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Xbox 360 Sales May Exceed Microsoft's 10M Forecast

Nov 11, 2006
32,531
1
1,055
The 360 has easily reached the 7 million figure end of November. Stop looking at just NPD data, because they also don't have the exact numbers (especially since Walmart is left out/guessworked/or whatever else they do). Also, MS is going for a 10m wordwide shipped number not just North America.

I will just wait for the next MS financial statement. Considering a blatant lie on a financial statement is now allowed, they seem to be the best indication for me.
 

rs7k

Member
Jun 9, 2004
4,257
0
0
soundwave05 said:
MS will probably phase out the 360 Core next year, and drop the current Premium to $299.99. They could release a new "Super Premium" pack for $399.99 (100GB HDD for their movie d/l service), black casing, pack-in game included.

That would probably be a good fit.

Nintendo will probably react by going to $199.99 next spring as well.

I think Sony is in trouble looking at that .... can they afford to give the PS3 like a $100 price cut so soon? I don't think $50 cut will do as much for them because their price is still too high.

MS will never phase out the Core unless the Premium can drop down to like $149 at some point, and even then, they may want to have an even cheaper alternative to the Wii.

If they drop the Premium's price at 299, they're well positioned to fight Sony. And with a 199 Core, they're in a great spot to look like a great alternative to the Wii. I did say earlier that the Wii is going for a different market, but at $199 the 360 can slow Nintendo a lot IMO.
 

doicare

Member
May 14, 2006
2,132
0
0
Well their are two choices. Either they are over stocking, or all the companies around the world that track sales are significantly wrong.
 

speculawyer

Member
Sep 8, 2006
70,022
2
0
Silicon Valley, California
soundwave05 said:
MS will probably phase out the 360 Core next year, .

Good riddance. I still don't know why anyone would buy that considering that you'd have to buy at least a memory card to use it. That reduces the price difference to $60. And when you consider that the premium has component cables and a wireless controller, it is almost like you get the hard drive for free.
 

Tenacious-V

Thinks his PR is better than yours.
Dec 28, 2004
4,169
0
0
37
doicare said:
Well their are two choices. Either they are over stocking, or all the companies around the world that track sales are significantly wrong.

That's quite an ignorant statement.
 

soundwave05

Member
Sep 30, 2004
10,681
0
0
rs7k said:
MS will never phase out the Core unless the Premium can drop down to like $149 at some point, and even then, they may want to have an even cheaper alternative to the Wii.

If they drop the Premium's price at 299, they're well positioned to fight Sony. And with a 199 Core, they're in a great spot to look like a great alternative to the Wii. I did say earlier that the Wii is going for a different market, but at $199 the 360 can slow Nintendo a lot IMO.

Well, I don't think they'd go that far as it would probably incur heavier losses. Really the only thing that keeps the Core from being a premium is a 20GB HDD and the wireless controller versus wired.

And I gauruntee those two components don't cost MS $100 at the manufacturing level. $199.99 is a while away for any 360 SKU. There likely isn't a huge difference in the manufacturing cost of the current Core and Premium ... MS eats a heavier loss on the Core.
 

Mark Gonzales

Banned
Apr 30, 2006
781
0
0
doicare said:
Well their are two choices. Either they are over stocking, or all the companies around the world that track sales are significantly wrong.

NPD has about a 10-15 % error rate one way or the other. Therefore it is a relatively reliable metric for ballpark figures of amounts sold. Say it says 7 million there is almost a zero % chance that the actual amount isn't around 7-9 etc...
 

F#A#Oo

Banned
Apr 4, 2006
6,600
0
0
London...
I'm happy for MS but only on the console war front not any other sector. Over the past 2 years I've come to hate Sony and their people...

Wii60 Ftw...fcuk the PayStation 3...:)
 

Bebpo

Banned
Jun 7, 2004
30,394
8
0
40
Orange County, CA
MS will never phase out the core. The majority of sales in the videogame market come from the casuals with no money and come when the system reaches a point of <$200/$150/$100. Look at how hot GBA is still selling due to it's low price.

The core is MS's way of capturing that market. Do you think the casuals know what the hard drive does? Or will realize they are getting longer load times or no BC? Most of these people just want to put a game in and play it, they probably don't even care about HD because they just have a 20" 8 year old TV. A $200 core in another year or so will be MS's best bet for the casual market. Phasing it out would just be idiotic.
 

Arsenal

Member
May 17, 2006
1,028
0
0
doicare said:
prove it wrong then.:)

Companies that track sales figures don't track shipment figures. Why do we have to go through this idiocy in every thread like this?
 

Busty

Banned
Aug 26, 2006
16,935
1
0
speculawyer said:
Good riddance. I still don't know why anyone would buy that considering that you'd have to buy at least a memory card to use it. That reduces the price difference to $60. And when you consider that the premium has component cables and a wireless controller, it is almost like you get the hard drive for free.

All true. But here in Ol' Blighty (Britain for those not living in the UK) seeing all the ads for the 360 heavily feature the 'from £199.99' price point is a sizeable advantage as everyone I've spoken to knows that the PS3 is launching here for £425.00 (60 gig model.

A friend of mine is buying a 360 for his 9 year old son's Xmas. He's buying the core pack because frankly there really isn't any way his boy is going to need a hard drive attached to that system at his age. Seeing as won't be subscribing him to Live to buy any additional content let alone play online.

Do the Core packs put MS at an advantage, IMO, yes they do. But in the short term they are helping to scoop up customers that frankly don't and likely won't need a hard drive.
 

soundwave05

Member
Sep 30, 2004
10,681
0
0
The current Premium would be become the current Core. That's what I think will happen.

Throwing in a 20GB HDD and a wireless controller is a lot cheaper for MS than a straight $100 price cut. Then a "new" Premium bundle will take over the older one's place at $399.99.

I suspect Nintendo will go to $199.99 for the Wii in spring and $99.99 for the DS Lite in spring (just in time for Pokemon D/P and Brain Age 2) as well. It will be a very challenging next six months for Sony to say the least. On the plus side for them, I still see them beating MS handily in Europe and of course Japan.
 

doicare

Member
May 14, 2006
2,132
0
0
Arsenal said:
Companies that track sales figures don't track shipment figures. Why do we have to go through this idiocy in every thread like this?

I never said these companies track shipment figures, try again.
 

Mojovonio

Banned
Jun 21, 2006
11,485
0
0
bill0527 said:
That's what I said when I saw this article at Xbox360s IGN forum earlier.

I knew it'd make its way over to GAF... and the battle would begin.... again.

I never knew GAF had so many market analysts and all around business men who can make an educated assumption based on these press releases.

I just see these numbers as...... numbers.
 

jarrod

Banned
Jun 6, 2004
25,732
1
0
soundwave05 said:
The current Premium would be become the current Core. That's what I think will happen.

Throwing in a 20GB HDD and a wireless controller is a lot cheaper for MS than a straight $100 price cut. Then a "new" Premium bundle will take over the older one's place at $399.99.
Bingo. It's going to be a SKU reshuffle in place of a $100 price drop, but it'll still be percieved as a $100 price drop. It also benefits Microsoft twofold... (1) they'll finally have a unified platform (HDD equipped) for developer standards as well as pushing lucrative microtransactions and (2) it gives more wiggle room for future drops as well as a far greater return than a $200 core could ever offer (indeed a $200 core would throw 360 back into deep losses territory). Sony's mismanagement of almost everything has given Microsoft a lot of breathing room suddenly, I'd expect their dual SKU plan to probably shift accordingly.
 

bill0527

Member
Jul 21, 2004
12,030
2
1,600
Evansville, IN
Mojovonio said:
I never knew GAF had so many market analysts and all around business men who can make an educated assumption based on these press releases.

I just see these numbers as...... numbers.

Heh, I'm about to graduate with a BS in Finance and I'm astounded at the armchair analysts here at GAF. Its like their very lives depend on the outcome of these numbers and they will burn the village, rape the women, and kill the children, in order to get the numbers to come out in their favor.

I'm going to be doing this shit for a living in a few months, and even I don't care that much. To me its just a paycheck, to this forum, its their very heart and soul.
 

mm04

Member
Oct 7, 2006
3,901
0
0
In Between Realities
Arsenal said:
So you are just trolling? Because we are all talking about shipment figures.


Apparently his "argument" is that all of these retailers are just overstocking X360s hand over foot for shits and giggles. It's such a retarded argument. These purchasers who are making multi-million dollar decisions just like having mountains of X360s on hand and filling warehouses. Yep, that's likely every retailer out there is doing this same thing...it's a big ol' Microsoft funded conspiracy.

mm04
 

Mojovonio

Banned
Jun 21, 2006
11,485
0
0
bill0527 said:
Heh, I'm about to graduate with a BS in Finance and I'm astounded at the armchair analysts here at GAF. Its like their very lives depend on the outcome of these numbers and they will burn the village, rape the women, and kill the children, in order to get the numbers to come out in their favor.

I'm going to be doing this shit for a living in a few months, and even I don't care that much. To me its just a paycheck, to this forum, its their very heart and soul.

Maybe everyone here except a select few is a viral marketer and we're in a weird Twilight Zone type forum? Because I really can't see why people would care about these numbers so much.

Its like their income depends on the success of chosen platform.
 

Maximilian E.

AKA MS-Evangelist
Feb 17, 2006
2,383
0
1,325
41
People..
Forget the idea of MS getting rid of the Core-pack. It will show its value down the road..
besides, MS earns money from peripheral sales and the Core pack is "peripheral heaven" for MS..

The Core pack does have its points, for hardcore gamer, premium is the way to go.. but mainstream rules the sales of hardware during the whole cycle and the core pack will show its "strenght" down the road.. when its down at 199 and the premium is at 299.. then the core pack will start to sell really really well...
 

soundwave05

Member
Sep 30, 2004
10,681
0
0
Maximilian E. said:
People..
Forget the idea of MS getting rid of the Core-pack. It will show its value down the road..
besides, MS earns money from peripheral sales and the Core pack is "peripheral heaven" for MS..

The Core pack does have its points, for hardcore gamer, premium is the way to go.. but mainstream rules the sales of hardware during the whole cycle and the core pack will show its "strenght" down the road.. when its down at 199 and the premium is at 299.. then the core pack will start to sell really really well...


No one's saying the Core pack will be gone per se. But like Jarrod and I have said ... a SKU reshuffle is a smarter play for MS.

Make the current Premium the current Core for $299.99. Then build a new premium package at the $399.99 price point (100GB HDD, black casing, Project Gotham 3 bundled). This makes more sense financially for MS .... and also devs don't have to worry as much in the future about owners having a HDD or not.
 
Jun 7, 2006
6,118
0
0
Dr. Kitty Muffins said:
The November NPD is going to be hilarious. People will be overhyped, disappointed and suprised on so many levels simply due to their wild expectations.

It is always, ALWAYS like that. This is and remains the GAF.
 

jetjevons

Bish loves my games!
Jun 13, 2004
7,936
1
1,410
47
Santa Monica, Ca
What I don't get is: why would anyone, even the most hardcore of Sony fans, NOT want MS to have sold 10 million by the end of the year?

Surely the competition benefits everyone?
 

doicare

Member
May 14, 2006
2,132
0
0
Arsenal said:
So you are just trolling? Because we are all talking about shipment figures.

Trolling? what???

Let me break this down for you as it is obviously going right over your head. I know the article is about shipment figures. Im talking about how many are sat in warehouses or on a store shelf. I said either the companies that track how many have SOLD are either significantly wrong or retail is over stocking the xbox360. Why do i say this?

For example in just north america as of the end of september the xbox360 shipped 3.6 million. It normaly takes a few weeks for these to make it to a stores shelf, so even if you count all of octobers sales then the xbox360 according to npd had sold 2.9 million. That leaves 700,000 unsold xbox360's. 700,000 isn't a small number, either it is being over stocked or npd is significantly wrong with their numbers.
 

jarrod

Banned
Jun 6, 2004
25,732
1
0
Maximilian E. said:
People..
Forget the idea of MS getting rid of the Core-pack. It will show its value down the road..
besides, MS earns money from peripheral sales and the Core pack is "peripheral heaven" for MS..

The Core pack does have its points, for hardcore gamer, premium is the way to go.. but mainstream rules the sales of hardware during the whole cycle and the core pack will show its "strenght" down the road.. when its down at 199 and the premium is at 299.. then the core pack will start to sell really really well...
Evidently the core pack's lone benefits are the PR snippet of saying Xbox 360 is only $299 and making the premium pack look desirable... because in practice it's moving a vast minority of the 360 units so far and hasn't made much headway, if any at all, with consumers.

Microsoft's not going to "get rid of" the core pack... they're just going to throw a 20GB HDD and wireless pad/headset in there. That's going to happen well before we see any 360 SKU priced at $199.
 

Arsenal

Member
May 17, 2006
1,028
0
0
soundwave05 said:
No one's saying the Core pack will be gone per se. But like Jarrod and I have said ... a SKU reshuffle is a smarter play for MS.

Make the current Premium the current Core for $299.99. Then build a new premium package at the $399.99 price point (100GB HDD, black casing, Project Gotham 3 bundled). This makes more sense financially for MS .... and also devs don't have to worry as much in the future about owners having a HDD or not.

I don't think it would be smarter at all. If anything, the initial success of the Wii and the fact that the PS2 is still outselling the 360 ensures that MS must keep the core sku in order to compete.
 

h1nch

Member
May 10, 2005
5,025
1
0
San Antonio TX
jetjevons said:
What I don't get is: why would anyone, even the most hardcore of Sony fans, NOT want MS to have sold 10 million by the end of the year?

Surely the competition benefits everyone?

yeah but sony beating up ms benefits sony fans.

well not really, but it makes them feel better inside. :lol

obviously it works both ways for ms fanboys as well.
 

Mojovonio

Banned
Jun 21, 2006
11,485
0
0
jetjevons said:
What I don't get is: why would anyone, even the most hardcore of Sony fans, NOT want MS to have sold 10 million by the end of the year?

Surely the competition benefits everyone?

That's a rational way of thinking. It doesn't apply to these debates.

Imagine if you will, Sony selling 15 million unites each year for the extent of the PS3s cycle, MS quits the console market, and Nintendo decides to stick to handhelds.

Now Sony is the only console maker.

Lets make some predictions!

Mine.

-PS4=$1000

-Sony uses the PS4 to push some other format or technology, pushes the cost onto consumers.

-Madden games get worse and worse.
 

Mrbob

Member
Jun 7, 2004
63,747
6
0
The hdd is pretty much a fixed cost that doesn't go down in time, regardless of the size.

I tend to agree with Bebpo. If there is a $100 pricedrop across the road that will drive more systems into homes. Imagine having a $199 core system, where someone can buy the system, GTA4, and Halo 3 and come home with all of it for a little over 300 dollars. Heck even with a premium 360 they can do the same for 100 dollars more and get all that for the price of a ps3, or less.
 

jarrod

Banned
Jun 6, 2004
25,732
1
0
Arsenal said:
I don't think it would be smarter at all. If anything, the initial success of the Wii and the fact that the PS2 is still outselling the 360 ensures that MS must keep the core sku in order to compete.
The problem there is that Microsoft actually wants 360 hardware to make a return sometime soon... and that's far easier to do with a SKU reshuffle versus a $199 tard pack. Plus it brings other benefits, like standardizing the userbase and making a mint off microtransactions.

The current SKU setup won't be getting an across the board $100 price cut anytime soon... Sony's fumbling's ensured that.
 

Xamdou

Member
Oct 8, 2006
7,759
0
0
Xbox 360 right sold 8,070,683 units worldwide, and it isn't even X-mas yet. Still 3 weeks until the end of the year and 10million units sold isn't so grim looking.

There will be a X-mas rush with lot's of Xbox 360's in shelves and no PS3's in sight, people will opt for the 360.
 

choc_cake

Banned
Sep 11, 2006
324
0
0
Karma Kramer said:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061206/tc_nm/microsoft_xbox360_dc_1


Microsoft to ship over 10 million Xbox 360 units


LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq:MSFT - news) on Wednesday said expects to have shipped more than 10 million units of its new Xbox 360 video game console to retailers by the end of this holiday season.

"This holiday, we expect to have sold in excess of 10 million units worldwide and an expected catalog of 160 high-definition games," a Microsoft spokeswoman said.

That "sold" number refers to units "sold into retail" and refers to units in transit, units sitting in store inventories and machines sold to consumers, the spokeswoman said.

Microsoft has previously forecast global shipments of 10 million by the end of the calendar year, as well as shipments of 13 million by 15 million by the end of its 2007 fiscal year that ends June 30.

The world's biggest software maker offered no further updates.

All Microsoft really has to do is drop the price $100 on both SKUs and have some great games that a ton of people want and it is all over.
 

neojubei

Will drop pants for Sony.
Dec 21, 2005
26,820
0
1,190
Can someone explain to me what will happen with MS sells 10 million xbox 360s? This does not mean that I cannot buy the Ps3 in the store? will it? I doubt it, since there will be Ps3s in stores for people to buy, the same with Wii.

So what does 10million do anyway for MS? Bragging rights? large e-penis?
 

Pellham

Banned
Jun 11, 2004
6,725
0
0
Bebpo said:
MS will never phase out the core. The majority of sales in the videogame market come from the casuals with no money and come when the system reaches a point of <$200/$150/$100. Look at how hot GBA is still selling due to it's low price.

The core is MS's way of capturing that market. Do you think the casuals know what the hard drive does? Or will realize they are getting longer load times or no BC? Most of these people just want to put a game in and play it, they probably don't even care about HD because they just have a 20" 8 year old TV. A $200 core in another year or so will be MS's best bet for the casual market. Phasing it out would just be idiotic.

Yeah the core definately needs to drop the $200 range. It'll force Nintendo to drop the Wii's price to a more reasonable $150 and Sony will be forced to pricedrop the PS3 sooner than it can afford to.
 

jarrod

Banned
Jun 6, 2004
25,732
1
0
Mrbob said:
The hdd is pretty much a fixed cost that doesn't go down in time, regardless of the size.
Unfortunately it's still negligible in comparison to the chipset costs, even when factoring in cost reductions and die shrinks. And the current core is hugely unpopular and fragments the userbase... really it never should've existed, and Sony's now given Microsoft the opportunity to correct that error. ;)
 

doicare

Member
May 14, 2006
2,132
0
0
S8 RoXoRz said:
Xbox 360 right sold 8,070,683 units worldwide, and it isn't even X-mas yet. Still 3 weeks until the end of the year and 10million units sold isn't so grim looking.

There will be a X-mas rush with lot's of Xbox 360's in shelves and no PS3's in sight, people will opt for the 360.

:lol :lol A message to all junior members, please don't quote nextgenwars sales numbers, their a joke.
 

soundwave05

Member
Sep 30, 2004
10,681
0
0
The initial success of the Wii is primarily the controller. People need to understand that.

The mere $50 difference between the Wii and 360 Core right now isn't doing shit to slow down the Wii craze.

The Wii is a hot item because Nintendo banked on there being a lot of people who want gaming to go back to its accessible/everyone-try-this roots of the NES/Famicom era. That's why the platform is successful.

The $100 price difference for the GameCube never really helped it, arguably given the direction of the GCN, Nintendo probably would've been better off going with a $299.99 GCN with DVD playback + HDD and more RAM.
 

Dahbomb

Member
Jan 18, 2006
70,947
6
0
32
jetjevons said:
What I don't get is: why would anyone, even the most hardcore of Sony fans, NOT want MS to have sold 10 million by the end of the year?

Surely the competition benefits everyone?
It's not about a "want" it's about reality and the reality is that Microsoft reaching $10 million by end of the year (as in SOLD units) is highly unlikely.
 

gamergirly

Member
Nov 17, 2004
10,288
14
1,475
"The South"
www.techpedition.com
neojubei said:
Can someone explain to me what will happen with MS sells 10 million xbox 360s? This does not mean that I cannot buy the Ps3 in the store? will it? I doubt it, since there will be Ps3s in stores for people to buy, the same with Wii.

So what does 10million do anyway for MS? Bragging rights? large e-penis?

It started when Microsoft said "The first to 10 million wins"
 

jarrod

Banned
Jun 6, 2004
25,732
1
0
Pellham said:
Yeah the core definately needs to drop the $200 range. It'll force Nintendo to drop the Wii's price to a more reasonable $150 and Sony will be forced to pricedrop the PS3 sooner than it can afford to.
It'd be nice... but unfortunately Microsoft doesn't seem interested in bleeding Sony dry anymore, rather it seems they'd like to actually making money on this videogames thing. Too bad, the poetic justice would've been sweet.
 

Arsenal

Member
May 17, 2006
1,028
0
0
doicare said:
Trolling? what???

Let me break this down for you as it is obviously going right over your head. I know the article is about shipment figures. Im talking about how many are sat in warehouses or on a store shelf. I said either the companies that track how many have SOLD are either significantly wrong or retail is over stocking the xbox360. Why do i say this?

For example in just north america as of the end of september the xbox360 shipped 3.6 million. It normaly takes a few weeks for these to make it to a stores shelf, so even if you count all of octobers sales then the xbox360 according to npd had sold 2.9 million. That leaves 700,000 unsold xbox360's. 700,000 isn't a small number, either it is being over stocked or npd is significantly wrong with their numbers.

Assuming these numbers are correct... Do you know how many retailers there are in North America? For some reason I am thinking 25,000. By your numbers translates into 28 units per store. For September, that seems about right. For the holidays, that would be vastly understocked.
 
Nov 11, 2006
32,531
1
1,055
Dahbomb said:
It's not about a "want" it's about reality and the reality is that Microsoft reaching $10 million by end of the year (as in SOLD units) is highly unlikely.

And MS has already said that all their numbers are shipped numbers for us. For MS, when the console leaves the distribution center and goes to a retailer it equals sold for them.

And once again, simple economics, retailers just don't stock up on goods for the heck of it.
 

jetjevons

Bish loves my games!
Jun 13, 2004
7,936
1
1,410
47
Santa Monica, Ca
Mojovonio said:
That's a rational way of thinking. It doesn't apply to these debates.

Imagine if you will, Sony selling 15 million unites each year for the extent of the PS3s cycle, MS quits the console market, and Nintendo decides to stick to handhelds.

Now Sony is the only console maker.

Lets make some predictions!

Mine.

-PS4=$1000

-Sony uses the PS4 to push some other format or technology, pushes the cost onto consumers.

-Madden games get worse and worse.

Exactly what I was thinking. Who wants an EA-style monopoly in hardware?
 

Vrolokus

Banned
May 28, 2006
1,591
0
0
Arizona (USA)
web.mac.com
neojubei said:
Can someone explain to me what will happen with MS sells 10 million xbox 360s? This does not mean that I cannot buy the Ps3 in the store? will it? I doubt it, since there will be Ps3s in stores for people to buy, the same with Wii.

So what does 10million do anyway for MS? Bragging rights? large e-penis?

The conventional wisdom is that 10 million is the magic number that makes 3rd parties sit up and take notice. If you have 10 million installed, a 3rd party can't afford not to put games on your platform.
 

Maximilian E.

AKA MS-Evangelist
Feb 17, 2006
2,383
0
1,325
41
jarrod said:
Evidently the core pack's lone benefits are the PR snippet of saying Xbox 360 is only $299 and making the premium pack look desirable... because in practice it's moving a vast minority of the 360 units so far and hasn't made much headway, if any at all, with consumers.

Microsoft's not going to "get rid of" the core pack... they're just going to throw a 20GB HDD and wireless pad/headset in there. That's going to happen well before we see any 360 SKU priced at $199.

I actually don´t think so..
I think that MS has higher profit-margins by selling the HDD as a peripheral than included in the premium pack.
I´ve been hearing lots of people here preparing their x-mas gift with buying a core-pack and maybe let others buy the hdd, some games, wireless etc etc..

I for one would "love" for MS to throw in an hdd in the core pack as well, so that devs can take advantage of the hdd.. but I also can see benefits from the core-pack as well..

During 2007, the core pack should be nearing the 200 dollar barrier easily. We´ll have to see what kind of effect the change to 65nm can make on the cost of the machine.

I wouldn´t bet my money on MS adding a hdd to the core pack, it "makes sense" down the road..