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Xbox Expected to Gain Console Software Market Share over PlayStation & Nintendo By 2026



Gaming market analyst firm DFC Intelligence released an updated forecast on the video game console market that shows Microsoft's Xbox platform gaining ground over the next four years on Sony's PlayStation and the Nintendo ecosystem.

As you can see from the slide below, DFC Intelligence estimated Sony leading the console software market share with 43% of the total revenue (a combination of packaged and online sales), while Nintendo followed close by with 37% and Microsoft's Xbox lagged far behind at 20%.



However, the new forecast for 2026 shows Microsoft's Xbox gaining 7% market share, while Sony's PlayStation would lose 4% and Nintendo 3% compared to 2021.



This forecast is partly due to the next generation Nintendo console, which DFC Intelligence believes to be planned for release by 2024. The console software market share will be more evenly split between the three companies as a result of that.

When it comes to the total video game console market including hardware, DFC Intelligence has halved its previous estimates due to the continued shortage supply issues. The updated forecast shows 4% growth year-over-year, with 2022 console revenue coming in roughly at $49 billion. The breakdown actually shows slightly declining hardware revenue and equal packaged software revenue, though online revenue is expected to grow at nearly $21 billion.



The analyst firm highlights that Sony's PlayStation 5 is the biggest loser in this situation, as the console remains in extremely high demand but its supply will continue to be very limited through the fiscal year ending in March 2023. Sony admitted this last month when it revised its own full-year forecast downward to 11.5 million units.

DFC Intelligence surveys show PS5 to be still the preferred console, but that might change as Microsoft's Xbox library grows thanks to the many acquired game studios.

Meanwhile, the analysts reckon the PC platform is gaining steam amidst the console shortages, with a large portion of Elden Ring sales coming from PC gamers.

 
Wait. They are predicting Xbox will have 27% market share, Nintendo will have 34% and Sony will have 39%?

It sounded (to me) like you were saying they predicted Xbox to be in first in 4 years, but they're just saying they'll still be last, but not quite as far behind? I dont think that anyone would predict that they wouldn't gain some ground, Xbox One was a low point and they've been spending a ton of studio acquisitions.

I'd think only having 27% by 2026 would be a disappointment to Microsoft.
 
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Calverz

Gold Member
Wait. They are predicting Xbox will have 27% market share, Nintendo will have 34% and Sony will have 39%?

It sounded (to me) like you were saying they predicted Xbox to be in first in 4 years, but they're just saying they'll still be last, but not quite as far behind? I dont think that anyone would predict that they wouldn't gain some ground, Xbox One was a low point and they've been spending a ton of studio acquisitions.

I'd think only having 27% by 2026 would be a disappointment to Microsoft.
I think this is the reality that Xbox is in. The damage done with the Xbox one reveal was immeasurable. I don’t think Microsoft will be entirely dissatisfied if this came true. They are playing the long game here quite frankly.
 

Dr Bass

Member
They certainly have the edge in subscription services and supply chain. Seems reasonable. Sony really cannot compete at a platform level.
How do you figure any of what you just said? If Sony is the one that can’t compete why is the forecast for MS to still be a distant third? What planet do we live on where the one “losing” is the one the other companies “can’t compete” with? Are we in the bizarro universe? Does Phil Spencer have a goatee I am missing?
 

yurinka

Member
DFC Intelligence analyst before predicting MS will increase its software market share in 5 years to a 27%:


I think it's going to be the opposite, Sony would increase their market share as they predict (Sony predicts to increase their overall console market share, not only software, to a 55% this gen). And if doesn't happen would be due to major chips shortages until 2024 or beyond. The demand for PS5 is insane, once huge quantities of stock become available their hardware sales will skyrocket, and software will increase after that. Meanwhile at Xbox, I think Gamepass will continue shrinking game sales now not only of MS games but also of Activision Blizzard and Zenimax and so on.

Regarding Switch 2/Switch Pro/Super Nintedo Switch or whatever you prefer to call it, I agree that will be released in 2024. I also expect chips shortages until maybe H2 2023. Regarding the total console 2022 numbers, there are many big seller games that are going to be released this year so I think will be bigger than the posted ones, and I think that the YoY decrease in hardware is going to be bigger due to chips shortage combined with Switch starting to sunset after they passed their yearly sales peak while ago.

If Sony is the one that can’t compete why is the forecast for MS to still be a distant third? What planet do we live on where the one “losing” is the one the other companies “can’t compete” with?
I think this year MS will get a jump in software sales and total revenue because of the addition of Activision Blizzard getting closer to Sony, but I think that until 2026 Sony will increase their market share advantage compared to MS not only in hardware and software, but also in subscriptions.

I also expect Sony to continue increasing their profit every year until 2026 due to their own GaaS, increased amount of old PC ports, game subscriptitons revenue growth (both ARPU and amount of subs), bigger push on mobile, moneys from the PlayStation Productions movies & tv shows and increased efforts in 1st party, 2nd party and 3rd party exclusives that they have been investing since a couple of years ago, so I assume we'll see the results before 2026.

I think we'll see the amount of GP subs with slow growth or stuck again as we saw during many months until they released Halo & Forza, but this time until they include a huge chunk of Activision Blizzard stuff once they close the acquisition in H1 2023 aprox.
 
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kingfey

Banned
How do you figure any of what you just said? If Sony is the one that can’t compete why is the forecast for MS to still be a distant third? What planet do we live on where the one “losing” is the one the other companies “can’t compete” with? Are we in the bizarro universe? Does Phil Spencer have a goatee I am missing?
For the supply, MS has an edge due to series S. Same with subscription with gamepass.

But global wise, MS cant penetrate it yet. Sony still have huge market share in EU. Then you have Japan, which MS only sold 140k xseries.

They need to build their global brand to gain the bigger market share.
 
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Dr Bass

Member
It did ? really ?

To the best of my recollection, FFVII was the swing point.



Someones gotta point out the obvious fallacies :)
Sony came bursting out of the gate with the PSX. It absolutely changed the market “overnight.”

But for some reason people are still making excuses for Phil Spencer and how MS handles their ecosystem. It’s been nearly ten years for the guy now. And he’s still just talking, talking, talking. Xbox only fans should be a little more angry. I honestly don’t get it. This report is again, much ado about nothing. Pure conjecture and an estimate that leaves things at, essentially, the status quo. I don’t see why this is even “news.”
 

kingfey

Banned
No shit they will start gaining ground once bethesda, activision and their own studios start rolling out the exclusives.
They still won't. MS needs global brand recognition. They destroyed the x360 momentum. They need to start from the ground now.

They will be serious challenge next gen. But right now, they really need that brand recognition for global market.
 

Kerotan

Member
They'll gain marketshare by default. The switch is wildly more popular then Xbox consoles and so is the ps5.
 
“Gamepass isn’t sustainable!”

“Gamepass is the future!”

“Spartacus will chance gaming!”

“2026!”

Most of these “analysts” are young to mid twenties kids in short pants sweating over spreadsheets. They slowly alter them by an unknown X factor perceived through copious amounts of Distructoid, IGN, Gamespot, Polygon or personal favorite “insider” influencers for too many hours.

Writing predictions like Nostradamus while slowly balding from plucking purple hairs out of a dumbass hairdo, wondering if they truly are a “they” and questioning my gender.

I can walk outside, lick my finger tell you the way of the wind too, bitch.
 
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adamsapple

Gold Member
Sony came bursting out of the gate with the PSX. It absolutely changed the market “overnight.”

But for some reason people are still making excuses for Phil Spencer and how MS handles their ecosystem. It’s been nearly ten years for the guy now. And he’s still just talking, talking, talking. Xbox only fans should be a little more angry. I honestly don’t get it. This report is again, much ado about nothing. Pure conjecture and an estimate that leaves things at, essentially, the status quo. I don’t see why this is even “news.”

I think you're being a leeeeeeeeetle bit hyperbolic here but ok :p
 
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