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Wkd Box Office 12•11-13•15 - Calm before the Stormtroopers

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inm8num2

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Apr 3, 2012
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Copying an old post:

The better question may be, "How many box office threads will there be from Dec 18-20?"

TFA vs. Avengers AoU
TFA vs. Jurassic World
TFA vs. Avatar
TFA opening day
TFA midnight screenings
TFA opening weekend
TFA vs other SW movie opening weekends
Did TFA meet Disney's expectations?
Does TFA have legs to reach $1B domestic?
Will TFA reach $2B worldwide?
etc.

That's just scratching the surface!
 

kswiston

Member
Mar 25, 2005
35,137
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Canada
At the very least there will be a thread if it does take the previews/first day or weekend record (and probably one if it doesn't too), a crow eating thread, and this one. We'll probably get a thread about people wanting sci fi films more than they want superhero films. Maybe a thread speculating on how the film would have performed if Lucas kept control of the franchise as well.

In all of them, there will be people who feel the need to point out that they have never seen a Star Wars film and don't see what the big deal is.

EDIT: I forgot the "vs Avatar" thread. That is pretty much a guarantee.
 
May 16, 2011
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We should at least have a thread about weather events and other externalities culminating in the development of universal formula that not only accounts for the aforementioned but inflation and demographics over time.
 

Jawmuncher

Member
Sep 2, 2010
61,693
17
790
Isla Nublar
I just wanna see the TFA vs Jurassic World. Mainly the opening, since if it beats it there, it's pretty certain to beat it's domestic gross.
I've said it before, but I'm personally looking forward to the "so, I like the prequels more" threads the most.
3 is my favorite film of the series. Have a feeling TFA will become my favorite though. Will have the bigger budget of the preuels, while having the better setting of the older films.
 

Son Of D

Member
Sep 18, 2013
9,299
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"Should Disney release a sing-a-long version of The Force Awakens?"
"How much more would TFA have made if it had a white male lead?" <- That one's more likely to be posted in a thread, especially if it doesn't break OW records.

And on gaming side:

"With the success of TFA, should Square Enix add Star Wars to Kingdom Hearts 3?"
"Will Battlefront see a TFA boost?"
 
Apr 19, 2011
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You know while I don't t think it will unseat avatar I kind of also want it to just so I can watch the fireworks.

Someone will make a thread every time it beats Avatar on something. Any metric, it won't matter. "[MOVIE BLOG]: More people wore blue to TFA than ever wore blue when seeing Avatar in theaters."
 

Jawmuncher

Member
Sep 2, 2010
61,693
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790
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"Should Disney release a sing-a-long version of The Force Awakens?"
"How much more would TFA have made if it had a white male lead?" <- That one's more likely to be posted in a thread, especially if it doesn't break OW records.

And on gaming side:

"With the success of TFA, should Square Enix add Star Wars to Kingdom Hearts 3?"
"Will Battlefront see a TFA boost?"

Both of those are a lock.
 

BronsonLee

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Oct 30, 2011
50,961
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And I'm definitely going to make a Best Movie Of The Year thread and specifically not include Force Awakens because who gives a shit, Mad Max and Creed came out this year

WB da GOAT
 

Just Some Guy

Banned
Jul 18, 2015
144
0
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In the heart of the sea was actually pretty good

But any movie that tells the story of how a book was written in this culture? Surprised it was ever green lighted.
 

guek

Banned
Apr 27, 2011
18,685
1
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And I'm definitely going to make a Best Movie Of The Year thread and specifically not include Force Awakens because who gives a shit, Mad Max and Creed came out this year

WB da GOAT

Oh, I was thinking about making that some time in January but with multiple categories and some cheesy photoshopped statues and call it the GAFies
 

kswiston

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Mar 25, 2005
35,137
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So to get the thread back on topic: Numbers are still being tallied, but it looks like Star Wars broke the midnight record in Australia (Deathly Hallows 2 held the record there as well).

Preorders finished over $15M in Australia. Australia has like 1/13th the number of people as the US does.

EDIT: Hong Kong and South Korea don't seem to really care though.
 
L

Lord Virgin

Unconfirmed Member
Give it enough time and GAF will hate anything that it seemed to love at first. Seriously, noticing a pattern.

So a few months from now we'll probably get the first: "lttp, TFA is overrated shit" threads.
 

3N16MA

Banned
Mar 6, 2010
19,757
0
0
Did boxoffice.com release a new domestic total? I see they raised the OW prediction to 229M which would put their overall domestic total at 811M using the same multiplier.

Very close to my 228M/810M prediction.

We will see how accurate that is.
 

PhoncipleBone

Banned
Apr 12, 2005
51,235
1
0
The unreasonably warm weather this weekend seems like it is an act of god to make sure this film takes every record for opening weekend.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Jun 8, 2004
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I will be genuinely surprised if Star Wars manages to take the OW record. Just seems crazy if it nearly triples the December record and massively transcends all the reasons behind that modest record.

We'll see. *shrug*
 

3N16MA

Banned
Mar 6, 2010
19,757
0
0
I will be genuinely surprised if Star Wars manages to take the OW record. Just seems crazy if it nearly triples the December record and massively transcends all the reasons behind that modest record.

We'll see. *shrug*

It's going to crush the December record even if does not manage to take the OW record. It is going to play like a summer blockbuster and not the typical December release.
 

PhoncipleBone

Banned
Apr 12, 2005
51,235
1
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I will be genuinely surprised if Star Wars manages to take the OW record. Just seems crazy if it nearly triples the December record and massively transcends all the reasons behind that modest record.

We'll see. *shrug*

I think Deadline was calling for it to finally supplant Harry Potter 8 for largest preview night (midnight or late Thursday) record. While opening at 7 does stack the deck in Star Wars's favor, that is still a huge record to topple. But the fact that HP did over $40m from just midnight is insane.

I really wonder how the theater here is going to be tomorrow night. Opening night for Furious 7 and Avengers: Age of Mediocrity were pretty tame for crowds. I guess the town I am in now isn't a huge crowd kind of town. I still plan to show up a few hours early and see how the line is.

It's going to crush the December record even if does not manage to take the OW record. It is going to play like a summer blockbuster and not the typical December release.

That is without question. Even if it doesn't take the all time OW record, the December record is going to go down hard. I don't think anyone has been foolish enough to say otherwise, even if many of us (myself included) were saying months ago that the OW record might not fall. But the incredible weather is playing into me thinking it might break the OW.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Jun 8, 2004
31,508
0
0
It's going to crush the December record even if does not manage to take the OW record. It is going to play like a summer blockbuster and not the typical December release.
Oh, I have no fucking doubt it puts the previous December record to shame. That isn't even a question.
 
Jul 9, 2015
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I will be genuinely surprised if Star Wars manages to take the OW record. Just seems crazy if it nearly triples the December record and massively transcends all the reasons behind that modest record.

We'll see. *shrug*
I thought people got over this kind of mindset?

People will flock to see Star Wars, regardless of the time of year. The Hobbit wasn't a cultural event type of thing like Star Wars is.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Jun 8, 2004
31,508
0
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I thought people got over this kind of mindset?

People will flock to see Star Wars, regardless of the time of year. The Hobbit wasn't a cultural event type of thing like Star Wars is.
You make it sound like I'm spouting some 16th century social policy that civilization has moved beyond.

It's a question of whether Star Wars trumps all the other things people have going on at this time of the year, that such a huge number decides they absolutely have to find time this weekend for it, rather than wait until any other day next week, or whenever.

We'll see. I certainly don't think we have concrete historical precedence that should make anyone so flippantly assume it'll demolish the all time opening weekend record. It's conceivable, but the kind of massive weekend necessary to take the throne, or come near it, is notoriously hard to predict as the year has demonstrated.
 

hodayathink

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Mar 13, 2013
6,450
1
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You make it sound like I'm spouting some 16th century social policy that civilization has moved beyond.

It's a question of whether Star Wars trumps all the other things people have going on at this time of the year, that such a huge number decides they absolutely have to find time this weekend for it, rather than wait until any other day next week, or whenever.

We'll see. I certainly don't think we have concrete historical precedence that should make anyone so flippantly assume it'll demolish the all time opening weekend record. It's conceivable, but the kind of massive weekend necessary to take the throne, or come near it, is notoriously hard to predict as the year as demonstrated.

I mean, there's a non-zero chance that a boxing match prevented Avengers from taking the record before JW did take it. You really can't predict this type of thing as accurately as some people like to believe.
 

PhoncipleBone

Banned
Apr 12, 2005
51,235
1
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You make it sound like I'm spouting some 16th century social policy that civilization has moved beyond.

It's a question of whether Star Wars trumps all the other things people have going on at this time of the year, that such a huge number decides they absolutely have to find time this weekend for it, rather than wait until any other day next week, or whenever.

We'll see. I certainly don't think we have concrete historical precedence that should make anyone so flippantly assume it'll demolish the all time opening weekend record. It's conceivable, but the kind of massive weekend necessary to take the throne, or come near it, is notoriously hard to predict as the year has demonstrated.

Allow me to once again post my favorite Deadline article from this year.
 
Jul 9, 2015
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You make it sound like I'm spouting some 16th century social policy that civilization has moved beyond.

It's a question of whether Star Wars trumps all the other things people have going on at this time of the year, that such a huge number decides they absolutely have to find time this weekend for it, rather than wait until any other day next week, or whenever.

We'll see. I certainly don't think we have concrete historical precedence that should make anyone so flippantly assume it'll demolish the all time opening weekend record. It's conceivable, but the kind of massive weekend necessary to take the throne, or come near it, is notoriously hard to predict as the year as demonstrated.
It's multiple factors. The thing that makes me confident that it'll shatter records is the fact that it beat the previous pre-order record by eight times. That, plus the fact that it has IMAX to itself for a whole month and that it's playing straight through from Thursday to Monday, makes me believe it'll break the OW record. The weather doesn't seem to be acting up either, so it has the perfect conditions to do it.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Jun 8, 2004
31,508
0
0
It's multiple factors. The thing that makes me confident that it'll shatter records is the fact that it beat the previous pre-order record by eight times. That, plus the fact that it has IMAX to itself for a whole month and that it's playing straight through from Thursday to Monday, makes me believe it'll break the OW record. The weather doesn't seem to be acting up either, so it has the perfect conditions to do it.
What does having IMAX to itself for a month have to do with the opening weekend?

The previous preorder record holder was The Dark Knight Rises with $25m. Star Wars hit $100m yesterday (with estimated $50-60 specifically for the weekend). As is obvious, the preorder rate doesn't exactly translate linearly to final opening weekend tallies considering there are several movies with higher weekends than TDKR.

The movie is not somehow playing straight through from Thursday evening to Sunday night without breaks. It's playing like any other huge blockbuster.
 
Mar 7, 2013
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Kswiston, how long until we'll know if it's going to pass Titanic?

Deadline's gonna be going crazy this weekend. They already have a full coverage section.
 

MrCookiepants

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Oct 17, 2010
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Am I missing the sarcasm here?

I'll try and explain without spoiling anything. The return of the Millennium Falcon is a good example. Old fans will get a kick out of it. Everyone else will be like whatever. These kinds of references make up a huge amount of the film's appeal and that makes it less accessible.

I'm not sure if it can outgross Avatar for this reason.
 

numble

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Apr 22, 2007
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I'll try and explain without spoiling anything. The return of the Millennium Falcon is a good example. Old fans will get a kick out of it. Everyone else will be like whatever. These kinds of references make up a huge amount of the film's appeal and that makes it less accessible.

I'm not sure if it can outgross Avatar for this reason.

His point is that Jurassic World relies a little bit on nostalgia...
 
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