Wkd BO 8•04-06•17 - Man in Black kidnaps #1, Dun' not done son, Woman nears $400m DOM

Detroit did even worse than I had predicted, though I'm not really surprised. It's interesting, two movies lead by black actor(s) come out the same weekend, and despite how poorly one reviewed, I think an argument can be made that audiences would rather see a heroic black lead doing cool stuff than yet another movie about AA's being abused and mistreated victims (no matter how lauded it has been). Well, at least during this season.
To add to this, I also think that most audiences just don't enjoy going to see a heavy, rough movie like Detroit when they can see a lighter, more fun movie.
 
So Dunkirk will likely end up 160-170M with the way it's trending. I called 160M as the best case scenario and looks like it'll achieve that.

WW will top highest grossing Spider-man or highest gross superhero origin (non-sequel). It also has an outside shot at taking Civil War down.
 
To add to this, I also think that most audiences just don't enjoy going to see a heavy, rough movie like Detroit when they can see a lighter, more fun movie.
Yeah. Honestly, while I appreciate what Detroit is bringing to the table it's something I would wait to watch at home on bluray or streaming. And I bet that's a majority shared preference for harrowing films like this.
 
So Dunkirk will likely end up 160-170M with the way it's trending. I called 160M as the best case scenario and looks like it'll achieve that.

WW will top highest grossing Spider-man or highest gross superhero origin (non-sequel). It also has an outside shot at taking Civil War down.
$170M is a lowball. Interstellar was at $121M at this point. Even considering the Thanksgiving bump that Interstellar received in this coming week, Dunkirk should still be ahead by at least $4M through its fourth weekend. A 40% average drop during the next seven days will put Dunkirk at $151M coming off a weekend over $10M. I'd bet on $185M+
 
To add to this, I also think that most audiences just don't enjoy going to see a heavy, rough movie like Detroit when they can see a lighter, more fun movie.
I'll take oppressive darkness any day of the week. But I can see the subject matter just not sitting well with most people. America sucks right now. We don't need another reminder of how shitty it can be.
 
Justice League only needs Thor 2 level reviews to coast off the "DCEU recovers in 2017!" narrative. BvS and Suicide Squad set the bar so low that Wonder Woman looked like a miracle, and anything with a red tomato is going to look good.
Yeah, Justice League, if it's decent, should be $750-800 million easy.
 
Detroit did even worse than I had predicted, though I'm not really surprised. It's interesting, two movies lead by black actor(s) come out the same weekend, and despite how poorly one reviewed, I think an argument can be made that audiences would rather see a heroic black lead doing cool stuff than yet another movie about AA's being abused and mistreated victims (no matter how lauded it has been). Well, at least during this season.
Agree. Early august was a very curious time to release Detroit.
 
He's handsome and real popular with young people. I think he needs a movie that better utilizes his charm. He can probably sell a romantic comedy.
He's popular because of Star Wars. I don't see him resonating with audiences outside of that. I don't think he's leading man material especially in comparison to somebody like Idris Elba. Also his American accent for African Americans sucks. LOL

Hardly anyone has star power these days.
Plenty of people have star power to varying degrees that often depend upon the type of movies they're in and their quality.
 
Maybe Pacific Rim 2 will be a hit for Boyega. That dude deserves to not be in bombs outside of Star Wars.
I firmly believe that Pacific Rim should easily gross more than half billion worldwide. It should also have no trouble clearing $100 million in domestic.

Of course, for my domestic assumption, I have to expect a good and critically well received film otherwise I don't think it can do that well domestically. It will be still a HUGE hit internationally though and maybe China can help it still hit $500 million and above.

the only leading men/box office draws in hollywood right now are Leo and Nolan.
Leo has taken quite a break after his Oscar win. Will he remain a box office draw? I guess we will find out soon enough.

I'd say Tom Cruise is one right now though.
 
the only leading men/box office draws in hollywood right now are Leo and Nolan.
Nonsense. Denzel Washington has been one of the most consistent box office draws. Will Smith is still a box office draw, he's just been doing modestly budgeted dramas as of late. Kevin Hart and The Rock are box office draws.
 
I firmly believe that Pacific Rim should easily gross more than half billion worldwide. It should also have no trouble clearing $100 million in domestic.

Of course, for my domestic assumption, I have to expect a good and critically well received film otherwise I don't think it can do that well domestically. It will be still a HUGE hit internationally though and maybe China can help it still hit $500 million and above.


Leo has taken quite a break after his Oscar win. Will he remain a box office draw? I guess we will find out soon enough.

I'd say Tom Cruise is one right now though.
Not after The Mummy. People aren't gonna force themselves to see a bad Tom Cruise movie, which he has had a couple.
 

Grizzlyjin

Supersonic, idiotic, disconnecting, not respecting, who would really ever wanna go and top that
He's handsome and real popular with young people. I think he needs a movie that better utilizes his charm. He can probably sell a romantic comedy.
Maybe. I think having to put on an American accent detracts from his natural charm. Him and Emma Watson have this flirtation thing going on in The Circle and neither one sold it particularly well. Although to the fair to both actors, that movie was aggressively dumb.

Count me as a Pacific Rim Uprising naysayer. I don't think it'll make a blip in the US with such a stacked March. Maybe if Tomb Raider moves to summer and then PR:U reviews really well, then they might be cooking with something.
 
Nonsense. Denzel Washington has been one of the most consistent box office draws. Will Smith is still a box office draw, he's just been doing modestly budgeted dramas as of late. Kevin Hart and The Rock are box office draws.
This conversation always comes with caveats.

If we are talking about $150-200M films, star power doesn't mean much. The right person in the right role can definitely boost a film's financial outcome, but I don't think it matters much if that person is popular before the film releases, given the $100-200M marketing campaigns that most blockbusters get.

If we are talking about a $30-35M film like Detroit, having a recognizable lead still has some measurable value. A large portion of the marketing campaign for smaller films comes from the film's stars doing the press tour.
 
Plenty of people have star power to varying degrees that often depend upon the type of movies they're in and their quality.
I think a films quality, marketing, genre, are more important than the leading actor.

Ryan Reynolds was dropping BO bombs for years and had no star power. Put him in the right role, with great marketing, a popular genre and you have success.

There is obviously some degree of pull actors have with an audience but it seems overblown.
 
Nonsense. Denzel Washington has been one of the most consistent box office draws. Will Smith is still a box office draw, he's just been doing modestly budgeted dramas as of late. Kevin Hart and The Rock are box office draws.
Denzel Washington is a good example, so is Kevin Hart. Will Smith was pretty good at box office until he made some bad decisions recently, although Suicide Squad has elevated his box office status again and Aladdin is no doubt going to take it to another level.

I am not sure about The Rock though. Baywatch proved that he can have some duds although he has Jumani and Rampage coming up, which are going to prove his mantle.

Not after The Mummy. People aren't gonna force themselves to see a bad Tom Cruise movie, which he has had a couple.
As much as I hate The Mummy, it wasn't the worst movie I have seen this year and it likely isn't going to suddenly kill Tom Cruise or the other co-stars' box office potential.
 
I think a films quality, marketing, genre, are more important than the leading actor.

Ryan Reynolds was dropping BO bombs for years and had no star power. Put him in the right role, with great marketing, a popular genre and you have success.

There is obviously some degree of pull actors have with an audience but it seems overblown.
I don't disagree, but there's no reason to completely discount star power either.

Denzel Washington is a good example, so is Kevin Hart. Will Smith was pretty good at box office until he made some bad decisions recently, although Suicide Squad has elevated his box office status again and Aladdin is no doubt going to take it to another level.


I am not sure about The Rock though. Baywatch proved that he can have some duds although he has Jumani and Rampage coming up, which are going to prove his mantle.
Will Smith's critically panned dud of a film Collateral Beauty still made almost 90 million worldwide off a production budget of 36 million.
 
I don't disagree, but there's no reason to completely discount star power either.
Maybe my previous post came off that way but I'm not trying to completely discount it.

I still think Leo, Denzel, Cruise, The Rock, and others have a certain pull. They can drop a dud but they can also help boost a film.

Directors are another category. Nolan owns WB because of his power and Cameron can get as much money to do whatever he wants because of his.
 
You all people are sleeping on the box office potential of Tom Cruise. He is evergreen when it comes to box office. I mean look at the movies that he has mainly starred in and which have grossed more than 100 million domestically.

1. Top Gun - $179,800,601
2. Rain Man - $172,825,435
3. A Few Good Men - $141,340,178
4. The Firm - $158,348,367
5. Interview with a Vampire - $105,264,608
6. Mission Impossible - $180,981,856
7. Jerry Maguire - $153,952,592
8. Mission Impossible 2 - $215,409,889
9. Vanilla Sky - $100,618,344
10. Minority Report - $132,072,926
11. The Last Samurai - $111,127,263
12. Collateral - $101,005,703
13. War of the Worlds - $234,280,354
14. Mission Impossible 3 - $134,029,801
15. Mission Impossible 4 - $209,397,903
16. Edge of Tomorrow - $100,206,256
17. Mission Impossible 5 - $195,042,377

Even if you remove Mission Impossible, you get close to dozen movies of him that have grossed $100 million and if you add worldwide to the mix, he is easily the most bankable star, even now.

...how did Collateral Beauty gross $10m in Italy?
Fresh Prince.