Xbox 360 Sales May Exceed Microsoft's 10M Forecast

Sep 11, 2006
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neojubei said:
Can someone explain to me what will happen with MS sells 10 million xbox 360s? This does not mean that I cannot buy the Ps3 in the store? will it? I doubt it, since there will be Ps3s in stores for people to buy, the same with Wii.

So what does 10million do anyway for MS? Bragging rights? large e-penis?
Well, since Sony is basically selling the majority of their PS3 units at $600 and people are hooking it up to the TV via composite because they don't know better and because you can't find one. It basically means that Microsoft is way ahead of Sony (just like Sony was ahead of Microsoft last generation) and also since Microsoft has a large library of exclusive titles that are going to be hot that means more consoles sold and it also means that they need to drop their prices bigtime and that will be the end of Sony this generation (unless they decide they are going to bankrupt the company it is a big deal).

The less likely people are to buy a PS3 before Christmas (non hardcore), the less likely they are to buy one after Christmas. This actually happened early this year for the Xbox 360 and it will happen to the PS3 (expecially since the price is so high).

Less sales mean less exclusives, less exclusives means less sales.

Sony is already doing horrible with the PSP and a lot of developers are not as trusting of Sony as they once were and it has shaken a lot of that trust and now with the failed PS3 launch and high pricing it does not look promising for the developers.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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If the Wii has proven that people are interested in having a good gaming system without having to spend a bundle on extras, then I really don't see the benefit of reshuffling the Xbox 360 hardware setup with hdds.

If it is true that most people just want to buy a system and game, then having the X360 at closer to mass market price is a better idea. Over 100 million PS2 owners didn't require a hdd, so why should X360 consumers?
 
Oct 12, 2005
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neojubei said:
Can someone explain to me what will happen with MS sells 10 million xbox 360s? This does not mean that I cannot buy the Ps3 in the store? will it? I doubt it, since there will be Ps3s in stores for people to buy, the same with Wii.

So what does 10million do anyway for MS? Bragging rights? large e-penis?
It means they are in a much better position to control the market and have exclusive software that you want to buy. It also means they would be, for the time being, the primary development platform. Imagine you are a third-party: is your concern to develop for 10MM potential customers or 1MM?? (also the "me too" affect of people wanting to have the most popular/installed console, i.e. one of the primary reasons the PS2 sold so well)

err.. i mean it increases the size of the microsoft corporate "e-penis" :lol
 
Oct 8, 2006
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Well we can all make assumptions, but the fact is the Xbox 360 will sell like hotcakes this X-mas holiday season.

Next year will the Xbox 360's greatest year with so much game exclusives coming out for it that it will double or even triple it's current fan base.

Spring 2007 Lineup:
Lost Planet
Fusion Frenzy
Shadowrun
Crackdown
Blue Dragon
Too Human
Forza Motorsport 2

Fall 2007 Lineup:
Halo3
Mass Effect
Bioshock
Lost Odyssey
Kingdom Under Fire RPG

Plus several PS3 titles that were once exclusives coming to the Xbox 360 as well: Armored Core 4, Resident Evil 5, GTA 5, Assassins Creed.
 
Sep 30, 2004
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Mrbob said:
If the Wii has proven that people are interested in having a good gaming system without having to spend a bundle on extras, then I really don't see the benefit of reshuffling the Xbox 360 hardware setup with hdds.

If it is true that most people just want to buy a system and game, then having the X360 at closer to mass market price is a better idea. Over 100 million PS2 owners didn't require a hdd, so why should X360 consumers?

Actually the 360 Core is the only current "new" console SKU that doesn't have some kind of internal storage. I would suspect future Wii models will get larger and larger internal flash memory sizes (1GB, 2GB, etc.) as the price of that drops within whatever profit margins Nintendo sees fit.

The Wii SKU is very much a bundle. Everything you need aside from a second controller is pretty much in the box.
 
Jul 6, 2004
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Mrbob said:
If the Wii has proven that people are interested in having a good gaming system without having to spend a bundle on extras, then I really don't see the benefit of reshuffling the Xbox 360 hardware setup with hdds.

If it is true that most people just want to buy a system and game, then having the X360 at closer to mass market price is a better idea. Over 100 million PS2 owners didn't require a hdd, so why should X360 consumers?
Because it goes against the ideals and promises set by Microsoft. The last thing Microsoft wants to do is to piss off their hardcore audience and friendly developers by cropping traditional features from the XBox brand, important features that once served to differentiate them from their competitors. It's the nature of the beast. It would be like Nintendo putting a $600 mass market price tag on a future console and stressing "power," "graphics," and "4D." That's not them; that will never be them. And if they ever elect to pull such a stunt, I'll jump ship faster than a mofo.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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doicare said:
Trolling? what???

Let me break this down for you as it is obviously going right over your head. I know the article is about shipment figures. Im talking about how many are sat in warehouses or on a store shelf. I said either the companies that track how many have SOLD are either significantly wrong or retail is over stocking the xbox360. Why do i say this?

For example in just north america as of the end of september the xbox360 shipped 3.6 million. It normaly takes a few weeks for these to make it to a stores shelf, so even if you count all of octobers sales then the xbox360 according to npd had sold 2.9 million. That leaves 700,000 unsold xbox360's. 700,000 isn't a small number, either it is being over stocked or npd is significantly wrong with their numbers.
NPD's 2.9m is for the US only. So that 700k includes what has been sold in Canada and Mexico as well (several hundred k there). so at most there's 500k in stock or in transit. Which is actually quite low.

I don't see what's so unreasonable about that.

doicare said:
prove it wrong then.:)
I think the burdon of proof lies with those making the ignorant statements. :p

jaypah said:
:lol i can't believe you answered F_C in an Xbox360 thread. no diss to F_C but he's pretty loyal.
Yeah, I know. :(
 
May 14, 2006
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Arsenal said:
Assuming these numbers are correct... Do you know how many retailers there are in North America? For some reason I am thinking 25,000. By your numbers translates into 28 units per store. For September, that seems about right. For the holidays, that would be vastly understocked.
Are their 25,000 retailers tho? With 218,000 sold in october and roughly 500,000 sold in november according to latest reports even if they sell 1 million in decemeber and microsoft ship just 2 million to north america this quarter that would mean 1 million xbox360's sat in warehouses or on a store shelf.
 

duk

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May 10, 2006
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doicare said:
Are their 25,000 retailers tho? With 218,000 sold in october and roughly 500,000 sold in november according to latest reports even if they sell 1 million in decemeber and microsoft ship just 2 million to north america this quarter that would mean 1 million xbox260's sat in warehouses or on a store shelf.
500k on store shelves and 500k in transit
 
Nov 11, 2006
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doicare said:
Are their 25,000 retailers tho? With 218,000 sold in october and roughly 500,000 sold in november according to latest reports even if they sell 1 million in decemeber and microsoft ship just 2 million to north america this quarter that would mean 1 million xbox260's sat in warehouses or on a store shelf.
MS doesn't have to ship 2 mill to NA only, it can be wordwide.
 
Jun 6, 2004
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Mrbob said:
If the Wii has proven that people are interested in having a good gaming system without having to spend a bundle on extras, then I really don't see the benefit of reshuffling the Xbox 360 hardware setup with hdds.

If it is true that most people just want to buy a system and game, then having the X360 at closer to mass market price is a better idea. Over 100 million PS2 owners didn't require a hdd, so why should X360 consumers?
It's not so much an either/or situation though (ie: $199 Core vs SKU reshuffle)... Sony's overpricing has shifted the landscape, it's made Microsoft's competitive needs lessen a bit and given them space to refocus their strategy around profiting. Had we seen a $399 PS3 this year (as Microsoft no doubt expected to) we'd have definitely seen a $100 price drop early next year. But that didn't happen, so now the demands behind a $199 Core (or a Core at all) sort of fly out the window. Microsoft can get the same percieved effect with a SKU reshuffle instead and make a far greater return on hardware at the same time... it's win/win for them.
 
Jun 12, 2006
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Bebpo said:
Yeah. They're already selling the X360 for the same price as the Wii in Japan, so they should just drop the $50 on the core and do the same in the US. Then low-budget consumers will have to choose between the do and that should be very beneficial for MS.
You all need to learn how imperfectly competitive markets work. Whenever one company drops a price, the other companies in the same market will as long as they are able to(Sony might not be able to). So the second Nintendo hears about Microsoft dropping the 360 price, expect them to react quickly. Nintendo will at least match the price drop and perhaps exceed it.
 
May 14, 2006
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GhaleonEB said:
NPD's 2.9m is for the US only. So that 700k includes what has been sold in Canada and Mexico as well (several hundred k there). There's about 100,000 retail outlets for the 360, so that leaves 4-5 systems on average in stock or in transit, using your numbers.
I thought 3.6 million shipped was for north america not all of america. Can you proove otherwise? Can you also proove that their are 100,000 retailer outlets for the xbox360?
 
Sep 30, 2004
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Nintendo should have some good SKUs in 2007 too.

Wii + Wii Sports = $199.99
Wii + Wii Sports + Wii Play + 2 controllers = $249.99?
Wii + Smash Bros. Brawl + extra Classic Controller = $249.99?

Would be good bundles on their part. I think Wii Sports + Wii Play should be integrated onto one disc in the future (kinda like how SMB + Duck Hunt had sometimes a third game added on).

They definitely need an SKU with 2 controllers at some point though. That's the biggest complaint about the Wii I hear right now, people want 2 controllers right away, especailly given the social appeal of the console.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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The Core won't go away. When the Core is $199 and the Premium is $299, the Core will look quite attractive. I can see those price points being in place when Halo 3 ships; it will move then, and quite nicely. (as someone who wants the HDD standard, I don't like the Core one bit. But I think MS will be ultimately vindicated in the marketplace)
 
May 14, 2006
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cartoon_soldier said:
MS doesn't have to ship 2 mill to NA only, it can be wordwide.
Yes and if they only ship 2 million worldwide then they would have only shipped 8 million not 10 million like they claim they will. I don't even see how they can ship 2 million to the rest of the world anyway, the demand isn't their.
 
Nov 11, 2006
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doicare said:
Yes and if they only ship 2 million worldwide then they would have only shipped 8 million not 10 million like they claim they will. I don't even see how they can ship 2 million to the rest of the world anyway, the demand isn't their.
Well, lets see. We will have a financial release after the year is over and the quarterly financial statements provide good accurate numbers.
 
Sep 30, 2004
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The problem is it may not be so easy to drop the price of the Core.

People think MS loses the same amount on a Premium vs. a Core, but this is likely not the case. The Core exists primarily so MS could get away by saying their system is $299.99 .... when it's somewhat stretching it.

They don't manufacture as many of the Core system either. What the "core" system does for both MS and Sony is it allows them to say they have a cheaper price. However they take a bigger loss on the Core system.

This is also why neither Sony or MS manufacture as many Core units as Premium packages. It simply costs them a lot more money.

MS would lose a shit-ton on $199.99 Core packages any time before 2008 most likely. A HDD is a common component, MS can leverage that price moreso. The 360 chipset though ... that's still a very high end chipset, and ATi/IBM are not likely to be willing to give MS that big of a break on those components so quickly.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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doicare said:
I thought 3.6 million shipped was for north america not all of america. Can you proove otherwise? Can you also proove that their are 100,000 retailer outlets for the xbox360?
You misread me. 2.9m is for the US only; you're saying 3.6m is for all of NA. I'm just running with YOUR number for argument's sake. The 2.9m is NPD, just search last month's thread, or the prediction thread, for it. I don't need to justify it.

I pulled the 100k figure from my post since I was mistaken; I recalled the number from the NPD thread below, but mixed it up with his "per store per WEEK" figure. I found that when i went to double-check it.

Our channel checks are conducted by visiting a very small slice of the over 25,000 retail stores that carry video games in the U.S. We note that for a given game, a difference of only one unit per store per week could result in a difference of 100,000 units in volume, or $3 – 6 million in retail sales for the month. Therefore, we caution investors to use our estimates as only one data point in a sea of information.
My bad. So 25k stores in the US still leaves a pretty small pile of units on hand or in transit, about 20 per store.



http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=132165
 
May 17, 2006
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doicare said:
Are their 25,000 retailers tho? With 218,000 sold in october and roughly 500,000 sold in november according to latest reports even if they sell 1 million in decemeber and microsoft ship just 2 million to north america this quarter that would mean 1 million xbox260's sat in warehouses or on a store shelf.
First of all - shipped in Microsoft terms means that it has left their warehouse and is in route to a retailer. Second of all, how can you make judgments about something being overstocked if you have no idea how many stores they are stocking? I am just guessing here, but in the ramp up for the holiday season, I don't think 1 million units (40 per store) on store shelves is really that much. The goal here is to be a mass market product that is available to everyone everywhere - that takes shelf space. Lastly, the only thing accomplished by a retailer in overstocking a product is that they hurt themselves - they will never do it on purpose, and they certainly don't care about fullfilling an arbitrary number for Microsoft. These conspiracy theories about MS manipulating hundreds of companies to one up Sony in a PR battle is just ridiculous.
 
May 14, 2006
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GhaleonEB said:
You misread me. 2.9m is for the US only; you're saying 3.6m is for all of NA. I'm just running with YOUR number for argument's sake. The 2.9m is NPD, just search last month's thread, or the prediction thread, for it. I don't need to justify it.
I know 2.9 million is npd and that is just north america. What im talking about is microsofts number of 3.6 million shipped to north america. Is it north america only for the shipped number or does that actually include canada and mexico.
 

Tenacious-V

Thinks his PR is better than yours.
Dec 28, 2004
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doicare said:
I know 2.9 million is npd and that is just north america. What im talking about is microsofts number of 3.6 million shipped to north america. Is it north america only for the shipped number or does that actually include canada and mexico.
No, 2.9 million is NPD which is United States ONLY. North America consists of Canada, USA, and Mexico. NPD does not track anything for Canada and Mexico.
 

----

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Jun 10, 2004
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MS will ship over 2 million in North America in the 4th quarter of this year. They will probably ship almost 2 million to the rest of the world as well. Going from 6 to 10 million shipped seems reasonable at this time of the year.
 
Mar 31, 2006
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soundwave05 said:
Actually the 360 Core is the only current "new" console SKU that doesn't have some kind of internal storage. I would suspect future Wii models will get larger and larger internal flash memory sizes (1GB, 2GB, etc.) as the price of that drops within whatever profit margins Nintendo sees fit.

The Wii SKU is very much a bundle. Everything you need aside from a second controller is pretty much in the box.
I actually think if MS was gonna include anything, I'd say it would be a memory card (maybe a small XBLA game preinstalled on it?). From their standpoint it'd basically be a "free" pack-in (64MB flash memory? peanuts). Then again, for people who do buy memory cards, they probably get a huge mass of profits. When you can get 1GB SD cards for $20 retail, I find it hard to believe they're anywhere near losing money on a $40 64MB card, lol. So they may want to keep the card separate and get money from that...

Also, millions of people spent an extra $20-$40 on virtually required PS2 memory cards, and had no problems with it, so who knows if people will still want to do that in 2008 or whatever. Hard to say.
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Jun 10, 2004
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considering how many times they've had to adjust their forecasts downwards, the odd upward movement shouldn't be that surprising. Isn't that still less than or slower than their original original forecasts?
 
May 17, 2006
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soul creator said:
Also, millions of people spent an extra $20-$40 on virtually required PS2 memory cards, and had no problems with it, so who knows if people will still want to do that in 2008 or whatever. Hard to say.
It sure didn't stop people in 2006 :lol
 
Mar 31, 2006
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Arsenal said:
It sure didn't stop people in 2006 :lol
I still can't believe official PS2 8MB memory cards still retail for $24.99 :lol

Shows how much of a beast the PS2 is. Although when I worked at gamestop, I remember a few customers buying a system, but not buying a memory card...that was always funny to see. I guess they just leave their system on all the time!
 

hadareud

The Translator
Oct 18, 2004
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mrklaw said:
considering how many times they've had to adjust their forecasts downwards, the odd upward movement shouldn't be that surprising. Isn't that still less than or slower than their original original forecasts?
I think they've adjusted their forecasts downwards once. From 10 million units by the time to competition launches to 10 million by the end of the year.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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mrklaw said:
considering how many times they've had to adjust their forecasts downwards, the odd upward movement shouldn't be that surprising. Isn't that still less than or slower than their original original forecasts?
How many times was that? The goal as stated in MS's quarterly reports and interviews was always 10m by the end of this calendar year. However:

1) In one interview, Shane Kim said that was sold to consumers, not retail.
2) In a couple interviews, Peter Moore said the 10m target was by the time "the competition gets to market". This was quickly revised to "by the end of the calendar year".

I don't recall ever seeing anything different than the above. It's possible they once had a different year-end goal given the Moore and Kim comments, but they never specified it. (Did I miss it?) And they've been consistant about the 10m goal for a good six months or so now. I think that's one adjustment, at most.
 
Mar 22, 2006
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soundwave05 said:
The problem is it may not be so easy to drop the price of the Core.

People think MS loses the same amount on a Premium vs. a Core, but this is likely not the case. The Core exists primarily so MS could get away by saying their system is $299.99 .... when it's somewhat stretching it.

They don't manufacture as many of the Core system either. What the "core" system does for both MS and Sony is it allows them to say they have a cheaper price. However they take a bigger loss on the Core system.

This is also why neither Sony or MS manufacture as many Core units as Premium packages. It simply costs them a lot more money.

MS would lose a shit-ton on $199.99 Core packages any time before 2008 most likely. A HDD is a common component, MS can leverage that price moreso. The 360 chipset though ... that's still a very high end chipset, and ATi/IBM are not likely to be willing to give MS that big of a break on those components so quickly.
You have it all backwards, actually. HDD is nearly a fixed cost. You can increase the size over the years, but there is a certain cost under which you will not drop, no matter what (check the evolution of retail prices for HDDs if you don't believe it). Regarding the GPU and CPU, unlike with the XBox 1 where MS bought chips from Intel and Nvidia at a fixed price, this time they bought the IP, and pay royalties to IBM and ATI. Which means they can take advantage of switch to smaller processes and of better yields over time in order to lower costs.

So at the moment, they probably lose less on the Premium than on the Core, but future cost reduction will comparatively help them sustain the Core price drops more. At the moment, the Core's purpose is mostly a marketing bullet point (we are under $300). But the Core package was designed with cost reduction in mind, in order to attract very cost-conscious emerging markets such as India and China in a couple of years.
 
May 14, 2006
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Arsenal said:
First of all - shipped in Microsoft terms means that it has left their warehouse and is in route to a retailer. Second of all, how can you make judgments about something being overstocked if you have no idea how many stores they are stocking? I am just guessing here, but in the ramp up for the holiday season, I don't think 1 million units (40 per store) on store shelves is really that much. The goal here is to be a mass market product that is available to everyone everywhere - that takes shelf space. Lastly, the only thing accomplished by a retailer in overstocking a product is that they hurt themselves - they will never do it on purpose, and they certainly don't care about fullfilling an arbitrary number for Microsoft. These conspiracy theories about MS manipulating hundreds of companies to one up Sony in a PR battle is just ridiculous.
Well if shipped to them means on route to retailer then that means 2.7 million sold as of when they said they had shipped 3.6 million not 2.9 million. They sold 218,000 in ocotber, roughly 500,000 in november and their not going to sell more than 1 million in december so thats a total of no more than 1.75 million. Are they going to sell 2.25 million to the rest of the world?
 
Jun 7, 2004
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Why do we insist on using NPD and a host of other incomplete trackers to post incomplete sales totals again? I still agree with using shipped figures. We don't know all the markets they ship to, especially in EU and Asia. It's not quite fair to them (or even Nintendo, if you will) to lose a whole bunch of sales in these comparisons. All shipped figured normalize over time. PS1, DC, N64, Saturn...you name it. They all normalize over the life of the system. I think it would save a lot of needless debate. Oh well, the 360 is looking quite attractive, so it's not suprising it'll sell well. They need to run the Halo3 ad a few more times before Xmas to boost sales further. People will see that and Gears and it'll make the 360 an impulse purchase. I've settled on owning both a 360 and a PS3 this gen. If Amazon did crash, I might have one now. Definitely once I buy a good HDTV next year. 10M is a good sign for their production issues. Seems they're churning out a lot of systems now. PEACE.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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doicare said:
Well if shipped to them means on route to retailer then that means 2.7 million sold as of when they said they had shipped 3.6 million not 2.9 million. They sold 218,000 in ocotber, roughly 500,000 in november and their not going to sell more than 1 million in december so thats a total of no more than 1.75 million. Are they going to sell 2.25 million to the rest of the world?
1) No, the 2.9m in NPD. Not much to argue about there. That is how many had been sold by retailers, period.
2) As for the second part, let's at least wait until this exact time tomorrow to start making absolute statements about what the 360 sold in November. :p
 
Sep 26, 2006
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wow the damage control is thick in here! why is it that when anything positive comes of the 360 its a joke(new york times article) or just wrong? People fear change. just accept it. it'll make your lives easier.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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GhaleonEB said:
1) No, the 2.9m in NPD. Not much to argue about there. That is how many had been sold by retailers, period.
2) As for the second part, let's at least wait until this exact time tomorrow to start making absolute statements about what the 360 sold in November. :p
Oh that is tommorrow? Hellz yeah.

Tommorrow NPD may go down as the greatest in GAF history. Although holiday season next year will be good too.
 
Jun 6, 2004
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Pimpwerx said:
I still agree with using shipped figures.
Which works fine, until we want to compare anything with the PlayStations. Regional sales tracking is basically the only way to get any accurate insight into competitive game platforms... using shipment data only skews any aatempted comparison unrealistically in Sony's favor (see: PSP vs DS).
 
May 17, 2006
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doicare said:
Well if shipped to them means on route to retailer then that means 2.7 million sold as of when they said they had shipped 3.6 million not 2.9 million. They sold 218,000 in ocotber, roughly 500,000 in november and their not going to sell more than 1 million in december so thats a total of no more than 1.75 million. Are they going to sell 2.25 million to the rest of the world?
This is not a sales thread. There are plenty of other threads to speculate about those numbers. Retailers will always have inventory and there will always be units in transit. Shipped will not equal sales until sometime after the product is discontinued so whatever warped line of reasoning you are trying to follow here just doesn't make sense.
 
May 14, 2006
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GhaleonEB said:
1) No, the 2.9m in NPD. Not much to argue about there. That is how many had been sold by retailers, period.
2) As for the second part, let's at least wait until this exact time tomorrow to start making absolute statements about what the 360 sold in November. :p
Ok thats fine, i agree it's best to wait as well. I'm just going to say one last thing, ms have shipped 6 million and according to most people around here they have sold anywhere between 4.5-5 million. If they plan on shipping 4 million more to make 10 million i don't see how they will also sell 4 million with the sales figures we have seen. Worldwide if they do ship 10 million then their would be anything from 1.5-2.5 million xbox360's unsold.