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Wkd BO 12•09-11•16 - Moana a Party pupuper, keeps top spot warm for Disney fam

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Slayven

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Mortal Engines was the first book in a post-apocalyptic, steampunk young adult series. Peter Jackson and Fran Walsh are writing/producing, but it's being directed by one of Jackson's second unit directors/visual effects supervisors from the Middle Earth stuff.

I am aware of it, Twisted Metal except with cities
 

kswiston

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Young Han Solo still doesn't strike me as the epitome of Star Wars brand power. I wouldn't be surprised if that one was closer to the Marvel Solos in terms of box office than the Disney Star Wars films to date.
 

gamz

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Young Han Solo still doesn't strike me as the epitome of Star Wars brand power. I wouldn't be surprised if that one was closer to the Marvel Solos in terms of box office than the Disney Star Wars films to date.

100%

What were the est for R1 before the weekend?
 
Sep 1, 2011
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Young Han Solo still doesn't strike me as the epitome of Star Wars brand power. I wouldn't be surprised if that one was closer to the Marvel Solos in terms of box office than the Disney Star Wars films to date.

After Rogue One im a bit worried for it as it certainly won't have a 3rd act that can just decimate any negative of the movie.
 

Saucycarpdog

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I could see them greenlighting a Yoda and a Bobba Fett spinoff if the Han Solo movie succeeds.

I just don't know what they're going to do after episode 9. It would be too early to start a new trilogy but at the same time I doubt they'd be happy with just spin-offs.

Personally, I'd like an Old Republic film.
 

kswiston

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100%

What were the est for R1 before the weekend?

Disney was saying $120-130M. Everyone else in the industry was saying $130-150M.

Mojo had the film at $166M, but their writers aren't much more informed than we are. Boxoffice.com said $155M.

EDIT: So Rogue One will basically land on the high end of the estimates, or just past them.
 

Lifejumper

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After Rogue One im a bit worried for it as it certainly won't have a 3rd act that can just decimate any negative of the movie.

Have you seen the directors previous work?

Im expecting a funny smaller scale movie. I dont even expect the empire to be the main antagonist.

Its gonna surprise alot of people imo.
 
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I could see them greenlighting a Yoda and a Bobba Fett spinoff if the Han Solo movie succeeds.

I just don't know what they're going to do after episode 9. It would be too early to start a new trilogy but at the same time I doubt they'd be happy with just spin-offs.

Personally, I'd like an Old Republic film.

Rumored new trilogy (not connected to the Skywalkers) to give some time for the 7-9 characters to get older for 10-12. I'm thinking a trilogy set in the old republic would work.
 

gamz

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Disney was saying $120-130M. Everyone else in the industry was saying $130-150M.

Mojo had the film at $166M, but their writers aren't much more informed than we are. Boxoffice.com said $155M.

EDIT: So Rogue One will basically land on the high end of the estimates, or just past them.

Cool. So that's great.
 

gamz

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If the choice is Star Wars or Avatar getting the prime slot it would be Star Wars. They have Star Wars Land as well. And I doubt there is a single person who thinks Avatar Land is more of a priority for Disney than Star Wars Land.

This is what Weaver said about December 2018 a few days back:

http://www.slashfilm.com/avatar-2-release-date-delay/

At this point Star Wars will be pretty fully locked in as THE december franchise with 2015, 2016, & 2017. I could see Disney forcing Camerons hand here and schedule Star Wars against it to get Fox to blink and shift Avatar to Summer 2019 or along those lines. They will have owned December with Star Wars for 3 years straight by 2018.

They could try to force Cameron's hand but I don' think they will. They need the movie for it's Avatar Land (Star Wars Land doesn't need the help). It's going to be interesting as hell! When Avatar ever comes out.
 

kswiston

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As most of you know, boxoffice.com has a weekly long term forecast column, where they update their long term predictions of wide releases coming out in the next two months. We reach the mid-Feb point of that forecast with yesterday's update, so they have some more interesting films to talk about.

Initial Long Term Forecasts:

The Lego Batman Movie - $56M opening weeekend - $210M DOM total
Fifty Shades Darker - $41M OW - $83M total
John Wick: Chapter 2 - $20M opening - $45M total


Batman seems like a crazy lowball. Their reasoning (that people can see real Batman films released the year before and the fall after) doesn't really seem compelling to me. WB has also been going all out on the marketing for Lego Batman, so I can't see it opening like a mid-range animated film. The Lego Movie opened to $69M.

Hopefully Fifty Shades Darker wasn't too expensive!

The first John Wick opened to $14M and ended up with $43M. Action films often have decent legs in Feb, so I could see a total of $50M if the sequel opens to $20M.
 

gamz

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As most of you know, boxoffice.com has a weekly long term forecast column, where they update their long term predictions of wide releases coming out in the next two months. We reach the mid-Feb point of that forecast with yesterday's update, so they have some more interesting films to talk about.

Initial Long Term Forecasts:

The Lego Batman Movie - $56M opening weeekend - $210M DOM total
Fifty Shades Darker - $41M OW - $83M total
John Wick: Chapter 2 - $20M opening - $45M total


Batman seems like a crazy lowball. Their reasoning (that people can see real Batman films released the year before and the fall after) doesn't really seem compelling to me. WB has also been going all out on the marketing for Lego Batman, so I can't see it opening like a mid-range animated film. The Lego Movie opened to $69M.

Hopefully Fifty Shades Darker wasn't too expensive!

The first John Wick opened to $14M and ended up with $43M. Action films often have decent legs in Feb, so I could see a total of $50M if the sequel opens to $20M.

I'd think Wick grosses more. It blow up on vid and has a huge following.
 

pestul

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As much as I'd love for those numbers to happen to fifty shades (50% drop from 1st), I really don't see it. I'd say $60m opening and $120-130m.
 

kswiston

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Official Friday Estimate for Rogue One is $71.1M

EDIT: That's about 60% of The Force Awakens' first Friday. If you subtract previews, Rogue One had a true Friday of just over $42M. Just under 68% of TFA's true Friday.
 

Buckle

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If this thing hits 600 mil Lucasfilm is basically going to do whatever the fuck they want with their cinematic universe. That's greenlights everywhere.

Hell, if it gets over 550 they're all systems go.
Can't wait for the Darth Vader horror film.
 

kswiston

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Friday Studio Estimates:

1) Rogue One - $71.1M
2) Moana - $3.0M (-28%) - $153M total
3) Office Christmas Party - $2.6M (-60%) - $26M total
4) Collateral Beauty - $2.4M (at least Will Smith had Suicide Squad to console him)
5) Fantastic Beasts - $1.4M (-51%) - $204M total
6) La La Land - $1.4M (from 200 venues)
7) Manchester by the Sea - $1.3M - $11M total
8) Arrival - $825k - $86M total
9) Doctor Strange - $570k (-53%) - $225M total
10) Nocturnal Animals - $425k - $8M total
 

DeathyBoy

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Friday Studio Estimates:

1) Rogue One - $71.1M
2) Moana - $3.0M (-28%) - $153M total
3) Office Christmas Party - $2.6M (-60%) - $26M total
4) Collateral Beauty - $2.4M (at least Will Smith had Suicide Squad to console him)
5) Fantastic Beasts - $1.4M (-51%) - $204M total
6) La La Land - $1.4M (from 200 venues)
7) Manchester by the Sea - $1.3M - $11M total
8) Arrival - $825k - $86M total
9) Doctor Strange - $570k (-53%) - $225M total
10) Nocturnal Animals - $425k - $8M total

Does RO include the 29m from Thursday?
 

Toa TAK

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So, what are we expecting from Assassin's Creed opening weekend?

I know it's projected to at least do $25-30 million, right?
 

kswiston

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Just checking - I never understood combining two days worth of gross.

They count it as previews because there are no shows before 7pm, and typically the films run on fewer screens in the big 10-30 screen multiplexes.

The fewer screens thing may be less true for Star Wars.

It's still 1.5 days now for blockbuster opening Fridays.
 

Bobby Roberts

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Young Han Solo still doesn't strike me as the epitome of Star Wars brand power. I wouldn't be surprised if that one was closer to the Marvel Solos in terms of box office than the Disney Star Wars films to date.

Maybe, but the Rogue One marketing machine only really started to spin up heavily in the last 4-6 weeks, and has delivered pretty well.

Plus I think it'll make a difference when the movie ends up being sold way more as "The Han & Lando Movie" which it's probably gonna be.

It's probably gonna be like this weird blend of Silverado and Guardians of the Galaxy (I know, I know) but with Star Wars all over it. I can imagine that seeming really, really appealing if they frame it right.
 

Boke1879

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Maybe, but the Rogue One marketing machine only really started to spin up heavily in the last 4-6 weeks, and has delivered pretty well.

Plus I think it'll make a difference when the movie ends up being sold way more as "The Han & Lando Movie" which it's probably gonna be.

It's probably gonna be like this weird blend of Silverado and Guardians of the Galaxy (I know, I know) but with Star Wars all over it. I can imagine that seeming really, really appealing if they frame it right.

Man If that Hand and Lando movie does damn good with them. Like you said earlier. Lucasfilm can do whatever they fucking want. Hell they could make an animated Jawa movie and have it do numbers. I kid, but you never know.
 

kswiston

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Lucas Film can already do whatever they want. The Force Awakens and Rogue One are looking like they will at least approach $1.5B domestic combined, and will end up somewhere over $3B worldwide.

Even using 55% as the domestic share (we know it was higher from trade articles last year), and figuring China at $250M between the films, that's around or over $1.4B for Disney's box office cut on $450-500M of production costs. Basically $1B in profit before we even look at other revenue streams. Merch tie ins and toys alone more than make up for whatever marketing cost.
 

Schlorgan

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Lucas Film can already do whatever they want. The Force Awakens and Rogue One are looking like they will at least approach $1.5B domestic combined, and will end up somewhere over $3B worldwide.

Even using 55% as the domestic share (we know it was higher from trade articles last year), and figuring China at $250M between the films, that's around or over $1.4B for Disney's box office cut on $450-500M of production costs. Basically $1B in profit before we even look at other revenue streams. Merch tie ins and toys alone more than make up for whatever marketing cost.
Anyone else see Episode IX getting an insane budget; like $300m and them just letting Trevorrow go nuts?
 

BumRush

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Maybe, but the Rogue One marketing machine only really started to spin up heavily in the last 4-6 weeks, and has delivered pretty well.

Plus I think it'll make a difference when the movie ends up being sold way more as "The Han & Lando Movie" which it's probably gonna be.

It's probably gonna be like this weird blend of Silverado and Guardians of the Galaxy (I know, I know) but with Star Wars all over it. I can imagine that seeming really, really appealing if they frame it right.

Completely agree. The marketing will focus on space action and the comedic tone, and audiences will flock.
 

Caode

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Anyone else see Episode IX getting an insane budget; like $300m and them just letting Trevorrow go nuts?

One big benefit of releasing a film each year is the ability to re-use and adapt sets and structures they've already built. They're spending big on each film but still reducing costs in the long run...or so I remember reading about last year, think it was an interview with Bob Iger somewhere, I'll try find it. It's a well-oiled money making juggernaut. It'll be interesting to see how much this factors into episode IX considering they'll have a few films out by that stage.
 

pestul

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One big benefit of releasing a film each year is the ability to re-use and adapt sets and structures they've already built. They're spending big on each film but still reducing costs in the long run...or so I remember reading about last year, think it was an interview with Bob Iger somewhere, I'll try find it. It's a well-oiled money making juggernaut. It'll be interesting to see how much this factors into episode IX considering they'll have a few films out by that stage.
I know it's just Disney lining their pockets, but that is a really smart business strategy. And less wasteful too. It lets them focus on the elements that need to be kept tight like the screenplay and securing premium talent.
 
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Man If that Hand and Lando movie does damn good with them. Like you said earlier. Lucasfilm can do whatever they fucking want. Hell they could make an animated Jawa movie and have it do numbers. I kid, but you never know.

I mean, you make in the vibe of Minions/Despicable Me and it's time to print money. Story is full of sight gags and humor as they try to recover Droids for sale across Tatooine.

It writes itself.
 

Escape Goat

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why does she look like she should be singing country music
 
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Last thing I want is a greatest hits tour for Solo. If they show the bet for the Falcon, cool but if the movie becomes an exercise in visually defining his key mentions from the OT...eh...
 

Cheebo

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Hopefully someone thinks the same and gets a Dredd sequel going.
Dredd pretty much disappeared. Wick seemed to become more of an actual cult little movie. Not really comparable.

Maybe, but the Rogue One marketing machine only really started to spin up heavily in the last 4-6 weeks, and has delivered pretty well.

Plus I think it'll make a difference when the movie ends up being sold way more as "The Han & Lando Movie" which it's probably gonna be.

It's probably gonna be like this weird blend of Silverado and Guardians of the Galaxy (I know, I know) but with Star Wars all over it. I can imagine that seeming really, really appealing if they frame it right.
I really think that is more what it will be. Lucasfilm is smart enough to not do it as typical super hero origin sort of movie. Here is how Han got his vest!!! And so on. I expect something more along the lines of the Brian Daley Han Solo material. I believe Pablo Hidaldo even compared the script to them at one point?
 

kswiston

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So it seems pretty likely that La La Land will be this year's awards type film that ends up blowing by the $100M domestic point.

Manchester by the Sea will easily end up as biggest film Roadside Attractions ever distributed.
 

LFMartins86

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Dredd pretty much disappeared. Wick seemed to become more of an actual cult little movie. Not really comparable.
What? There's definitely a cult following for Dredd. There were a couple of organised campaigns to buy or rent the movie on a specific day and that made it go to top of the charts of various services.
John Wick had it's sequel greenlighted soon after the movie was released and actually hadn't time to disappear.
It's true that you can't compare the two but Dress definitely has a cult following.
 
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