Worst Case Scenario for the Vita

#52
There is almost zero risk of Sony just announcing its not supporting (by the time we'd make it to that point, it would already be dead). If it dies, the way it will die will by getting less and less attention from developers and the public.

More than likely, there will be some announcements still of big games already in development. Things looked better a year or two ago and that's when that support would have been coming for games that are upcoming. If the next wave of these completely bomb, then you are in a real pickle and I think you see anything that can be moved, moved and things not close to done dropped.

With that said, I think they'll probably be enough of a userbase to support at least some level of decent development and the console will survive (although probably not thrive).
 

Dash Kappei

Not actually that important
#53
Worst case scenario is this is the worst case scenario.
So yeah, pretty crap. I'm glad I was able to resist picking one up. I had buyer's remorse with the 3DS as well especially when they cut the price so hard, even tho I got a nice deal at launch, but at least I always knew that a stream of fantastic games was just months away.
 
#54
Same as is the worst case for any console.

Sony launched it at a high price. But they should have done. Makes more business sense to squeeze as many $250 sales as they canbthen drop the price, than it does to start at a lower price. I suspect next year everything will be fine and people will be talking about how the WiiU is doomes. Rinse, lather, repeat.
That started last e3 IIRC.
 
#55
Youre watching worst case scenario happen before your very eyes.
I normally disagree with you when it comes to handhelds because of your enormous agenda but you're right here. It's happening now.

I wouldn't worry until after E3 though. It's a do or die show for Sony and I'm wondering what third party support they'll get. I'm talking real third party support too, not a scenario like Levine saying Bioshock is coming and then nothing happens months and months later and then it just silently gets cancelled.
 
#57
There is almost zero risk of Sony just announcing its not supporting (by the time we'd make it to that point, it would already be dead). If it dies, the way it will die will by getting less and less attention from developers and the public.

More than likely, there will be some announcements still of big games already in development. Things looked better a year or two ago and that's when that support would have been coming for games that are upcoming. If the next wave of these completely bomb, then you are in a real pickle and I think you see anything that can be moved, moved and things not close to done dropped.

With that said, I think they'll probably be enough of a userbase to support at least some level of decent development and the console will survive (although probably not thrive).
Yeah I can't possibly imagine Sony, who time and time again have proven over all that they are unfathomably proud. They would NOT admit defeat. They would word it into some kind of business plan. PSP Go style.
 
#59
Way too early to declare the Vita dead. It's suffering globally right now, both in hardware and software, but it has plenty of time to make a comeback. Look at exhibit A: the 3DS. Started off abysmally, but after a price-drop has found its second wind.

What the Vita REALLY needs right now is software tailored to it's demographic areas. Outside a one or two titles, there's NO compelling reason to leave the PSP yet, which is still receiving great games.
 
#60
Worst case scenario.. I don't know. Something like the 3DS launch would've been a worst case scenario for me.. I.E. no good games outside of one broken game that needed a patch to be played properly (Ghost Recon). So yeah, at this point in it's life, the Vita is in better shape than the 3DS was for me and I'm pretty content with that.
 
#61
If Vita continues as-is, we're headed for a worst case scenario.

Luckily, this probably isn't going to happen. What the Vita needs is an identity that isn't "the system you can use to play PS3 games on-the-go." Sony's banking too much on that premise, and it was never a good one.

I think the Vita's best asset is still its dual analogues (possibly in combination with its multi-touchscreen). A handheld system has never had this before -- CPP doesn't count as it's optional. Developers need to find a way to make a fun portable-type experience using this tool they've had for over a decade. Console ports and spinoffs won't cut it, I'm afraid.
This is the major problem with Vita.

They keep trying to create handhelds that copy exactly what you can play on your home console. Nintendo tries to make their handhelds very, very different from consoles for a good reason. They try to create experiences with their handhelds that you can't get on your TV. You couldn't get stuff like dual screens or touch screens on a console before (well before Wii U).

Handhelds are meant to feel like a seperate and unique experience from your tv.

As soon as you try to make a handheld that reproduces console stuff, gamers will just say "Meh...I'd rather play the new MLB on a larger TV".
 
#66
This is the major problem with Vita.

They keep trying to create handhelds that copy exactly what you can play on your home console. Nintendo tries to make their handhelds very, very different from consoles for a good reason. They try to create experiences with their handhelds that you can't get on your TV.

Handhelds are meant to feel like a seperate and unique experience from your tv.
.
BY releasing ports of Star Fox and Zelda, then following that up with Mario 3D land and Mario Kart? All of those are console experiences in handheld form.....
 
#67
Well in Japan in one week the 3DS does nearly 10 times as better than the PSV. 10... times. In USA it seems to be fairly closer (225 3DS >200K PSV if I remember right from last NPD), but the 3DS sold millions over the Christmas so that gives the 3DS a bigger advantage.
Sales also flatlined in Europe after launch to the point where it's being outsold by the PSP. And to add more context to Japanese sales, it's doing worse than the Gamecube and is closing in on Dreamcast territory.

I also find it totally crazy that the Smash game Sony is working on doesn't have a Vita version.
 
#69
3rd parties aren't going to stop development in progress just because the Vita isn't selling right now. But if they release those titles, no one shows up to buy them and their investment doesn't pay off, that's when they'll abandon ship.

That'll be the worst case scenario.
 
#70
Worst case scenario.. I don't know. Something like the 3DS launch would've been a worst case scenario for me.. I.E. no good games outside of one broken game that needed a patch to be played properly (Ghost Recon). So yeah, at this point in it's life, the Vita is in better shape than the 3DS was for me and I'm pretty content with that.
I feel like this has been mentioned so many times before, but sales-wise, Vita's launch was even worse than 3DS's launch, and the 3DS at least had Mario games coming for it. People like to point out the comeback the 3DS made, but the Vita is not in the same position.
 
#71
Sonys pockets are empty and the company is on life support. Vita needs some miracle software to get sales up. A price drop might help too but Sony isn't in a position where they can lose more money.
I think that's the core problem with it and the PSP (and possibly the PS3) - lack of killer apps. Outside of Monster Hunter in Japan the PSP never really got a killer app - that exclusive that everybody had to have and would go on to color the rest of the platform. We don't know if the Vita will get one either, but E3 is bound to reveal the second wave of games for it. Potentially it could end up getting the first good handheld Call of Duty.
 
#73
BY releasing ports of Star Fox and Zelda, then following that up with Mario 3D land and Mario Kart? All of those are console experiences in handheld form.....
They're also Nintendo 1st parties. The normal rules regarding games don't apply to them because people will buy them regardless of the format nine times out of ten.

Also, those same Nintendo 1st parties are also a big part of the reason Nintendo could bounce back (the price drop being the other). Not saying it's "lol doomed", but Vita doesn't have those.
 
#74
Sony's pockets are too deep to abandon it, and if they do, they'll never be able to market another handheld successfully again.
I'm not sure that you know what the term "deep pockets" means. Unless I'm misreading your post.

E3 is going to be huge for the Vita. Sony has too deliver the goods.
 
#75
BY releasing ports of Star Fox and Zelda, then following that up with Mario 3D land and Mario Kart? All of those are console experiences in handheld form.....
You're missing the point.

You can't get dual screens on a console right now.
You can't get touch screens on a console right now.
You can't get 3D (without glasses) on a console right now. You can get 3D but not without glasses.

That's what I mean by Nintendo choosing to make handhelds feel unique and different from consoles.

Maybe now that Wii U is coming out, now a console will have features like this.

People can keep harping over graphics, but if people want graphics, they'll buy a console.

The people who want amazing graphics on a handheld are a niche audience. Graphic whores will buy a console or a PC instead of a handheld.
 
#77
I think that's the core problem with it and the PSP (and possibly the PS3) - lack of killer apps. Outside of Monster Hunter in Japan the PSP never really got a killer app - that exclusive that everybody had to have and would go on to color the rest of the platform. We don't know if the Vita will get one either, but E3 is bound to reveal the second wave of games for it. Potentially it could end up getting the first good handheld Call of Duty.
Sony doesn't have a "killer app" in their entire IP library.
 
#78
Way too early to declare the Vita dead. It's suffering globally right now, both in hardware and software, but it has plenty of time to make a comeback. Look at exhibit A: the 3DS. Started off abysmally, but after a price-drop has found its second wind.

What the Vita REALLY needs right now is software tailored to it's demographic areas. Outside a one or two titles, there's NO compelling reason to leave the PSP yet, which is still receiving great games.
When people are comparing this to the 3DS, they have to remember that while the doomish scenario was happening on that platform, big games were on the way. Hell, we knew of big games before the system even launched. Super Mario 3D Land was revealed three or so weeks before the 3DS launched in the west, for example.

Honestly, we cannot say this for Vita at all. The two biggest games are Bioshock and Call of Duty, and those are only big because of the IP name. They're not guaranteed to do well at all on Vita, and the fact people don't frequently remember Call of Duty on PSP is a sign that just because it's on a new platform doesn't mean it will be the savior.
 
#85
I love my vita, and I am hoping it really takes off after E3 and especially the holidays.

Call of Duty Vita
Assassins Creed Vita
Killzone Vita

God of War Vita
LBP Vita

etc etc etc will really push sales and make room for new IP's.
eww

You are hoping for THAT? :/

Those games have been always better suited for home systems. The PSP had too much of these PS2-on-the-go experiences, and it sucked balls for that.
 
#89
gran turismo is/was the one multi-million-selling franchise that did well in every region. they might have botched it thanks to the psp and ps3 releases, but that doesn't mean they can't bring it back.
Did Gran Turismo do much for PSP's sales?

When I think of killer app, I think of software that sells hardware.

Like how Super Mario 3d Land and Mario Kart boosted 3DS's sales.
 
#90
God of War? GT?

Albeit PSP entries did suffer.
Again, the franchise Sony seems to be banking on are console franchises. I think the fact all of their PSP endeavors were some of the worst selling of their franchises is an indicator that perhaps people don't want to buy a handheld for those types of games, but will cave for a console release.

If you can imagine it, the PSP was the only platform that had a God of War and a Metal Gear Solid game that tanked in sales. Putting them on the Vita probably wouldn't change efforts, as I think consumers don't go out in droves for those games on a portable.
 
#91
I'm living in Vita's worst case scenario right now.
I STILL don't fucking have Gravity Daze!
I want that so badly.
I just don't understand why we're getting it almost 6 months after Japan did... :(
Yeah, what the hell, Sony? It's not like there's anything else to play on the thing. I'm so hard up for Vita games that I've been this close to buying the port of Rayman Origins, which is a game I already own, more times than I can count.
 
#93
Did Gran Turismo do much for PSP's sales?

When I think of killer app, I think of software that sells hardware.

Like how Super Mario 3d Land and Mario Kart boosted 3DS's sales.
Did they really? Or was it the price drop? Not even GTA4 boosted consoles sales, I think the days of a single game boosting sales are over.

Either way GT PSP is the best selling PSP game outside of Monster Hunter. It's at 3.7 million. If any Sony game sold PSPs that was it.
 
#96
Did they really? Or was it the price drop?

Either way GT PSP is the best selling PSP game outside of Monster Hunter. It's at 3.7 million. If any Sony game sold PSPs that was it.
The price drop was timed to be close to the launch of Nintendo's AAA software. If Sony lopped $50 off of the Vita's price right now, it still wouldn't sell.
 
#97
This is the major problem with Vita.

They keep trying to create handhelds that copy exactly what you can play on your home console. Nintendo tries to make their handhelds very, very different from consoles for a good reason. They try to create experiences with their handhelds that you can't get on your TV. You couldn't get stuff like dual screens or touch screens on a console before (well before Wii U).

Handhelds are meant to feel like a seperate and unique experience from your tv.

As soon as you try to make a handheld that reproduces console stuff, gamers will just say "Meh...I'd rather play the new MLB on a larger TV".
Yeah, I really don't give a shit about these kinds of games. I find playing these "console-esque" portable games to be kind of annoying too. They're simply not usually a good portable experience; in the end they end up more suited to being played at home, and since that is the case, I rather play it on a console. I want good portable games, not portable console games.

That said, some console games can make for decent portable experiences. Specifically games that are easy to pick and play with no real minimum amount of time required, or games with multiplayer that compliments a portable console.

I think MGS: Peace Walker was a great example of how to do a portable console game, but at the same time an example of the drawbacks.
 
#99
Did Gran Turismo do much for PSP's sales?

When I think of killer app, I think of software that sells hardware.

Like how Super Mario 3d Land and Mario Kart boosted 3DS's sales.
gran turismo and gran turismo 2 hit at the right time- when the n64 was looking bad and the saturn was dead. gt3 came out at the start of the ps2's life, and gt4 hit at the height of its popularity.

gt psp was released nearly five years after the system had released. it mattered as much as pokemon stadium 2 (3) did on the n64.