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Wkd BO 12•23-25•16 - bomba Ass, Passengers, Sing as audiences continue to go Rogue

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guek

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Apr 27, 2011
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Beyond was fun but they did write Uhura completely out as a character and instead made her nothing more than "Spock's girlfriend."
 

JdFoX187

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Beyond was fun but they did write Uhura completely out as a character and instead made her nothing more than "Spock's girlfriend."

I thought that was essentially her "character" for much of the first two films. She spent the vast majority of Into Darkness being pissed at Spock for being willing to sacrifice himself for the greater good. I haven't seen Beyond in a month or so, but I remember their relationship ending within the first 20 minutes and not being touched on later, no?
 

DeathyBoy

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I thought that was essentially her "character" for much of the first two films. She spent the vast majority of Into Darkness being pissed at Spock for being willing to sacrifice himself for the greater good. I haven't seen Beyond in a month or so, but I remember their relationship ending within the first 20 minutes and not being touched on later, no?

At least in Darkness they had her doing shit like trying to pacify Klingons. In Beyond she's literally just waiting to be rescued.
 

kswiston

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Friday Studio Estimates:

1) Rogue One - $18.2M - $394M total
2) Sing - $16.8M - $140M total
3) Passengers - $5.7M - $51M total
4) Moana - $4.3M - $203M total
5) Fences - $3.4M - $23M total
6) Why Him? - $3.4M - $28M total
7) La La Land - $3.1M - $28M total
8) Assassin's Creed - $3.1M - $34M total
9) Fantastic Beasts - $1.4M - $221M total
10) Collateral Beauty - $1.4M - $24M total
 

DeathyBoy

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Rogue One topping CA: Civil War's total domestic box office this weekend with an anthology film... dear God, super swag.
 

DeathyBoy

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Jun 17, 2014
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Star Wars can't be stopped.

Until we get a Rogue One version...

 

Ninja Scooter

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Jun 7, 2004
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I don't know if Disney planned it that way from the start but I feel like turning Star Wars into a holiday franchise has been big for its box office. People are out and about this time of year shopping and what not, and I think the nostalgia plays well this time of year. When are people more nostalgic than at Christmas?
 

GhaleonEB

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I don't know if Disney planned it that way from the start but I feel like turning Star Wars into a holiday franchise has been big for its box office. People are out and about this time of year shopping and what not, and I think the nostalgia plays well this time of year. When are people more nostalgic than at Christmas?

Yeah, the initial delay from May to December for TFA turned into one hell of a great play for Disney. They can put this stake in the ground and just not move it.
 

firelogic

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Jun 2, 2013
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I don't know if Disney planned it that way from the start but I feel like turning Star Wars into a holiday franchise has been big for its box office. People are out and about this time of year shopping and what not, and I think the nostalgia plays well this time of year. When are people more nostalgic than at Christmas?

Do you think they'll move Episode IX to December in 2019? They currently have it scheduled for May 23, 2019.

Edit: Episode VIII is still set for December 15, 2017.
 

Schlorgan

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Do you think they'll move Episode IX to December in 2019? They currently have it scheduled for May 23, 2019.

Edit: Episode VIII is still set for December 15, 2017.
Episode VIII was pushed to December. I see no reason for Episode IX not to follow.

On another note, Rings got pushed to February and I'm starting to see some pretty clever ads for it on Facebook as well as ads on YouTube. Paramount is starting that push pretty early.
It'll probably suck, but that first trailer looked dumb enough to make me want to see it.
 

Cheebo

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Sep 8, 2011
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A spin-off film is going to not only make 500 mil domestically, but EASILY. Insane.

Unless a rare James Cameron appears.

Star Wars domestically is the the juggernaut, not James Cameron. Fox wouldn't risk releasing Avatar 2/3/etc against a Star Wars film. Avatar would be far more likely to move than Star Wars at this point.
 

DeathyBoy

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Yeah, the initial delay from May to December for TFA turned into one hell of a great play for Disney. They can put this stake in the ground and just not move it.

They'd be fools not to have Han's film in December after this.

ETA - Like absolute fools. Han film at Christmas? It'd kill the box office.
 

Cheebo

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You should do a prop bet against Cameron in Vegas. It always works out, I assure you.

Star Wars TFA destroyed Avatar domestically, it wasn't even close. Episode VIII is not going to be much better. Fox won't dare put Avatar up against Star Wars. Avatar is no Star Wars. Disney won't consider it in their scheduling, they will know Fox would move out of its way. It's like the game of chicken between BvS and Captain America.
 
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Star Wars TFA destroyed Avatar domestically, it wasn't even close. Episode VIII is not going to be much better. Fox won't dare put Avatar up against Star Wars. Avatar is no Star Wars. Disney won't consider it in their scheduling, they will know Fox would move out of its way. It's like the game of chicken between BvS and Captain America.

Cool man.

You don't need to try and convince me but here we are, two posts later.

And btw, I forgot the world begins and ends, domestically.

What was I thinking?
 

Cheebo

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Cool man.

You don't need to try and convince me but here we are, two posts later.

And btw, I forgot the world begins and ends, domestically.

What was I thinking?

The boxoffice % take for studios is much much better domestically than overseas so domestic timing is the primary deciding factor for when releasing the film.

Star Wars is without question bigger than Avatar. There isn't anyone in the world who would predict with a straight face Avatar 2/3 would outdo Episode 8/9 domestically. Not even Sculli would. Star Wars is the big man on campus for December. Fox wouldn't try to fight it.
 
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The boxoffice % take for studios is much much better domestically than overseas so domestic timing is the primary deciding factor for when releasing the film.

Star Wars is without question bigger than Avatar. There isn't anyone in the world who would predict with a straight face Avatar 2/3 would outdo Episode 8/9 domestically. Not even Sculli would. Star Wars is the big man on campus for December. Fox wouldn't try to fight it.

Three posts.

Who are you trying to convince at this point? Serious question.
 

Jigorath

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Aug 22, 2013
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Star Wars and Avatar 2 aren't going to release anywhere near each other. Neither studio is going to cannibalize their earnings like that. Besides, Disney spent a bunch of money on Avatar land so they have a vested interest in the movie doing well.
 
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Isnt Avatar 2 supposed to be 2018?

I think so, which is why Han hasn't moved yet. I'm not convinced JC will ship in 2018 so that is why I say Han hasn't moved yet.

K swizzle, I was wondering your thoughts on this: Based on effects we saw in the past with Paul Walker, I am convinced Carrie Fisher's passing will have similar effect on box office.

I got 8 beating Avatar and taking the number 1 spot all time. Am I wrong?
 
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Isnt Avatar 2 supposed to be 2018?
Yes. Which is probably why Han Solo is still slated for a summer release.

Though the plan has always been for the Avatar sequels to be released yearly, which means Avatar 3 would go toe-to-toe with Episode 9. We'll see about that.
 

kswiston

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Yes. Which is probably why Han Solo is still slated for a summer release.

Though the plan has always been for the Avatar sequels to be released yearly, which means Avatar 3 would go toe-to-toe with Episode 9. We'll see about that.

Actually, when they announced the Avatar sequels, I think they skipped 2019. So someone was already thinking about Star Wars.

I think so, which is why Han hasn't moved yet. I'm not convinced JC will ship in 2018 so that is why I say Han hasn't moved yet.

K swizzle, I was wondering your thoughts on this: Based on effects we saw in the past with Paul Walker, I am convinced Carrie Fisher's passing will have similar effect on box office.

I got 8 beating Avatar and taking the number 1 spot all time. Am I wrong?

I don't know if we will see the same Paul Walker/Heath Ledger effect, because TFA was already the biggest film of all time domestically by a large margin. Batman Begins and Fast 6 were both in the low 200s domestic. I do think that the drop off for Ep8 might be smaller than it would be otherwise, possibly breaking the sagging second film pattern of Star Wars trilogies.
 

MANUELF

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Mar 9, 2016
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I think so, which is why Han hasn't moved yet. I'm not convinced JC will ship in 2018 so that is why I say Han hasn't moved yet.

K swizzle, I was wondering your thoughts on this: Based on effects we saw in the past with Paul Walker, I am convinced Carrie Fisher's passing will have similar effect on box office.

I got 8 beating Avatar and taking the number 1 spot all time. Am I wrong?
Carrie is not the Main character so I dont expect any bump like that
 
Nov 30, 2010
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Actually, when they announced the Avatar sequels, I think they skipped 2019. So someone was already thinking about Star Wars.
Hmm, interesting. I'm reading that Avatar 4 is scheduled for 2022 and 5 for 2023.

I'm sure Disney is waiting to see how Avatar 2 goes before being willing to relent another three Decembers. If I was them, I'd not even sure I would give up 2018; they're very close to turning Star Wars into a holiday tradition, and I think that counts for a lot. It would also be amusing for me if a James Cameron joint got pushed to the summer after Titanic and Avatar both got pushed back from the summer.
 

Discotheque

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Oct 5, 2009
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I got 8 beating Avatar and taking the number 1 spot all time. Am I wrong?

yeah. it would need a 700 million bump from force awakens to touch Avatar haha. I think 8 and 9 will be pretty consistent and be around 1.8-2 something but not that high. Force Awakens is prolly peak Star Wars hype (for it's current Disney resurgence). the marketing selling the return of the franchise and the beloved characters was huge a couple years back.
 
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yeah. it would need a 700 million bump from force awakens to touch Avatar haha. I think 8 and 9 will be pretty consistent and be around 1.8-2 something but not that high. Force Awakens is prolly peak Star Wars hype (for it's current Disney resurgence). the marketing selling the return of the franchise and the beloved characters was huge a couple years back.

It won't come close to avatar unless it increases its WW appeal dramatically. Rogue one hasn't really seemed to broaden the fan base overseas despite the inclusions of actors from a varsity of backgrounds (particularly targeting the Chinese fan base).

I'm not sure any film can match avatar without a change in global exchange rates. Even avatar itself would have fallen a few hundred million short by today's exchange rate. So not only to you have to match that ludicrous box office it made but you have to significantly beat it to do similar numbers today.
 

Boke1879

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Disney would be smart to put every SW movie from here on out in December. It just plays well now, and it's kinda built in everyone's head now. I mean 3 movies in a row in December? That's SW month.
 
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The world? C'mon...

Oh yeah. American cultural production has completely colonized world-wide cultural reproduction.
The "tilt factor" (basically just crazy / balls out for) is more extreme in the US (I mean, watching a movie more than three times during its theater run is nuts), but its appeal is equal for most Western -and white..- countries.

Pretty sure even Japanese would recognize SW before Hidden Fortress, the movie it's derived from. Similar to Alien before Planet of the Vampires, despite a lot of major visual cues and story objects (not so much events) being taken from that one. That doesn't mean it's a rip-off, but Scott clearly ripped some things from it anyway. Like the horseshoe.
Watching Vampires: "so what did he take exactly? It's not that extr-" *Horseshoe shape* "oh"

That's what we mean when we talk about branding and brand power: which is the first to appear on a person's mind?

It would be crazy for Avatar to go up against SW on its brand, but at the same time, someone will have to at some point, and Avatar being science fiction versus space fantasy may be able to do it. You can't compete with crazy though, and that's the problem. See political arenas in recent years. Yeah yeah, I know you'll say those aren't related, but they are on the emotional regulation level. People aren't limited in crazy anymore, for some reason. And that happens everywhere, not just field x and y.
Though the Apple flock abandoning the Apple crazy is interesting to observe. But it's a really slow decay.

Also, brands are not apolitical. Disney has blown up the public domain for a reason, and it buys brands (Marvel, Star Wars) for very specific development. I mean, people now think that 'Disney princesses' are owned by that company, despite that the original animations were all from public domain. Being impressed with its business is one thing, realizing 'how' it secures that is another.
 

CaviarMeths

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Nothing is beating Avatar WW for at least 5 years, maybe 10. It will be the longest-reigning top grossing film since Gone With the Wind.
 

kswiston

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Nothing is beating Avatar WW for at least 5 years, maybe 10. It will be the longest-reigning top grossing film since Gone With the Wind.

Ya. Foreign exchange is pretty unfavorable at the moment.

Avatar would be around $2.325B with today's foreign exhange rates. Even if you want to count ticket inflation, it would drop from its 2010 total.
 
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