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Xbox 360 Sales May Exceed Microsoft's 10M Forecast

duk

Banned
May 10, 2006
8,487
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0
Ask me a few months ago and I would have said in 2010 the market would look like this:

PS3 - 40 %
360 - 35%
Wii - 25%

Now in the directions Sony and Nintendo are headed?

PS3 - 30%
360 - 35%
Wii - 35%
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Jun 7, 2004
77,909
2
1,490
Oregon
duk said:
Ask me a few months ago and I would have said in 2010 the market would look like this:

PS3 - 40 %
360 - 35%
Wii - 25%

Now in the directions Sony and Nintendo are headed?

PS3 - 30%
360 - 35%
Wii - 35%
It's all very, very early, but I'm inclined to agree.
 
May 15, 2006
3,886
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GhaleonEB said:
It's all very, very early, but I'm inclined to agree.
the Wii number could be anywhere from 20% to 40% for me. Still too early to tell if it will lose its shine or carry on as a steamroller. The summer months sales will be the key, as it seems more of a party/christmas console.
 

duk

Banned
May 10, 2006
8,487
0
0
GhaleonEB said:
It's all very, very early, but I'm inclined to agree.
Oh yes, don't get me wrong, everything could change as anything can happen. :)
 

maynerd

Banned
Jun 8, 2004
10,955
1
0
Bellevue, WA
duk said:
Ask me a few months ago and I would have said in 2010 the market would look like this:

PS3 - 40 %
360 - 35%
Wii - 25%

Now in the directions Sony and Nintendo are headed?

PS3 - 20%
360 - 25%
Wii - 55%
Fixed... :)
 

Arsenal

Member
May 17, 2006
1,028
0
0
jarrod said:
About the only place I could a potnetial need for the core is in developing markets like Inida, China and Brazil. And then probably as the only SKU option... but in the USA? It's entirely unnecessary considering where the industry stands today.
You mean the industry where the low cost GBA, DSL, PS2 and Wii are cleaning house? IMO the past year has only served to solidify the fact that the core will be a very important part of the MS strategy to gain marketshare in North America. The best thing about core from MS perspective is that it can be fully upgraded to what the premium offers through accessories and it allows the customer to defer the costs of the full system over time while still allowing ample profits for MS. The core has had slow sales so far because of its pricepoint - once it goes under $200, it will become much more appealing as an entry level system with simple upgrades to add functionality at a later point in time.
 

Il Comodino

sorry about his english
Jun 20, 2005
682
0
1,355
duk said:
Ask me a few months ago and I would have said in 2010 the market would look like this:

PS3 - 40 %
360 - 35%
Wii - 25%

Now in the directions Sony and Nintendo are headed?

PS3 - 30%
360 - 35%
Wii - 35%
you can't use the 1th 3 week to look a market of 5/6 years :)
 

urk

butthole fishhooking yes
May 16, 2005
11,995
0
1,250
East of Sea-Town
www.bungie.net
Honest question: Do they tally replacement units in the number calculations? For instance, my friend bought a launch 360 and returned it after it kept freezing up. When Gears dropped he bought another one. Of course, he doesn't own two, but do they tally it up as two sales?
 

Arsenal

Member
May 17, 2006
1,028
0
0
mrklaw said:
also keep in mind that regardless of their longterm goals, if the shareholders don't start seeing some more positive results they will want action.

Just because they have shitloads of money doesn't mean they can just play with it with no responsibilities
I am pretty sure those shareholders would prefer to see MS gain marketshare in the console market with some minor losses than see them scrape out a few mil in profits while squandering their chance to make gains. Nothing the Xbox does at this point is going to have a significant short term impact on MS financially. 4 Billion in losses last gen may seem like a lot, but it hardly impacted the quarterly balance sheets and doesn't amount to a hill of beans compared to the core business that MS is trying to protect with their entry into this market.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Jun 7, 2004
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urk said:
Honest question: Do they tally replacement units in the number calculations? For instance, my friend bought a launch 360 and returned it after it kept freezing up. When Gears dropped he bought another one. Of course, he doesn't own two, but do they tally it up as two sales?
I don't know, but I don't think it will make much of an impact overall if they did.

Il Comodino said:
you can't use the 1th 3 week to look a market of 5/6 years :)
Agreed, but we're looking both at initial results, short-term forecasts and strategy, including price and demographic positioning. :)
 

Arsenal

Member
May 17, 2006
1,028
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0
urk said:
Honest question: Do they tally replacement units in the number calculations? For instance, my friend bought a launch 360 and returned it after it kept freezing up. When Gears dropped he bought another one. Of course, he doesn't own two, but do they tally it up as two sales?
Sure, they count those. How big do you think the PS2 installed base actually is?
 

Maximilian E.

AKA MS-Evangelist
Feb 17, 2006
2,383
0
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39
It is funny to see people still dragging up the "MS has lost 5 billion, shareholders wants their money back"-comments..

..funny because people seem to forget that MS "were willing" to spend 15+ billion to buy Nintendo.

So they came off far cheaper by doing it themselves than by buying Nintendo...
 

jarrod

Banned
Jun 6, 2004
25,732
1
0
Arsenal said:
You mean the industry where the low cost GBA, DSL, PS2 and Wii are cleaning house?
Yes, and they're all raking in a tidy profit while doing so... something the core currently doesn't manage and likely wouldn't at $199 for another year at the very least.


Arsenal said:
The core has had slow sales so far because of its pricepoint - once it goes under $200, it will become much more appealing as an entry level system with simple upgrades to add functionality at a later point in time.
See you in 2008 then...
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Jun 7, 2004
77,909
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Maximilian E. said:
But MS would still had to spend 15 billion.. it would take years to get the investment back..
And they'd still get a return faster than they will on RARE, at this pace.

:rimshot
 

Arsenal

Member
May 17, 2006
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jarrod said:
No pricedrop until end of 2007 then?
It will depend on the sales of the 360 and how well it is competing.

You seem fixated on the fact that MS might loose money on the hardware when that is pretty much a given. Take the price of a Core bundle in Japan for instance. While it is pretty stupid to leave money on th table with unnecessary price cuts, MS is going to do what it needs to do to remain competitive in the market.
 

jarrod

Banned
Jun 6, 2004
25,732
1
0
Arsenal said:
You seem fixated on the fact that MS might loose money on the hardware when that is pretty much a given. Take the price of a Core bundle in Japan for instance. While it is pretty stupid to leave money on th table with unnecessary price cuts, MS is going to do what it needs to do to remain competitive in the market.
You seem unwilling to acknowledge though that Microsoft can still be perfectly competitive with a SKU reshuffle, get the same percieved and competitive effect of a pricedrop, and have the added benefit of actually start making a return on hardware. Sony opened the window for them, you really expect them to go back to (heavy losses) plan A? Just stay the course?
 

Odysseus

Banned
Jun 22, 2004
12,890
0
0
Greensboro, NC
I'm fairly certain this generation will have come and gone and the Core will never have been relevant. I don't think it will appeal to people ever. Even my uncle who was shopping for a system to have at his house so his grandkids could play it when they came over, someone who hasn't owned a game system probably since Intellivision, even he was aware of how retarded the tard pack actually was and ended up buying a premium.
 

Sean*O

Member
Dec 6, 2005
2,135
9
1,120
You seem unwilling to acknowledge though that Microsoft can still be perfectly competitive with a SKU reshuffle, get the same percieved and competitive effect of a pricedrop, and have the added benefit of actually start making a return on hardware. Sony opened the window for them, you really expect them to go back to (heavy losses) plan A? Just stay the course?
I think MS might want to, just maybe, entertain the idea of hitting the gas now and completely burying Sony under the weight of the current climate.

It would also be wise for them to price the Core 360 evenly with the Wii where it would have an overwhelming advantage from a hardware power perspective, and also from a games library perspective at this point.

No one can absorb a loss like MS, and if they cement the #1 position this generation, they will make all of their losses back, and then some.
 

Nerevar

they call me "Man Gravy".
Jun 15, 2004
8,284
0
0
Sean*O said:
I think MS might want to, just maybe, entertain the idea of hitting the gas now and completely burying Sony under the weight of the current climate.

It would also be wise for them to price the Core 360 evenly with the Wii where it would have an overwhelming advantage from a hardware power perspective, and also from a games library perspective at this point.

No one can absorb a loss like MS, and if they cement the #1 position this generation, they will make all of their losses back, and then some.
I also think it's imperative to point out that MS is still floundering in 2 regions, 1 of which many analysts are saying is set to become the most important gaming market this generation (Europe). While they have a lot of leeway to do whatever they want in the US due to Sony's inability to do anything, they're in trouble in the EU if they rest on their laurels. I think it's necessary for them to drop the price there.
 
Jan 19, 2005
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Odysseus said:
I'm fairly certain this generation will have come and gone and the Core will never have been relevant. I don't think it will appeal to people ever. Even my uncle who was shopping for a system to have at his house so his grandkids could play it when they came over, someone who hasn't owned a game system probably since Intellivision, even he was aware of how retarded the tard pack actually was and ended up buying a premium.
Does he live in India? Because that's the kind of market it was made to serve.
 

Maximilian E.

AKA MS-Evangelist
Feb 17, 2006
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39
Odysseus said:
I'm fairly certain this generation will have come and gone and the Core will never have been relevant. I don't think it will appeal to people ever. Even my uncle who was shopping for a system to have at his house so his grandkids could play it when they came over, someone who hasn't owned a game system probably since Intellivision, even he was aware of how retarded the tard pack actually was and ended up buying a premium.
I have experienced the contrary..
A friend of mine is going to buy a core pack to her sisters son, and his mother is going to buy the hdd and some uncle some games etc..

But in the long run, the core pack will make "sense" even for hardcore gamers (at least, they will see that it makes sense).

When there are several hdds to choose from, more memory cards etc.. and when the core pack goes down in price.. then it will all make sense..
 

Regret Truth

Member
Jan 17, 2006
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Odysseus said:
I'm fairly certain this generation will have come and gone and the Core will never have been relevant. I don't think it will appeal to people ever. Even my uncle who was shopping for a system to have at his house so his grandkids could play it when they came over, someone who hasn't owned a game system probably since Intellivision, even he was aware of how retarded the tard pack actually was and ended up buying a premium.
Good story. No one with half a brain is buying core systems. The only people buying core units are arrogant moms or just plain stupid. Ive sold about 4 core systems in the last year and EVERY SINGLE person came back within a week to buy the hard drive. This is all after imforming them about premium benifits.

I agree with those saying a sku reshuffle would come before a price drop.

EDIT: Im completly aware why the core unit exsits. Its more appealing to a worldwide audience. But its kind of a joke here in the US.
 

Odysseus

Banned
Jun 22, 2004
12,890
0
0
Greensboro, NC
Maximilian E. said:
I have experienced the contrary..
A friend of mine is going to buy a core pack to her sisters son, and his mother is going to buy the hdd and some uncle some games etc..

But in the long run, the core pack will make "sense" even for hardcore gamers (at least, they will see that it makes sense).

When there are several hdds to choose from, more memory cards etc.. and when the core pack goes down in price.. then it will all make sense..
Yeah, the Core will make sense to replace all those broken down premiums out of warranty, provided the HDD still works. Otherwise, it's insignificant.
 

Klocker

Member
Apr 1, 2006
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jarrod said:
No pricedrop until end of 2007 then?
I'm thinking price drop near the end of 2007 with the impact (and original intention of the Core's existence) being realized in 2008.

Edit:
I see the 2008-2010 $199 Core system being the PS2 of this generation. With hundreds of games and many "Platinum" classics and Halo 3, GTA IV etc., they will fly off the shelves at that price, maybe with a memory card pack-in to make it not as much of a tard pack either.
 

Regret Truth

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Jan 17, 2006
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Maximilian E. said:
When there are several hdds to choose from, more memory cards etc.. and when the core pack goes down in price.. then it will all make sense..
Very good point. Never actually thought about it from that angle.
 

Klocker

Member
Apr 1, 2006
8,144
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Sean*O said:
I think MS might want to, just maybe, entertain the idea of hitting the gas now and completely burying Sony under the weight of the current climate.

It would also be wise for them to price the Core 360 evenly with the Wii where it would have an overwhelming advantage from a hardware power perspective, and also from a games library perspective at this point.

No one can absorb a loss like MS, and if they cement the #1 position this generation, they will make all of their losses back, and then some.

that sounds logical but the perception of value becomes too great if you separate yourself too far from your competition. They can't risk the mainstream perception that "you get what you pay for" and the PS3 being too high over their price runs that risk.
 

KeithFranklin

Banned
Jul 21, 2004
1,116
0
0
I have always thought the Core really wont sell much at all except for this time of year.

It is much more palatable as a gift and the gift giver doesnt care that the recipient needs a memory card to save a game. How many PS2's and GCN's were sold for Christmas presents without memory cards? When people are purchasing for themselves then the core isnt a wise choice, but as a gift it works.
 

jarrod

Banned
Jun 6, 2004
25,732
1
0
Klocker said:
I'm thinking price drop near the end of 2007 with the impact (and original intention of the Core's existence) being realized in 2008.
It's a possible scenraio, though it misses the spring window to bleed the competition post-launch. PS2 handled this perfectly, I wouldn't expect Microsoft to just pass up a golden opportunity to return the favor...
 

Odysseus

Banned
Jun 22, 2004
12,890
0
0
Greensboro, NC
KeithFranklin said:
I have always thought the Core really wont sell much at all except for this time of year.

It is much more palatable as a gift and the gift giver doesnt care that the recipient needs a memory card to save a game. How many PS2's and GCN's were sold for Christmas presents without memory cards? When people are purchasing for themselves then the core isnt a wise choice, but as a gift it works.

You might have a point. It's how GameCube got half it's base, after all. Parents and grandparents that didn't know better.
 

Arsenal

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May 17, 2006
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The 360 was built from the ground up to support an external, upgradable and optional HDD. A big reason why the core is not selling very well is because MS is charging an arm and a leg for mem cards and HDD accessories, not to mention the existing options there are extremely limited. Its hard to say what MS has planned, but it just doesn't make sense to me that they would *not* offer a 360 without a HDD based on its design. If they were to start licensing HDDs to 3rd parties or something like that - the core could start looking like a much better deal from an upgrade perspective. Hopefully the PS3 and its more open accessory architecture will kind of force this on MS. I have long thought that the 360s best bet to compete against Bluray is simply to offer gigantic HDDs that will make downloads easier to manage.

Edit: I also have to say that I am very surprised that there is not a bigger black market for non-MS 360 HDDs, I would think that kind of hack would be pretty easy (but I don't really know much about that kind of thing).
 

Dr_Cogent

Banned
Dec 17, 2004
14,095
0
0
USA
Core was perfect for me when I refused to be without a system while my other one was out for repair.

Slapped on my old hard drive onto it and whammo. Back in biz.
 

hyp

Member
Jul 15, 2004
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maybe there are some people out there that really don't care about online, wireless controllers, and a hard drive... i don't see how the core system would be irrelevant for these folks. if all they need is a memory card for save games, then by all means, the core is still cheaper than owning a premium for a budget gamer.
 

Klocker

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Apr 1, 2006
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jarrod said:
It's a possible scenraio, though it misses the spring window to bleed the competition post-launch. PS2 handled this perfectly, I wouldn't expect Microsoft to just pass up a golden opportunity to return the favor...
true... a $50 drop may not be out of the question but I really think the route they'll take for 2007 is pack-ins and bundles. (as they already are).

It makes more sense IMO, creates value rather than diminishes it, expands software saturation and one of the Core pack-ins could be a memory unit of some sort.
 

Odysseus

Banned
Jun 22, 2004
12,890
0
0
Greensboro, NC
Dr_Cogent said:
Core was perfect for me when I refused to be without a system while my other one was out for repair.

Slapped on my old hard drive onto it and whammo. Back in biz.
How much did you get for it when you traded it in once your other system came back?
 

Dr_Cogent

Banned
Dec 17, 2004
14,095
0
0
USA
Odysseus said:
How much did you get for it when you traded it in once your other system came back?
I didn't trade it in. My premium (without the HD) is now attached to my SDTV in the family room. It doubles as a DVD player and my wife and kid sometimes play Viva. I just use my memory card for them.

My core is now where the premium was before with the original HD attached. I have a 1 year warranty on this new core. I never had any intention on taking it back. I just figured I would own 2 Xbox 360s. My wife was even the one who suggested it. I didn't even think of buying another system. I figured I would just have to suffer it out.
 

Mr Furious

Member
Nov 30, 2005
296
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Odysseus said:
How much did you get for it when you traded it in once your other system came back?
I did the same thing. Now I want to get another HD, wireless bridge, and HDTV for upstairs. Dreaming for now.
 

duk

Banned
May 10, 2006
8,487
0
0
MS already shipped 10m?

Additionally, Microsoft was helped out by weaker than expected sales of both the Wii and PS3 during the same period, indicating that shoppers looking for a next-gen console may have been opting for Microsoft's entrant over others due to availability.

While the most recent data shows six million Xbox 360 consoles sold as of September 30, internal data indicates Microsoft may have sold more than eight million units as of the end of November.

Reaching the 10 million goal is just now a matter of sales: about a week ago the company shipped its ten millionth console. And from the looks of things, hitting the mark may not be that difficult.
http://www.betanews.com/article/Has_...War/1165514003
 

soul creator

Member
Mar 31, 2006
17,055
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Arsenal said:
The 360 was built from the ground up to support an external, upgradable and optional HDD. A big reason why the core is not selling very well is because MS is charging an arm and a leg for mem cards and HDD accessories, not to mention the existing options there are extremely limited. Its hard to say what MS has planned, but it just doesn't make sense to me that they would *not* offer a 360 without a HDD based on its design. If they were to start licensing HDDs to 3rd parties or something like that - the core could start looking like a much better deal from an upgrade perspective. Hopefully the PS3 and its more open accessory architecture will kind of force this on MS. I have long thought that the 360s best bet to compete against Bluray is simply to offer gigantic HDDs that will make downloads easier to manage.

Edit: I also have to say that I am very surprised that there is not a bigger black market for non-MS 360 HDDs, I would think that kind of hack would be pretty easy (but I don't really know much about that kind of thing).
and that XNA Racer video was a big tease

"See, this can all run on a basic retail Xbox!"

*video clip shows 60MB of free space on 360 memory manager screen)

strangely enough, I've held the somewhat controversial opinion that MS may actually get rid of the premium system somewhere down the line, and just have ample stock of hard drives and memory cards available, with bonuses for buying them (preloaded content, for example). It depends on if they want to risk the whole potential "wow, the system doesn't have as much features packed in like the PS3 does!" viewpoint. But then again, if they're at $149-$199, and still $200 cheaper than a PS3, maybe they won't care. This also depends on the whole profitability thing.

The original Xbox having a hard drive contributed to lost profits (couldn't be cost reduced), and consumer perception of a hard drive's benefits was somewhat limited. With the 360, they obviously want to push the whole marketplace and downloadable content thing, but at the same time, they may want to leave themselves an "out" if the mass market doesn't consider downloadable content an absolutely necessary thing for a game system. If hard drives are separate, but ample enough so people obviously know that they exist, maybe they can balance this. Or maybe not, lol.
 

soul creator

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Dr_Cogent said:
I didn't trade it in. My premium (without the HD) is now attached to my SDTV in the family room. It doubles as a DVD player and my wife and kid sometimes play Viva. I just use my memory card for them.

My core is now where the premium was before with the original HD attached. I have a 1 year warranty on this new core. I never had any intention on taking it back. I just figured I would own 2 Xbox 360s. My wife was even the one who suggested it. I didn't even think of buying another system. I figured I would just have to suffer it out.
that's actually another thing I could see with the Core system waay in the future (like 2009). A cheap media center extender/dvd player/gaming system. Don't need a hard drive if you're simply streaming everything from your PC in the other room.
 

JB1981

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May 12, 2006
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100,000 consoles per day?

It'd be cool if true. I guess we'll get a better idea by tonight, no?

I still say absolutely no more than 550k for the 360 for this month's NPD.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Jun 7, 2004
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JB1981 said:
100,000 consoles per day?

It'd be cool if true. I guess we'll get a better idea by tonight, no?
Data is released in just over an hour; probably less than two hours until it hits GAF.