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Xbox Series X Sales Potential is Being Underestimated, Analyst Believes; Suspects PS5 Will Have Sales Advantage

sonomamashine

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The Xbox Series X sales potential in the US is being underestimated, independent industry analyst Benji-Sales believes.

The video game analyst took to Twitter overnight to talk about the potential of Microsoft’s upcoming next-gen console and to share a very early sales forecast for both the Xbox Series X and PS5.

Benji believes that the Series X will be performing way better in the US than some might think, although the PS5 is still expected to have a sales advantage both globally and in the US. According to the analyst, people tend to forget how strong the Xbox brand is in the US.

“To be perfectly honest, the more I look at things the more I think people are underestimating the sales potential for Xbox next-gen in the US”, he writes on Twitter.

“I think it's going to perform a lot better in that market than some think (global will still favor PS5). Positioning themselves very well.”


He added, “As a SUUUUUUPER early forecast I still suspect PS5 has a sales advantage even in the US. But that doesn't mean next gen Xbox can’t be highly successful in its own right.”


Earlier this week we already covered a note from game research firm DFC Intelligence that stated that Microsoft’s console is likely to chip into Sony’s PS4 market share, but Sony’s next-gen console will remain the best-selling system due to the brand having a key advantage in software, consumer recognition and global distribution.

Right now, DFC does not anticipate “First to Worst Part 2.” However, we do think Microsoft will start to chip into the PlayStation 4 market share. However, much of this will depend on the strength of the offerings from Microsoft’s newly acquired studios.

 
D

Deleted member 774430

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It's ok. Xbox best hardware, PS5 best selling
That's already the reality since PS4 Pro / Xbox One X.

It will continue to be that way until Microsoft starts to pull out big budget exclusives for a global audience, not just US.

With 360 under Peter Moore's leadership they tried to change that and saw results especially in Europe, with Xbox One they completely went backwards.
 
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PocoJoe

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Is this analyst living in a barrel, or is this about Americans whom dont know shit about shit?

I mean, isnt it universal fact since XBOX OG that xbox have always been strong at US? And now he talks like it isn't so obvious thing?

Even this gen clearly shows it that on US xbox vs ps4 is much more equal battle than on rest of the world, so why is he talking about it like it is some kind of secret?

Like who is underestimating xsex sales potential on US? Of course it sells there like all the xboxes.

Rest of the world is more or less playstation/nintendo land, and from those playstation is more equally popular all around while nintendo have their hot spots like japan.

If there should be talk about underestimating it should be about PS5 + this spec war. People are underestimating PS5 as brand and look specs too closely, specs wont matter much at all in the end if console delivers good games.

I would estimate that Xsex sells well on US, maybe even better than PS5 if they have the same price, if PS5 is cheaper then it will sell more.

For rest of the world = PS5 will be the clear winner.

Just looking by this gen the situation is on many areas: PS4 is clear leader, xbone is mainly second system or fifa/minecraft console.

So it is much harder to turn this situation into huge sales for xbox, while ps5 is already on the top so they will be in good position unless they fuck up (games).

Here at Finland Playstation is clearly the market leader, on supermarkets/game stores that I have been visiting for last 4 years, 70-80% of sold games on shelves are for ps4, rest are shared by xbone/switch. I know one person that owns xbone. He bought xbone(the digital only) after it got under 100e and maybe 30-50 people whom own ps4.

It is what it is, xbox comes as the underdog but at least this gen will be closer fight unless they fuck something up badly
 

slade

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So, doing better in its chief territory but still not enough to overtake PlayStation.

I'll make a prediction right now. Depending on how it's priced, the XSX will either do the same as the Xbox One did this Gen or it will do much worse. It won't reach the highs of the 360 era.
 

Aidah

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He isn't actually an analyst, he's not doing it as a profession. He just has some access to data somehow and does it as a hobby.

Anyway, I think it's pretty clear that Xbox has a much better offering than last time, but at the same time they are coming from a position of unpopularity, where Xbox One followed a hugely popular 360 (in the US). Overall I think it's not a bad bet to say they'll do better this time in the US, but it's possible that they'll just maintain the same level of popularity they have now. Xbox One isn't actually doing badly in the US, it's probably more than half its total success, and the territory is the reason why Xbox still exists.
 
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darkinstinct

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Always, if Sony manages to put the PS5 at 399$, it's over.
Microsoft has a better chance of that happening, because they can source lower quality NAND for their SSD, don't need DRAM for their SSD, don't have ESRAM on their APU to make up for lack of overall memory bandwidth, don't build haptic feedback into their controller, don't build batteries into their controller, don't build touchpads into their controller. The existence of SRAM on the PS5 APU means it probably will be just as big an APU, around 350 to 360 mm^2. That means it's the same cost as the XSX APU. With everything else being the same or cheaper on XSX. Sony has a problem.
 

Shin

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He's reiterating current sales and projecting it as future ones.
Looking at the US sales data Xbox/PS was rather close, it's world wide where they lost most ground (or PS is being favored).
I keep repeating this, Xbox won't win world wide if they can't get 2nd and 3rd party Japanese developers on board that find the platform too risky.
GamePass might be the missing link and a well thought out console that changes it slowly over the course of time, it will do better but you don't need to be an analyst to figure that one out.
 
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Matt_Fox

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This is from the "well, duh!" school of analysis.

Every Gaffer on this site would say the same thing. It might have been more interesting if he'd actually put some numbers to his sales numbers!
 
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Deleted member 774430

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This is from the "well, duh!" school of analysis.

Every Gaffer on this site would say the same thing. It might have been more interesting if he'd actually put some numbers to his sales numbers!
The fun part is that at no point Xbox One has actually surpassed PS4's lifetime sales in US, and it don't think it has ever been the best selling console for a single month. (always behind PS4 and/or Switch)

So even there, yes it's close but there should be a dominant lead for Xbox considering they almost care only about that region.

I laugh when people say Xbox One was still a success: it is not the best selling console in its best market and was kind of a disaster in the rest of the world.
 
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sonomamashine

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And MS at $299? What’s happening then?

I think will both be $499.
You mean Series S ?
It will do some damage but people would still like a playstation at 399$, it would be wiser if Sony prices the PS5 in between.
But like you said it will most likely be
Series S : 399$
PS5 : 449$
Serie X : 499$
 
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Windows-PC

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Always, if Sony manages to put the PS5 at 399$, it's over.
If Sony manages to sell the PS5 for $399,95 than Microsoft will sell the XBox Series X for $399,95 because the BOM is almost identical if I remember correctly. Microsoft will do whatever it takes to match Sony's price!

But personally I still highly believe that the PS5 and the XBox Series X will be both $499,95 Dollars.
 
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Mendou

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You mean Series S ?
It will do some damage but people would still like a playstation at 399$, it would be wiser if Sony prices the PS5 in between.
But like you said it will most likely be
Series S : 399$
PS5 : 449$
Serie X : 499$
Pay 11% more for 20-30% better performance depending on ray-traced games. That's a steal.
 
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If Sony manages to sell the PS5 for $399,95 than Microsoft will sell the XBox Series X for $399,95 because the BOM is almost identical if I remember correctly. Microsoft will do whatever it takes to match Sony's price!

But personally I still highly believe that the PS5 and the XBox Series X will be both $499,95 Dollars.
Do you have a source for the BOM costs? I have to say this sounds very unlikely, but what do I know.. 🙂
 
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LordKasual

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Yeah, no. If Halo was as powerful a series as it was during the Halo 1-3 era, then Halo Infinite WOULD be the game changing monster that it's supposed to be. Unfortunately the series has been chasing itself literally ever since 3 ended and has never (and likely will never) catch itself again.

Currently, the Xbox sales pitch is "we're stronger than the PS5".

But that didn't even help them during its first gen, going against the PS2.


I don't really think people are underestimating Xbox's sales potential.

The best Xbox console IMO was 360, it had a decent library of games, but even that console was tainted by RROD. The one after it played second fiddle to PS4 its entire life and had to release a new console to compete again.
 
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DonkeyKong

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Even if the PS5 turns out to be "weaker hardware" I would be surprised if the PS5 will did'nt outsell the Series X worldwide, that's just the way it is at the moment, i image the Series X will do very well as it looks like a great bit of kit but not enough to topple the PS5
 

Alphagear

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And MS at $299? What’s happening then?

I think will both be $499.
MS at $299? You mean the series X? If you're refering to the Lockhart then that will do more damage than good for the series X. Lets not forget MS biggest issue isn't hardware but lack of software. Sony and Nintendo don't have this issue. For me this guarantees me buying a Nintendo and Sony console every generation irrespective of the hardware. Why can't some people accept that outside USA and UK , MS has no chance. PS brand loyalty too strong and rightly so.
 
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icebomb

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Of course PS5 will sell better, mainly because of Pc ports and xCloud. I guess that just this gives Sony a 20% sales advantage. Another 5-10% are the brand fanboys.

But hardware sales are obviously not the most important thing for Microsoft (more for fanboys) since you don't make money with the hardware. It's about customers and services.
 

Stuart360

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Outside of possibly the US and UK, i dont think anyone believes XSX will outsell PS5, even Microsoft themselves. I think if you offered them 60-70mil sales now, they would take it, and it would be a nice little rebound from the XB1, and thats what they are hoping for imo. PS5 will still sell 100+mil in the end though.
Now if XSX brings the games next gen, and has a gen full of good PR, Xbox 5 vs PS6 could be very interesting though.
 

martino

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Underunestimed by who ?

if they have the best and also the cheapest system...it can only reduce this gen dominance.
exclusives don't sell in 100M they lock 1/3 of actual user being generous here.

Since when a retail employee become sales analyst?
lol and game developer are seen as game engine architect when it goes your ways. (not saying they are wrong...but a little reminder on how you criticism work)
 
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TheBreezyBB

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U.S.A, a place where woke shit is the shit! Xbox fits perfectly. /JK


The playstation brand loyalty is key for sales, Also the price will not make much difference if they are both 499$
 

ZywyPL

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the same thing about Intel vs AMD, look how it shifted.
How? Because as far as I know Intel cant keep up with the production for quite some time, and their profit (not revenue, pure profit) is higher than never.
 

NeoIkaruGAF

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PlayStation having a sales advantage? Why, I’ll never.

XBox could literally be twice as powerful in every aspect for $50 more and you’d still see PS leading the race by far in Europe. The brand is just that strong.
 

OneShotThrill

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Of course PS5 will sell better, mainly because of Pc ports and xCloud. I guess that just this gives Sony a 20% sales advantage. Another 5-10% are the brand fanboys.

But hardware sales are obviously not the most important thing for Microsoft (more for fanboys) since you don't make money with the hardware. It's about customers and services.
Anything is important to MS at this point. Services arent at that point yet. Youre not moving services as proficient without moving boxes.