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Xbox Game Pass subscriptions miss Microsoft’s target

kyoji

Member
Yep. Same thing happened with my company. My company (and my industry in general) had a blowout year in 2020 and our projections for 2021 were based on 2020, which was not indicative of a normal market. Now we have revised our goals downward twice over the course of the year and it will still be a stretch to hit those goals by YE.

What's also funny is that I recall reading posts online when Nintendo failed to hit their sales goals for the Switch in 2018 (?). People were crying doom and gloom even though they still sold a large number of consoles. And then you look at what happened since and they have been doing gangbusters. But people love to overreact, don't they?
But there arent alot of people crying doom and gloom in this thread…. And so what if people were?

what most interesting about this thread is that we finally have an idea on somewhat accurate numbers and not FUD people have been running with for weeks at a time. It has nothing to do with dooming the service, more of getting a better grip on gaf PERCEPTION vs. REALITY.
 

Topher

Gold Member
He cares, read this.

I would advise reading this thread (above) before engaging with people here. The disingenuous behavior on display here is staggering.

That is priceless.

Reading through this and it's staggering how many people don't understand how percentages work and how they are used.

Season 4 Wow GIF by The Office

I agree 1000%
 
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The percentage is related to the target split for the payout, not to the revenue. GamePass subs isn’t 7% of MS revenue lmao.

The split between targets would also be determined before the period, not afte
Should also clarify, that yes, the chart provided doesn't show completely comparable rates. Some are based on growth rate% and some are based on total revenue. I didn't specify that in my first post. What I was looking at was the Weight column primarily. Yes, the bonus is being paid out based on different targets from different divisions. Should have said that before, but again, I assumed people would see the differences in how they listed the figures.
 
The entire reason why Satya is all-in on Gamepass is because Gamepass can leverage Microsofts cloud structure to grow to numbers where even the skeptical Take 2 CEO is impressed. Microsoft is in a unique market position here (compared to Sony, Nintendo, Google and Amazon) and will drive this unique advantage home, no matter what. Something like Gamepass wouldn't work for any other company.
You're probably right about that in terms of Sony and Nintendo, but Google and Amazon are just as sizable as Microsoft. They have just as much money to throw around. I don't see how that changes what I've been saying though.
 

yazenov

Member
You Xbox guys need to chill with those accusations on why people want Gamepass numbers.

MS are the ones who were consistent with disclosing those numbers to us so we got a habit of constantly being updated with those numbers. They were giving us the impression that this was the most important metric to them, not hardware or software sales. Consistency is key. We didn't ask for this information but instead, wanted actual hardware, software, and profits made, like the rest of their competition 🤷‍♂️. But they shoved Gamepass numbers to our throats instead.

So all of a sudden, when they stopped being consistent and they stopped updating the press on these Gamepass numbers, something tells me they are ashamed of these numbers now.
 
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You're probably right about that in terms of Sony and Nintendo, but Google and Amazon are just as sizable as Microsoft. They have just as much money to throw around. I don't see how that changes what I've been saying though.
Google and Amazon can't into gaming tho. They have no clue how the business works and entering the gaming industry as a platform holder is extremely expensive. Just look at how much Epic is struggling despite (technically) knowing what they're doing.
 
Again, as a MSFT holder you should understand what role Gamepass plays for Microsoft and why they're all in on it. Those other flowers you're talking about are the core component used to grow Gamepass into a Netflix-tier subscription service over the next years. Gamepass isn't isolated here.
Nothing in Microsoft is completely isolated, that's been their core philosophy for literally decades. Full integration everywhere is not a Phil Spencer idea, it's been the company plan in every aspect of their business since inception.
But look at the facts here, and realize how little Game Pass matters to the big scheme of things. The MS stock price didn't go down one bit after this news came out. It's such a small concern to the regular investor that it barely matters. Where it does matter in relation to investors though, is when MS makes their budget and sets projections for 2022. It's all so obviously related, yet you seem to be having a conversation all on your own. It's almost like you're just dying for a console war thread, but you're not getting one here. We're all just talking raw numbers, but you're acting like I'm anti-Xbox for some reason.
 

PaNaMa

Banned
If I didn't have a console, I wouldn't be paying for GamePass. If I'm a consumer, I wouldn't just subscribe to game pass out of the blue because cloud.
If I could walk into Bestbuy and purchase a series X? Yeah once I got home and set up I'd be very likely to sub to game pass.
Make the consoles, put them in stores, subscriptions will come. Until then, you can't expect huge growth. MS knows this I'm sure.
 

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
He cares, read this.

I would advise reading this thread (above) before engaging with people here. The disingenuous behavior on display here is staggering.
SafeFocusedAustralianfurseal-max-1mb.gif
 

GhostOfTsu

Banned
38% percent growth is now considered failing?

37% growth shot as bad news. happen only on neogaf

Imagine a business seeing 37% YOY growth, the year after the COVID boom and it being painted as a negative.

Some of you guys are crazy.
Tell that to Phil and co. This is an internal document from Microsoft that they did before the launch of 2 consoles, xCloud and Bethesda. They thought it would be higher.

Besides, tons of fans and journalists were celebrating 23 millions back in March when the real number was actually 20 millions at the end of June 2021. That number was so widespread MS stopped revealing the numbers (according to Grubb). You don't think that's newsworthy?

We should be able to discuss that like we discussed the 30 millions last month. Sorry you don't like the news.
Your tone is quite different in comparison to the thread about 30M subs.
Big Brother Reaction GIF by MOODMAN

You might want to reassess your theory on who took an L.
Derktron is the worst poster here. His whole post history is shitting on fanboys while he's the biggest of them all. All his posts are cringe.
 
+47% is a is quite a stretched target! Wonder how much of an impact the various delays had on sub growth. Also would be interesting to see the retention rates.

As a consumer, I wholeheartedly want gamepass to succeed, so I hope MS will continue to double down on the strategy despite the small target miss.
 
Nothing in Microsoft is completely isolated, that's been their core philosophy for literally decades. Full integration everywhere is not a Phil Spencer idea, it's been the company plan in every aspect of their business since inception.
Full integration wasn't there before Gamepass, though. That's why Xbox was in a weird spot for a couple years.
But look at the facts here, and realize how little Game Pass matters to the big scheme of things. The MS stock price didn't go down one bit after this news came out. It's such a small concern to the regular investor that it barely matters. Where it does matter in relation to investors though, is when MS makes their budget and sets projections for 2022.
So it matters and doesn't matter at the same time? Not sure what you mean.
It's all so obviously related, yet you seem to be having a conversation all on your own. It's almost like you're just dying for a console war thread, but you're not getting one here. We're all just talking raw numbers, but you're acting like I'm anti-Xbox for some reason.
We're not talking raw numbers. We're talking company strategy.
 

Iced Arcade

Member
Whats this nonsense? Every industry releases numbers. That's just how things work. I have been following the movie box office for almost 25 years now. Every weekend you get numbers. Hell, you used to get daily numbers. NPD numbers for the gaming industry have been a staple until recently. Even now Nintendo and Sony release sales numbers every quarter. That's just part of following an industry. You dont have to be an investor lmao. What are you new to forums?

MS had no problems releasing numbers when their numbers were going up from 10 to 15 then to 18 million. Now all of a sudden they are being shy. No. You have to take the good with the bad. Hollywood doesnt hide an underperforming movie. Netflix doesnt hide a bad quarter.



Each of those news stories created a thread here. We all participated and i highly doubt we all had MS stock.

I mean whats next? We are no longer going to discuss AMD and Nvidia sales figures because we are not investors? I was actually very close to buying up AMD and Nvidia stock a few years ago but chose to go with other tech stocks. So would I be allowed to comment on the matter if I owned their stock? Nonsense.
calm down, your snake is getting a little slimy.


shareholders care about $ amount numbers being reported, not how many toy boxes they sold vs the other guy
 
Google and Amazon can't into gaming tho. They have no clue how the business works and entering the gaming industry as a platform holder is extremely expensive. Just look at how much Epic is struggling despite (technically) knowing what they're doing.
That hasn't stopped them from trying, has it?
 

Del_X

Member
I think they'll see solid growth once they reach one heavy-hitter AAA title per quarter. I don't think that starts until Q4 2022 with the release of Starfield and their acquisitions have generally had one full dev cycle under their belts.
 

Leyasu

Banned
Tell that to Phil and co. This is an internal document from Microsoft that they did before the launch of 2 consoles, xCloud and Bethesda. They thought it would be higher.

Besides, tons of fans and journalists were celebrating 23 millions back in March when the real number was actually 20 millions at the end of June 2021. That number was so widespread MS stopped revealing the numbers (according to Grubb). You don't think that's newsworthy?

We should be able to discuss that like we discussed the 30 millions last month. Sorry you don't like the news.

Derktron is the worst poster here. His whole post history is shitting on fanboys while he's the biggest of them all. All his posts are cringe.
Yeah I am fucking distraught that Phil might not have a bonus as fat as he thought.

They probably projected higher expecting more consoles to come off of the production lines and well before a global semi conductor shortage. I bet that they are less worried than the people on here are.
 
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kyoji

Member
Google and Amazon can't into gaming tho. They have no clue how the business works and entering the gaming industry as a platform holder is extremely expensive. Just look at how much Epic is struggling despite (technically) knowing what they're doing.
so much i could dissect in this statement, whew.
 
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IntentionalPun

Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
Why are people acting like MS ever really that consistently trumpeted GamePass numbers?

Am I missing something? Hasn't it existed for years, and they've mentioned a number... all of what, 2-3 times?

The most recent of which was this January.

They could release a new number tomorrow for all we know.. and it would be a shorter gap than we usually hear such things. Aren't they doing their quarterly PR/report in the next couple of days?
 
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They probably projected higher expecting more consoles to come off of the production lines and well before a global semi conductor shortage. I bet that they are less worried than the people on here are.
If I read the paper correctly, they made projections for 2020 and 2021 in 2019. They overperformed 2020 and underperformed 2021. When you add the numbers up though, they pretty much exactly reached the two-year projection. I bet Satya and Phil are extremely concerned 🤭
 

phil_t98

#SonyToo
You Xbox guys need to chill with those accusations on why people want Gamepass numbers.

MS are the ones who were consistent with disclosing those numbers to us so we got a habit of constantly being updated with those numbers. They were giving us the impression that this was the most important metric to them, not hardware or software sales. Consistency is key. We didn't ask for this information but instead, wanted actual hardware, software, and profits made, like the rest of their competition 🤷‍♂️. But they shoved Gamepass numbers to our throats instead.

So all of a sudden, when they stopped being consistent and they stopped updating the press on these Gamepass numbers, something tells me they are ashamed of these numbers now.

they have never been consistent with the numbers though. They said a few times how many but never on a consistent basis
 
Something else that is being mostly overlooked is that not only did Game Pass not meet projections, but it's overall growth rate has slowed considerably. That's a natural occurrence over time, just due to the way that % work, but that is a rather steep drop off from the year before. Yes, MS accounted for the loss in their projections, but it indicates clearly that the service is not growing at the rate they want.
You Xbox guys need to chill with those accusations on why people want Gamepass numbers.

MS are the ones who were consistent with disclosing those numbers to us so we got a habit of constantly being updated with those numbers. They were giving us the impression that this was the most important metric to them, not hardware or software sales. Consistency is key. We didn't ask for this information but instead, wanted actual hardware, software, and profits made, like the rest of their competition 🤷‍♂️. But they shoved Gamepass numbers to our throats instead.

So all of a sudden, when they stopped being consistent and they stopped updating the press on these Gamepass numbers, something tells me they are ashamed of these numbers now.
If they shared raw sub numbers, it would seem even less impressive to the average person, who doesn't grasp percentage metrics. When your growth rate slows so much in just one year, you're probably going to see the total "new sub" count drop as well. Now, this won't always be true, it would depend on the number you're starting at. It's possible to have a lower growths rate YOY and still have a higher number of new subs. It seems unlikely with that split though.
 
If I read the paper correctly, they made projections for 2020 and 2021 in 2019. They overperformed 2020 and underperformed 2021. When you add the numbers up though, they pretty much exactly reached the two-year projection. I bet Satya and Phil are extremely concerned 🤭
You can't just "add up" those percentages though. You would need to know the actual number of subs first, then figure out what the growth rate added each year. The most recent year figure is a more important number, because it represents a bigger total subscription base.
 
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IntentionalPun

Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
If I read the paper correctly, they made projections for 2020 and 2021 in 2019. They overperformed 2020 and underperformed 2021. When you add the numbers up though, they pretty much exactly reached the two-year projection. I bet Satya and Phil are extremely concerned 🤭
I think so too; they projected some numbers in 2019. They didn't adjust projection because they all got over-bonused FY2020 anyways.
 

TheStam

Member
I cancelled my subscription the other day. Partly because as a PC gamer I have a lot of games already and I'm trying to take a more patient gamer approach not always looking at the new shiny thing coming, but appreciating what's already there that I have overlooked. I feel like Game Pass has been a bit of a stress for me, wanting to try many different games on Game Pass building on an already big backlog of quality games, also wondering if they will suddenly disappear. The other reason is because I'm stoked for the Steam Deck which I don't want to install Windows on. Even if I love Forza, figured I might as well just buy it on Steam and then I have it forever, not needing to lose that game once I quit a subscription. It would probably have been the only game I spent a lot of time on anyways. I'll try to live without GamePass, but you never know, might sub after a while again.
 

reksveks

Member
You can't just "add up" those percentages though. You would need to know the actual number of subs first, then figure out what the growth rate added each year. The most recent year figure is a more important number, because it represents a bigger total subscription base. If their growth was 37% in 2020, and 87% percent in 2021, you'd have very different numbers to look at. The % don't stack in a linear fashion

Target growth : y1 30% y2 30%
Actual growth: y1 40% y2 20%

If you have 1m in year 0, then doing the calculation using the target numbers, you got 1.69 and using the actual growth numbers you get 1.68.

Thats the maths that I did. I did mention that there is an assumption that y2 target hasn't been changed after y1 results. Year 0 means nothing.
 
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Gamepass is legit renting games without the late fees
Something i did for decades growing up. Nice to have it back without having to go to the store and seeing all the copies of the new game is already rented out.
 
You can't just "add up" those percentages though. You would need to know the actual number of subs first, then figure out what the growth rate added each year. The most recent year figure is a more important number, because it represents a bigger total subscription base. If their growth was 37% in 2020, and 87% percent in 2021, you'd have very different numbers to look at. The % don't stack in a linear fashion
The actual number of subs is irrelevant. You take any number X and apply the actual growth numbers and the projected growth numbers. Result is similar.
 
These are NOT projections. The metrics for determining performance awards for executives. Not remotely the same thing.
That same chart also shows projections though. You're the one who posted it. Look at the split columns. They say the projected/actual numbers right there.
 

chonga

Member
You can't just "add up" those percentages though. You would need to know the actual number of subs first, then figure out what the growth rate added each year. The most recent year figure is a more important number, because it represents a bigger total subscription base. If their growth was 37% in 2020, and 87% percent in 2021, you'd have very different numbers to look at. The % don't stack in a linear fashion
It doesn't matter what the raw figure is because when using percentages it becomes relative.

If the starting figure was 1m then they're target over the 2 years would see 2,527,209 subscribers, and the actual is 2,553,691 - or 1.04% above target.

If the starting figure was 15m then the 2 year target would be 37,908,135 and actual 38,305,365 - or guess what? 1.04% above target.

But you're right on the second part. The important bit is not where you've been, but where you're headed, so if growth is slowing down then yeah it might be wonderful that the year before you did very well, but you need to be wary about what you do next.
 
Target growth : y1 30% y2 30%
Actual growth: y1 40% y2 20%

If you have 1m in year 0, then doing the calculation using the target numbers, you got 1.69 and using the actual growth numbers you get 1.68.

Thats the maths that I did. I did mention that there is an assumption that y2 target hasn't been changed after y1 results. Year 0 means nothing.
Yes, after just one year, the difference will not show up as dramatically as it would over a longer timeline. When you're dealing with just 2 years, the % and the actual numbers can be close, but they're not the exact same, and the manner to calculate the numbers is not simply to look at the % and add them together. Yes, the figures can be close, but they're NOT the same.
 

Topher

Gold Member
That same chart also shows projections though. You're the one who posted it. Look at the split columns. They say the projected/actual numbers right there.

No, it does not. It says "FY21 Target/Actual Achievement". The "target" is what is required for 100% payout. That is not a projection of anything.

fUo4aM2.png
 
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It doesn't matter what the raw figure is because when using percentages it becomes relative.

If the starting figure was 1m then they're target over the 2 years would see 2,527,209 subscribers, and the actual is 2,553,691 - or 1.04% above target.

If the starting figure was 15m then the 2 year target would be 37,908,135 and actual 38,305,365 - or guess what? 1.04% above target.

But you're right on the second part. The important bit is not where you've been, but where you're headed, so if growth is slowing down then yeah it might be wonderful that the year before you did very well, but you need to be wary about what you do next.
Yes, I just said this in my last post. The figures may be close, because you are only looking at 2 years %. However, there IS a difference when you actually do the math. You just demonstrated the difference yourself. Just because the difference is negligible after one year is irrelevant to my point. You showed a real number difference when you figure the % correctly. Over time, that difference will show a more dramatic curve. In this case, if you invert the years for the 87% growth and the 38% growth, starting with a general number of 1,000,000, then yes, the figure will be very close, but not the same. Over time, you would see this reflected in the %.
 

onesvenus

Member
I don't think you're thinking this one through. They bought Bethesda, for quite a sum of cash, banking on the acquisition to bolster subs. It might have worked, but not to the degree they expected, obviously, look at the numbers. So you think that MS solution is going to be to EXPAND the budget more than they already did last year?
It is really clear that there's a lot of people who just want to think of this in terms of video games, and ignore how business operates in the real world. Hey, I get it,I like games too. That's why I'm here. But I can also separate gaming from the reality of the financial world. If a division of a company underperformed, and other divisions overperform, the money doesn't get funneled into the underperforming division. There's a saying in business "Don't water your weeds, and cut the head off your flowers". Game Pass isn't exactly a weed, but MS has bigger flowers to grow.
But it isn't true that the Xbox division unperformed. They haven't reached their bonus projections, nothing else.

And yeah, obviously taking a loss-leader approach means you have to invest to make the business work. If Bethesda is the only investment they were going to do is something neither you nor I know so we can't really say if they are in that moment to evaluate if it has been worth or not.
 
No, it does not. It says "FY21 Target/Actual Achievement". The "target" is what is required for 100% payout. That is not a projection of anything.

fUo4aM2.png
I have to ask, what do you think a projection is, other than "a target"? Because that's what they are. The top chart even shows how much he lost due to it not making the target. He lost over 17%
 
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But it isn't true that the Xbox division unperformed. They haven't reached their bonus projections, nothing else.

And yeah, obviously taking a loss-leader approach means you have to invest to make the business work. If Bethesda is the only investment they were going to do is something neither you nor I know so we can't really say if they are in that moment to evaluate if it has been worth or not.
I didn't say Xbox overall underperformed. But according to their projections, Game Pass did not meet their desired growth target YOY.
 

reksveks

Member
That same chart also shows projections though. You're the one who posted it. Look at the split columns. They say the projected/actual numbers right there.
Think the argument that they are making is the targets for the exec bonuses are going to be different to internal targets, I could be wrong with their arguments so others, please do correct me.

Yes, after just one year, the difference will not show up as dramatically as it would over a longer timeline. When you're dealing with just 2 years, the % and the actual numbers can be close, but they're not the exact same, and the manner to calculate the numbers is not simply to look at the % and add them together. Yes, the figures can be close, but they're NOT the same.

I think we might be using different definitions of 'add', my calculations is a multiplication and has nothing to do with addition.

If the starting figure was 1m then they're target over the 2 years would see 2,527,209 subscribers, and the actual is 2,553,691 - or 1.04% above target.

If the starting figure was 15m then the 2 year target would be 37,908,135 and actual 38,305,365 - or guess what? 1.04% above target.

I think chonga is better highlight my point.

In this case, if you invert the years for the 87% growth and the 38% growth, starting with a general number of 1,000,000,
I am getting slightly confused: y1 of 38% growth and y2 of 87% growth is exactly the same as y1 of 87% growth and y2 of 38% growth, right? That's true, no matter the y0 number.

If we repeat the calculations for y3/4 with the same growth numbers, it's exactly the same. If MS keeps failing to hit targets, that becomes an issue.
 
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Plantoid

Member
I was waiting to comment here so I can really add to the discussion

The projections are from 2019 docs, before covid, before halo delay, before chip shortages

They missed the target but they did grow. I don't see a reason to be concerned

Edit: lots of math "experts" in this thread, Jesus
 
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ReBurn

Gold Member
I can't control those people sadly and that conversation.


I want to know that and how many companies have missed their executive compensation targets.
Executive compensation targets are typically very aggressive and designed to push people who get these bonuses beyond typical growth projections. They're typically not the only bonus compensation executives get. They're missed quite often.
 

onesvenus

Member
I didn't say Xbox overall underperformed. But according to their projections, Game Pass did not meet their desired growth target YOY.
That's not true. They didn't meet the growth percentage that gave a bonus to the executives. Usually the actual growth target is less than that.
And no, you didn't talk about Xbox but you were talking about the gaming division underperforming.
 

NickFire

Member
I still feel like the Take 2 guy must get fairly direct information on subs when discussing possible opportunities with MS. So I can't dismiss his estimate based just on this. There was a lot of media hype for GP after E3, so it's possible they grew at a crazy rate after June.

Admittedly though, a third possibility has now crossed my mind. Is it possible the Take 2 guy knew the number was closer to 20 than 30 all along, but wanted to lightly troll his friend when discussing why he is not keen on subscription access for new games?
 

phil_t98

#SonyToo
I was waiting to comment here so I can really add to the discussion

The projections are from 2019 docs, before covid, before halo delay, before chip shortages

They missed the target but they did grow. I don't see a reason to be concerned

Edit: lots of math "experts" in this thread, Jesus

When it comes to game pass on here there are so many experts, I ain’t sure why phil dont read the board to see what the experts here r say rather than the people who produce the actual numbers lol

i never get why so many people are so wanting game pass to fail. If you dont like it dont purchase it simple as that, as for the rest of if we enjoy what we get from it
 

Leyasu

Banned
If I read the paper correctly, they made projections for 2020 and 2021 in 2019. They overperformed 2020 and underperformed 2021. When you add the numbers up though, they pretty much exactly reached the two-year projection. I bet Satya and Phil are extremely concerned 🤭

OK I didn't read everything. If that was the case, then that should have been in the OP.
 

Topher

Gold Member
I have to ask, what do you think a projection is, other than "a target"? Because that's what they are.

This isn't a prediction. It is a metric by which the payout for executives is derived. The executives will get 82% payout for the performance of the Game Pass metric. This is a retrospective metric, not predictive analysis. So no, this target is not a projection at all.
 

Shut0wen

Member
Dont why they expected 48% seems alot but 37% is still great, especially since no ms exclusive games have came out in god knows how long then in December we have halo and forza horizon
 

IntentionalPun

Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
This isn't a prediction. It is a metric by which the payout for executives is derived. The executives will get 82% payout for the performance of the Game Pass metric. This is a retrospective metric, not predictive analysis. So no, this target is not a projection at all.
It's a goal that they work out with the board of directors/compensation committe. Their goal is always to increase their stock price, so these goals are based on that, like any other publicly traded company.

Honestly while there MAY BE some other "projection" number internally, I would personally doubt that.

Our Compensation Committee (and for Mr. Nadella, the independent members of our Board) granted PSAs in fiscal year 2019 that pay out based on specific pre-established, performance goals and strategic performance objectives tied to creating long-term shareholder value as well as our TSR performance relative to the S&P 500. Performance was measured over the three-fiscal year performance period ending June 30, 2021.

At most companies where a significant portion of your pay is bonus, getting a "100%" bonus is a "meets expectations." So some other internal "prediction" or not, these are more than likely what was expected.. as.. success, is expected lol Not that they aren't aggressive; but... MS is an aggressive company. If something doesn't have an aggressive goal, it's gonna get dropped.
 
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