• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Xbox Series X Sales Potential is Being Underestimated, Analyst Believes; Suspects PS5 Will Have Sales Advantage

Shin

Member
Feb 4, 2013
5,404
3,784
895
They said the same thing about Intel vs AMD, look how it shifted.
I'm realistic, AMD made great strides but it's 7nm vs 14nm so I can't rejoice when they are barely equal on performance.
AMD needs more than that with Zen 3-5 because if not and when Intel gets to 7nm we might go back to how it was before and the % gained could be taken back.
The same situation applies to Xbox/PlayStation also, they need to be on top of their game time and again because consumer loyalty accounts for nothing as we have seen.
 

OneShotThrill

Member
Sep 28, 2019
117
174
255
I'm realistic, AMD made great strides but it's 7nm vs 14nm so I can't rejoice when they are barely equal on performance.
AMD needs more than that with Zen 3-5 because if not and when Intel gets to 7nm we might go back to how it was before and the % gained could be taken back.
The same situation applies to Xbox/PlayStation also, they need to be on top of their game time and again because consumer loyalty accounts for nothing as we have seen.
Consumers should never be loyal to a brand. The product speaks. The money follows. Competition is good
 

Goliathy

Banned
Mar 18, 2020
368
1,073
280
So, doing better in its chief territory but still not enough to overtake PlayStation.

I'll make a prediction right now. Depending on how it's priced, the XSX will either do the same as the Xbox One did this Gen or it will do much worse. It won't reach the highs of the 360 era.
Which is the best outcome, we got so many good things, multigenerational BC, play anywhere, game pass, smart delivery.
Continue
 

Shin

Member
Feb 4, 2013
5,404
3,784
895
Speaking of sales, I expect a refresh will happen sometime in 2023 looking at the road-map below.
5nm is a full node from 7nm according to TSMC, both the GPU+CPU will likely use 5nm (used by Apple in 2020, by that time it will be improved and mature).
I expect that refresh will have Wi-Fi AX and some other tidbits they had to cut to save costs on - I'm now a sales analyst too, praise me. :messenger_smirking:

 

Bankai

Member
Jul 14, 2015
345
445
425
Always, if Sony manages to put the PS5 at 399$, it's over.
That's just not true. Sony will do just fine, even if they price the PS5 higher than Xbox Series X.

A lot of people are invested in the PS ecosystem now + their franchises, that goes a long way.


Oops, I misread your comment. sorry! I agree with you: with the PS5 @399 and XboxSEX @499 MS is gonna have a tough time.
 
Last edited:
  • Fire
Reactions: sonomamashine
Oct 7, 2019
414
510
370
No, it's not. Here in Europe, people are so dumb they will buy a polished piece of crap with "PS5" written on it that is 200 euros more expensive than the Series X.
Well yeah, to me the PS5 would easily be worth 200 euros more since it plays Playstation exclusives, so. Guess I'm a stupid European 😎😉
 
  • Like
Reactions: Slothbeing1209

T-Cake

Member
May 28, 2019
263
214
285
I wonder how this new gen will affect physical disc sales. When you see how fluid Quick Resume is for digital titles, who's going to want to faff about swapping BD-ROMs?
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Mendou

icebomb

Banned
Mar 22, 2020
29
154
140
Anything is important to MS at this point. Services arent at that point yet. Youre not moving services as proficient without moving boxes.
If hardware sales were that important, they wouldn't do Pc ports and they wouldn't push xCloud and Pc Game Pass. They are setting up for a future without consoles and Sony will do so too. Horizon Zero Dawn is just the beginning.
 

OneShotThrill

Member
Sep 28, 2019
117
174
255
If hardware sales were that important, they wouldn't do Pc ports and they wouldn't push xCloud and Pc Game Pass. They are setting up for a future without consoles and Sony will do so too. Horizon Zero Dawn is just the beginning.
If you think MS dosent give a shit about moving consoles after all the specs they just packed into the Series X, then your delusional. Internet speeds are nowhere near the level at which need them. YEARS down the line ..possibly. Now..not happening. Theyre just chasing more revenue. Let the Series X only sell 5 million units and see what happens to the Xbox division at MS.
 

ethomaz

Member
Mar 19, 2013
29,993
12,123
980
37
Brazil
Since half of GAF became armchair developers and hardware engineers.
I don’t see any published article calling half of GAFers developers or hardware engineers 😂

It is not a criticism to Benji as he never called him as sales analyst.

He is a (if I’m not getting the retail wrong) a Best Buy’s employee that has access to regional sales data.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Neo_game

Monsterkillah

Member
Aug 12, 2018
2,759
3,869
535
Xbox can win in US

Nintendo can win in Japan

But goodluck trying to beat Sony in Europe
 
Last edited:
Oct 7, 2019
414
510
370
I wonder how this new gen will affect physical disc sales. When you see how fluid Quick Resume is for digital titles, who's going to want to faff about swapping BD-ROMs?
I am 🙂 - I would never buy a download if there's a physical release. Besides, I only play one game at a time anyway.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T-Cake

hunthunt

Member
Mar 22, 2019
742
1,306
360
Chile
Im not an expert, but we all know that Xbox doesn't exist outside USA and UK so how is this news.

Im expecting 120 million sales for Ps5 and 60 for Xbox

everyone wins.
 

Journey

Member
Aug 18, 2014
2,183
1,138
540
Considering where they are today after the horrible Xbox One debacle, it's no secret that Xbox Series X will position itself much better against the PS5, even though we all know you can't just turn it all around so quickly, but I can see a dent being done similar to what Xbox 360 did. Xbox barely hit 25M while PS2 hit over a 100M, the very next generation appeared to be locked for Sony until MS released the 360 and went neck and neck despite the RROD fiasco.

We know today where the power lies, but more importantly is going to be the price. If MS is able to price the Xbox Series X competitively or ever lower than the PS5 (Doubtful) then we could have some serious competition, after all, they now have 16 studios ready to pump out games that you can't play on a PS5 and possibly or more likely rather than not, better performing 3rd party releases which is what the mass goes out to buy
 
  • Like
Reactions: CatLady

SlimySnake

Member
Feb 5, 2013
4,889
3,261
690
Having Xbox Infinite as a launch title is indeed huge, but making it cross gen and available on PC literally defeats the purpose of a launch title. Why would it sell consoles when you can already play it on your console or if you dont have an older console, you can play it without buying a console on PC.

Putting it on gamepass on day one is a terrible idea. You are devaluing your biggest title by giving it away for a dollar, ten dollars max.

Halo Infinite should've been scrapped and turned into a next gen only title that took full advantage of the ssd and the cpu instead of just the gpu to run the same last gen game with more pixels. Their main job with this title is to get xbox 360 owners to buy a Series X after skipping a gen and they are hell bent on doing the opposite.
 
  • Thoughtful
Reactions: Neo_game

Sosokrates

Member
Feb 22, 2017
2,315
1,431
475
Yes, xbox next gen will sell as much or sell more in the usa.

Ms have been one step in front of playstation in marketing.

I think in America xboxs "power your dreams" "12 TFLOPS" "The worlds most powerful console" will do better then sony focusing on speed.
Also it will be interesting to see if ms say there console is the fastest, it become a legal and marketing grey area, because there parts of the xsx which are faster, and ms may have things that load faster at a software level, so sony couldn't sue them.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CatLady

Psykodad

Member
Apr 9, 2018
2,632
3,822
405
You know what's being underestimated?

The economical effects due to corona. MS is gonna have a mountain to climb when they sell their console at a higher price than Sony.
How many people haven't lost their jobs already, or companies that went bust?
 
  • Like
Reactions: JTCx

Sosokrates

Member
Feb 22, 2017
2,315
1,431
475
After Halo 5 I'm cautious at best about Halo Infinite
Its funny, halo 5 is actually my favourite one, its buttery smooth 60fps 4k on my 1X, it feels great to play, it has interesting and diverse environments, the enemies are varied and move more the most enemies do.
However I understand why halo purists dont like it, as it does change aspects from the originals.
But theres really not anything like it this gen the only other sci fi fps this gen is killzone shadow fall which is not as good.

So its clear that 343 are a caperble dev, but lost the roots of halo and tried to chase other trends (a direction likely heavily influenced by xbox management at the time).
Now xbox is in a different place and 343 have said they want to go back to halos roots, So I expect infinite will be less about co op play and fast combat and more about large environments, alien worlds and story.
 

Sosokrates

Member
Feb 22, 2017
2,315
1,431
475
You know what's being underestimated?

The economical effects due to corona. MS is gonna have a mountain to climb when they sell their console at a higher price than Sony.
How many people haven't lost their jobs already, or companies that went bust?
The price difference is not going to be drastic.

Bloomberger reported BOM of PS5 is $450, and thats not even counting packaging, shipping and retailer cut. They will probably break even @ $479
The xsx has been reported at a bit more then the PS5, but not by much, so I think the XSX will be $499. Sony may take a hit and go with $449, and if ms dont have Lockhart I think they will match sonys price, unless the xsx has a noticeable difference in digital foundrys.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CatLady

Goliathy

Banned
Mar 18, 2020
368
1,073
280
You know what's being underestimated?

The economical effects due to corona. MS is gonna have a mountain to climb when they sell their console at a higher price than Sony.
How many people haven't lost their jobs already, or companies that went bust?



Welp.
To be fair, early adopter, so people are going to be a nextgen console at launch aren’t really affected by that anyway. Highly skilled workers that can easily work from home. Not your typical waitress or anything.

Anyway, we will see. Maybe this is when Microsoft will release the Series S then? Don’t have much money? Get series S for best graphics @1080p.
Want the best graphics in 4K? Get series X.
 

Son_of_Zardoz

Member
May 15, 2017
510
412
320
Having Xbox Infinite as a launch title is indeed huge, but making it cross gen and available on PC literally defeats the purpose of a launch title. Why would it sell consoles when you can already play it on your console or if you dont have an older console, you can play it without buying a console on PC.

Putting it on gamepass on day one is a terrible idea. You are devaluing your biggest title by giving it away for a dollar, ten dollars max.

Halo Infinite should've been scrapped and turned into a next gen only title that took full advantage of the ssd and the cpu instead of just the gpu to run the same last gen game with more pixels. Their main job with this title is to get xbox 360 owners to buy a Series X after skipping a gen and they are hell bent on doing the opposite.
Not necessarily. I didn't really think about it until the other day but being able to launch a new console where the buyer gets to try all of the first party games right out of the box is seriously enticing (figuring MS will have a few other first party launch titles). It's not gonna make a difference for those who are already set to buy either one but if you're on the fence (even if it's just deciding which to buy first) that's a nice lure.

Its funny, halo 5 is actually my favourite one, its buttery smooth 60fps 4k on my 1X, it feels great to play, it has interesting and diverse environments, the enemies are varied and move more the most enemies do.
However I understand why halo purists dont like it, as it does change aspects from the originals.
But theres really not anything like it this gen the only other sci fi fps this gen is killzone shadow fall which is not as good.

So its clear that 343 are a caperble dev, but lost the roots of halo and tried to chase other trends (a direction likely heavily influenced by xbox management at the time).
Now xbox is in a different place and 343 have said they want to go back to halos roots, So I expect infinite will be less about co op play and fast combat and more about large environments, alien worlds and story.
I loved Halo 5, really only disliked some aspects of the campaign (mainly the repeating warden fights) but outside of that its my favorite Halo of them all. I just hope they keep Warzone because that's what brought me back into playing the multiplayer. They absolutely nailed the controls and movement.


---

But file the basic idea behind OP under "No shit." I think MS will do much better this gen but there's no way they catch Sony world-wide and I don't think they will be upset if they don't.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: CatLady

diffusionx

Member
Feb 25, 2006
9,003
1,402
1,490
Regarding Halo Infinite, it's not just important to Xbox Series X, it's important to their PC initiative, GamePass, and really everything. If it is a great game, then it legitimizes their entire strategy as people would be playing it across devices. It would sell lots of XSX going forward, especially to people who don't want a PC and didn't buy a One.

If Halo Infinite is a turd like 343's other games, then MS should just pack it up and spend the Xbox money on Office 365 instead.
 
  • Praise the Sun
Reactions: Goliathy

Psykodad

Member
Apr 9, 2018
2,632
3,822
405
The price difference is not going to be drastic.

Bloomberger reported BOM of PS5 is $450, and thats not even counting packaging, shipping and retailer cut. They will probably break even @ $479
The xsx has been reported at a bit more then the PS5, but not by much, so I think the XSX will be $499. Sony may take a hit and go with $449, and if ms dont have Lockhart I think they will match sonys price, unless the xsx has a noticeable difference in digital foundrys.
Sony isn't stupid though, I think they'll aim for a €100 difference, like many suspect.
They want a swift transition going into next-gen, so them going €399 and XSX €499 is pretty realistic.



Welp.
To be fair, early adopter, so people are going to be a nextgen console at launch aren’t really affected by that anyway. Highly skilled workers that can easily work from home. Not your typical waitress or anything.

Anyway, we will see. Maybe this is when Microsoft will release the Series S then? Don’t have much money? Get series S for best graphics @1080p.
Want the best graphics in 4K? Get series X.
I've said it before and even more so now, if Series S exist, PS5 seems like the best deal. Presumably right in the middle with power and price and solid exclusive titles on top of it.
MS might have invested in Studios, Sony WWS output has been nailing it for at least 2 gens now, with a very strong first half of 2020 as well.
 

icebomb

Banned
Mar 22, 2020
29
154
140
If you think MS dosent give a shit about moving consoles after all the specs they just packed into the Series X, then your delusional. Internet speeds are nowhere near the level at which need them. YEARS down the line ..possibly. Now..not happening. Theyre just chasing more revenue. Let the Series X only sell 5 million units and see what happens to the Xbox division at MS.
Of course they want and have to sell consoles, but it's not their number 1 priority to beat Sony at it. For Sony it is number 1 priority, for now.
 

Sosokrates

Member
Feb 22, 2017
2,315
1,431
475
Sony isn't stupid though, I think they'll aim for a €100 difference, like many suspect.
They want a swift transition going into next-gen, so them going €399 and XSX €499 is pretty realistic.


I've said it before and even more so now, if Series S exist, PS5 seems like the best deal. Presumably right in the middle with power and price and solid exclusive titles on top of it.
MS might have invested in Studios, Sony WWS output has been nailing it for at least 2 gens now, with a very strong first half of 2020 as well.
Yes, they are nit stupid but they cant just swallow a $80 loss.
 

Psykodad

Member
Apr 9, 2018
2,632
3,822
405
Yes, they are nit stupid but they cant just swallow a $80 loss.
Assuming those reports are true and MS doesn't have their own production issues due to corona.

It's anyone's guess right now.
Besides, Sony sold PS3 at quite a loss as well.
 
Last edited:

Genx3

Member
Jun 23, 2019
108
95
215
XSX has a chance in the U.S., UK and Latin America where it has done well in the past.
Mainland Europe will be an uphill battle.
Japan will ignore Xbox.
 

Genx3

Member
Jun 23, 2019
108
95
215
Sony isn't stupid though, I think they'll aim for a €100 difference, like many suspect.
They want a swift transition going into next-gen, so them going €399 and XSX €499 is pretty realistic.


I've said it before and even more so now, if Series S exist, PS5 seems like the best deal. Presumably right in the middle with power and price and solid exclusive titles on top of it.
MS might have invested in Studios, Sony WWS output has been nailing it for at least 2 gens now, with a very strong first half of 2020 as well.
Nothing about the PS5 looks cheap. I wouldn't be surprised if both the XSX and PS5 are $600.
If they launch at $500 then we're lucky.
 

KAOS

Member
Jun 6, 2004
1,918
91
1,425
Did the Xbox 360 usher in gaming's longest gen??? For what it's worth the XsX might have that same potential! Eventhough midgen refresh takes might challenge that a bit. If the tech is as good as it can be we might be looking a longer gen than this one!
 

SLB1904

Member
Oct 24, 2017
757
891
435
There isnt competition. I hope sony has a good looking box. Series x is ugly as sin.
 

Sosokrates

Member
Feb 22, 2017
2,315
1,431
475
Assuming those reports are true and MS doesn't have their own production issues due to corona.

It's anyone's guess right now.
Besides, Sony sold PS3 at quite a loss as well.
Yes, but we can look at things we know which will give the best guess.
Xsx and ps5 are going to have similar BOMs based on there specs, the SoC on the XSX is going to cost a bit more, the rams will cost the same, the ssd in the ps5 will cost a bit more as will its cooling.
 

Goliathy

Banned
Mar 18, 2020
368
1,073
280
Wccftech is actually banned as a source on a lot of tech boards and subreddits. They will report on absolutely anything and aren't above manipulating data/simply making shit up if they think it will get them clicks.
$499 is a realistic price though
 

Goliathy

Banned
Mar 18, 2020
368
1,073
280
$399 in 2013 are $443 today.
The consoles were very underpowered 2013, just look at the awful CPU, Not even ssd.

Now we have a extremely fast and VERY EXPENSIVE HIGH END SSD and even a much better CPU.

How are you guys expecting the console to be even CHEAPER now?!
 

Windows-PC

Neo Member
Mar 14, 2020
162
456
205
Wccftech is actually banned as a source on a lot of tech boards and subreddits. They will report on absolutely anything and aren't above manipulating data/simply making shit up if they think it will get them clicks.
Sorry, I didn't know that. Thanks for letting me know :)