Gaming market analyst firm DFC Intelligence released an updated forecast on the video game console market that shows Microsoft's Xbox platform gaining ground over the next four years on Sony's PlayStation and the Nintendo ecosystem.
As you can see from the slide below, DFC Intelligence estimated Sony leading the console software market share with 43% of the total revenue (a combination of packaged and online sales), while Nintendo followed close by with 37% and Microsoft's Xbox lagged far behind at 20%.
However, the new forecast for 2026 shows Microsoft's Xbox gaining 7% market share, while Sony's PlayStation would lose 4% and Nintendo 3% compared to 2021.
This forecast is partly due to the next generation Nintendo console, which DFC Intelligence believes to be planned for release by 2024. The console software market share will be more evenly split between the three companies as a result of that.
When it comes to the total video game console market including hardware, DFC Intelligence has halved its previous estimates due to the continued shortage supply issues. The updated forecast shows 4% growth year-over-year, with 2022 console revenue coming in roughly at $49 billion. The breakdown actually shows slightly declining hardware revenue and equal packaged software revenue, though online revenue is expected to grow at nearly $21 billion.
The analyst firm highlights that Sony's PlayStation 5 is the biggest loser in this situation, as the console remains in extremely high demand but its supply will continue to be very limited through the fiscal year ending in March 2023. Sony admitted this last month when it revised its own full-year forecast downward to 11.5 million units.
DFC Intelligence surveys show PS5 to be still the preferred console, but that might change as Microsoft's Xbox library grows thanks to the many acquired game studios.
Meanwhile, the analysts reckon the PC platform is gaining steam amidst the console shortages, with a large portion of Elden Ring sales coming from PC gamers.
The new forecast released by DFC Intelligence shows Microsoft's Xbox gaining ground in the console software market share over its competitors