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Wkd Box Office 12•11-13•15 - Calm before the Stormtroopers

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kswiston

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Disney seems to think people will care enough about Avatar 2 to spend $500M building a Pandora attraction in Animal Kingdom that will launch the same year as the sequel.
 

SCULLIBUNDO

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Release dates (clash) will affect the gross, don't act short sighted unless that was your original intention.

The release dates comment was a separate conversation from my China comment. I really shouldn't have to keep explaining this.

You thought I was saying that Avatar and Ep8 releasing at the same time would be bad for Disney because Avatar 2 will be beating the Chinese drum hard.

That isn't what I said, nor what I'm saying.

Stop it.
 

duckroll

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Erm, JJ didn't get his wish for a 6 month delay. If he had, it would have released May 2016.

They originally wanted it as a Summer 2015 film, but after Abrams wanted to change the script, they pushed for a full year delay to 2016. That was denied, and the compromise was a 6 month delay to a Dec 2016 release.
 

SCULLIBUNDO

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They originally wanted it as a Summer 2015 film, but after Abrams wanted to change the script, they pushed for a full year delay to 2016. That was denied, and the compromise was a 6 month delay to a Dec 2016 release.

Shit, I completely forgot about that part. I only remembered that JJ wanted it May 2016.
 

kswiston

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They originally wanted it as a Summer 2015 film, but after Abrams wanted to change the script, they pushed for a full year delay to 2016. That was denied, and the compromise was a 6 month delay to a Dec 2016 release.

Universal should thank Disney for that delay. I can't imagine that people would have been as gung ho for Jurassic World if Star Wars hit 2-3 weeks before.
 

duckroll

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Disney seems to think people will care enough about Avatar 2 to spend $500M building a Pandora attraction in Animal Kingdom that will launch the same year as the sequel.

Yes, there's certainly a strong push for it. But it's also been a really long time since Avatar, so I don't think it is unreasonable to say that there is some risk involved. The China blockbuster going public is still a very new market so I think it'll definitely be interesting to see how fickle they are with their tastes or if there are foreign franchises they really attach to.
 

vinnygambini

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I do think that it is a question of whether Avatar 2 will have the same effect in China though. I mean on one hand we know they love blockbusters, so it'll do fine, but I'm not really convinced that there's some specific intimate love for the Avatar franchise brand in particular in China. It was just a huge blockbuster which they could relate to, and probably the first one of that scale in this new generation. There's no telling if they will have moved on by the next movie, or if the next movie's visuals and themes might not resonate on the same level. We know so little about Avatar 2 it's hard to even guess imo.

I think Avatar's 2 box-office potential is quite high and could very well be among the highest grossing films of the country when launched. The name James Cameron equates to quality and I think the Titanic gross in China demonstrates as such (it helps that its a beloved film too). I mean James Cameron is personally taking charge of the 3D conversion for T2 specifically geared for the Chinese market. Its all about building up the name until Avatar 2 launches. A box office gross that exceeds T4 is a foregone conclusion on my part, but hey I may be wrong and Avatar 2 is shit.
 

BronsonLee

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Disney seems to think people will care enough about Avatar 2 to spend $500M building a Pandora attraction in Animal Kingdom that will launch the same year as the sequel.

Gotta make back that money they burned on freaking Tomorrowland!
 

BronsonLee

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Oct 30, 2011
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It's going to take a rewatch for me to decide, but I'm not sure whether I enjoy Tomorrowland more than TFA.

I can say that I'm glad Disney made it.

...I'm entering a lower circle of hell now, aren't I

You probably are glad they made it because it killed Tron 3! Sculli I'm not fooled!
 

kswiston

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So will SW go over or under Furious 7's overseas haul?

Impossible to know yet. Over 1/3 of Furious 7's foreign total was China. I think that Star Wars will top Furious 7 outside of China.

I think Avatar's 2 box-office potential is quite high and could very well be among the highest grossing films of the country when launched. The name James Cameron equates to quality and I think the Titanic gross in China demonstrates as such (it helps that its a beloved film too). I mean James Cameron is personally taking charge of the 3D conversion for T2 specifically geared for the Chinese market. Its all about building up the name until Avatar 2 launches. A box office gross that exceeds T4 is a foregone conclusion on my part, but hey I may be wrong and Avatar 2 is shit.

Transformers 4 was shit. China doesn't care.
 

numble

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Disney seems to think people will care enough about Avatar 2 to spend $500M building a Pandora attraction in Animal Kingdom that will launch the same year as the sequel.

They are also sinking a lot of money building a Tron attraction at Shanghai Disneyland as well. I don't think their theme park decisions should play too much into their box office predictions. The failure of the Tomorrowland movie won't stop them from dumping a lot of money into all the Tomorrowland attractions.
 

BronsonLee

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If Furious 7 beats Star Wars I will build a loop ramp in my backyard, put a Darth Vader standee at the end of it, then run him down in my car
 

kswiston

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They are also sinking a lot of money building a Tron attraction at Shanghai Disneyland as well. I don't think their theme park decisions should play too much into their box office predictions. The failure of the Tomorrowland movie won't stop them from dumping a lot of money into all the Tomorrowland attractions.

They aren't building John Carterland.
 

vinnygambini

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They are also sinking a lot of money building a Tron attraction at Shanghai Disneyland as well. I don't think their theme park decisions should play too much into their box office predictions. The failure of the Tomorrowland movie won't stop them from dumping a lot of money into all the Tomorrowland attractions.

Tron is an IP that Disney owns outright. $ generated from product sales and licenses go directly in their pockets. Disney is investing in a third-party IP, where they have to pay a license fee, have no equity stake in the property, in addition to receiving no ancillary revenues derived from that said IP is a much bigger gamble than say a Tron attraction. Its a huge gamble and they are hoping the payout is well worth it. Bob Iger wouldn't have shelled out $500 million if he didn't believe in the box office potential of the sequels and Cameron's vision.

Kswiss, for China Transformers was great and they enjoyed it, imagine if Avatar rates better, quadruple the grossssss! Believe.

Edit: Isn't Tomorrowland a theme park area and not a ride too?
 

CrichtonKicks

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Nov 6, 2004
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If Furious 7 beats Star Wars I will build a loop ramp in my backyard, put a Darth Vader standee at the end of it, then run him down in my car

Internationally or total world wide?

Bob Iger wouldn't have shelled out $500 million if he didn't believe in the box office potential of the sequels and Cameron's vision.

Well he thought John Carter and Tomorrowland had enough box office potential to shell out $500 million combined for them.
 
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They didn't have the same restrictions on foreign releases back then. The first Avatar played for 3 months (more?). And back then there was an import quota that only allowed 20 foreign movies per year. After they were sued in the WTO, China nearly doubled the foreign movies allowed in, but now they take other measures to ensure domestic movies do better.

Now, foreign movies can only play for 4 weeks, and they now blackout months in December and February where foreign movies cannot play.

they also blackout august, too.
 

vinnygambini

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Well he thought John Carter and Tomorrowland had enough box office potential to shell out $500 million combined for them.

Look at the body of work of both directors and the reason will be quite evident.

Edit: I'm confused Numble, Tron grossed $400 million and their consumer products revenue far outweighed John Carter's so of course they wouldn't develop an attraction based on that. Its a bigger risk for Disney to invest in 3rd party properties because they dont have all these revenue streams as oppose to in house properties, that's the point no?
 

3N16MA

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THR and Deadline reporting 50-55M Thursday preview for TFA (could climb to 60M). I have no clue if they are just throwing a number out there that sounds good or they have some actual data.
 
Feb 8, 2012
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So possibly more than half what Hobbit did OW just in previews? Crazy.

55M would put it at #9 opening weekends in December just from the previews. Even 50 would be top 10 range.
 

ElectricMonk

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Jan 28, 2014
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Deadline
Rentrak’s PostTrak currently reveals the following audience breakdown (which they monitor throughout the weekend): Force Awakens is largely drawing older males at 71% guys, 53% over 25. A majority of the audience at 94% are grading the J.J. Abrams film either excellent or very good, which is a remarkable score rarely seen on PostTrak. Close to half of the audience say they attended Force Awakens because it’s part of a franchise they love. More than half the audience polled say that Force Awakens exceeded their expectations.

One crazy weekend ahead I think.
 

milanbaros

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Impossible to know yet. Over 1/3 of Furious 7's foreign total was China. I think that Star Wars will top Furious 7 outside of China.



Transformers 4 was shit. China doesn't care.

The dollar has appreciated even since FF7. There is a lot working against SWFA in the international gross.
 

Bluth54

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Feb 5, 2008
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71% dudes haha oh man.


That should normalize over the weekend though. Only hardcore fans were there last night.

Yeah I imagine most of the overnight shows were the real hardcore fans, and there are probably a lot more hardcore male Star Wars fans then female. It will almost certainly even out over time.
 

Christopher

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Mar 19, 2005
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We all know that you are waiting for that, we see your saltiness in every blockbuster thread b

His life isn't complete until he sees what studio makes more hundreds of millions of dollars that he isn't!

I just can't believe it's here Star Wars is here!
 
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