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ZhungeEX: PS4 and XBO 2020 Jan sales considerably lower than 360 and PS3 sales in Jan 2013. Switch remains steady.

Dec 27, 2019
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Sharp drop for PS4 and XBO in January while Switch remains flat with a single digit difference in YOY without any major release like last year NSMBUD and Smash Ultimate December effect.

My NPD prediction sales
NSW - 6.7M
PS4 - 2.6M
XBO - 1.5M
PS5 - 2.2M
XSX - 2.8M
 

EHuntingon

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Jul 30, 2013
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I feel like 2019 wasn’t super amazing, and people just don’t have the impetus to grab a current gen console and explore the catalog. The volume of major, AAA games seems a lot smaller this generation. I mean, anecdotally, the casual gamers I know don’t really have that much excitement for the PS4 or XB1 library. At the end of the PS3 lifecycle, I remember people buying PS3 slims and God of War, and Uncharted, and Last of Us. This time, those same people aren’t talking about Red Dead, Uncharted, or Call of Duty.
 
Dec 27, 2019
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Still baffled by Nintendo action for not releasing big game like Super Mario 3D World Deluxe edition in January instead of niche game like TMS.
 

fallingdove

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Dec 8, 2011
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Is the assertion that the switch is the only console that is doing well? Are we purposely ignoring that:

- the switch is on year 3
- Xbox one and PS4 are on year 7
- the Switch cannibalized the sales of Nintendo’s wildly successful handheld
- this was the first generation that had a mid gen upgrade
- Sony and Microsoft announced their next gen efforts much earlier than with the last go-around
- PC has become an extremely compelling alternative to console
- The mobile and GaaS markets have accelerated

If analysts weren’t anticipating the current states of the PS4/Xbox One/Switch, they must have fallen asleep at the wheel.
 

FStubbs

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Aug 29, 2010
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The 3DS was a wildly successful handheld? Really?

As of 2 years ago (when the Switch had completed its 1st year), the 3DS had eeked its way to just about 70 million sold in 7 years. I think you have the 3DS confused with the DS.

The PS4 is about 100 million, so if the 3DS was wildly successful, the PS4 is stratospheric.

For a comparison, the Switch is about 44 million after 3 years. It's on pace to beat the 3DS.
 
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PKM

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Oct 11, 2017
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At this point..
Everyone knows a new system is coming.
And I'm at the point where even I have 5 PS4's...
2 pro's hooked up, one that sounds like a jet engine, 2 non-pros..
I can always snag a used one for like $75 on my local FB swap page.

Who's running out to buy a new console?
 
Nov 22, 2013
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i feel like people exaggerate PS4’s decline. I actually reject the idea PS4 sales will start falling sharply after PS5.

This might end up being PS4’s biggest year yet. Cyberpunk might sell as much as Red Dead Redemption 2. TLOU is hot cakes. FF7 Remake is a game people been sucking in back alleys for. PS5 release basically means PS4 price drop. I dont think Sony realize how much the 300$ price is holding the PS4 back.
 

siekro1983

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Jan 31, 2020
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switch is down in terms of revenue so it sold a good amount less then last year, and it has 199$ SKU, it's all downhill from here. this year ps4 will make a nice gap in terms of overall units sold.
 
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Nov 13, 2016
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It feels like we've been anticipating next gen for like two years now. Both MS and Sony don't have much going on in terms of big new releases. MS just got none and Sony's been showing off the same games for years now. A permanent price drop would help too. I wouldn't be surprised if people aren't buying them as much anymore.
 
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Jul 6, 2015
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Both companies have announced BC, I'd imagine most people aren't gonna waste money on a PS4/X1 when they can just get a next gen console that's releasing this year that plays the entire current gen library.
 
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Rock And Roll

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Sep 28, 2014
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The 3DS was a wildly successful handheld? Really?

As of 2 years ago (when the Switch had completed its 1st year), the 3DS had eeked its way to just about 70 million sold in 7 years. I think you have the 3DS confused with the DS.

The PS4 is about 100 million, so if the 3DS was wildly successful, the PS4 is stratospheric.

For a comparison, the Switch is about 44 million after 3 years. It's on pace to beat the 3DS.
70 million isn't successful anymore? Maybe it seems that way because it didn't sell as much as previous Nintendo handhelds, but mobile gaming wasn't around back then taking a big part of Nintendo's market.
 
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GV82

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Jun 27, 2019
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No Shit


- Games getting Delayed left right & Centre

- People waiting on next Gen because they thought it was going to be announced in jan/feb (ps5) with rumours of a higher price tag
I’d assume some people may be keeping back some of their gaming money towards the higher cost of the console

- Rumours of backwards compatibility with previous gens that may or maynot be enhanced with patches for old games much like the Xbox One X does, which is a different beast compared to what previous gen offered out of the gate again all we know is rumours but people are just waiting to see what happens

- more people buying buying Switches

- Games coming to gamepass particulary newish ones, so some people are orepared to wait for that, or EA Access/PSNow etc

- Other Factors which I may have forgot stuff like people waiting more on sales rather than buying at full price, a small portion who plan to or may have already made the jump to P.C gaming instead as theres more rumours & actual genuine games from ps4/Xbox coming to pc also
 
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mcjmetroid

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Feb 11, 2019
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He always came off like a twat on resetera. One of those "Insiders" who responds one with one word or cryptic answers to things as if he's so god damn busy with other shit all the time...
That site was full of them.

Also this comparison is absolute horseshit and not the least bit interesting. Someone is hungry for attention and needs social media attention.
 
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siekro1983

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Jan 31, 2020
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He always came off like a twat on resetera. One of those "Insiders" who responds one with one word or cryptic answers to things as if he's so god damn busy with other shit all the time...
That site was full of them.

Also this comparison is absolute horseshit and not the least bit interesting. Someone is hungry for attention and needs social media attention.
Exactly. 360/ps3 sold 480k 2013. so if ps4/xbox sold 350k that would be a pretty good result imo.
 

Shin

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Feb 4, 2013
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Switch is quite the success story, hopefully Nintendo follows up properly and Wii U isn't repeated when the time comes.
Most amazing thing IMO is that people call it weak and what's not, yet it can run practically every game but then on the go.
I think it's quite a feat. to pull, you sacrifice somethings but you gain a whole new experience altogether, ideal system probably to a vast market and it's success is showing just that.
To top it off you have exclusives and Nintendo's own IP's, recipe for success and well deserved.
 

Panajev2001a

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Jun 7, 2004
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The 3DS was a wildly successful handheld? Really?

As of 2 years ago (when the Switch had completed its 1st year), the 3DS had eeked its way to just about 70 million sold in 7 years. I think you have the 3DS confused with the DS.

The PS4 is about 100 million, so if the 3DS was wildly successful, the PS4 is stratospheric.

For a comparison, the Switch is about 44 million after 3 years. It's on pace to beat the 3DS.
Sure, it is going to do perhaps better than Wii U + 3DS, well not yet at least, but you also need to match it against Wii + DS or GCN + GBA, etc...

Nintendo know it too, hence the Switch Lite.
 

Branthrax

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Oct 24, 2017
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Both new consoles will struggle again in November. The markets changing, not many people want to drop $500 on a system. Switch will win Q4 again while the PC and mobile market continue to rabidly expand.
 
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HeresJohnny

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Mar 14, 2018
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It's a combination of them charging too much money for old hardware and trying to make a generation go on longer than it's viable for. For generations, a 5 year cycle was acceptable, but somehow, they got it in their heads last generation that they were going to make it last longer.
 

siekro1983

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Jan 31, 2020
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Both new consoles will struggle again in November. The markets changing, not many people want to drop $500 on a system. Switch will win Q4 again while the PC and mobile market continue to rabidly expand.
LOL ps4 and xbone have sold over 60 milion in the US. the market is saturated by now. people buy these consoles for the same games. if there is supply switch will get smoked Q4. ps4 needs to be 199$ as well. switch got a massive boost last year because of the 199$ model, and pokemon. this year will see big declines.
 
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KungFucius

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Jul 16, 2008
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Is the assertion that the switch is the only console that is doing well? Are we purposely ignoring that:

- the switch is on year 3
- Xbox one and PS4 are on year 7
- the Switch cannibalized the sales of Nintendo’s wildly successful handheld
- this was the first generation that had a mid gen upgrade
- Sony and Microsoft announced their next gen efforts much earlier than with the last go-around
- PC has become an extremely compelling alternative to console
- The mobile and GaaS markets have accelerated

If analysts weren’t anticipating the current states of the PS4/Xbox One/Switch, they must have fallen asleep at the wheel.

No. The key point is that the decline in sales of current gen in their final year of being the systems of record are lower than the equivalent console sales last gen and that is worthy of mentioning as a starter for speculation. This could mean that more people who are in the market for a console (Sony or MS) are waiting for next gen, or that this gen is petering out differently than the last one for some other reason. Of course all those things play into it as well as some unknowns. The switch might be competing in this part of the cycle since the others are not as versatile and not much cheaper. The WiiU was newer in 2013 and gave very few a reason to buy it over a cheaper 360 or PS3.

Who buys a system at the end of the cycle? Is it just people who can finally afford it when they hit a sweet spot on price? Is it gamers on the other system or PC that want to play all the exclusives? Is it people replacing units or buying ones for another room? Is it recent divorcees who need to make sure the kid is entertained when he spends the weekend in their shitty apartment?
 
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Dec 27, 2019
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LOL ps4 and xbone have sold over 60 milion in the US. the market is saturated by now. people buy these consoles for the same games. if there is supply switch will get smoked Q4. ps4 needs to be 199$ as well. switch got a massive boost last year because of the 199$ model, and pokemon. this year will see big declines.

He also stated that prediction with no price drop in mind.

Big declines 🤭😁
 
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siekro1983

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Jan 31, 2020
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He also stated that prediction with no price drop in mind.

Big declines 🤭😁
You'll see soon enough. It's already down this year compared to last year with 199$ SKU which is massive and the only reason switch didn't see declines last year. this year it won't have a 199$ lite model launching with pokemon around the corner. plus new hot consoles are coming out, they just need stock
 
Dec 27, 2019
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You'll see soon enough. It's already down this year compared to last year with 199$ SKU which is massive and the only reason switch didn't see declines last year. this year it won't have a 199$ lite model launching with pokemon around the corner. plus new hot consoles are coming out, they just need stock
You need to take a look at this year January lineup vs last year too.

-Smash effect in 2019
-NSMBUD the potential 10 million seller was released in Jan 2019

VS

-TMS the niche seller 😁😂🤣
 

mejin

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Oct 18, 2012
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Both new consoles will struggle again in November. The markets changing, not many people want to drop $500 on a system. Switch will win Q4 again while the PC and mobile market continue to rabidly expand.
they will sell what they'll offer just like any launch lol