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Wkd BO 12•16-18•16 - Mele kalikimaka for Disney as Rogue One & Moana #2

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PhoncipleBone

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Yup I'm about to take an L on this one :(

Given the deadline preview articles & first-day gross, it seems like it'll land in the low $80M's. Pretty awful for a star-studded film/most on-demand actors in Hollywood.
Can we blame the horrible reviews on this one? Mediocre trailers?
 
Jan 28, 2007
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Can we blame the horrible reviews on this one? Mediocre trailers?

eh, how about "hard locked comedy guy" in a serious dramatic romance movie? There are few things less awkward to think about then that.
And Lawrence has just had her 'romance' with the Hunger Games being over, and as someone who's watched them all, I can assure you I have zero interest in seeing that wet blanket pretend to care about someone.

Now, if this movie had Donald Sutherland -mister President Sutherland- to save an otherwise completely joyless experience from being a complete waste of time, I might consider watching that clip of it on Youtube. But he's not in it, sooooo this movie is basically lost in space by default.

*starts watching trailer to confirm suspicion*
Oh good lord that is even more awful than I thought it would be. I was expecting Solaris, not an Interstellar reject with awkward relation. Jesus, Sony, learn to market stuff already.
 

DeathyBoy

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eh, how about "hard locked comedy guy" in a serious dramatic romance movie? There are few things less awkward to think about then that.
And Lawrence has just had her 'romance' with the Hunger Games being over, and as someone who's watched them all, I can assure you I have zero interest in seeing that wet blanket pretend to care about someone.

Now, if this movie had Donald Sutherland -mister President Sutherland- to save an otherwise completely joyless experience from being a complete waste of time, I might consider watching that clip of it on Youtube. But he's not in it, sooooo this movie is basically lost in space by default.

*starts watching trailer to confirm suspicion*
Oh good lord that is even more awful than I thought it would be. I was expecting Solaris, not an Interstellar reject with awkward relation. Jesus, Sony, learn to market stuff already.

You expected Solaris starring J-Law and Chris Pratt?
 

kmag

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Can we blame the horrible reviews on this one? Mediocre trailers?

Poor trailers, and frankly a premise and setting not well suited to the genre they're aiming for.

The twist (which every review is putting front and centre) is particularly off putting for the genre.

Star power such as it is these days can help put certain types of films over the top, but it's not going to make a turkey fly.
 

Alrus

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Passengers being a romance was a mistake (especially when one of your lead does something incredibly reprehensible and they try to pass it as romantic). Would have worked better as a thriller.

Also a 110m budget for a "character" study, even if it happens in space is fucking dumb.
 

kswiston

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$975k for Why Him? previews


Deadline's updated Thursday for Rogue One is $16.7M, which bodes well for this weekend.

The latest estimates are $9.6M for Sing, $3.2M for Passengers, and $2.8M for Assassin's Creed on Thursday.
 

kswiston

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Ah, Vinny. You of all people should know star power is a con game.

I think there are still a few stars whose presence over someone similar makes a difference in terms of box office, but the list is pretty small. Maybe count on your fingers small.

There's never been any evidence that Jennifer Lawrence was on the list.
 

Cheebo

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Why would anyone predict big numbers for Passengers after those downright terrible trailes? You could see the bad reviews coming a mile a way when they couldn't even cobble together a watchable trailer.
 

MHWilliams

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I think there are still a few stars whose presence over someone similar makes a difference in terms of box office, but the list is pretty small. Maybe count on your fingers small.

There's never been any evidence that Jennifer Lawrence was on the list.

I think we've killed pretty much all of the sacred calves, right?

Depp fronted The Lone Ranger, Mertdecai, and Alice Through the Looking Glass. Will Smith rocked After Earth and Collateral Beauty. Matt Damon did Elysium, Contagion, Hereafter, and The Monuments Men, all of which barely broken even at best.

Tom Cruise maybe? ScarJo?
 

kswiston

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DiCaprio is pretty solid. No star bats 1000, but he has several films that were more successful than they had a right to be. Body of Lies was his biggest miss since he started to pull aways from his teen heart-throb image with Gangs of New York.

Denzel Washington has a solid track record as long as he isnt trying to do a prestige drama.

There are a few others. Having a hot streak of a couple of years is way more common.
 

vinnygambini

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We'll see if she can attract the casual moviegoers like she did with Lucy for Ghost in the Shell.

I'd say Denzel has a solid movie track record domestically & Mark Wahlberg to a certain extent too.
 

Schlorgan

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I think we've killed pretty much all of the sacred calves, right?

Depp fronted The Lone Ranger, Mertdecai, and Alice Through the Looking Glass. Will Smith rocked After Earth and Collateral Beauty. Matt Damon did Elysium, Contagion, Hereafter, and The Monuments Men, all of which barely broken even at best.

Tom Cruise maybe? ScarJo?

Forgetting The Martian and Jason Bourne so soon?
 
Jan 28, 2007
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You expected Solaris starring J-Law and Chris Pratt?

Well I have to expect something from a 90 minute feature length film, don't I?

And the only way to get that for 90 minutes (which is reaaaally long once you actually have to write it, or sit through it when it's a bad movie) is in the vein of exploring a complex dramatic situation. Remember that Clooney wasn't that big into his 'drama actor' turn either, mostly just 'action movie man' at that point. (he played dramatic characters in Three Kings and other movies, but he didn't have to carry the full 90 minutes with just him and co-actress. That's a big difference).
It's pretty obvious, given the context of the story, that the initial pitch was meant to be more focused on drama. I mean, it's in the goddamn title of the movie: passengers (on the stream of life). Knowing that Keanu Reeves was attached to it at one point makes more sense to me since his stoic personality would fit a 'Kubrian tale' if you will. I would probably have gone to see that version, actually. In terms of holistic aesthetics, that just makes more sense by default.

I did not expect it from those specific actors, no. But the script / story / theme only works in a certain direction, where those actors they decided to hire are hilariously bad fits.

It's kind of a shame because at least it looks like they threw some money at it. Also: why is that ship clearly a luxury liner yet it has people in stasis? That doesn't make any sense. At all.
Pandorum made more sense in that regard. I would recommend that movie. And Event Horizon for Christmas, of course. We don't need elves where we're going!


also, on the topic of writer Jon Spaihts, he is really lucky to have a credit on Doctor Strange, because the other movie he wrote is The Mummy, and I expect that movie to bomb hard. Well, except if China saves it. But that one looks awful on every level. *double scream*
edit: oh no, McQuarrie co-wrote that too as Tom Cruise's screenwriter guy? Man, I hope that movie doesn't end a good deal. Also, the other movie Spaihts is on is 'Van Helsing' co-written with Kurzman.... yeah, he's really lucky with that Strange credit.

And on the topic of star power: you guys aren't adding the added decay weights to female actors versus male actors. Male actor stardom wanes slower, whereas an actress (see 17% of roles) decays at something like 4 times as quickly. And 30 years of age appears a hard cut-off too, if you, like me, spend way too much time on imdb. Help?

edit2: I also suspect Facebook aggregation effects are now way more meaningful than any other indicator, like "star power". Train to Busan and other movies are basically all promoted through people's social networks and have nobody anyone would recognize, yet they're still watching it. The problem with that "success becomes more success" effect is that you either need to spend ridiculous amount of money on marketing to ensure certain effects (which can still fail, see Ghostbusters), or you need to get lucky and spend as little as possible on a wide range of 'see what sticks' products.
 

Schlorgan

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JK, good analysis.
 

kswiston

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Rth is saying $22-23M on Friday for Rogue One.


$13M for Sing, $4.2M for Passengers, $3.5M for AssCreed, and $3.3M for Moana.

Friday-Sunday gross for Passengers is going to be in the $11-13M range. Assassins Creed will likely be under $10M for the 3-day.
 

vinnygambini

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Rth is saying $22-23M on Friday for Rogue One.


$13M for Sing, $4.2M for Passengers, $3.5M for AssCreed, and $3.3M for Moana.

Friday-Sunday gross for Passengers is going to be in the $11-13M range. Assassins Creed will likely be under $10M for the 3-day.

Disaster.
 

Slayven

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I think we've killed pretty much all of the sacred calves, right?

Depp fronted The Lone Ranger, Mertdecai, and Alice Through the Looking Glass. Will Smith rocked After Earth and Collateral Beauty. Matt Damon did Elysium, Contagion, Hereafter, and The Monuments Men, all of which barely broken even at best.

Tom Cruise maybe? ScarJo?

Jody Foster has 3328 different accents in Elysium
 

kswiston

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Official Friday Estimates:

1) Rogue One - $22.8M - $245M total
2) Sing - $13.1M - $34M total
3) Passengers - $4.5M - $12M total
4) Why Him? - $3.9M
5) Assassins Creed - $3.7M - $11M total
6) Moana - $2.8M - $176M total
 
Sep 19, 2015
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Official Friday Estimates:

1) Rogue One - $22.8M - $245M total
2) Sing - $13.1M - $34M total
3) Passengers - around $4.2M (no official estimate yet)
4) Why Him? - $3.9M
5) Assassins Creed - $3.7M - $11M total
6) Moana - $2.8M - $176M total

I think Rogue One might be my first good prediction after going 0/2 with Strange and FB. I think I said on this forum that I expected RO to do 50% of TFA domestic and total, so that would equal 468.5MM domestic and 1.03B WW.
 

BronsonLee

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For the record I haven't been wrong about box office stuff in thirty five years

DiCaprio is pretty solid. No star bats 1000, but he has several films that were more successful than they had a right to be. Body of Lies was his biggest miss since he started to pull aways from his teen heart-throb image with Gangs of New York.

Which sucked cause I liked that movie
 

kswiston

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Seems like 500mil dom for Rogue One should be pretty attainable considering tht opening weekend, though.

I don't think word-of-mouth is such that the legs will be that truncated

This is where I point out that my Friday prediction from 2 days ago was 3% under the official estimate. We'll see where the rest of the weekend and holidays end up, but I had the total at around $440M by the end of Jan 1st.

Edit: The Force Awakens made another ~$195M after its third weekend, so even if you want to half that for Rogue One's legs, it easily breaks $500M.

I'll say around $575M for now.
 

Bobby Roberts

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This is where I point out that my Friday prediction from 2 days ago was 3% under the official estimate. We'll see where the rest of the weekend and holidays end up, but I had the total at around $440M by the end of Jan 1st.

Edit: The Force Awakens made another ~$195M after its third weekend, so even if you want to half that for Rogue One's legs, it easily breaks $500M.

I'll say around $575M for now.

Thank you and a Merry Christmas, K-Swiss.
 

Penguin

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Official Friday Estimates:

1) Rogue One - $22.8M - $245M total
2) Sing - $13.1M - $34M total
3) Passengers - $4.5M - $12M total
4) Why Him? - $3.9M
5) Assassins Creed - $3.7M - $11M total
6) Moana - $2.8M - $176M total

Assassin's Creed may come in 5th for the weekend?

Unless we expect better showing over the weekend?
 

Sibersk Esto

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Critical reception to Sing seems to place it in the same 'watchable time waster' catagory as the rest of Illumination's filmography.
 
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