least in terms of studio reception and in comparison to other broad Hollywood comedies. Marketing should kick in soon, trailers were being cut in the summer.
 

Discotheque

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I've heard positive things as well, at least in terms of studio reception and in comparison to other broad Hollywood comedies. Marketing should kick in soon, trailers were being cut in the summer.

Hopefully its better than 22 jump street and what that baywatch movie is looking like, shit looks terrible

I think a Chips movie starring Dax Shephard and Michael Pena could actually be hilarious if done right
 

BumRush

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Seems reasonable. We will have to wait several months to find out though. There will be a number of markets launching in late December and January. The Japanese launch is in March.

Why does Disney do that with animated films?
 

kswiston

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Hacksaw Ridge is getting better than expected reviews and grosses in China. It's not a blockbuster, but could do a solid $25M+ there.
 
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